Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[GreyJoy]

PC Taney also has 5inch guns if i remeber correctly... One of those PC/PG that are more like a battleship than an escort ship

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but IIRC Taney is one of the few truly long-range escorts you have available in the early game. IMO she should be earmarked for convoy duty between the US West Coast and Oz, not making suicide recon runs. PT Boats are good for the latter.

Maybe. The KB was at the extreme range for PTs and I've had my share of them turn around and come back, or not go in a high air threat enviro. I wanted to know if I had 5 or 6 fleet cariers there. I thought it was a good risk. And Kaga took a hit and got fires which a PT would not have accomplished.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but IIRC Taney is one of the few truly long-range escorts you have available in the early game. IMO she should be earmarked for convoy duty between the US West Coast and Oz, not making suicide recon runs. PT Boats are good for the latter.

Addendum: I'm not planning on doing convoys between the WC and Oz unless I'm forced to by loss of western Australia. My thoughts on this are found in multiple places in the archives. I believe in using off-map to the max.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

PC Taney also has 5inch guns if i remeber correctly... One of those PC/PG that are more like a battleship than an escort ship

So Kaga found out. And she's not dead yet. May be soon, but she's that Escort TF there in the screenshot. I'd say ten days in would see her right if she makes port.

[Bullwinkle58]

Mike is traveling this week, so we won't get any turns in until Friday or the weekend. I'm using the time to really look at China. Have four possible macro strategies, each with different pros and cons, each with different levels of skill required to pull off.

Mulling.

For those interested I call them:

1) MLR
2) Atomization
3) Evacuation
3a) Evacuation and activation

Rocky has top-lined comments, but I've asked him not to get into the weeds on numbers or such; I need to learn to do this on my own. His initial comments tell me I need to dig more into base forces and their devices, and to look more at HQ structures in China. But I have an initial idea of what I'm going to do in the first three months and I can get LCUs moving on this turn toward that end. After only three days I don't know what Mike has planned for China, but I'm going to do what's right for me and this game's skeleton of no HRs. If he sits back there's nothing that can't be modified next spring.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

PC Taney also has 5inch guns if i remeber correctly... One of those PC/PG that are more like a battleship than an escort ship

Sounds to me liike you refer to Dutch PG Soerabaya, an old battleship with 4 x 11" [280 mm] guns. Definitely she is no longer worthy of being called a BB, but caller it a PG is a bit of a stretch. Should be a category for coastal monitors [big guns, shallow draft] in this game [for a RL example look up the British monitor Abercrombie].

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but IIRC Taney is one of the few truly long-range escorts you have available in the early game. IMO she should be earmarked for convoy duty between the US West Coast and Oz, not making suicide recon runs. PT Boats are good for the latter.

Addendum: I'm not planning on doing convoys between the WC and Oz unless I'm forced to by loss of western Australia. My thoughts on this are found in multiple places in the archives. I believe in using off-map to the max.

I've tried that - inevitably my Cape Town -> Perth convoys encounter SS, AMC, or some 3rd rate IJN flat top halfway between Perth and the off map exit and get mauled. The Brits are even thinner on ASW platforms with long legs than the USN.

[Gridley380]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

PC Taney also has 5inch guns if i remeber correctly... One of those PC/PG that are more like a battleship than an escort ship

Sounds to me liike you refer to Dutch PG Soerabaya, an old battleship with 4 x 11" [280 mm] guns. Definitely she is no longer worthy of being called a BB, but caller it a PG is a bit of a stretch. Should be a category for coastal monitors [big guns, shallow draft] in this game [for a RL example look up the British monitor Abercrombie].

USCGC (United States Coast Guard Cutter) Taney was a Treasury-class cutter; most of them served in the Atlantic and were quite good U-boat killers. Excellent escorts, I'd rather have some of her sisters or USS Erie than a US Army division.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but IIRC Taney is one of the few truly long-range escorts you have available in the early game. IMO she should be earmarked for convoy duty between the US West Coast and Oz, not making suicide recon runs. PT Boats are good for the latter.

Addendum: I'm not planning on doing convoys between the WC and Oz unless I'm forced to by loss of western Australia. My thoughts on this are found in multiple places in the archives. I believe in using off-map to the max.

I've tried that - inevitably my Cape Town -> Perth convoys encounter SS, AMC, or some 3rd rate IJN flat top halfway between Perth and the off map exit and get mauled. The Brits are even thinner on ASW platforms with long legs than the USN.

I have Saratoga in San Diego and have no plans right now to move her into the Pacific. At Full speed off map she can be in CT pretty quickly. It may be that the CT--Perth run is very hard, maybe impossible. It's certainly single dimension. But even operating out of Java it's a fair long way for him to operate at too, especially if I route south. It may be a test of wills. What I really need to get out of CT in the short run is aircraft, and a lot of them aren't going to Perth. Unless there are sustained combat ops in Oz they can get by for awhile on the LI-produced supplies even if I have to turn HI production off.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Mike is traveling this week, so we won't get any turns in until Friday or the weekend. I'm using the time to really look at China. Have four possible macro strategies, each with different pros and cons, each with different levels of skill required to pull off.

Mulling.

For those interested I call them:

1) MLR
2) Atomization
3) Evacuation
3a) Evacuation and activation

Rocky has top-lined comments, but I've asked him not to get into the weeds on numbers or such; I need to learn to do this on my own. His initial comments tell me I need to dig more into base forces and their devices, and to look more at HQ structures in China. But I have an initial idea of what I'm going to do in the first three months and I can get LCUs moving on this turn toward that end. After only three days I don't know what Mike has planned for China, but I'm going to do what's right for me and this game's skeleton of no HRs. If he sits back there's nothing that can't be modified next spring.

I'm going to start executing a modified Evacuation plan to pull significant forces west toward or into India. The Atomization plan, whereby I would split the Chinese infantry LCUs up into their smallest pieces and try a "swarm of bees" supply denial approach in southern and eastern China will fail IMO. I will try to establish not a classic MLR, but a bastion plan to give me time to get the body of the force out, or rather TO, the supplies which will let them grow fat for a return in 43-44. I think strong, supplied Chinese forces on the Indian rail network could be a useful flying wedge, and take garrison duty from the Indian Army so they can use their superior devices and tanks to work in Burma and/or NE India. One secondary objective of this is to also show that no-PPs to cross borders works in more than one way.

In making this decision I've heavily relied on my own self-assessment of my abilitiy to really manage China, especially in the areas of supply, terrain, and rivers/shock rules. I've gone back and read AARs to see how various players have grown and evolved in how they play China. And I've also tried to factor in how much I have to do and learn as a whole in a first PBEM game. I concluded that trying an intricate, numbers-focused AV-fest in China is not something I think I can excel at right now.

This strategy, like all of them, has risks. It gives away base capture VPs, and some of the Chinese bases are big that way. (But surprisingly, many are not that tasty for Japan.) While it strengthens India it also makes it more complex. It puts a bit of pressure on Indian supply generation, although Bombay and Calcutta, if they remain intact, are very large suppliers. It opens up Japanese strat bombing opportunities on the western side, and could lead to another invasion route into Burma and NE India without the need to risk or use sealift. And, if I lose Chungking, which is likely at some point, it freezes Chinese reinforcements, even though they will be queued and not permanently lost.

On the plus side, it might make Mike over-confident if he sees me "fleeing", and this could lead to aggressive moves elsewhere on the board. In China itself he gets cities and VPs, but he must garrison them, and some of the larger cities eat up 30% of a division or a bit more. His supply will flow deeper into the interior, making it open to being severed when I counter-attack. And the base VPs without multipliers is not going to give him an auto-vic so far as I can tell, unless I am rolled up elsewhere on a large-scale basis. (I will build nothing in China except some Forts in selected areas.) To get the real VP bonanza he has to build up, and in that area he will have to make hard decisions about engineer deployments to China and away from the perimeter bases in the Pacific and DEI he needs to build up for LBA. Additionally, most of China offers only airbase builds and not ports, so the potential multiplier effect is lower. Finally, leaving might spare me some of the VP losses from huge Chinese retreat routs we commonly see in 1942 before they are fully TOEed and trained up a bit. I've read of too many city-based MLRs collapsing with 15,000-30,000 man losses. In many ways the cities in China are the most dangerous place to put the army given how the supply algorithms flow.

The 3a option above, Evac and Activation, is probably a pipedream, but one I will keep in the back of my mind. It is a combo of the above, followed in 1943, probably later that year, of a Chinese drive east to pin the extended Japanese forces, including presumably some of the Manchurian garrison freed by the no-PP rules, coupled with a massive Allied invasion of mainland Asia, probably at Hong Kong, by joint US/Brit/Aussie infantry and armor focused on battering up into Manchuria with a goal of getting the garrison to 7999 for one turn. A Soviet activation wins the war.

However, this would be a pure dice roll. Formosa LBA would need to be neutralized, and probably can't be without an invasion there first, which would telegraph the activation strategy. Formosa would take I estimate 6-9 months at least depending on where the staging base was and how he plays it between now and then. Allied losses would be staggering and could themselves lead to an auto-vic against in January 1944. For these reasons and others it's probably not going to happen. But I'll keep it on the board.

So there it is. China . . . can't live with it, can't leave fast enough.

[obvert]

Interesting idea.

It sounds like you're planning to take most of the Chinese units out to build in India. If you attempted to keep only the Central area and the mountains for as long as possible I would think this strategy would be very strong. If you used the rough/woods hexes around these areas to hold them, plus the supply generated by the major centers to keep a small air force at least popping in and out, you could possibly keep those areas with half of the Chinese forces, the better more filled out Corps, while sending the rest to India to build up.

You may already be committed to complete evac but I thought I'd throw this out there. The one tough thing about trying to get back into China later is if he controls the mountains. Not only is this tough territory to conquer, but he'll have increased supply flow to Burma from this area and a few routes to use inside lines during any invasion through Burma.

If he wants to build the conquered bases in China this won't really strain the Japanese engineer availability at all. Most garrisons will be made of brigades which have built in engineers plus there are a few base forces and engineer units already in China. Quite a few more could be brought over temporarily from manchuria before getting to the Pacific if he's looking to build toward a VP goal in 42. He can send a few hundred engineers to a base and max it out in a month, then move on, or just build slowly with one of the small companies of 16 engineers in each base. Plus the added resources, HI/LI and fuel/oil will help the economy right away.

If you go through with this it will make for a tense and interesting game. He will have to make tough decisions about how to take advantage of the move while protecting against it's inevitable outcome in a very strong Chinese army in 43-44. Also something to think about is how many Chinese squads you get to fill out those units. Here is little breakdown:

Chinese Rifle Squads- 350/month = 4200/year

Chinese Cavalry Squads-40/month = 480/year

Chinese engineer squads - 3/month = 36/year

MMG section - 8/month = 96/year

So even moving to India you can't get more than almost 4300 new squads added in during a year of good supply. Sorry if this is all really obvious and you've thought through it all already. Just a new idea for me so I had to break it down.

If your crappy small fragments get destroyed you'll actually gain raw AV when they return at 1/3 strength in the Central area. This might mean that any unit now under 1/3 TOE might be better off shocking across a river trying to obliterate itself so it can gain TOE by being re-spawned in Chungking before you evacuate.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Interesting idea.

It sounds like you're planning to take most of the Chinese units out to build in India. If you attempted to keep only the Central area and the mountains for as long as possible I would think this strategy would be very strong. If you used the rough/woods hexes around these areas to hold them, plus the supply generated by the major centers to keep a small air force at least popping in and out, you could possibly keep those areas with half of the Chinese forces, the better more filled out Corps, while sending the rest to India to build up.

You may already be committed to complete evac but I thought I'd throw this out there. The one tough thing about trying to get back into China later is if he controls the mountains. Not only is this tough territory to conquer, but he'll have increased supply flow to Burma from this area and a few routes to use inside lines during any invasion through Burma.

If he wants to build the conquered bases in China this won't really strain the Japanese engineer availability at all. Most garrisons will be made of brigades which have built in engineers plus there are a few base forces and engineer units already in China. Quite a few more could be brought over temporarily from manchuria before getting to the Pacific if he's looking to build toward a VP goal in 42. He can send a few hundred engineers to a base and max it out in a month, then move on, or just build slowly with one of the small companies of 16 engineers in each base. Plus the added resources, HI/LI and fuel/oil will help the economy right away.

If you go through with this it will make for a tense and interesting game. He will have to make tough decisions about how to take advantage of the move while protecting against it's inevitable outcome in a very strong Chinese army in 43-44. Also something to think about is how many Chinese squads you get to fill out those units. Here is little breakdown:

Chinese Rifle Squads- 350/month = 4200/year

Chinese Cavalry Squads-40/month = 480/year

Chinese engineer squads - 3/month = 36/year

MMG section - 8/month = 96/year

So even moving to India you can't get more than almost 4300 new squads added in during a year of good supply. Sorry if this is all really obvious and you've thought through it all already. Just a new idea for me so I had to break it down.

If your crappy small fragments get destroyed you'll actually gain raw AV when they return at 1/3 strength in the Central area. This might mean that any unit now under 1/3 TOE might be better off shocking across a river trying to obliterate itself so it can gain TOE by being re-spawned in Chungking before you evacuate.

Thanks for this analysis. Some of it I had thought of, some not. I have not opened a Japanese game and taken the TOE and geographic data apart, and I'm unsure if I want to. It's certainly allowed in our game, but I'm still thinking on this. To the casual observer I've made this game the theoretical hardest possible for an Allied player: Scen 2 against an experienced Japanese PBEM player, no HRs, non-historical R&D, PDU on, dud torps on, advanced weather off. If I can win I want to feel like I had to play against the world. If I lose I'll know my limits for right now and I can adjust the next game.

I'm not sure where I'm going to bastion, but it won't be up north. I won't try to hold the oil centers. But it will be in more places than just Chungking. For how long is an open question. My goal right now is to get pieces and parts with their brother pieces and parts and get the HQs standing with their charges. Then send the big units, and soon-to-be big units, to India and begin filling them out. 4000+ squads a year is a whole lot if you're not losing any.

By the time they come back I expect arty, engineers, AA, and armor will be provided by non-Chinese armies. I'm going to huddle the organic arty and AA, such as it is, at Chungking I think. If it dies it dies. The Allies are not short of engineers and AA ever, but certainly not in 1943 and after.

As for routes, I'm not welded to coming back the same way I come out. I would certainly look at Indo-China if that way were feasible. It's very good tank country; I've swept through there in a couple of late AI games. But if it's mountains it's mountains. At that point the main purpose of the Chinese army would be to bleed Japan of arms points and at a 1:3 against VP ratio. It's the one place I can win by my men dying faster than his, just so long as there aren't a series of routs. I should also have good 4E help by that point too.

I have not, as I said, looked closely at Japanese engineer forces, but I don't think embedded numbers are enough to build out airbases to full size, in some cases 9, very fast. Certainly not a month. There aren't any VPs for forts, which I excpect some of the garrison forces will work on too. And the supply draws to take builds all the way to max do add up. China industry starts mostly damaged, and there is very little HI supply there. LI is dispersed, but it does help a lot if there's no fighting to eat it. So I don't know how the engineers shake out. At worst I don't think having them work there hurts me much, and if I can make him pull some in from elsewhere so much the better. (And whatever I take back I get the multiplier.) This move is primarily about saving the Chinese army from needless death and giving up a lot of VPs for not much. Secondarily about making India harder to punch around.

I have to look at suiciding my weak units. I know JFBs like to not attack crips so they don't ressurect. Fortunately it's only four days in, so I don't have but one crip I think. Everybody else is walking away fast, whistling and looking at the sky.

[obvert]

In the beginning of one game i took as many engineers from Manchuria as I could find and tried to build up Fusan quickly. I think at one point, with both embedded and free engineer units I had over 500 engineers and a bunch of engineer vehicles there. The port went to 8 within a bit over a month, and then the fields followed. So yes, an extreme example, but there are a lot to spread around if there is no PPs for border crossings.

There is not a lot of extra supply in the beginning of the game for Japan, but if he isn't fighting a lot because you're scampering away, he'll have more than usual. A lot will depend on how he reacts to your plan. Will he concentrate forces and come for you where you're vulnerable or will he spread forces out along a wide front and try to root out every last Chinese unit? Some of these underpowered units in the SE especially can be sticky in those woods. I also think Wenchow is a good spot to fight as it can be tough if the IJA doesn't come in full force before the forts go up. Anything you can do to stall behind the lines will slow him exponentially. If you do make some rear defenses as most of your units retreat it may also take him a while to realize what's actually happening, so you get even more time while he brings force to bear and gets his garrisons in order.

Anyway, looking forward to seeing how this develops. It's certainly taking the 'problem' most Allied players have been talking about recently and turning it on its head.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Anyway, looking forward to seeing how this develops. It's certainly taking the 'problem' most Allied players have been talking about recently and turning it on its head.

Hey, theory I can do. It's execution that gets me in trouble. [:)]

I don't think China is possible to hold in 1942 if the Japanese focus on Sian and points north right away. There just isn't enough supply, and there's nothing Ledo can about it with one transport unit. I've seen this Sian thing come up more and more over the past year as JFBs read the minutes of the club meetings and stop focusing so much on the magic highway along the coast.

[zuluhour]

I know I'm going to be real curious how this turns out. Moose, I really enjoy the Chinese aspect of the game. I don't think the terrain is quite laid out right, but it is alot of "crooked space". Has anyone ever completed a major exodus of Chinese formations and been able to take back any part of China? or is that even a goal? Just one last thing, what if China is not a major goal for Japan and you gift wrap it? I wish you the best in the endeavor and would like to see a map around mid January of the front line trace.

...in the audience

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I know I'm going to be real curious how this turns out. Moose, I really enjoy the Chinese aspect of the game. I don't think the terrain is quite laid out right, but it is alot of "crooked space". Has anyone ever completed a major exodus of Chinese formations and been able to take back any part of China? or is that even a goal? Just one last thing, what if China is not a major goal for Japan and you gift wrap it? I wish you the best in the endeavor and would like to see a map around mid January of the front line trace.

...in the audience

I don't know if anyone has denuded China (I just wanted to say denuded. [;)]) I'll be glad to accept the plaque.

My goal is to take some back if I can, but the primary goal is to reduce the utility of him marching a lot of restricted AV across the borders. If he doesn't he's foolish since I'll get to keep the VPs with no cost. All he has to pay if he comes is garrisoning. But if he does take China we essentially return to status quo ante with him richer in VPs and with me having a robust auxiliary force in India and Burma. Chinese trroops get a bad rap becuase they're always so hungry. Some of their formations can grow very large---800 AV big--and when middle-experienced they are pretty good troops if you don't attack tanks with them. If you support them with good mid- late-war Allied armor and combat engineers they can do things in a siege. Not as good as the Soviets, but good. And the VP ratio runs in their favor, which is a factor in this game.

In my defense I will say again and not for the last time that this is all a theory. I could for sure screw it up on the ground.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

Anyway, looking forward to seeing how this develops. It's certainly taking the 'problem' most Allied players have been talking about recently and turning it on its head.

Hey, theory I can do. It's execution that gets me in trouble. [:)]

I don't think China is possible to hold in 1942 if the Japanese focus on Sian and points north right away. There just isn't enough supply, and there's nothing Ledo can about it with one transport unit. I've seen this Sian thing come up more and more over the past year as JFBs read the minutes of the club meetings and stop focusing so much on the magic highway along the coast.

I think that the key for an evacuation plan of china is to hold Burma as long as possible. If i was him and i saw your forces. Fleeing from China to India i'll rush in order to close them the retreat path, conquering Mitikina asap and possibly the Assam. So i think you jeed to risk to defend very forward in southeastern India and in Burma, so risking to be taken out of position in case he tries an early invasion of India in march 42.

Also, based on Obvert's observations about the replacements rate, i think you should try to evacuate only those an amount of corps that can be succesfully rebuilt by 1944, and leavethe rest of china army to fight and gain time for those units u decide to save.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: obvert

Anyway, looking forward to seeing how this develops. It's certainly taking the 'problem' most Allied players have been talking about recently and turning it on its head.

Hey, theory I can do. It's execution that gets me in trouble. [:)]

I don't think China is possible to hold in 1942 if the Japanese focus on Sian and points north right away. There just isn't enough supply, and there's nothing Ledo can about it with one transport unit. I've seen this Sian thing come up more and more over the past year as JFBs read the minutes of the club meetings and stop focusing so much on the magic highway along the coast.

I think that the key for an evacuation plan of china is to hold Burma as long as possible. If i was him and i saw your forces. Fleeing from China to India i'll rush in order to close them the retreat path, conquering Mitikina asap and possibly the Assam. So i think you jeed to risk to defend very forward in southeastern India and in Burma, so risking to be taken out of position in case he tries an early invasion of India in march 42.

Also, based on Obvert's observations about the replacements rate, i think you should try to evacuate only those an amount of corps that can be succesfully rebuilt by 1944, and leavethe rest of china army to fight and gain time for those units u decide to save.

Good points about Burma. OTOH, if he comes at Burma by sea he might not have enough to take Singers, and I'm thinking I may try to hold Palembang and get supplies from there into Singers, at least for awhile. He has already begun to land in the PI, so I don't think he's going to leave it be while he gets at Singers. But it's early and I don't have a read on what he has in store for the PI OOB-wise.

If he gets up towards Imphal by March I may still have enough time to slip the Chinese behind and into the Calcutta metro. I am planning to leave some guys behind in China, and they're expendable, although I would prefer they not be. On reinforcements, by 1944 I have 13,000 squads coming. I have not done the total math, but I think the Chinese infantry structures would be strong enough long before 1944 if they don't lose much along the way.

[JocMeister]

Burma is really hard to hold on to early on. The only formation of any significance is the 1st Burma div and its not that good. If you invest too much of the Indian forces in Burma he can easily just bypass you and wait for his forces from China/Manchuria to clean it up during 42. I think investing in Burma early on is a dangerous gamble. Unless you use chinese forces for that... [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Burma is really hard to hold on to early on. The only formation of any significance is the 1st Burma div and its not that good. If you invest too much of the Indian forces in Burma he can easily just bypass you and wait for his forces from China/Manchuria to clean it up during 42. I think investing in Burma early on is a dangerous gamble. Unless you use chinese forces for that... [:)]

They should be available. One issue is if I could get enough supply pulled into Burma fast enough.

It may also be a mistake--a big one if he's got a Hawaiian invasion planned, but I have already sent fairly significant US airpower toward CT. These units could be used in Burma from India.