Hairy Asian Experiences - GreyJoy (J) vs. Q-Ball (A)

[GreyJoy]

July 12... Port Hedland is invaded with no problems so far by 2 SNLF units. The base is almost empty...
 
The enemy convoy is approaching Canton Is... The KB is spotted as it left Rabaul...damn!
However i don't think he will go all the way to Tabiutea now that he has been spotted also by my Mavis from Tarawa... Sending 4 more subs from Rabaul to the area.
 
Still no sign of enemy's CVs....i don't believe he'd invade Tabiutea without the CV support... is he just trying to attract my attention and so drive the KB somewhere else? .... mmmm.... My CVs will be positioned at Ponape for the moment...i don't wanna leave the NG completely unguarded...
 
Zuikaku and Shokaku are finally ready. They are sailing towards the Mariannas....[8D]

[princep01]

Ser Greyjoy, I once heard a story.  It went something like this.  The Shokaku and Zuikaku had been detached from KB and were refitting in Home waters.  The shothanded KB nonetheless sortied into the Pacific to take some far away, isolated island or another.  The KB and friends were surprised by an inferior Allied CV force.  The KB was destroyed for 1 American CV that would have survived but for an unlucky encounter with a Japanese sub.
 
Oh wait one.....that really happened.  The isolated island was some outpost named Midway Is. 
 
Moral:  Be careful about committing your mighty sword to some isolated place that means little, if anything.  You may find it irrevocably shattered ....for naught.
 
One man's view.....unless you sight the American CVs and wish to engage them 4 on 4 or some such, then Tabiutea is not worth the fuel to get there. 

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: princep01

Ser Greyjoy, I once heard a story.  It went something like this.  The Shokaku and Zuikaku had been detached from KB and were refitting in Home waters.  The shothanded KB nonetheless sortied into the Pacific to take some far away, isolated island or another.  The KB and friends were surprised by an inferior Allied CV force.  The KB was destroyed for 1 American CV that would have survived but for an unlucky encounter with a Japanese sub.

Oh wait one.....that really happened.  The isolated island was some outpost named Midway Is. 

Moral:  Be careful about committing your mighty sword to some isolated place that means little, if anything.  You may find it irrevocably shattered ....for naught.

One man's view.....unless you sight the American CVs and wish to engage them 4 on 4 or some such, then Tabiutea is not worth the fuel to get there. 

Very true my friend... I'll be very cautious and i will engage only with favourable odds. All my available Mavis and Emilies are moving into the Marshalls/Gilberts. Wanna see things as clear as possible before committing. More Nells and Zeros are moving from the Mariannas and 10 subs are moving from Rabaul. The KB will remain between Ponape and Kusiae and wait for some better intel. In the meanwhile Ziukaku and Shokaku are steaming south....

Let's see... thanks for the wise words Master

[GreyJoy]

7/16/1942

Slow turns indeed. I haven't been updating a lot cause, while in game everything is proceeding slow and sleepy, in RL these are really FULL days

However, seems that the convoy we spotted near Canton Is. was just a decoy (or Brad has realized he has been spotted and moved it away), cause my Mavis, subs and G3M3 Nells didn't report anything more after that very first contact.
Don't wanna waste more fuel (already wasted nearly 50,000 tons of fuel only for the transition of the KB from Tokyo to the Mariannas->Rabaul!!!!) so the KB will be moved back to Truk where he cannot spot me. Nonetheless i'm keeping 3 Glenn Equipped subs in the area for the next week or so, while 2 more recon subs will be moved back again near Pago Pago/Suva

Recently he started to recon Rabaul from Portland Roads...i hate Brad's ability to always keep an aye on my activities... Portland Roads is a nail in my flank and i'm sure it will soon become a PITA.

I decided to re-organize the Air Force stationed at Rabaul (the air Army that will take care for the whole PAC theatre) and added 30 Nicks to the OOB...sooner than what i'd like i bet waves of 4Es will be ready to smash Rabaul...and i need to be ready!

Basically QBall's Air force is completely intact. He didn't give me any chance of attriting him in a favourable scenario, and, at the same time, i didn't have the cojones to really push any further than what he decided to leave to me... So, with lots of probabilities, We're gonna see a very strong allied counterattack as soon as his pools are going to be full of experienced pilots and decent machines...
In the meanwhile i'm doing my best to get ready. Troops are slowly flowing to garrison the key-places and the ASW air net is building up.
We're now assembling the convoys for the newly conquered oil pumps at Balikapan and we're almost ready to start reducing Manila.

In China he's doung a great job harrassing my supply lines with guerrilla forces (near Kweilling and Whochow) and his defensive positions around Chikkiang seem stronger than ever.
We are trying to isolate Tiensui in the north, but it's a long and bloody road to open that front...and my supply levels are, once again, too getting low in China...another 80k convoy is approaching Shangai, hopefully this will boost a bit my operations.

[GreyJoy]

Here's the situation in northern China

[GreyJoy]

South and central China

[GreyJoy]

R&D
 
KI-44c advances up to 1/44 (target is 9/43)
A6M3a advances up to 11/42 (target is 10/42)
A6M5 advances up to 2/43 (target is 12/42)
 
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...
 
I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time" [:D]
 
Speaking about tracker... after we upgraded to the latest beta, Tracker stopped working.... I did everything i could (changing the .dll file etc) but nothing worked... so i think i'll have to reinstall it...thus losing all the data of these first 8 months [:(]

[JocMeister]

My take on the Zero as an Allied player: It not very good so I think not focusing on it is a good thing! [:)]

[koniu]

After A6M5 there is almost no point in R&D Zero line.
Of course You get armor but paying for that with speed and range.
In `44 there will be no difference if You are flying M5 or M8. Against modern allied fighters they are dying the same.

Frank and George is what You need asap and in numbers. And having few more R&D factories will allow You to move some to production and still keeping few to research late versions and have them earlier.

Edit:
As for tracker, for me it also end with losing database. But after tracker load from fresh install everything is working ok.

[GreyJoy]

I know the zero line is a "dead" one, but at least, with the "rufe trick" you are able to move forward of many months the production of the A6M5, while for Franks and George the reapair rate is so slow that i doubt i'll be able to benefit of many months of advancing, even if i invested a lot in those 2 production lines.
 
Also, while the Frank is clearly a superior aircraft that can fight at fair terms with everything except the P-47 and the Corsair, the george is really slow (360 mph) and slower even than the P-40k... so even if it's a clear improvement from the Zero, it hasn't the qualities to deserve a so huge investment in terms of resources allocation.
So to say: it will for sure be helpful, but having it on the 3/43 or on 7/43 won't change things much imho...
 
 

[GreyJoy]

So i'm going to London on thursday evening...
Obvert: i reserved at Yauatcha and at Joe Allen in Covent Garden, booked the Theatre (Her Majesty) and the Hotel (The Cavendish in mayfair) and now i'm trying to book for the Tate modern...  what about having a beer somewhere?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

So i'm going to London on thursday evening...
Obvert: i reserved at Yauatcha and at Joe Allen in Covent Garden, booked the Theatre (Her Majesty) and the Hotel (The Cavendish in mayfair) and now i'm trying to book for the Tate modern...  what about having a beer somewhere?

Aha! I'll PM you some things. Have plans on Friday but could meet up if you have time on Saturday. Also, I have a Tate membership +1 you are welcome to use if you'd like.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I know the zero line is a "dead" one, but at least, with the "rufe trick" you are able to move forward of many months the production of the A6M5, while for Franks and George the reapair rate is so slow that i doubt i'll be able to benefit of many months of advancing, even if i invested a lot in those 2 production lines.

Also, while the Frank is clearly a superior aircraft that can fight at fair terms with everything except the P-47 and the Corsair, the george is really slow (360 mph) and slower even than the P-40k... so even if it's a clear improvement from the Zero, it hasn't the qualities to deserve a so huge investment in terms of resources allocation.
So to say: it will for sure be helpful, but having it on the 3/43 or on 7/43 won't change things much imho...

I'd keep the Shiden and Hayate under R&D any way. You may not advance N1K1-J or Ki-84 more than 3-4 months tops, but their lines arent dead ends: N1K2-J is in many ways the best IJNAF fighter after A7M and J7W1 Shinden with more speed than the first model and service rating of 2. Ki-84a upgrades to Ki-84r(mid/late 1945) which is the best IJAAF fighter not counting expensive Ki-83 or Ki-94 that both become available even later and have no earlier models to help the R&D.

On the N1K1-J: PzB, who mass-deployed them, found them better fighters than the Ki-84a and in his opinion it wasnt pilot skill difference or difference in how they were used. IIRC he thought that the quad cannons helped just that much both when they got to take a shot at a fighter and especially against bombers. With layered CAP you sooner or later get to bounce the sweepers/escorts so in bigger air battles it could very well be better, but I have no first hand experience in WitPAE(In Il-2 the Ki-84 is of course superior thanks to its speed [8D][;)]).

[kmitahj]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time" [:D]

Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Getting the George earlier is worth the effort. This thingie is simply awesome. Mid war the only tool you have to stop hvy. bombers and still a capable fighter. If it only would be carrier capable [:(] In 1943 Zeros are flying coffins.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: kmitahj

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time" [:D]

Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).

What kmitahj says is within probability - correct. Given days to full repair = days to availability * (1 - 1/e) which equals 0.63%.

My chart below shows this for the Frank 1/07/1944 (Non-US date convention) fully repaired dates starting at different 100 incremental days (937d from 7/12/41 - 1/07/1944).

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: kmitahj

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time" [:D]

Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).

What kmitahj says is within probability - correct. Given days to full repair = days to availability * (1 - 1/e) which equals 0.63%.

My chart below shows this for the Frank 1/07/1944 (Non-US date convention) fully repaired dates starting at different 100 incremental days (937d from 7/12/41 - 1/07/1944).

I have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!

The game is moving slow...nothing is happening on the map, waiting for the next allied push.
We reached july 18th and Japan is busy re-organizing its defences. Tomorrow we'll try to bomb Manila....we have 3 divisions and a Bde there, with an army HQ and a command HQ fully prepped.

2 more divisions are being loading at Balikapan. They'll be sent to the Mariannas and to the Sopac, in order to start building some deep defences.

A part from the building up in nopac and NW oz, the allies are silent.... Even at PH our glen equipped subs aren't spotting anything particular..... This silence isn't exactly promising....

[kmitahj]

have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!

No need to understand math to take advantage from its results. Nowadays mathemathics seem to be like ancient wizardy understood only for a few "choosen" [;)]
About your doubts... Note that R&D is two-stage process. First stage is getting R&D factories to fully repaired state. This part is long and stochastic in nature (that is unless you use cheap trick of no-damage transition along aircraft upgrade path). My post above and Damian table are all related to estimating time needed to get this first stage done. As it is random process (chain of everyday die rolls to check success or failure of single repair attempt) one can only estimate expected time needed for full repair. That 0.63 factor (or 63% if you prefer) is such mathematicaly precise estimation for single factory. And because repairs of multiple factories are basically independent (actually there is small potential dependency but it can be neglected for practical purposes) you don't need to take into account number of factories at this stage. Note also that because estimation is all we have then in practical cases when using multiple factories we will see that some of them will finish repair before estimated date while others will likely lag behind.

Only after given factory reach fully repaired state it enters second stage - producing r/d points. This part of the process is fully deterministic as long as you use factories of size 30+. It is also only in that part when the number of factories you decided to invest into months ago does really matter. We know we need 100 r/d pts to get a month of advance and we know that each repaired factory of size 30+ delivers 1 r/d point every day (two points if engine bouns is at work) so from that point onward all is a matter of simple math.

Back again to the Damian table for Ki-84: dates listed at last row of the table are estimations of the moment where factories are expected to enter the second stage - producing r/d points. They are not - I'm sure that it is clear but just to be sure it is worth to reiterate - they are not dates when Frank is expected to enter into production.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: kmitahj

have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!

No need to understand math to take advantage from its results. Nowadays mathemathics seem to be like ancient wizardy understood only for a few "choosen" [;)]
About your doubts... Note that R&D is two-stage process. First stage is getting R&D factories to fully repaired state. This part is long and stochastic in nature (that is unless you use cheap trick of no-damage transition along aircraft upgrade path). My post above and Damian table are all related to estimating time needed to get this first stage done. As it is random process (chain of everyday die rolls to check success or failure of single repair attempt) one can only estimate expected time needed for full repair. That 0.63 factor (or 63% if you prefer) is such mathematicaly precise estimation for single factory. And because repairs of multiple factories are basically independent (actually there is small potential dependency but it can be neglected for practical purposes) you don't need to take into account number of factories at this stage. Note also that because estimation is all we have then in practical cases when using multiple factories we will see that some of them will finish repair before estimated date while others will likely lag behind.

Only after given factory reach fully repaired state it enters second stage - producing r/d points. This part of the process is fully deterministic as long as you use factories of size 30+. It is also only in that part when the number of factories you decided to invest into months ago does really matter. We know we need 100 r/d pts to get a month of advance and we know that each repaired factory of size 30+ delivers 1 r/d point every day (two points if engine bouns is at work) so from that point onward all is a matter of simple math.

Back again to the Damian table for Ki-84: dates listed at last row of the table are estimations of the moment where factories are expected to enter the second stage - producing r/d points. They are not - I'm sure that it is clear but just to be sure it is worth to reiterate - they are not dates when Frank is expected to enter into production.

Thank you Kmitahj! Very clear now!!

[GreyJoy]

So we're back to the war and i'm back from london.

First of all, i'd like to spend a couple of words for Obvert.

I met him on saturday. I was on a small vacation trip for my GF's BBday in London. Erik (Obvert) was so kind to come and meet us at Covent Garden and he offered us a wonderfull coffea.
We drunk our coffea in this small square, full of artists, music and coloured people from all over the world...
Unfortunately i coulnd't stay much cause it was Valentina's day and i had promised her to devote the whole week end to her...

However Erik was very very kind and understood the situation...

It's strange to meet someone you only talked to in an internet forum. You always imagine the "others" like some kind of geeks (or "nerds"...Erik tought me the difference! [:)])...it's hard to realize that behind the monitor are living normal people like you, interesting and charming like you'd like to be and perfectly "normal" [:D]

Well, Erik is much more than "normal". A good-looking man with a charming smile. Polite, kind and open.
Valentina (who's not exactly the most "social" person out there) immediately liked him (she noted, for example, that, while talking about sweeps, AF bombings, CVs and subs, Erik always looked at both of us, trying not to make her feel "outside" of the conversation.... ok, i know this is considered a normal form of politeness but... you know... it's always a good thing to discover in a person you just met!) and said he is the kind of guy she would let give her a ride home if her car would be stuck in the middle of a solitare road during the night... And i can't but confirm her feeling!

Thank you Erik! I'll be back soon in London (for sure for the next Wimbledon championships) and i promise we'll have a much longer time to spend togheder!


Now back to war...

Nothing happened on the 20th July... Brad moved in China some 70 P-40Es (noticed 4 ops losses! [;)])...from Ledo to Chengtu.-...clearly trying to ambush my bombers that are burning his supply dumps in Chukkiang, Kienko and Chungking.... luckly i noticed it before he could do anything... now i'm transfering a couple of Tojo Sentais in the area and will be sweeping for the next week or so.

For the rest, Zuikaku and Shokaku are joining the rest of the KB at Ponape, while his subs are bringing the war near Hokkaido (sinking a PB this turn)...counted not less than 4 enemy subs near Hakodate... well, luckly i have some decent ASW air assets in that area and i'm confident i can keep them more or less at Bay for the moment.

KI-44 IIc advances to 12/43!...not bad!

A regiment and a Bde are flowing to Ramree Island, while the 15th Army is moving to attack Paoshan (western China).

Still no signs of enemy CVs. The only enemy ships spotted are those in NOPAC (near Ducth Harbour and around Addak)...i'm sure he'll advance here once again in the nearby future... but i don't want to fight on those waters...he can have the Aleutinas if he really wants them. I'll keep on reinforcing the Kuriles and the Marshalls for the moment.

More troops are arriving into Timor Area, which is being built pretty well now, with lots of interconnected AFs and several Air HQs. If he moves in this area i can give him a warm welcome!