The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[princep01]

So, he does deep battle against New Zealand on the east and Perth on the west, isolates Oz, and then moves against Oz itself.  Maybe...that would seem to be his playing style.  All those subs parked off Kiwiland....is he doing the same over at Perth?
 
Nice shot by the S-boat.  That is one of the 4 older CAs and there is a chance it will not survive the trip to a safe harbor.  Hope it flounders.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: princep01

So, he does deep battle against New Zealand on the east and Perth on the west, isolates Oz, and then moves against Oz itself.  Maybe...that would seem to be his playing style.  All those subs parked off Kiwiland....is he doing the same over at Perth?

Style, smyle. [:)]

It's freakin' January 1942! So he "isolates" (huh? It's a darn big CONTINENT), Oz. So what? He has a myriad of undone tasks all over the map and the amphib bonus burning up daily. He's putting awnings on the windows while the foundation is leaking like a sieve. CR should ENCOURAGE such adventuring. Get out of his way, let him rampage 4000 miles from his logistics. Go nuts, Japan. Enjoy.

[paullus99]

John is probably trying to goad Canoe into some kind of early offensive operation, then he can bring down the hammer & attempt to crush the allied position - given his history / other games, he plays for the kill (letting the allies come to him & mount a massive counterattack).

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

John is probably trying to goad Canoe into some kind of early offensive operation, then he can bring down the hammer & attempt to crush the allied position - given his history / other games, he plays for the kill (letting the allies come to him & mount a massive counterattack).

Yeah, and I want a pony. [:)]

Ain't CR's first rodeo.

[paullus99]

I know - Canoe is too smart for that, of course, but it seems to be what John plays for - any situation where he can bring in lots of CVs, lots of air & lots of troops in one fell swoop.

[Canoerebel]

John has done a pretty good job of attending to the DEI, which is really Job One for Japan.  I give him exemplary marks for pushing so hard and fast that he just overwhelmed my efforts to attend to Cocos Island and Java with any semblance of a defense.  However, by moving so fast, he has some catching up to do - Singapore is going to take him some time and even Clark Field will require work.  Plus, he has to mop up places like Kendari and Makassar even while he is probably organizing his deep thrust.  This will probably target Oz, though India may be on the table.
 
I don't know yet whether John will seriously expend energy in SoPac (New Caledonia, Fiji, New Zealand, etc.) but I agree that that is just a huge waste of time and assets.  Every second the KB is tooling around between Noumea and Aukland is just a gift to me.
 
Meanwhile, all the subs that John had committed to West Coast early on have disappeared and he is not attendign to the Aleutians - no patrol planes and no serious carrier deterent.  So the Allies are almost certain to make a serious move in the Aluetians within six weeks.  That will hopefully be in time to then permit me to shift my carriers south to support Oz in the coming storm.

[GreyJoy]

Think it's really too early to say where John may be moving when phase I is over. As Dan said, he still has a lot of work to do in PI-DEI-SRA before he can move really forward

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: princep01

So, he does deep battle against New Zealand on the east and Perth on the west, isolates Oz, and then moves against Oz itself.  Maybe...that would seem to be his playing style.  All those subs parked off Kiwiland....is he doing the same over at Perth?

Style, smyle. [:)]

It's freakin' January 1942! So he "isolates" (huh? It's a darn big CONTINENT), Oz. So what? He has a myriad of undone tasks all over the map and the amphib bonus burning up daily. He's putting awnings on the windows while the foundation is leaking like a sieve. CR should ENCOURAGE such adventuring. Get out of his way, let him rampage 4000 miles from his logistics. Go nuts, Japan. Enjoy.

It's 'style, schmyle', moose. [:'(]

Ordinarily, I try not to agree with the moose on general principle, but he's got this one. Early uber-aggressive (take it for the sake of taking it with no heed to consolidation) Japanese players really are asking for their necks to be cut off at the base. John has done this before, to his detriment. He may say that he's not going to in the beginning-but a tiger can't change his stripes so easily.

Of course, this is in keeping with the spirit of the "Auto-vic or die trying" mentality. 99% of the time, they get the latter outcome.

CR's quote from once-upon-a-time about 'rocks rattling around in a can' (John's troops running around Central India on a pointless invasion late in the war) sums up this approach. John took great pride in putting a few divisions ashore and running around the Indian heartland. What did it accomplish? Nada. Zip-diddly. Bupkis. What it DID do is take several divisions of valuable LCUs that could be used in a defensive battle in Southeast Asia out of the picture.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Singapore is going to take him some time and even Clark Field will require work.  Plus, he has to mop up places like Kendari and Makassar even while he is probably organizing his deep thrust. 

Just Singapore and Clark Field remain to be neutralized? Those are "enemy numbers 1 and 2" in the JFB book. What about Java? Palembang? Balikpapan? If he's not attending to these in order of importance, then he's not taking care of business in the DEI.

Cocos island? Who cares?

[Canoerebel]

He's already taken Palembang and Balikpapan.  About all that remains is the eastern half of Java, Singapore, and Clark Field.

Cocos can be hugely important and can make sense from a Japanese standpoint.  If Japan springs forward to neutralize that potential thorn-in-the-side and then promptly and efficiently backfills by taking everything else, that's a good strategy.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
and then promptly and efficiently backfills by taking everything else

Remains to be seen if this is his tact here. I'd wager 'no', based upon his previous behavior.

As for the primacy of Cocos island. I submit that detailing its capture ranks very low on the Japanese player's lists of early 'must take' objectives. How is it any different than Midway in the Pacific?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's already taken Palembang and Balikpapan.  About all that remains is the eastern half of Java, Singapore, and Clark Field.

Cocos can be hugely important and can make sense from a Japanese standpoint.  If Japan springs forward to neutralize that potential thorn-in-the-side and then promptly and efficiently backfills by taking everything else, that's a good strategy.

I agree. I didn't take Cocos early on in my game against QBall and now, in early 1943, it's a torn in my side. 4Es from there can bomb Singapore, Palembang, Batavia, Sosarbaja etc and PBYs can sneak everywhere in DEI waters... he did the right thing imho! In my next game i'll do exactly the same!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
and then promptly and efficiently backfills by taking everything else

Remains to be seen if this is his tact here. I'd wager 'no', based upon his previous behavior.

As for the primacy of Cocos island. I submit that detailing its capture ranks very low on the Japanese player's lists of early 'must take' objectives. How is it any different than Midway in the Pacific?

With Cocos you controll the routes in I.O.
If it's in Japs' hands, it doesn't have a particular value. But in allied hands it can really become a nail in japanese left flank

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He's already taken Palembang and Balikpapan.  About all that remains is the eastern half of Java, Singapore, and Clark Field.

Cocos can be hugely important and can make sense from a Japanese standpoint.  If Japan springs forward to neutralize that potential thorn-in-the-side and then promptly and efficiently backfills by taking everything else, that's a good strategy.

I agree. I didn't take Cocos early on in my game against QBall and now, in early 1943, it's a torn in my side. 4Es from there can bomb Singapore, Palembang, Batavia, Sosarbaja etc and PBYs can sneak everywhere in DEI waters... he did the right thing imho! In my next game i'll do exactly the same!

Surely not at the expense of letting bastions like Singapore, Clark, etc. continue to exist? You can't focus your primary objective (by definition) on more than one ancillary / supplementary goal. So John took Cocos (wiping out that Brigade *was* sweet), but Singapore still stands? What if this is the status quo in March? April? May? Will this still be judged a success? I still argue no-first things first.

[Canoerebel]

I consider Midway pretty important compared to most players (judging by some back-and-forth in one of my AARs a few years ago), but Cocos is far more important.  Cocos is close to the Japanese heart.  Midway is close to nothing.  With Cocos in Allied hands it is possible to engage in lots of long range patrols and recon (which can be the real thing or a deception) plus it's much easier to unleash a big amphibious assault on the DEI.  With Cocos in Japanese hands, the threat to the DEI in 1943 is seriously reduced.

[Canoerebel]

1/24/42 and 1/25/42
 
NoPac:  The Allies are almost certain to engage in an early counteroffensive in the Aleutians.  Umnak and Adak, which are in enemy hands, are likely targets.  Under this scenario, the Allies would also strongly garrison Cold Bay.  Amphibious assaults would take place in early March.  Reinforcing Cold Bay, Dutch Harbor and Kodiak will take place immediately.
 
Political Points:  The Allies have 900 in the bank.  The highest priority is to release 27/B and 27/C Div. at Los Angeles for transport to Oz, though I have a good ten days before QE will make it back to LA from Melbourne.  The second highest priority is buying several RCT to be used in the Aleutians.
 
Pacific and Oz:  The KB is just of New Zealand's tip.  John may be imposing a blockade of sorts on Oz.
 
Singapore:  John did a very ill-conceived deliberate attack at Singapore, losing (as in "destroyed") 200 of his own squads.  Imperial Guards is trashed.  Two other divisions are very weak.  Singers still has 38k supply, so John is probably looking at four-week seige at a minimum.
 
India:  Most of an Aussie division just arrived at Aden and will report to Karachi, though I'm considering other uses ranging from Oz to garrisoning some islands south of India.
 
 
 
 
 

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Singapore:  John did a very ill-conceived deliberate attack at Singapore, losing (as in "destroyed") 200 of his own squads.  Imperial Guards is trashed.  Two other divisions are very weak.  Singers still has 38k supply, so John is probably looking at four-week seige at a minimum.

What's your supply and forts looking like here?

[Canoerebel]

Singapore has 38k supply, one fort (John's been bombing it every day since just after the war commenced) and about 800 AV (down from 1000 before the attacks commenced.  John has three divisions there.  Imperial Guards is trashed.  The other two have consistently shown about 300 to 350 AV since they crossed the causeway.  John's going to have to bring in reinforcement and increase the bombing raids if he wants to take this base in less than a month.
 
My biggest quandary there has been whether to spend the 150 PP to replace Percival.  I elected not to do so several weeks ago, but the recent failed IJA attacks might change the equation.  Doing so is worthwhile if it buys a few weeks.  There is a chance that is possible since I still have a decent level of supply.  John probably won't attack again for at least a week, so I have some time to think it through.

[Capt. Harlock]

John probably won't attack again for at least a week, so I have some time to think it through.

A thought -- if you have a little time, would it be worthwhile to quickly transfer in some fighters to interfere with his bombing raids?

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I consider Midway pretty important compared to most players (judging by some back-and-forth in one of my AARs a few years ago), but Cocos is far more important.  Cocos is close to the Japanese heart.  Midway is close to nothing.  With Cocos in Allied hands it is possible to engage in lots of long range patrols and recon (which can be the real thing or a deception) plus it's much easier to unleash a big amphibious assault on the DEI.  With Cocos in Japanese hands, the threat to the DEI in 1943 is seriously reduced.

IMVHO both fit a category of denying something from your enemy.

I dont think Midway gives much to the AFB, but the JFB can build it into an annoying air and sub base.

Cocos does nothing for the JFB, but is a good base from which the AFB can hit some important bases and force a garrison of an often lightly held area.

I dont think holding either is a war breaker.