OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'

[Chickenboy]

What a monster this one was-in 1938. Can you imagine the relative damage such a powerful storm would do with the population density there now?:

September 21, 1938 — The New England Hurricane of 1938 (Also Called "The Long Island Express") makes landfall on Suffolk County (Long Island) as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[21] Wind gusts of 125 mph (200 km/h) and storm surge of 18 feet (5 m) washes across part of the island.[22] In New York 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries were attributed to the storm.[23] In addition, 2,600 boats and 8,900 houses are destroyed.[24] Throughout New England the hurricane killed over 682 people,[25] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $4.7 billion (2005 US dollars).[26]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lecivius



There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

First of all, such as what?

Most importantly, the fact that things happened a hundred or two hundred years ago does not mean mean that this time it's our fault. The GW theory has some very specific projections that simply are not happening. One such is that the increased CO2 (which alone can not cause much warming) causes increased moisture in certain layers of the atmosphere, and that in turn causes the runaway warming. The increased moisture in those layers of the atmosphere simply has not happened.

the pronouncements of politicians really has no place here.

I believe I read when I posted this Irene, Sandy, and 1 other. Sorry, I don't copy every news article I come across. I found another reference, I will go with the local govenor as I live in Denver.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0 ... 55312.html

Thing One: Another Year, Another Hundred-Year Storm: "I'm never gonna use the phrase hundred-year storm again," New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said in a press conference yesterday, "because we've had three of those, three hundred-year storms, in the past three years."

Your ideas on GW only account for 1 view. I'll not get into an argument here over such simplistic thinking.

As for the pronouncement of politicians, sticking your head in the sand does nothing either.

warspite1

I shouldn't say anything but what the hell, the phrases above are like a red rag to a bull I'm afraid:

1. The phrase 100-year event DOES NOT mean we get one every 100 years like clockwork. Mother nature does not work that way.

2. Simplistic? If GW is all to do with human beings and what we are doing to the planet then tell me this. Why has the earth had so many ice ages? Why so many shifts in temperature? Why haven't the two poles always been covered with ice? One small example - look at the UK in medieval times - it was like Greece is now... Is that because of all the greenhouse gases they were pumping into the atmosphere back then?

3. Why, on the news, do so many events start with: "the worst [storm/hurricane/flood] for [50/60/70] years. How can that be? You are saying that all these recent events are all the worst EVER.

I will tell you what is simplistic. The thought that we humans somehow have a decisive say on what happens on this planet of ours. Well we don't, we are mere pawns of mother nature. To think otherwise is just hubris.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Lecivius



There have been 3 'Hundred Year events' in the last year in this area alone. Andrew Cumo has said that anyone that denies Global Warming now is either blind or ignorant. The Atlantic is 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer than it was last year at this time. The death toll according to AP is 60 and rising, the cost is over 50 billion in damage [X(] And bear in mind most of these people do not have flood insurance. Those homes destroyed by fire in Queens were the lucky ones, they are covered by home owners insurance. The guy across the street with water stains on the second floor is just SOL.

First of all, such as what?

Most importantly, the fact that things happened a hundred or two hundred years ago does not mean mean that this time it's our fault. The GW theory has some very specific projections that simply are not happening. One such is that the increased CO2 (which alone can not cause much warming) causes increased moisture in certain layers of the atmosphere, and that in turn causes the runaway warming. The increased moisture in those layers of the atmosphere simply has not happened.

the pronouncements of politicians really has no place here.

I believe I read when I posted this Irene, Sandy, and 1 other. Sorry, I don't copy every news article I come across. I found another reference, I will go with the local govenor as I live in Denver.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0 ... 55312.html

Thing One: Another Year, Another Hundred-Year Storm: "I'm never gonna use the phrase hundred-year storm again," New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said in a press conference yesterday, "because we've had three of those, three hundred-year storms, in the past three years."

Your ideas on GW only account for 1 view. I'll not get into an argument here over such simplistic thinking.

As for the pronouncement of politicians, sticking your head in the sand does nothing either.

Your insult about "simplistic thinking" is both unbecoming and wrong. The climate models which are used as the basis of the IPCC's claims are themselves based on the very foundation that I mentioned. It is not merely "1 view", it is the 'official' view of the IPCC. I have heard other views that are more along the lines of 'it's just happening!', but I don't take those seriously.

[Canoerebel]

Back in the early '90s, we had a series of very wet years here in northwest Georgia. We were getting 50- and 100-year rain and flood events multiple times a year. Everybody thought the climate had gone nuts and we were done for. We haven't had a 50- or 100-year event since then. In fact, it's been extraodinarily dry for the past 10 to 15 years. Now everybody thinks the end is coming. Nature is, by its nature, cyclical.

Edited: To omit final sentence, which was too political in nature to pass the "smell test."

[MineSweeper]

Went through Kitty Hawk, NC today.....pretty bad...I am sure that it is not as bad as what happened up north....
This is Highway 12 (Beach Road) in Kitty Hawk

[Chickenboy]

On the positive side, I've been very impressed with some of the Hurricane tracking models used lately. Very accurate. I couldn't believe that Sandy would take that terminal left hook (almost 90 degrees) that the forecasters suggested in their models, yet turn she did-right where they said she would. [&o]

[Canoerebel]

From what I've read in the newspaper this morning, that "left hook" forecast came from the European model (based somewhere in Great Britain, I think). The US models didn't get that right.

That was pretty stunning. Look back at SuluSea's first map from last week - that was three or four days ahead of landfall, and that's pretty much dead on target.

[Canoerebel]

Edit: I just looked at Sulu's map and it wasn't "three or four days out." But the maps three or four (and even five) days out were right on target - showing landfall in southern New Jersey. I mean, they were right on target. That's incredible. There was a hurricane early this season that hit the Gulf Coast - the one that came right during the Republican convention in Tampa in August. The forecasters had trouble with that one, continually shifting it west. At first it was to glance by Tampa heading due north, but it ended up several hundred miles west, coming ashore at New Orleans.

[Lecivius]

Sorry witpqs, we will have to agree to disagree. While your model takes in the atmospheric anomalies, it does not include thermo dynamics and it’s impact on thermohaline circulation. Your model is valid, but incomplete.

IMO

[US87891]

@ witpqs
@ Conoerebel
Some thoughts from a friend.

Off-shore ocean racing sailors have been using bathymetric data, taken by NOAA and BODC for over 16 years, for use in their own weather forecasting algorithms. The surface temperature of the central Atlantic mass has not changed. The surface temperature of the Gulf Stream varies by +/- 2 degrees, on average, in any given year, depending on the specific heat content of the Gulf of Mexico, and the position of the upwelling center of the Atlantic mass. Average Gulf Stream temp hasn’t changed in approx. 130 years.

Recent newsworthy tropical lows have been less organized. The barometrics aren’t as bad as hard ‘cane, but they extend over a wider area. This gives more fetch and more surface pressure release, resulting in higher sea levels (i.e., a greater surge at the land interface). A true Cat-big Hurricane would very likely result in the same, or even lower surge levels because of its area concentration. Storm surge results from volumetric math; the area of a low times the mass released by the pressure delta at sea level. Area is radius “squared”. Delta pressure is “linear”. Cat 1/TS Sandy had a peak surge of 15 feet which was the same as the Cat 4 that destroyed Galveston in1900.

The present weather patterns are very similar to those of 1921 and 22 and even closer to the period of the great New England flood of 1927.

I'm not surprised the ECM Model had a better forecast. They look more at higher latitudes and later seasons, because that's what drives Euro weather. Sandy was at the bottom of their latitude look and at the beginning of their trendings but they saw the Canada Low 'cause that's what they look for. Sandy was at the top of our latitude look and the end of our tropical low trendings, and we just didn't think to pull down that Northern Low./quote]

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Edit: I just looked at Sulu's map and it wasn't "three or four days out." But the maps three or four (and even five) days out were right on target - showing landfall in southern New Jersey. I mean, they were right on target. That's incredible. There was a hurricane early this season that hit the Gulf Coast - the one that came right during the Republican convention in Tampa in August. The forecasters had trouble with that one, continually shifting it west. At first it was to glance by Tampa heading due north, but it ended up several hundred miles west, coming ashore at New Orleans.

The storm forecasters weren't expecting such high air pressure over Tampa at that time... the localized high pressure system forced the hurrican to bear west... [;)]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

Sorry witpqs, we will have to agree to disagree. While your model takes in the atmospheric anomalies, it does not include thermo dynamics and it’s impact on thermohaline circulation. Your model is valid, but incomplete.

IMO

Of course we will. [8D]

It's not my model, it's the claim of the IPCC, which is the official organ of those promoting the Global Warming hypothesis.

And as far as the thermodynamics, that is the whole point and is certainly included. The absorption of IR by CO2 and by water vapor in the atmosphere, etc.

And the effects on the Atlantic Conveyor, which is what I take it you are referring to, is supposedly possible from a sudden and massive rush of fresh water into the North Atlantic, upsetting the density gradients that cause the waters of the Gulf Stream to sink once they cool (and start the return trip to the tropics as the Atlantic Conveyor). That was based on the notion that there is very little mixing aside from those strong currents, which has been found to be untrue. In any event the sudden, massive onrush of fresh water into the North Atlantic is supposed to occur when all the glaciers suddenly melt... which is not happening.

[floydg]

Just got my power back this afternoon. What a mess...

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: floydg

Just got my power back this afternoon. What a mess...

Hope it gets cleaned up quick, Bro. Good luck.

[JeffroK]

has anyone ever worked out they built the USA in the wrong place, what natural disasters dont you get!!

[obvert]

Plagues of locust?

[Canoerebel]

We do get plagues of locusts. For any of you who have never been to the southeast USA coast in March and April, I encourage you to stay away from the barrier islands and salt marsh areas. The sand gnats aka "no-see-ums" are the most horrendous things of all time. I got stuck on Cumberland Island, Georgia, in late March of 1983, and those things ate me alive. I had to wait hours for the ferry, all the while being feasted on by clouds (no exaggeration - clouds) of those tormentors. Ouch.

[bradfordkay]

There's also the story of the early years of the mormons in Utah. They were plagued by locusts but saved by seagulls. How much of it is true I cannot say...

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We do get plagues of locusts. For any of you who have never been to the southeast USA coast in March and April, I encourage you to stay away from the barrier islands and salt marsh areas. The sand gnats aka "no-see-ums" are the most horrendous things of all time. I got stuck on Cumberland Island, Georgia, in late March of 1983, and those things ate me alive. I had to wait hours for the ferry, all the while being feasted on by clouds (no exaggeration - clouds) of those tormentors. Ouch.

Dan, the sailors of the southeast swear by Avon's "Skin So Soft" lotion - they say that it is the best no-see-um deterrent ever made (at least they were saying that back in the eighties, which was the last time I sailed the Golden Coast. It worked for me...

[JohnDillworth]

I think the argument with global warming is whether it is caused by man or not. Fact of the matter is the Earth is getting warmer, fast. Remember the North West passage we read about in school? The one where all the explorers died because there was no North West passage, it was closed by ice. that is not longer true. The mythical passage is now open. Perhaps warming doesn't directly correspond to always warmer temperatures. 2 years ago I had 3 snow storms each dumping 3 feet of snow. I have only seen one of those in my life time. That was followed by a summer with 38+ days over 90 degrees. This is outside NYC! I'm 4 days plus without power now due to yet another 100 year storm. Hey, if you don't believe me let the satellite photos speak for themselves: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html. You can't explain this as just a seasonal fluctuation. Man made or not I will not say, but global warming is real, and it's here. Lots of folks in this forum are close to the environment and enjoy the outdoors. I know I do. I see whats happening. Maybe I'm just cranky because I have no power and haven't had a hot meal in a few days. Did manage to get to work at bit (I work on New Yorks 911 system, we did great)to recharge some devices but it's bad here. Gasoline is running out and civilized behavior is starting to fray around the edges. Time to go home, start a fire, pour a glass of wine, turn some music on the radio and be thankful for large paper books. Cahndlers "Campaigns of Napoleon" should keep me busy until the snow cames. http://www.amazon.com/The-Campaigns-Napoleon-David-Chandler/dp/0025236601