Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[Canoerebel]

It's so challenging for the Allies early on to know what to commit where; one of the most fun aspects of the game early on. In a Scenario 2 game, especially one in which there are no House Rules, there is a threat of Japanese auto victory. There are so many ways for Japan to approach it, leaving the Allies with the task of correctly allocating forces to meet the threats, but not enough assets to go around. Guess wrong and it's bad news. Of course, you know all this, but just wanted you to know that I "feel your pain." I'm really glad your playing this game and posting an AAR. It's a big benefit to all the community to have a player of your caliber contributing in this way.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's so challenging for the Allies early on to know what to commit where; one of the most fun aspects of the game early on. In a Scenario 2 game, especially one in which there are no House Rules, there is a threat of Japanese auto victory. There are so many ways for Japan to approach it, leaving the Allies with the task of correctly allocating forces to meet the threats, but not enough assets to go around. Guess wrong and it's bad news. Of course, you know all this, but just wanted you to know that I "feel your pain." I'm really glad your playing this game and posting an AAR. It's a big benefit to all the community to have a player of your caliber contributing in this way.

Thanks, man.

How does it feel to be on the other side, telling me to "Look everywhere!!!") [:)]

I just sent the 12/10 turn back, so Mike will have it when he comes in off the road. I'm dying to know what that gaggle east of Lanai is up to, and if the KB is leaving, or only up north on a refuel break.

I started about 3 million Chinese on their Long March 2. I started to try to get component parts moving to the same place, but I gave it up. Right now I'm just trying to get guys who could easily strat mode to a railhead which is somewhat safe, get enough auxiliaries into Chungking to start the big dig, and get the northland cleaned out, including planes. There are short-legged fighters up there which can't get out unless I stage a base force up the highway toward Urmachi, so I did that. I preliminarily chose three bastion cities for the interim. See how that goes.

I'm wondering if you taught him the value of NorPac? I'm spending reinforcement squads I can't spare to shore up Alaska. Dutch Harbor, one of my favorite sub bases, is hanging out there like a big cherry.

For now Oz and India are going to make do with no external land reinforcement. And nothing to the southern island chains. I'm hoping he wastes a lot of effort mucking around with Suva and that lot in the expectation he can cut off west-bound logistics. I'm hoping to get by with CT/Perth.

I did get a radio intercept on a TF far south and a bit west of Christmas Island (the near-Palmyra one) and I tried to vector my two Cats on Johnson so their pie slices will hit this turn. Don't know if this TF will turn north for Christmas, or if it's something more sinister. I can't spare any subs to go look.

[Encircled]

Like the China idea!

If he's read anything you've posted on logistics to Australia he must know you favour the CT-Perth route.

I'd assume he'll go for cutting that, and base everything from there.

Regarding China, you have lots of expendable AK's and AKL's in the Indian Ocean area. I try to get as much as I can loaded with supplies and dump them at Rangoon to help ease the situation in China.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Like the China idea!

If he's read anything you've posted on logistics to Australia he must know you favour the CT-Perth route.

I'd assume he'll go for cutting that, and base everything from there.

Regarding China, you have lots of expendable AK's and AKL's in the Indian Ocean area. I try to get as much as I can loaded with supplies and dump them at Rangoon to help ease the situation in China.

China will be a crap shoot. He will see all the little directional dots very quickly and react in some way.

Yes to the CT--Perth route. Part of the problem with having 4366 posts here, about half of them on logistics. If he tries to interdict I will fight there. I'm perfectly willing to send all three of my carriers off-map to CT and duel on the western map edge. If he takes Perth I will do whatever I can to take it back, as well as entice him to step over the Line of Death. But in the very near term if he comes at Perth there are many other targets he can't address, so we will see. If I get six weeks I'll have good sea attack planes in the west.

I have several convoys headed to Rangoon now, from Madras I believe. Rangoon is nice to hold, but I know it's hard given Pegu's fragility and the utter dog's breakfast which is Burmese infantry. To that end some Chinese infantry can't get to Burma fast enough.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Like the China idea!

If he's read anything you've posted on logistics to Australia he must know you favour the CT-Perth route.

I'd assume he'll go for cutting that, and base everything from there.

Regarding China, you have lots of expendable AK's and AKL's in the Indian Ocean area. I try to get as much as I can loaded with supplies and dump them at Rangoon to help ease the situation in China.

China will be a crap shoot. He will see all the little directional dots very quickly and react in some way.

Yes to the CT--Perth route. Part of the problem with having 4366 posts here, about half of them on logistics. If he tries to interdict I will fight there. I'm perfectly willing to send all three of my carriers off-map to CT and duel on the western map edge. If he takes Perth I will do whatever I can to take it back, as well as entice him to step over the Line of Death. But in the very near term if he comes at Perth there are many other targets he can't address, so we will see. If I get six weeks I'll have good sea attack planes in the west.

I have several convoys headed to Rangoon now, from Madras I believe. Rangoon is nice to hold, but I know it's hard given Pegu's fragility and the utter dog's breakfast which is Burmese infantry. To that end some Chinese infantry can't get to Burma fast enough.

Although it still happens, supply moves slower with more recent patches. With 1108r9 I couldn't even get all the supply I moved into Burma to flow into China. Just FYI it won't all run down hill like it did in the early days.

[Bullwinkle58]

December 10, 1941

The first week progresses. Not a bad day for the Allies, but not a lot of questions answered either.

Night Phase

1) ASW Training Day for the Allies near Hawaii. With air patrols now well established I sent a half-dozen mixed ASW TFs out one hex to address the thick spread of subs camping north of PH. In night and day phases, in both attacks and reacts, nine separate ASW actions take place. It is not until #6 that the first DC is dropped. No hits are achieved on any subs, but several do waste some fish firing at their attackers, also for no hits. As the ASW patrols spread more subs are found to the east of PH; difficult to tell if they're new or part of a cartwheel rotation of patrol areas to cover whatever is going on down near Lanai. But he does know now I can see his subs. Several air patrols report hits, but we all know how those flyboys lie.

2) Crippled AO Trinity is finished off by sub near Tarakan.

3) The first night bombing mission ordered finally flies in Malaysia against KB's airfield, hitting nothing. But at least the RAF is over the initial shock and is fighting back.

4) Landings begin at Beaufort in north Borneo. Mike shows his expertise with Japanese force allocation by sending only a single APD and a fragment of an infantry battalion. One small escort. Nothing more will be needed.

5) S-36, operating inside the harbor at Apari, scores two hits on an unloading xAK. No damage in ASW response. I plan to use my subs very aggressively as long as I can and not worry about damage. If this makes him waste mines so much the better.

Day Phase

1) AV Langley is sunk in two bomb attacks west of Babel-de-bob. Traveling alone, suspecting her fate was preordained. In not one GC I have ever played have I saved Langley. Enjoy the reef, fish.

2) My extensive moves in China were either not noticed or not judged important. Only one, small air attack hits troops there. I expect this will change as the Chinese army appears on the roads in vast numbers.

3) A third day of major air attacks on Pearl begins, this time from extreme range at the height of French Frigate Shoals. By now the KB pilots must be feeling fatigue. I had bet against a third day and moved several of the more damaged BBs to the pier, while leaving almost all of my surface forces in TFs out in the harbor, at battlestations after reloading ammo and fuel. The first strike was balanced by model, but rather small. Flak did a good job, and I'm still managing to get up a decent CAP, although I raised Rest rates 10% across the board. He does have at least a few torpedoes left, but the damage was acceptable and he took some lumps:


Morning Air attack on TF, near Pearl Harbor at 180,107

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 108 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 46
B5M1 Mabel x 2
B5N1 Kate x 16
D3A1 Val x 16

Allied aircraft
P-26A x 4
P-36A Mohawk x 13
P-40B Warhawk x 20
F4F-3 Wildcat x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N1 Kate: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-26A: 1 destroyed
P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 3 destroyed

Allied Ships
DM Montgomery
DM Tracy
DD Conyngham
CL Honolulu
DD Cassin
DD Farragut
CL Helena, Torpedo hits 1
CL Phoenix
DD Litchfield, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Dale
DM Gamble
DM Ramsay


---The afternnon attack was very large and Kate-heavy at about 120 planes. Operating at extreme range I wonder how many of the damaged splashed on the way home. USN damage was very light. Arizona can take the bomb hit, Tennessee less so, but he took additional damage to his pre-war pilots:

Afternoon Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 114 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 35 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 44
B5M1 Mabel x 4
B5N1 Kate x 13
B5N2 Kate x 104

Allied aircraft
P-26A x 3
P-36A Mohawk x 15
P-40B Warhawk x 25
F4F-3 Wildcat x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed, 12 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-36A Mohawk: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
DM Preble
CA San Francisco
CL Honolulu
DD Farragut
CL Phoenix
DD Litchfield
DD Chew
DM Ramsay
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 1
CL Raleigh
DD Schley
DD Dale
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
CL St. Louis
PG Sacramento
xAK Hoegh Merchant, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Conyngham

Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Port hits 2

---The final attack was an uncoordinated, unescorted flight of Vals which showed up late. Ten planes headed in, six made the target, four were destroyed for no Allied losses. The Val factory workers back in Japan will be busy after this week.

4) Minor action around the map included float plane attacks by both sides in the PI, and the sinking of a wounded AM near the PI. The mini-KB is sititng smack in the middle of the Celebes Sea, attacking both near Bo-jangles and toward Tarakan. I have a good TF full of CLs and DDs at Balikpapan, but I don't think I want to bet on the MKB torpedo inventory right now. I want the surface guys there to perhaps raid a Tarakan landing, but I'm also hoping he hasn't seen them.

5) Landings by at least four xAKs begin at Davao.

6) Unoccupied Vigan and Apari both fall.

Assessment: Continued classic first week moves by Japan except for around Hawaii. I sent a scouting ship down to Lanai to see what's up there, but got no report in the movie. Once I have the turn I may know more. I still suspect a landing at Lanai or on the Big Island, but I wonder if this move was predicated by either a more damaging 12/7 on my surface forces, or me rushing out and into the nest of subs to the north. I still have enough undamaged and slightly damaged combatants at Pearl to oppose a landing. Also, my two at-sea carriers are slowly moving due east about 20 hexes SW of the Big Island, still with decent fuel and largely grounded air wings. They could be in strike range of the Big Island in a day. I do wish, however, that the KB would head home.

So far there has been no move on Palembang except sub mining, which makes me happy. Forces landing in Malaysia so far seem more of the pinning variety, feelings ditto. What I see in the PI, and intel on same, says he's making a harder push there.

Low on PPs, but my top priority is to buy out the PI B-17s and get them to Singers. Miri and Brunei need a visit at the ole refinery.

Still pondering sending Saratoga to Africa. Until things are a bit clearer in Hawaii I want her near.

[DOCUP]

1900 views dang Bull.  You got it going on here.  Keep up the good work.  Been fun reading.  Your doing better than me in my PBEM already.

[Yaab]

I would keep an eye on three Chinese infantry units, namely 3rd New Chinese Corps, 5th Chinese Corps and 6th Chinese Corps.They stay on map for the entire war and can be attached to a different HQ.They all have the US equipped TOE, which means they receive 36 37mm AA guns (Japs cannot bomb these corps wthout punishment as they usually do) and have 36 squads of combat engineers for assaulting fortified positions. I would prioritise these three units for replacements.

[BBfanboy]

Not sure about this scenario, but in Scenario one I have found these corps that can be changed to unrestricted HQs:
3rd New Chinese , 3rd Reserve Chinese, 5th New Chinese, 7th New Chinese 8th New Chinese, 22nd Chinese, 26th Chinese, 66th Chinese and 88th New Chinese.
Divisions which can be changed: 49th Chinese, 55th Provisional Chinese, 93rg Chinese, 96th Chinese and 200th Chinese.

Don't know about their TOEs though.
I plan to buy out those that are close enough to the Burma Road to march across to Burma/India for training and filling out. After that - Japan??.[;)]

[princep01]

Hummmmm.....KB out of torpedos and low on missions.  Admiral Halsey might combine with Lex and actually do some good.  Any chance the Moose will loose the Bull along with a surface strike at the KB? 
 
 
Hummmm, verse 2......Mabels?  Really?  CV trained or just CV capable?  Did those howling dogs with fleas actually hit anything?  Flying into a stiff headwind, they have been clocked at a ground speed of 60 mph:). 

[BBfanboy]

I think the Swordfish also makes about 60 knots in a stiff headwind, but it can still sting!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

1900 views dang Bull.  You got it going on here.  Keep up the good work.  Been fun reading.  Your doing better than me in my PBEM already.

Monday morning and back to the AAR.

Thanks for the kind words. I had a feeling I would have a big hit count at first since the best part fo any crash is when the gas tank explodes. [:)] Later on, when the firemen are sweeping up the debris, the traffic flies by.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Yaab

I would keep an eye on three Chinese infantry units, namely 3rd New Chinese Corps, 5th Chinese Corps and 6th Chinese Corps.They stay on map for the entire war and can be attached to a different HQ.They all have the US equipped TOE, which means they receive 36 37mm AA guns (Japs cannot bomb these corps wthout punishment as they usually do) and have 36 squads of combat engineers for assaulting fortified positions. I would prioritise these three units for replacements.

This is good gouge. Thanks. I definately need all the help in China I can get. The turn I'm going to post on in a minute is a good example.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Hummmmm.....KB out of torpedos and low on missions.  Admiral Halsey might combine with Lex and actually do some good.  Any chance the Moose will loose the Bull along with a surface strike at the KB? 


Hummmm, verse 2......Mabels?  Really?  CV trained or just CV capable?  Did those howling dogs with fleas actually hit anything?  Flying into a stiff headwind, they have been clocked at a ground speed of 60 mph:). 

KB disappeared to the west on this turn. Good riddance. I have Lex on a mission better suited to her current low station of planes and training. I am trying mightily to restrain my dogs of war for now. Mike is a careful man and I'm still sketching in his habit canvas. I have Force Z fully intact, and he has done things which I think were aimed at clocking it if I got above myself.

The Mabels have been pretty thick so far and haven't done well, but not useless either. Bringing them to PH might show a caution on A/C produciton realities, with the Kate starting the Scenario turned off as I recall. As it unfolded his Kate losses were fairly reasonable, but the Vals were decimated, the largest loss rate for any model on both sides so far at 81 lost. I think I remember them being at about 12/month to start. I also recall there being at least one LBA Val unit in the northern HI or maybe in Korea? He maybe could dissolve it to get the pool up. Don't know. And for awhile the Kates are the queen of the seas, certainly range-wise. But the Vals get a lot more sorties.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: princep01

Hummmmm.....KB out of torpedos and low on missions.  Admiral Halsey might combine with Lex and actually do some good.  Any chance the Moose will loose the Bull along with a surface strike at the KB? 


Hummmm, verse 2......Mabels?  Really?  CV trained or just CV capable?  Did those howling dogs with fleas actually hit anything?  Flying into a stiff headwind, they have been clocked at a ground speed of 60 mph:). 

KB disappeared to the west on this turn. Good riddance. I have Lex on a mission better suited to her current low station of planes and training. I am trying mightily to restrain my dogs of war for now. Mike is a careful man and I'm still sketching in his habit canvas. I have Force Z fully intact, and he has done things which I think were aimed at clocking it if I got above my station right away. Good I haven't.

The Mabels have been pretty thick so far and haven't done well, but not useless either. Bringing them to PH might show a caution on A/C produciton realities, with the Kate starting the Scenario turned off as I recall. As it unfolded his Kate losses were fairly reasonable, but the Vals were decimated, the largest loss rate for any model on both sides so far at 81 lost. I think I remember them being at about 12/month to start. I also recall there being at least one LBA Val unit in the northern HI or maybe in Korea? He maybe could dissolve it to get the pool up. Don't know. And for awhile the Kates are the queen of the seas, certainly range-wise. But the Vals get a lot more sorties.

81 Vals from KB lost in the first few days of the war stings by any measure. Scenario 2 starts with sizeable reserves of B5N2, B5N1 and D3A1 aircraft for the Japanese though, so it's more about available reserves than default production settings. B5N1 factories are producing at war's start and can be / should be expanded whilest spooling up B5N2 production.

Between the two B5 factories, figure on 1 airframe produced daily for the first month of the war. Thereafter, production will be more variable and dictated by his production settings.

[Bullwinkle58]

December 11, 1941

Every Allied player can identify with what I felt as I watched this turn unfold: "Well, at least he's using a lot of torps and ammo and he'll have to go home to reload soon."

Some good, some bad, some pretty horrible, adding up to December 1941.

Night Phase

1) The very intense submarine war continued with multiple ASW prosecutions around Pearl with no hits by either side. His subs expended more fish shooting at ASW vessels, and they responded, in one case to the point of ammo exhaustion, scoring no hits but accumulating a bit of crew experience. Near Balabac an I-boat proved it is indeed possible for the Japanese to miss a surface vessel. Near Jolo, four crack IJN DDs worked over KXVIII, scoring no hits and no damage. Near Aparri, S-36 in shallow water took on five escorts guarding two transports and got away scratch-free, but was then jumped by two DMS W-class and took five hard hits, then was attacked AGAIN by the same original five escorts. But she stayed on station.

2) Landings continued at Beaufort and Davao. Mike continues to demonstrate a lot of discipline in his landing operations, waiting to attack until the landing is well along or finished. At Beaufort in particular he could have this base with two girl scouts and a lemonade wagon, but he takes it slow, again unloading from his lone APD. This behavior may be caution, it may be bait, or it may be his core play style, or it could be something else. I can learn from it, but he is also using precious days and I do not so far feel extremely pressed by his landing pace. I continue to wait for the other shoe to drop, with magic TFs dispatched to the four corners of the map to appear, but every day which goes by leads me more to the conclusion that this is how he plans and plays. I'll take the breathing room while I have it. I have my own problems.

3) In a very good outcome for the IJN my four old DDs TF out of Manila headed for the landings at Vigan are jumped by a patrolling surface force of evildoers. The force turns back for Manila afterward, not getting close to its mission. I did remember, however, to LRCAP these ships this time, which pays off in the day phase.

Night Time Surface Combat, near San Fernando at 79,73, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Ashigara, Shell hits 2
CL Kuma
DD Asakaze
DD Matsukaze

Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford
DD Peary, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
DD Pillsbury
DD Pope, Shell hits 2

4) The Tale of the Three Little Ships begins out in the South China Sea. The three RN DDs, refugees from a beseiged Hong Kong, are making their separate ways toward Singers on different courses and waypoints. Recall the stiff exchanges with a IJN TF several days ago which resulted in a collision between two enemy ships and a very good display of gunnery by the Jolly Tars. Alas, each of the three, in a series of running battles spanning night and day, fall to superior numbers while inflicting only minor damge. Mike has stacked at least three stiff surface TFs N-S across the South China Sea in mutually supporting patterns, to guard his N. Borneo landings and to sweep up refugees fleeing HK and the PI. All three do their job. In the process, as I said at the outset, they expend wave after wave of Long Lance and dozens of cycles of main gun ammo, which is cold comfort to the men of the RN, but which might play into the second week's op tempo. RIP HMS Scout, HMS Thracian, and HMS Thanet.

5) If these TFs were also designed to intercept Force Z they will fail. That Force is orbiting out in the IO on a tight triangle zone, positioned to aid Palembang, Batavia, or Perth if a bolt-from-the-blue were attempted. Their full speed dash from Singers has made the fuel situation difficult, but I have a few more days before I must pull them in for a drink. My Sumatran and Javanese tankers have fled on different courses for their next jobs and are not handy for the task.

6) Initial landings on Guam begin with a TF of seven escorts and one xAK. I have no subs nearby. At the beginning I prefer to focus on harbors where I know there are targets and essential choke points where my very few good-torp boats can increase their attack odds. Islands, with a 360-degree approach, are a lower percentage opportunity it seems to me. Later on I will focus a lot of interdicting island re-supply, but at the beginning it's all about disrupting landings and forcing the Japanese to send another unit to replace one sunk or decimated.

7) In a side-note, there has been no activity at Wake since the war began. This turn I took the CAP there down a notch to rest. Wake can be a bear if the scenario-assigned forces are not stiffened, but it WILL fall. I have almost gotten Forts there up a number, however, and the Marines tend to take some landers with them, so I appreciate the time.

Day Phase

1) In an addendum to the Tale of the Three, as I said these battles spanned both phases. Before she was sunk, HMS Thanet gave the Emperor a gift:

xAK Fushimi Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire

This 2-ship xAK TF was the first I have seen whcih had no escorts. It was southbound across the S. China Sea in an area my opponent knew there were DDs. Oversight? Or too lavish an escort for the initial wave at Guam and the PI?

2) Near Aparri, S-36 gains her revenge for the hard night before. Breaking up noises noted:

Sub attack near Aparri at 83,72

Japanese Ships
PB Shonan Maru #17, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS S-36

SS S-36 launches 2 torpedoes
S-36 bottoming out ....
Sub escapes detection

3) Near Soc Trang, the Dutch bubbleheads continue to earn their sub pay, although command at Soerbaja wishes to remind them of the cost of a torpedo:

Sub attack near Soc Trang at 60,74

Japanese Ships
xAK Meiten Maru, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
PB Eiko Maru

Allied Ships
SS KXI

In a later attack a fat westbound AV, escorted, is missed by sub attack. This 3-ship TF appears to be out of Cam Rahn Bay headed for KB.

4) All day heavy fighter sweeps continue in Malaysia, at Rangoon where the AVG is already bleeding, and in the PI. Some air efforts swing away from the PI where footholds are established and onto China where both bombing and escort numbers increase markedly. Troops in the open are the most common target although the garrison at Hong Kong is pounded again. I expect attention to the roads will grow in the coming days and weeks as my China big-out becomes apparent.

5) Unescorted Bettys arrive to feed on the retreating DDs from Manila, but are met by P-40s. 2 destroyed, 1 damaged, but the replay shows more damage than that. Mike has been conservative with his 2E bombers so far after one bad day early. I do hate the things.

6) I sneak in two more Cat torpedo attacks in the PI for a total of four planes. No hits. I know opinions differ on this, but I have found they do get hits often enough to justify them in my play style. If they can give my CAP some relief from the sweeps so much the better. I plan to try at least one maximum effort next tturn, and then reassess.

7) I buy out one B-17 unit in the PI and send it to Batavia. I will buy out at least one more next turn. Batavia is sub-optimal for basing N. Borneo strikes due to AF size, but is far more secure than Singers. I'm going to see if the heavies will fly from Batavia on Miri next turn, in daylight. If they won't I may have to shuttle them to Singers and eat the fatigue. Cat and mouse, but some Oil hits would make me happy.

8) The mini-KB, or I should say one mini-KB (there is a second SE of Davao which is reported a CS but whcih is flying Vals and Kates), has been camping on the map letters "Celebes Sea" for a couple of days, so I visit with a Dutch sub. Attacks on the escorts, no carriers seen, but he should know I know where they are. The minis attack and sink a couple of fleeing xAKL/xAKs. I had atomized what I had left still leaving the PI. The routes south are firmly closed, so I had designated about five routes east for Midway, Dutch, and even Wake, with full waypoints, to give these poor guys the best chance I can come up with. A couple might make it.

Similarly, for a few cripples NE of Borneo which have Singers as their one, best option, I have used the new, Beta-patch-provided "Coastal" routing control to send them within stone's throw of Brunei and Miri in the slim hope they can dodge the three surface TFs which killed the RN DDs. After these ships are either clear or dead the escape phase of the initial game is done. Hordes are already well clear of western Java and Sumatra heading for Cape Town. In retrospect I should have done some things differently. I had never had the AI use the mini-KB so well. It normally uses it in a far more mobile fashion and does not camp it as Mike did here. Still, my tanker/AO losses have been light and most of the sinkings have been xAKLs.

9) In answer to an earlier question about the Mabel, here, though not at Pearl, is one action:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Hong Kong at 75,65

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 2 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 0 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5M1 Mabel x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAKL Halldor, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B5M1 Mabel bombing from 6000 feet
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring xAKL Halldor

In a second atack the Mabels returned and sent Halldor to the bottom.

10) In an observation worth more to me in learning about my opponent than the tactical advantage he may have gotten, in the day phase I now see the Beaufort landings grow by three xAKs. They are reported as being in the same TF as the APD already there, which I think, code-wise, means he had to have Joined the TFs rather than had the xAKs set for Do Not Unload. Regardless, this means he did a probing landing with the APD, had no push-back, and then brought in the heavy landing ships. This is very clever, and something I have never done or would have thought to do against the AI. I will remember it for future atoll ops. In effect, the girl scouts at Beaufort now have their moms and two angry beagles to help knock over this critical target. [:)]

11) Land battles begin, and two "oooof" moments happen in China, illustrating why I hate this theater and why I hope for better days to come. Simple battles can quickly turn to a rout.

Ground combat at 91,39 (near Chengting)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 5574 troops, 38 guns, 32 vehicles, Assault Value = 194

Defending force 1262 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 49

Japanese adjusted assault: 106

Allied adjusted defense: 9

Japanese assault odds: 11 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
719 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled Units retreated 1


Ground combat at Anyang (89,43)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7330 troops, 54 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 303

Defending force 4554 troops, 43 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 167

Japanese adjusted assault: 223

Allied adjusted defense: 73

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
91 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
2696 casualties reported
Squads: 95 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 61 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 4 (4 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

12) Beaufort falls. Defenders retreat into jungle. Allies bombard at Davao with no results.

Assessments:

1) The big news of the day is no news--the KB has gone over the hill to the west. Whether it keeps going, or goes to Truk to rearm and return, we will see. The CAP at Pearl will rest a bit and repair. LCU reinforcements for Oahu and the Big Island are enroute; additional escorts are sent to bring them through the sub cordon around Oahu. But overall the bill at Pearl is not bad. The BBs are dinged, but I've seen a lot worse. Not many sinkings, and the aircraft, while very damaged, have fairly light losses. In particular my patrol planes are in quite good shape and I have 360 patrols out 10 hexes.

2) The gaggle west of Lanai is still there, and must be a bunch of subs. I put an ASW TF right on top of it and converted it to Surface, and it saw nothing. My patrol planes see no surface ships at all, and give this report:





If subs, I have no idea what they're doing. If the mini-sub carriers why are they still there? Did Mike forget about them? I doubt it; he hasn't been sloppy anywhere else. If he wanted me to worry, he did that. If he was sticking them there to hit returning CVs, why not spread them? Are they reliefs for the subs on the north side of Oahu, saving transit time from Kwajalein? Maybe. I just don't know. Right now though I'm pretty sure they aren't an invasion fleet.

3) I have slid my carriers SE farther toward Christmas Island. I lost track of the radio intel sniff I got two days ago, but I still think it's possible there is a landing force there of some size. I plan ot unleash my search effort from the carrierrs this turn now that I think the KB is retiring. A risk as he could turn it, but I don't plan to stick around if I don't find anything. Christmas Island is valauble, but not to the extent I'll lose Lex over it right now.

4) Overall, sounding like a broken record, I'm surprised at how things are going so far. The pace of landings is too slow to get the max out of the amphib bonus. He is conventionally going for the PI so far, which is OK, but it's giving me time elsewhere to dig. This could change of course, but right now I don't know if Mike is naturally cautious, taking it easy on me becasue I'm a beginner (hah!), or isn't himself sure of what goodies no HRs give him.

5) For myself, I know I'm misplaying the balance between Singers' defense and building up Palembang. I don't have enough to do both, and maybe not even one, but I want both. [:)] I've also sent my transports away for the most part, so I can't lift the Indians off Malaysia and to Sumatra very easily. Anything which moves near Singers dies, so far. And I have evidence from the large AV I missed that he's moving in even more air to Malaysia, even as he sends the troops to the PI. I'm using the Dutch air transports to their max to pull troops into Palembang, but it's very slow. I do not have a good solution for the Singers/Palembang issue this week.

6) Re AI vs. PBEM impressions, which will be a continuing theme here for awhile, the pace is also setting me off balance. I feel like I've been in this war for months already, but it's less than a week. Mike traveling last week gave me almost too much time for navel-gazing, especially re China. Mike is very quick to flip turns back, but I'm spending at least 500% more time on turns than I would with the AI, and I'm not sure this is good for my performance. Already this AAR is turing into what I promised myself I wouldn't do. I need to dial back the impulse to relate everything.

Personal Note: After five turns I want to say how lucky I feel to have found a first PBEM opponent like Mike. He has been gracious in his communications, right on time when he said he would deliver something. He sends back the replay as soon as he sees it so I can begin to plan. And so far there has been no attempt at psyops or game chat. We've talked the NFL, but there has been no gloating and certainly no thinnly disguised attempts to get info. I know he played at least one game where that was rife, and perhaps he didn't like that. But so far the turns are standing on their own, and I like that.

Final Thought For My Co-Newbie Readers: Despite numerous attacks at sea and on land, despite losing lots of ships including three prime RN destroyers, despite two routing debacles in China, when the dust settled and the piper was paid the VP shift was -45 for the Allies. Even in the darkest days things aren't all bleak.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

81 Vals from KB lost in the first few days of the war stings by any measure. Scenario 2 starts with sizeable reserves of B5N2, B5N1 and D3A1 aircraft for the Japanese though, so it's more about available reserves than default production settings. B5N1 factories are producing at war's start and can be / should be expanded whilest spooling up B5N2 production.

Between the two B5 factories, figure on 1 airframe produced daily for the first month of the war. Thereafter, production will be more variable and dictated by his production settings.

Yep, 81, but I know that's FOWed for me. In particular I got lots of reports of Vals on Search lost to CAP, and those are notoriously overstated on the pro side. But he did lose a lot no matter the FOW.

I think he'll expand the Kates, but we have non-historical R&D on. How soon do you think he could get the next DB in line? (I'm not even sure what it is without looking it up.) Do you think it's close in enough he might not want to expand Val produciton much?

I have no idea how aggressive he naturally is in the air war versus other phases. I'm going to try to hurt his petroleum situation from now to then, but I recall Scen 2 givng a pretty fair cushion, even if he operates the navy a lot. Maybe 16 months at least?

[obvert]

The slow pace of operations in the first week could be misleading. Many good Japanese players will re-align TFs that start with poor ship allocations, will get the right elements into the area before entering Allied territory and will be upgrading and re-sizing air groups on the mini-KB. There is a lot to do if you want the next several weeks to go as planned. You might see very little now, but he could have all of W Borneo including the important Singkawang, plus places like Ternate, Kendari, Ambon and even Palembang within a few weeks if the forces are prepared well and coordinated effectively.

Many players advised me (quite rightly I might add in retrospect) that I should plan to land at Palembang between Dec 15-20 at the latest.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

The slow pace of operations in the first week could be misleading. Many good Japanese players will re-align TFs that start with poor ship allocations, will get the right elements into the area before entering Allied territory and will be upgrading and re-sizing air groups on the mini-KB. There is a lot to do if you want the next several weeks to go as planned. You might see very little now, but he could have all of W Borneo including the important Singkawang, plus places like Ternate, Kendari, Ambon and even Palembang within a few weeks if the forces are prepared well and coordinated effectively.

Many players advised me (quite rightly I might add in retrospect) that I should plan to land at Palembang between Dec 15-20 at the latest.

Good points. The mini-KBs have been at sea continuously though, and one is flying Claudes. I don't have hard evidence he's still using Babel-de-bob for a base, but he probably is. In two turns at most there won't be any local targets for the one in the Celebes Sea, so he might re-arm it, and then support eastern Borneo with it. I still have the surface TF at Balikpapan, as I thought he'd hit Tarakan this turn, but it's awefully exposed.

I'm used to the AI being on Singkawang and Manado by now, as well as landing on Lingayan, which is why I invested all my naval mines there. So far he hasn't touched my TBs at all, so if he comes at Palembang without a lot more bombing at Singers he'll pay. Palembang doesn't have torpedo supplies, but Batavia does. And if he gives me five weeks I have a lot of 2E bombers coming from CONUS. I don't know if he realizes what the code lets you do off-map if you push it.

I hear you on Ambon and Kendari. I'm pulling out patrol planes and AVPs from most of the northland already. I expect to lose Timor. I'm not sending anything to PM except supply. I'm going to turtle in OZ until the summer, at least, and see what he does. I expect Brisbane to be a major sub base pretty soon. All subject to adjustment of course, but if he wants Suva and Noumea and the Solomons he can have them. I'm more worried about NorPac, Burma, Pt. Blair, Rangoon, and a thrust at Colombo on a VP-shopping expedition.

[princep01]

Moose, of course you must choose what to defend and what to let go as you are severly limited in unrestricted ground forces to begin.  However, I do like to hold Pago-Pago with a regiment and a few other odds and ends (especially a CD unit).  It is one of the first places I send a free regiment and engineering elements as it generally will become the base from which my paltrey 1942 "offensive" actions originate.  It also serves as "the corner" for convoys to Oz and the Ziwis.  Yes, he can take it with the forces he has available if he cares to commit heavy forces, but a regiment and the odds and ends stop the SNFL/Nav Gd grabs and sometimes is a nice place to crack a few Japanese skulls if he comes with only the light forces.
 
Canton Is. is also one of the few places I really try to hold in the early going for much the same reason as Canton.  Securing a pipeline to OZ is an important early objective for the Allies.
 
I am not familar with Japan's OB for Senario 2 and whether he starts with much in the Marshalls and Gilberts, but in Scenario 1 games there is not much there for him to play with.  You can generally beat him to these objectives unless he goes for them initially.
 
I fully understand you dilemma however.  It is hard to decide where to defend and when it is reasonable to launch those 1942 spoiling attacks.
 
Best of luck to you.