Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[ny59giants]

As Allies, I always move the two PBY-4 groups from Luzon to Diamond Harbor and Colombo. Those little 6 plane groups the Commonwealth get are not enough. [:(] Either you got lucky or CF hasn't sent enough subs to patrol between Rangoon and Georgetown/Sumatra area for you to run over. This may be an expensive lesson for him.

OT - Your Cowboy's play will give you an ulcer or heart attack by the end of the season. [:D]

[Cribtop]

His subs are sticking to the deep water hexes, and I intentionally stationed a horde of Jakes at nearby bases so he is used to being spotted by them. He doesn't have good air search out of Ceylon - I know this because my pickets are only spotted when they get within about 10 hexes of Trincomalee.

As for the 'Boys, well, barely beating a 2-8 team in a sloppy manner does not bode well. And yet, par for the course this season. They will either just miss the playoffs or just make them only to extend their streak of playoff losses. I'm glad the Spurs have started up again - they remind me what a disciplined and well coached organization with good management and ownership look like. Sigh.

[Cribtop]

PS noticed from Tracker that Hilo hit airfield 6 on the 16th.

[Cribtop]

January 17, 1943

Subs

We have a scare as S-41 is engaged by escorts of a convoy of stragglers for Whirlwind near Rangoon and only one hex away from KB. (Note - many AAR writers have decided to use the abbreviation MKB for mini-KB. Thus, to avoid confusion I'm going to switch from using MKB for Mega KB. I'll just refer to KB and, until further notice, KB includes all available flight decks except for Ryuho, which is completing repairs at Kure.) Fortunately, KB is unspotted.

4th Fleet

Eniwetok makes forts 4.

SE Fleet

Perhaps reacting to SigInt or coast watcher reports, today CF heavily recons Tulagi and spots our TFs loading 20th Division. We will abort the loading and pull back in case the enemy is up to something.

Efate goes to airfield 4.

Southern Army

Convoys are re-worked and begin to operate on their new routes.

Burma

The two UK Divisions cross the river and are one hex from Bhamo. An RTA infantry division and the RTA Cav division are at Bhamo with X3 terrain and level three forts. Mission is strictly delay.

Meiktila is occupied by Aussies. Dacca goes to airfield 9. I wonder what CF would think if he knew this rear area base is threatened?

Whirlwind

The fleet finishes loading base forces and departs Rangoon. Today we will round the point nearby and turn for the target. Tomorrow will be D minus 2. Landing on the 20th. From this day forward, Operation Whirlwind will have a separate section in the AAR. We begin final recon for airborne assaults behind the lines and today the transport groups fly into the launch bases. Everything is as ready as we can make it. Banzai!

[temagic]

Great update! Keep them coming...

[Cribtop]

I owe y'all a few days worth of entries, but wanted to give a quick update from the front as I issue the orders to hit the beaches.

There is no guarantee that we will succeed, but I can report almost complete operational surprise has been achieved. We are four hexes off Cox's Bazaar with DL 0/0. Banzai! [&o][X(]

[obvert]

Looking forward to the next few days. Nice work sneaking them in there. Banzai!

[Cribtop]

January 18, 1943

Subs

Gar duds on an xAKL near Toyohara. This sub is having really bad luck with duds.

Burma

Sinabang goes to airfield 2.

Whirlwind

A lucky enemy recon plane spots the CVL task force of KB as we round the point near Rangoon, complete with the "spotted enemy carriers" message. At first this causes concern, but then we realize that CF has spotted some CVLs entering the Bay of Bengal and a large convoy spotted by sub heading into Rangoon. He is likely to interpret this as cover for a major reinforcement of Burma, perhaps combined with a CV port raid of the type we have engaged in often in this game. The Op is on.

Recon confirms Tezpur is empty. Cribtop HQ decides to "go paras" on D minus 1 just in case CF is properly reading the tea leaves and rails something in at the last minute.

[jrcar]

Great job!

Cheers

Rob

[Cribtop]

January 19, 1943

A blessedly quiet day with air losses 0:0 for the first time in the war. Not what we expected but excellent news.

Subs

Escorts DC Snapper near Singers.

I-164, manning the sub screen near Viz, is DC'd for one penetrating hit by UK ASW. Two sub minelayers drop an offensive minefield at Chittagong in the night. One of the new 500 endurance midgets sails into the Noumea hex searching for prey.

SE Fleet

We will switch to a combination of air transport and small, expendable TFs to pull 20th Division out over time. CF continues to recon the place and it's too hot to risk major surface assets.

Whirlwind

D minus 1. Paras capture an undefended Tezpur, cutting the rail line into Assam.

We sail KB and the invasion fleet TFs into a position 4 hexes SSW of Cox's Bazaar. CAP is layered at 80% as we assume CF will put what LBA he has (B-25s and Blenheims) on nav attack with a big air search percentage. Instead, Admiral Nagumo is amazed to have a quiet day, with the DL for all TFs dropping to 0/0! How can this be? The enemy has allowed us to move into position without opposition. Nice.

Orders for D-Day. Two capital ship SCTFs and one DD only SCTF will provide close cover. Two infantry divisions will move into position and unload. KB will provide layered LRCAP to deal with the expected LBA. The Carrier TFs will remain in a hex carefully chosen to minimize the number of potential string bag attacks on the jewel of the IJN. That said, per the latest reports there are no enemy torpedo bombers in theater.

The die is cast. We run the replay tonight. Honestly, the biggest risk is that disruption from the landing may make it dicey to take Cox's Bazaar even with overwhelming force. It things go wrong, the huge second wave will simply divert to Rangoon for a conventional defense of Burma. However, if the base is taken, ideally on the 21st or 22nd, we will pour more divisions ashore and march on Chittagong and Dacca.

It is possible CF will sortie a fleet from Ceylon to interfere, but we would welcome this. We have hordes of subs, multiple LBA groups and the full might of KB to resist. Cribtop Intel doubts this scenario will come about.

We do believe the revelation of KB could trigger a move elsewhere, and put the Empire on alert for an invasion. Biggest fear is a move out of Perth toward Java or Timor, but by the time CF can arrive we should have re-positioned Combined Fleet to the area. As further support, a new CVE and the Yamato/Mushashi TF will arrive at Singers tomorrow.

After going over the orders three times, they were sent to Cuttlefish last night. We await the decision of the gods.

[Crackaces]

The big thing is to capture Kaylemo in my opinion. Operation "Extended Capital" cannot happen without a LOC from Imphal to Kaylemo. I assume wazzup is covered well also? If the IJA can bottle up the Brit's in that God awful rough jungle terrain .. you have enough cushion to defend Burma till '44 .. if they can get beans, bullets, and butts with supplies on Kaylemo .. it is Katy bar the door ..

Not sure how his airfield/supply situation looks but nice juicy IJA targets at Cox's Bazzar is sort of inviting .. I might even invite the IJA for tea before the 4E's come to pay a visit .. [;)]

Just my .02 ...

[Cribtop]

I don't disagree but CF has chosen, probably for historical reasons, to keep US air groups ( including all 4Es) in the Pacific.

Definitely plan on getting to the whole arc of bases Imphal to Ledo. Recon confirms they are mostly empty save for the at start Burma forces.

Still, risk abounds, no doubt. Part of the phased landing approach is to evaluate before we commit the big guns. If things go poorly from the start we just plop six divisions into Rangoon and defend the Ramree to Lashio line.

[adm]

[:-] It's been a week! [:-]

At least tell us if it worked, failed, or is in the balance with how many days they have been on the beach.

Pllllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaassssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Cribtop]

Sorry! Had a business trip but will update tomorrow.

Short answers. We are ashore in good order, opposition is slightly more than expected (one Indian Brigade), and it took longer than expected to unload the first wave. No attacks on our shipping.

Also, CF's CVs were spotted by a picket West of Exmouth! Lots going on.

[adm]

Thank you for the quick reply. [8D]

Banzai!

[Cribtop]

January 20, 1943

A poorly timed intervention by real life sent me on a business trip the day after I sent out the orders for the landing of the first wave at Cox's Bazaar. Time to catch up at last.

Subs

A brave SC crew escorting a resource convoy near Sendai uses its shiny new Mod-2 DC launchers to score two penetrating hits on Herring in deep water. Nice. No sinking sounds, but that sub is headed home the long way and may not make it.

5th Fleet

A sub spots a BB near Adak in the Aleutians. Later in the turn, search planes report 2 CA and 2 DD in the TF. Is this a bombardment run or an FT TF invasion? Probably the former as winter invasions up here are ugly.

SE Fleet

39 B-24s hit the unimproved port at Umboi Island and destroy the small mine tender present there.

Whirlwind

As if for dramatic effect, the rest of the war is very quiet today as the main event begins!

We launch night raids on the airfields at Chittagong and Akyab to try to disrupt enemy air ops.

The troops go ashore beginning in the unloading phase after the night move. Casualties are a little high in the first phase, which is to be expected given the lack of prep for the target. We chose not to prep at all as the odds 20-something prep would help had to be weighed against the likelihood of SigInt giving away surprise. The enemy has 46th Indian Brigade and a small base force present. Two small AA units are in the neighborhood, probably originally bound for Akyab and Cox's Bazaar (CB). There are no CD guns, but Bofors fired from shore damage one xAK. There is no other resistance to the landings from the ground other than an auto BA showing raw AS at 253:131 in our favor. Good news as only about 60% of the two first wave divisions are ashore.

The Royal Navy is nowhere to be seen. It appears surprise was achieved.

In the air, the invasion TFs are repeatedly spotted by enemy search planes, but no strikes are in the offing. Mr. Tojo sweeps CB and brushes aside a weak LRCAP of Hurricanes, followed by major IJAAF raids at CB and Akyab, the former a ground attack, the latter airfield suppression. KB and the second wave TF, lurking over the horizon, are not detected.

All in all, a good start.

[Cribtop]

January 21, 1943

Subs

Ha-31, moved into the Noumea hex, misses an APD and will RV with its mother ship.

5th Fleet

A TF led by BB Colorado and CA Quincy bombard Adak for damage in the low 30s. We don't care much as the only air groups permanently based here are seaplanes.

SE Fleet

Lae goes to forts 6.

Whirlwind

Unloading continues at CB with nominal casualties. The xAK hit by 40mm yesterday goes down. Japanese forces are on alert for mass air attacks on invasion shipping, but they are met with... Nothing! CF probably decided his Blenheims and B-25s were ill-suited to the task of naval attacks, but we are still surprised at the freebie.

Bassein goes to airfield 2, which is great as it will serve as a fighter base, taking pressure off the busy field at Rangoon.

Allied BA at CB shows revised AS up to 387 vs 128.

Other

Hordes of much needed base forces arrive at Tokyo.

[Cribtop]

January 22, 1943

Enemy carriers on the move!

Subs

ASW harasses Amberjack near Kagoshima. Thresher misses an xAK near Sendai, and once again Mod-2 DCs hit the enemy.

SE Fleet

The Liberators visit both Umboi and, for the first time, Meruake. Damage is minimal and we will send Nicks to Meruake.

Ndeni goes to airfield 6, Luganville to 8.

Southern Army

CF wisely chooses to exploit the known position of KB by moving his CVs forward. A picket spots SBDs and torpedo planes near Exmouth. Cribtop Intel believes the enemy is re-activating the invasion plans he scrubbed when KB fortuitously transited the Torres Strait to break up the party a few months ago. We estimate the target to be Port Hedland, Broome or Derby. However, there is weakness currently in the defenses of Java. If the enemy is uber-bold, he will be rewarded.

We pull all LBA reserves toward the region, activate the Timor Sea Squadron (4 CA and 4 DD), and sortie Yamato, Mushashi, several DDs and a CVE from Singers. These forces really can't stop enemy carriers, but will be lurking in case an opening occurs.

Assuming the target is NW Oz, Port Hedland is well defended, Broome and Derby are empty. Cribtop HQ would love to get CF into a CV battle before he gets Hellcats, and we judge that opportunity to be more important than holding onto NW Oz, which in 1943 is living on borrowed time anyway.

Great game though. Blow and counter-blow.

Katherine goes to forts 4.

Burma

Mandalay occupied at last. An Allied DA at Bhamo drops forts to 2, odds 2:1, casualties 305(5) vs 597(4). The RTA won't hold here long.

Whirlwind

Today we see the air action we expected yesterday as unloading continues over the now secure beachhead.

Tojos sweep CB and find 20 Hurricanes. It's not even close, and over the course of the day we run up a score of 24:3 in terms of fighters. Our Tojo groups are pushing average EXP levels of 80 now. Yikes.

The Oscar IIa debuts as an escort today as the IJAAF pounds enemy forces at CB. The RAF returns the favor, ignoring our ships to bomb our troops. An enemy raid of Blenheims and B-25s has its Hurricane escorts mauled by KB Zeros on LRCAP but gets through. Damage is material but not unbearable.

Allied BA at CB shows raw AS now at 499:125. DA tomorrow!

Analysis

So far, the big difference in this game has been the effective Japanese ISR work vs the lack of quality ISR from CF. Our pickets, subs and search planes have kept Tokyo in the loop on enemy moves, granting precious time to prepare defenses and counter-attack. In contrast, we have been able to sneak up on the enemy at critical moments undetected.

[Cribtop]

January 23, 1943

Subs

A new model midget fails to penetrate the harbor at Pago Pago. We prefer just parking them in the hex rather than attempting penetration, but in this case we were trying to get lucky for purposes of intel. We believe Pago Pago is a major hub for enemy convoys based on SigInt and are trying to confirm.

Trusty sinks a PB near Singers. Cribtop HQ commends the Captain for firing on the escort instead of the tankers it was guarding. Later in the turn, two ASW planes report hits on the sub.

Local ASW forces DC and damage a mini sub parked at Sydney. The mini will be forced to retire.

Southern Army

Another picket detects enemy CV aircraft near Exmouth. It appears the enemy will turn East on a course consistent with a target in Oz. Cribtop HQ breathes a small sigh of relief. We will have approx 100 crack Zeros and 100 elite Nells in position by the 24th or 25th. Our naval forces are sailing into position as well but won't intervene unless the enemy moves toward the DEI.

Burma

The short battle of Bhamo ends today with another Allied attack. 7:1 odds force the 2 RTA units to retreat, casualties 207(3) vs 1304(103). The only consolation is that the two Thai units retreat into the mountain hex just over the Chinese border, blocking the road there and perhaps forcing more delay on CF, who must either leave these troops in his rear or clean them up before going for Lashio.

Whirlwind

Another sweep of CB hammers enemy Hurricanes, the tally is only 5:1 because the enemy's numbers are falling off. The IJAAF then comes in to hit the 46th Brigade in support of our assault.

DA Cox's Bazaar drops forts to 2 and obtains 3:1 odds, casualties 117(1) vs 174(2). Banzai! With that result, it appears sure the base will fall within one or two more attacks.

The RAF fighter force in Assam is decimated. Recon before the invasion showed 60ish fighters at Chittagong and 80ish at Dacca. Recon now shows fighters at these bases in the high teens and low 20s, respectively. CF's decision not to use American 4Es and fighters here has thus ceded air superiority to Japan, and that superiority is threatening to become supremacy. Again, kudos to CF as I believe this to be a historical play on his part, but it does make Burma a bit tougher for him.

China

We shift bombing targets to Paoshan because the other two mountain airfields are wrecked. We continue to hammer Chungking and Kweiyang as well.

Cribtop HQ moves forces to the 23rd Army front in preparation for Operation Scalpel, a probe toward Tuyun and Kweiyang. We cannot afford to bring overwhelming force to bear here without stripping the defenses of the central front, but Cribtop Intel is betting the enemy's supply-deprived condition may be bad enough we could break through. If not, nothing is lost by the move.

[Cribtop]

January 24, 1943

Cox's Bazaar falls!

Subs

Trusty, apparently less damaged than our ASW pilots claimed, is chased off by escorts near Terempa.

Southern Army

The enemy TFs, now better identified by search planes as two CVTFs and one SCTF, are very slowly heading East near Exmouth. Possibly they established position to protect slower moving invasion TFs coming up behind? If they loiter too much longer, a horde of IJN subs formerly stationed around Perth will catch up.

Burma

Chiang Mai goes to airfield 4.

Whirlwind

Another sweep of CB results in a pleasant kill ratio of 7:0. We have a few new IJAAF aces after the last week. Then a well co-ordinated bombing raid pounds the enemy troops, followed by Allied bombers going after our forces. We had no LRCAP today as the invasion TF was almost empty and the KB's air groups needed rest, so we pulled back the ships.

DA Cox's Bazaar takes the base with 8:1 odds, casualties 635(169) vs 247(0). The three enemy ground units present fall back toward Akyab and thus are isolated from India. Banzai!

Decision Time

We have both a problem and an opportunity developing in Oz. Meanwhile, although a little delayed, Whirlwind is so far successful. I am inclined to use the IJAAF to cover Cox's Bazaar now to unload the second wave. Meanwhile, I'll move KB toward Oz via the Indian Ocean (ie around the "western" side of Sumatra), RVing with the Fleet Oilers along the way. We won't get to Oz in time to stop a landing, but if we can isolate and contain an invasion we may draw CF's carriers into a battle at a time and place of our choosing.

The other option is to hold off on the second wave until we can confirm the Allied invasion target. Then if it is something bad (Java or Timor), we can bring a hammer along with the IJN. I'm not inclined to go this way, but I'm curious what the readership thinks.