Tackling the Russian bear (No Tarhunnas pls)

[juret]

nice pocket. Looking forward to next update

[Peltonx]

Good to see your back!!

[janh]

Great work. So that's what the Kursk pocket could have looked like... just a year earlier. When I first saw the planning screens with the thick mass of divisions holding between Tula-Orel my first thought was that you'd get stuck halfway thru, but it seems your Wehrmacht still packs and enormous punch, whereas SHC is soft like butter, just as you said.

What part of your Panzer- and Infantrie-Divisionen (Mot.) have you employed here? Do you have significant reserves elsewhere, or were all involved?

[TulliusDetritus]

WOW! Fabulous pocket [&o]

Tarhunnas is in trouble. My 1942 summer campaign started basically this way: a big pocket => destroyed units => thinner frontline => panzers Death Star every single turn until mud => run run run [:(]

I suspect that's what Tarhunnas will be forced to do.

[glvaca]

ORIGINAL: janh

Great work. So that's what the Kursk pocket could have looked like... just a year earlier. When I first saw the planning screens with the thick mass of divisions holding between Tula-Orel my first thought was that you'd get stuck halfway thru, but it seems your Wehrmacht still packs and enormous punch, whereas SHC is soft like butter, just as you said.

What part of your Panzer- and Infantrie-Divisionen (Mot.) have you employed here? Do you have significant reserves elsewhere, or were all involved?

I had the same doubts when planning the operation, especially after experiencing the first blizzard combats effects for so long, but it was really easy to break his line and exploit to form the pocket. Overall I think the contant counter attacks during late January and through February did contribute to his weakness. Many divisions were routed time and again & fort contruction was seriously obstructed resulting in a lot of depth but with little forts to increase the defense.

All Pz & Mot divs were committed in the offensive with the exception of 2 Pz Divs, 3 Mot Divs & 2 Mot SS Divs (Tot & LAH) which were employed in local counter attacks to capture either better defensive terrain, RR's or river bridgeheads all along the front.

Here's the condition of the panzers start of turn 41, this is after a winter and 3 turns of action during snow. They're in great shape morale wise but now need a couple of turns to refit.

[glvaca]

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

WOW! Fabulous pocket [&o]

Tarhunnas is in trouble. My 1942 summer campaign started basically this way: a big pocket => destroyed units => thinner frontline => panzers Death Star every single turn until mud => run run run [:(]

I suspect that's what Tarhunnas will be forced to do.

There's an added complication for Tarhunnas. This is March, the summer campaign hasn't started [8D]
Secondly, he's gonna have more than 10 turns to gather strength which will probably give him around 1 million new recruits.
Thirdly, we are playing the 260VP variant and I only have 15VP left to go...
The OKH is still planning the next months and the summer campaign but suffice to say, I'll go all out to end the campaign in 1942.

Victory points:

[glvaca]

Losses at the end of blizzard.
As can be seen from the ss, from the start of T38 till the end of the German T41 the Soviets have suffered major losses during Snow.

Looking at the 362948 Russian soldiers captured during this period I estimate the pocket to have been close to 400K. I'll post a list of units distroyed when I get the turn back.

German losses for this period has been considerable but not prohibitive.

[glvaca]

OOB end of T41:

[glvaca]

Production.
I'm keeping a close eye on my Armaments pool. The ss is filtered on only German info.
The last few turns I'm slowly bringing TOE's up to 100% for selected SU's. Most of the infantry is now between 70 and 75 morale & close to 80+% TOE.
I don't think I can wish for a better starting position for summer '42. The main question will be: how fast can the Stavka make good it's losses and how much of defense can they put up? I have no doubt the Stavka is aware of the mortal danger it is in & will do everything it can to prevent an auto victory during the coming summer.

[glvaca]

TURN 39
The pocket holds!
This is the only ss I have for this turn. Basically, with the pocket established and holding, I set out to redeuce the pocket from all directions.
At the same time, I keep pushing towards Tula and in the the direction of Voronezh. Which is phase 2 of the operation.

[glvaca]

TURN 40

PHASE 2 - ESTABLISH FAVORABLE BRIDGEHEADS FOR FUTHER OFFENSIVES
With the pocket firmly established and already seriously reduced, phase 2 of the operation is executed. It's aim is to capture key terrain that will facilitate further offensives in the area. 2nd & 4th Pz Armies aim for Tula and the land bridge to the East of it.
1st Pz Army heads full steam for Voronezh with orders to capture it, cross the upper Don in strength & establish a strong bridgehead.
Special care is taken to capture key RR's along the way.

[M60A3TTS]

I suspect that wound will be mortal. He's under 4 milion and suffered a major counter loss that will be a huge AP cost to replace. You're in a good position to keep his middle weak and continue to gobble him up.

[glvaca]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I suspect that wound will be mortal. He's under 4 milion and suffered a major counter loss that will be a huge AP cost to replace. You're in a good position to keep his middle weak and continue to gobble him up.

It might be, but I'm not going to take that for granted. Tarhannus is surely facing a challenge but he has been playing very well. After the pocket was sealed I asked him why he did not retreat and he answered he underestimated the German mobility during snow. I'm amazed myself how easy it is to advance without having to worry about rivers, so the decision to stay is one I may have made myself if the roles were reversed.

Thinking on this, his situation is no worse than others in other AAR's. He can still recover and reclaim a lot territory. Although making it to Berlin is another question. The biggest, new, element in the mix is the 245VP score. Denying me the remaining VP's is no doubt central in his plans for the summer, while capturing them is my strategic goal. This will be interesting!

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: glvaca
After the pocket was sealed I asked him why he did not retreat and he answered he underestimated the German mobility during snow. I'm amazed myself how easy it is to advance without having to worry about rivers, so the decision to stay is one I may have made myself if the roles were reversed.

Well, you have certainly played an excellent game, but I think that your pocket shows that the "March Madness" issue has not gone away. Granted, you had a pretty easy Blizzard, but still...

As you mention, crossing rivers in particular should be more difficult, as the broken ice and floes often made them impossible to cross at this time of year except at bridges.

In any event, I don't see this game going more than 5-6 turns of clear weather before you hit the VPs you need, so good game.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: 76mm
Well, you have certainly played an excellent game, but I think that your pocket shows that the "March Madness" issue has not gone away. Granted, you had a pretty easy Blizzard, but still...

I don't think in this case one could speak of "March Madness". This is different now, and I find it justified in this case. The power of the Wehrmacht offensive is more of strategic scale here, and it still packs a huge punch whereas the SHC units seem to be even weaker than usual.
Open the 1942 GC scenario and check the forces on both sides, particularly the Wehrmacht strengths. That is the reference scenario in which a strong March offensive is not credible, but here it is just like the start of the 41 campaign over again.

All that doesn't come as a surprise. On page 5 you can read plenty of comments that already suggested after turn 16 that this game was pretty much done for Tarhunnas. Obviously even the recovery some people have pointed to has not really fruited yet. Even if Tarhunnas prevents the 260VP, his recovery will be so slow that Berlin is out of question unless Axis will play foolish and reckless from now on.

After turn 16, and the huge Moscow pocket with some 500k SHC in there if I recall correctly, Tarhunnas was down to 3M men before winter. That is well below the 4.5-5M mark that usually gives an "average/mediocre" blizzard performance. Even the blizzard penalties were of little use given the whipping that SHC had suffered in the summer campaign. I think this is one of the cases were the swings in initiatives and strengths are more pronounced, and this game was far off the tiny middle path already after turn 6ish. And by turn 17 it was simply an Axis major victory.

The game engine is just not dynamic enough at this point to account for GC courses that are either poorer or better than average, adjusting economy, production, reinforcement schedules or lend-and-lease down or up to the real course. I imagine in this course of events the Reds would have gotten more help from the West, and would also have taken more severe (drafting) measures to gain replacements. But all these parameters are set as if the course was just historical, and Tarhunnas faced tough challenge to recover after turn 16. I think he could well have folded then.

[Peltonx]

Most times SHC is at 6+ million and not 4 million by this time.

[Flaviusx]

This game was over a long time ago.

[glvaca]

15 VP's may not sound like much, but getting enough involves vast distances or covering highly defensible terrain.
The Stavka has 10 turns to get his army back into shape. The most important variable at this time is: how much defensive (and offensive) strength can he gain during this period. My March offensive caught him at the most favorable moment (which explains musch of its success).
1. His units were worn out at the end of the blizzard offensive.
2. He was not dugin.
3. His supply/transportation lines were no doubt less then optimal.
4. The strategic situation was unfavorable with the above conditions.

Players like Tarhunnas (for whom I have the highest regard as a player and person) thirve when the going gets tough. I have no doubt that we will see his best game yet. This ain't over, until the fat lady signs! (anybody knows where that came from?)

[glvaca]

Personally I still think that the following system for handling manpower would be better:
1. split the SU into the districts.
2. determine the total replacement capacity per district. Keeping in mind that the Russians first called up men in the immediate combat zone.
3. the Soviet army remained fairly constant during the first years, determine that level.
4. determine total replacement capacity over the course of the war per district.
5. gear replacements per turn towards achieving and maintaining the level set in point 3.

When the Soviet runs out (or whenever level reached of the total pool preferred), tune down replacements.

So, an example.
Say that the total replacement pool for the Soviet union would be 30 million men (just a figure).
When the war start, everything received as replacements is deducted from the 30m number. Districts (cities) in the combat zone are sucked dry first. This would give incentive to fight forward as the Soviet). When a district is lost, the unused potential is subtractred from the 30m.
Keep feeding replacements into the Army at a much increased number if lower than the level determined as being the average level of the SU army (above in point 3).
Reduce replacements if close or above of that level.
If the 30m are spent, replacements dry out, whether it is 42-43 or 45.

This, no doubt, can be improved upon. But the basic principle is clear and its effects would certainly reduce the manpower issues the SU faces currently.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: glvaca

15 VP's may not sound like much, but getting enough involves vast distances or covering highly defensible terrain.
The Stavka has 10 turns to get his army back into shape. The most important variable at this time is: how much defensive (and offensive) strength can he gain during this period. My March offensive caught him at the most favorable moment (which explains musch of its success).
1. His units were worn out at the end of the blizzard offensive.
2. He was not duging.
3. His supply/transportation lines were no doubt less then optimal.
4. The strategic situation was unfavorable with the above conditions.

Players like Tarhunnas (for whom I have the highest regard as a player and person) thirve when the going gets tough. I have no doubt that we will see his best game yet. This ain't over, until the fat lady signs! (anybody knows where that came from?)

You can easly drive to Moscow and get that, but have some fun first pocketing units at will. He has zero chance.