OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'

[SuluSea]

I feel fortunate that the storm accelerated before it made land fall. I was worried about the saturated ground effects on the root system of some very large oaks near the house. Because of the potential of a slow moving storm with lots of rain/wind I rode the storm out in a safer home. Last year Irene made my yard a mess and witnessed some oaks bending in such a way that I didn't think they were capable. I stayed elsewhere during Isabel but like Irene the twigs. leaves, limbs was everywhere. We didn't get too much of that from this storm.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Schanilec

Well it appears to be over. It was bad; but not as nearly as basd as the Weather Channel storm whores made it out to be.

Governor Christie said on "Morning Joe" that there are freight cars ON the New Jersey Turnpike. I'd call that a storm surge. Fifty houses burned to the ground in Queens starting at 3AM, and the firefighters couldn't get close; on the edges they were trying to pull up sea water since the mains were dead. That was an evac area, but they know people defied it. They don't know fatalities. Atlantic City is half-erased; the first choppers are just getting up now. The NJ barrier islands are pretty hosed. They showed a bar/restaurant that had a 30-yd wide dune in front of it. The dune is gone, the front wall is gone and everythng that was in the restaurant is in the kitchen. Five feet of sand all the way to the back wall.

They think the best guess to get the subway tunnels to N. Jersey de-watered is four days. PATH trains and stations are flooded. Four major Manhattan electric substations are fully underwater. Over 100 sub-stations in New Jersey exploded and burned. The whole coast of New Jersey from Newark to Atlantic City is basically dark. First reports are outages are 300% worse than last year in Irene. The first estimates of $20 billion of damage are way low.

So really, the Weather Channel "storm whores", as you so kindly put it, don't know much. The governors of the several states do, and I've never seen Christie, who is a helluva governor, look more somber.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A hurricane with 80 to 90 mile an hour winds can be dangerous, though quite often winds of that strength are not going to be devastating.

What can be abstolutely, stunningly devastating is the storm surge. For those unfamiliar with hurricanes, storm surge isn't like "big waves." Storm surge is when the sea level actual rises as sustained winds push the ocean against land. It's kind of analogous to a tidal wave, though not as fast arriving or receding.

The storm surge during Hurricane Katrina was absolutley amazing. It was like sea level increased by 20 feet over the course of a few hours. Suddenly, houses were lifted off their foundations and floated down streets, careening into other buildings.

If the Middle Atlantic States experienced storm surge anything like that, the coastal areas affected will be in ruins. Hopefully, that didn't happen. I haven't gotten any reports yet that give me enough information to gauge the damage.

Philly recorded the lowest barometric pressure in recorded history. It was at high tide. It was by far the worst storm surge NYC has ever seen. You don't have a TV, but the Web is starting to show pictures. This will be the worst national disaster in financial terms in the history of the United States.

[Canoerebel]

Katrina (2005) and Andrew (1992) were about as bad as I can even imagine. If Sandra approached or exceeded either, wow. And that this happened in the most densely population seaboard of the country....ouch. [:(]

[rev rico]

Gents,
I live in southern Jersey near Philadelphia and work with religious and non-profit organizations throughout the region. Long Island and the Jersey shore have been devastated. I've personally contacted those on the coast who are helping with shelters. Many families are displaced with homes and businesses flooded. Most are without power and have limited phone service. Houses have been moved off foundations by the winds. Flooding has taken place where it never has before. Boardwalks have been washed away. I've been scrambling to get generators to one shelter because they have no power. The organization I work with is taking donations and organizing relief efforts for people in those affected areas.
http://www.cmalliance.org/news/2012/10/ ... northeast/

If you're one who prays, then please do so for those affected.

thanks
Bob
Rev Rico

[Schanilec]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Schanilec

Well it appears to be over. It was bad; but not as nearly as basd as the Weather Channel storm whores made it out to be.

Governor Christie said on "Morning Joe" that there are freight cars ON the New Jersey Turnpike. I'd call that a storm surge. Fifty houses burned to the ground in Queens starting at 3AM, and the firefighters couldn't get close; on the edges they were trying to pull up sea water since the mains were dead. That was an evac area, but they know people defied it. They don't know fatalities. Atlantic City is half-erased; the first choppers are just getting up now. The NJ barrier islands are pretty hosed. They showed a bar/restaurant that had a 30-yd wide dune in front of it. The dune is gone, the front wall is gone and everythng that was in the restaurant is in the kitchen. Five feet of sand all the way to the back wall.

They think the best guess to get the subway tunnels to N. Jersey de-watered is four days. PATH trains and stations are flooded. Four major Manhattan electric substations are fully underwater. Over 100 sub-stations in New Jersey exploded and burned. The whole coast of New Jersey from Newark to Atlantic City is basically dark. First reports are outages are 300% worse than last year in Irene. The first estimates of $20 billion of damage are way low.

So really, the Weather Channel "storm whores", as you so kindly put it, don't know much. The governors of the several states do, and I've never seen Christie, who is a helluva governor, look more somber.

Sorry.
But that is what I calling Weather Channel. I have given up on that channel several months ago. Weather on the 8's my ass with all their additional programming (Storm Stories for example) is when I began calling them storm whores. We have severe thunderstorms rolling in and I'm watching what!
Fortunately a local station began a weather channel 24-7. no more on the 8's.

Again sorry. I was jabbbing at the weather Channel.
I know the strom was bad. But sometimes I get the impression from above mentioned station that they'd be disappointed if it wasn't bad.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Katrina (2005) and Andrew (1992) were about as bad as I can even imagine. If Sandra approached or exceeded either, wow. And that this happened in the most densely population seaboard of the country....ouch. [:(]

The asset density is so much higher around NYC versus Katrina it's not even close. The pix CNN is showing are stunning. They have cameras down in the subways now, and there is salt water on the tracks about four feet deep the whole length of the system, and trash and debris floating up to the lips of the platforms. Even once they pump they're going to have to do fresh water washdowns of the entire trackage lenght or else they're going to arc and spark into immobility when they turn the juiice on. NYC without subways just doesn't function.

Gov. Christie came back from the helo survey looking like he'd seen Death itself. He was shaken up. Some of the footage from New Jersey looks like Europe after WWII. There are thousands of people trapped on barrier islands without water who didn't evacuate when told to. Mile after mile of beachfront homes are gone, covered to the second floor in sand. Multi-million dollar mansions in the Hamptons burned with no fire response. The burn toll in Queens near Laguardia is now 80 houses, and they don't know if there are dead. The total death toll is 29 and rising.

This is a big enough event it will have GDP impact, not to mention employment. Wall Street will lurch back into business tomorrow, not becaue it should but because the authorities are terrified what happens to markets if it's closed three days. Two days hasn't happened since the 1880s.

The NYC region airports are closed too. The runways at Laguardia were completely underwater last night and I think JFK had major flooding in the terminal. Over 15,000 flights have been canceled.

This is a big deal.

[Dili]

But sometimes I get the impression from above mentioned station that they'd be disappointed if it wasn't bad.

That is common in meteorological fan forums.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Schanilec

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Schanilec

Well it appears to be over. It was bad; but not as nearly as basd as the Weather Channel storm whores made it out to be.

Governor Christie said on "Morning Joe" that there are freight cars ON the New Jersey Turnpike. I'd call that a storm surge. Fifty houses burned to the ground in Queens starting at 3AM, and the firefighters couldn't get close; on the edges they were trying to pull up sea water since the mains were dead. That was an evac area, but they know people defied it. They don't know fatalities. Atlantic City is half-erased; the first choppers are just getting up now. The NJ barrier islands are pretty hosed. They showed a bar/restaurant that had a 30-yd wide dune in front of it. The dune is gone, the front wall is gone and everythng that was in the restaurant is in the kitchen. Five feet of sand all the way to the back wall.

They think the best guess to get the subway tunnels to N. Jersey de-watered is four days. PATH trains and stations are flooded. Four major Manhattan electric substations are fully underwater. Over 100 sub-stations in New Jersey exploded and burned. The whole coast of New Jersey from Newark to Atlantic City is basically dark. First reports are outages are 300% worse than last year in Irene. The first estimates of $20 billion of damage are way low.

So really, the Weather Channel "storm whores", as you so kindly put it, don't know much. The governors of the several states do, and I've never seen Christie, who is a helluva governor, look more somber.

Sorry.
But that is what I calling Weather Channel. I have given up on that channel several months ago. Weather on the 8's my ass with all their additional programming (Storm Stories for example) is when I began calling them storm whores. We have severe thunderstorms rolling in and I'm watching what!
Fortunately a local station began a weather channel 24-7. no more on the 8's.

Again sorry. I was jabbbing at the weather Channel.
I know the strom was bad. But sometimes I get the impression from above mentioned station that they'd be disappointed if it wasn't bad.

I apologize for snapping at you. I've been home watching this build all day and it's as bad as anything I've ever seen weather-wise. It's like a war happened last night.

Sorry here too.

[Bullwinkle58]

Just glanced at the news:

Death toll now at 38.

Damage estimates raised to circa $50 billion.

25% of the cell towers in 10 states were knocked out, and many remaining are running on diesel backups which will probably run out of fuel before the grid is back up. There are spreading Web outages since so much traffic runs through NYC data centers.

[decaro]

ORIGINAL: Schanilec

Well it appears to be over. It was bad; but not as nearly as basd as the Weather Channel storm whores made it out to be.

The same "storm whores" who had previously prostituted themselves for "Global Warming"?

From what I've seen, very large storms need a lot of water vapor, and once they're over land, they start to collapse under their own millibars of weight.

[Sredni]

What I find sad about things like this is that nothing will change. A storm like this won't happen again for 50 years or a 100 years and in that time people will go back to ignoring the possibility of it happening at all. Then another "frankenstorm" will roll up and cause another 50 billion dollars (or however much that will inflate to) worth of damage with absolutely nobody prepared for it.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Sredni

What I find sad about things like this is that nothing will change. A storm like this won't happen again for 50 years or a 100 years and in that time people will go back to ignoring the possibility of it happening at all. Then another "frankenstorm" will roll up and cause another 50 billion dollars (or however much that will inflate to) worth of damage with absolutely nobody prepared for it.

There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: Sredni

What I find sad about things like this is that nothing will change. A storm like this won't happen again for 50 years or a 100 years and in that time people will go back to ignoring the possibility of it happening at all. Then another "frankenstorm" will roll up and cause another 50 billion dollars (or however much that will inflate to) worth of damage with absolutely nobody prepared for it.

There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

First of all, such as what?

Most importantly, the fact that things happened a hundred or two hundred years ago does not mean mean that this time it's our fault. The GW theory has some very specific projections that simply are not happening. One such is that the increased CO2 (which alone can not cause much warming) causes increased moisture in certain layers of the atmosphere, and that in turn causes the runaway warming. The increased moisture in those layers of the atmosphere simply has not happened.

the pronouncements of politicians really has no place here.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: Sredni

What I find sad about things like this is that nothing will change. A storm like this won't happen again for 50 years or a 100 years and in that time people will go back to ignoring the possibility of it happening at all. Then another "frankenstorm" will roll up and cause another 50 billion dollars (or however much that will inflate to) worth of damage with absolutely nobody prepared for it.

There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

First of all, such as what?

Most importantly, the fact that things happened a hundred or two hundred years ago does not mean mean that this time it's our fault. The GW theory has some very specific projections that simply are not happening. One such is that the increased CO2 (which alone can not cause much warming) causes increased moisture in certain layers of the atmosphere, and that in turn causes the runaway warming. The increased moisture in those layers of the atmosphere simply has not happened.

the pronouncements of politicians really has no place here.

warspite1

+1

[Chickenboy]

Witpqs is right. If you wish to debate the anthrogenic cause and effect impact on climate change, that's a wonderful topic for discussion in a different OT thread.

No politician in their right mind would take this opportunity on the public stage to point at their own inadequacies for preparation. Their pronouncements about cause and effect and their culpability in damage wrought are particularly dubious at this juncture.

[Canoerebel]

[:D]

[Sredni]

Global warming is kinda immaterial to these sorts of disasters, whether you believe in man made global warming or not.

A storm like this would and will happen with or without global warming. All it takes is the right circumstances and you get the "100 year storm", which have been happening throughout human history. Loong before anyone thinks we were contributing to global warming. I'm sure 5000 years ago there were little indian villages along the eastern coast of america that got wiped out by their own 100 year storms.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: Sredni

What I find sad about things like this is that nothing will change. A storm like this won't happen again for 50 years or a 100 years and in that time people will go back to ignoring the possibility of it happening at all. Then another "frankenstorm" will roll up and cause another 50 billion dollars (or however much that will inflate to) worth of damage with absolutely nobody prepared for it.

There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

First of all, such as what?

Most importantly, the fact that things happened a hundred or two hundred years ago does not mean mean that this time it's our fault. The GW theory has some very specific projections that simply are not happening. One such is that the increased CO2 (which alone can not cause much warming) causes increased moisture in certain layers of the atmosphere, and that in turn causes the runaway warming. The increased moisture in those layers of the atmosphere simply has not happened.

the pronouncements of politicians really has no place here.

I believe I read when I posted this Irene, Sandy, and 1 other. Sorry, I don't copy every news article I come across. I found another reference, I will go with the local govenor as I live in Denver.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0 ... 55312.html

Thing One: Another Year, Another Hundred-Year Storm: "I'm never gonna use the phrase hundred-year storm again," New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said in a press conference yesterday, "because we've had three of those, three hundred-year storms, in the past three years."

Your ideas on GW only account for 1 view. I'll not get into an argument here over such simplistic thinking.

As for the pronouncement of politicians, sticking your head in the sand does nothing either.

[Chickenboy]

1954-1964 were interesting times for New Yorkers vis a vis Hurricanes:

1954 — Hurricane Hazel - wind gust of 113 mph at Battery Park, highest ever recorded in New York City.

August 31, 1954 — Hurricane Carol makes landfall on Long Island and produces wind gusts of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on Montauk Point.[3] On eastern Long Island near where Carol made landfall, a pressure of 960 mbar is recorded.[28] Winds on the island gust to 120 mph (195 km/h). The hurricane's storm surge covers the Montauk Highway in Montauk, effectively isolating eastern Long Island for a period of time. Due to the compact nature of the storm, most of Long Island is largely unaffected by the hurricane.[28] Specific damage totals for New York are unknown, although the storm in its entirety causes $460 million (1954 USD) in damage.[28]

September 10, 1954 — Hurricane Edna tracks to the east of Long Island producing 9 inches (230 mm) of rain.[3] Prior to the storm, New York City orders an emergency standby for the majority of its hospitals, and subways.[29]

August 13, 1955 — Hurricane Connie produces 13.24 inches (370 mm) of rain in Southeast New York, although damage is unknown.[30]

September 28, 1956 — Hurricane Flossy tracks to the south of Long Island, brushing it with light rainfall.[31]

October 1, 1959 — The remnants of Hurricane Gracie track into Central New York and drops up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[32]

September 11, 1960 — Hurricane Donna makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) on eastern Long Island and 70 mph (110 km/h) winds on western Long Island are reported, and tides are 6 feet (2 m) above normal along most of the coast. Strong waves also cause beach erosion and several homes along the shore to be destroyed. Due to well-executed warnings, damages are extremely low, and it is reported that no deaths result from the storm.[33]

September 21, 1961 — Hurricane Esther causes $3 million (1961 USD, $20 million 2007 USD) in damage in Suffolk County as it tracks to the east of Long Island. Coastal areas of Long Island were flooded, as well as storm surge and wind gusts of 108 mph (173 km/h), which causes 260,000 homes to be left without power.[34]

October 8, 1962 — Hurricane Daisy tracks east of New England, producing light rainfall in extreme eastern portions of Upstate New York.[35]

September 23, 1964 — Beach erosion and moderate wind gusts are reported on Long Island as Hurricane Gladys tracks a couple hundred miles south of New York.[36]