The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

1/26/42 and 1/27/42
 
NoPac:  An RCT and a base force at Seattle are loading for Cold Bay.  It is early for the Allies to get ambitious in this region, but I know the Japanese carriers are far away.  The Allies have time to reinforce key areas in ways that will make rear areas more secure.  By the time John could shift focus to attend to NoPac, he'll have to assume that many of they key bases are strongly garrisoned.  Finally, John and I have a very "rich" history in NoPac, so pushing a few buttons here could pay big dividends.
 
Pacific:  The KB raided the harbor at Auckland, doing light damage to several transports.  This is an extravagant use of a strategic asset.  I can't envision any scenario where this would be worthwhile, and the only one that makes even minimal sense is if John intends to isolate and invade Oz.
 
DEI:  I consolidate units to create 11th Indian Division at Singapore and ended up with a commander with a rating of 20!  It cost 50 PP to replace him!  Ouch!  I switched replacements on for that unit and on Aussie unit, hoping to augment my force a bit.
 
India:  American units - especially aircraft - are beginning to arrive at Capetown.  The Allid position in India will be considerably stronger in about a month.

[Canoerebel]

1/28/42
 
NoPac:  The Cold Bay occupation troops departed Seattle last night.  The American carriers will follow tonight, providing close cover for the operation (though I'll do my best to keep them concealed).
 
Pacific:  The KB is SW of Auckland now - closer to Wellington.  Kates sortied and damaged an xAK and a coastal auxilliary ship.  Even if this use of the KB dovetails with a magnificent plan, the extravagance is breathtaking.
 
Magnicent Plan?:  This only makes sense if John is going all out for Oz.  This early in the game, Oz is of course vulnerable since I haven't had time to get reinforcements there.  So I'll sweat even as I attend to matters as best I can.
 
DEI:  Quiet at the moment.
 
India:  The Allies are busy attending in small but important ways to Socatra and the mod-map base to the west.  I have about 50 AV at Socatra and about 15 at the other base.  That's enough to get some fort building going and to reinforce efficiently in the unlikely event John moves on India in a big way.  Diego Garcia has 320 AV, which includes 18th UK Div., which is building steadily after the loss of two brigades (one at Cocos and the other aboard ship that was arriving at Cocos:  this all happened a few weeks ago).
 
China:  Two more unproductive Chinese shock attacks cost John some squads destroyed.  He's making a move on Chengte, but I think I have enough in place to block him.

[crsutton]

I sort of envy you CR. I have got over 1,000 turns done in what had been a great and exciting game. But for me there was no better time in the game for me than 3/42 through the end of the year. It is the time when the peril for the Allies was great and demanded my best play with full concentration. During this period, I went to bed every night thinking about every move I made and was going to make the next day. Now, I got more planes and ship than I know what to do with and although the game is still fun, it is not near as fun as those dark days of 42.

John is a good aggressive player. He will make you sweat it out.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/42
 
NoPac:  The American carriers put to sea to cover the Cold Bay reinforcement mission.  Another infantry unit will likely be brought forward to occupy a more forward island (one currently not occupied).  Since the bulk of the enemy carriers are known to be far away, this should be a low risk operation.

Pacific:  The KB is off New Zealand's north cape and has hit Auckland three days running.  QE will pass NZ's south cape tomorrow, so I have to take stock of the situation over the next three days until she is well past the danger zone.

SEAC:  Rangoon falls to a small IJA force (John crowed over this a bit in an email message; I did not succumb to the temptation to reply:  "Hey, Rangoon's been held by a tiny militia force into late January!"

China:  A rare quiet day as John doesn't test the MLR.  But new tests will come soon.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in NoPac and the operational plan.

[Canoerebel]

The KB's current position new New Zealand. Is this part of a masterful plan or is it an extravagant use of a strategic asset? Time will tell.

[obvert]

The KB's current position new New Zealand. Is this part of a masterful plan or is it an extravagant use of a strategic asset? Time will tell.

If he knew you had assets there that were valuable enough to justify it, fine. But a few transports is certainly not worth it.

[paullus99]

He's being very obvious about his intentions by committing the KB in an area that he knows will draw your attention (or at least do some damage if you had significant assets in the region).

That alone makes it suspect.

[Cribtop]

Either a misallocation of resources in the form of an overkill feint or the opening salvo of a move to isolate Oz, perhaps via the rather odd vehicle of an invasion of New Zealand itself.

[Canoerebel]

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.
 
I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

[AcePylut]

Here's a thought... supposed the Japs take New Zealand (incl Noumea) and the west coast of Oz....

That would effectively prevent Oz from being used as a staging point for a thrust to the DEI, New Guinea, etc.

It would force you, as the allies, to fight the battle the Japs want - a naval/air battle outside of Allied LBA.

Look around the map and you'll see that by taking some other strategic islands, he can force the allies to mount their initial strategic counterattack outside of the range of pretty much anything but the 4E's. If he chooses right at that time, and has his assets positioned properly, he can crush your fleet.. or delay your counterattack until it's too late to 'win' the VP war. Factor in the troop stacking limits - and it could be a war winner. Maybe his plan is to just starve oz.

Could work, might not, don't know - haven't seen it done yet.

[Bullwinkle58]

In that case there's always mid-Pac.

IMO there is not combo of moves Japan has the assets to make where the Allies don't have a move where Japan is thin. And taking western Oz AND NZ gives CR a whole pantload of free reenforcements right here in 1942 when he's thin on LCUs.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

Back when he reconned Newcastle, it struck me that this fits with recent discussion in other AARs that one should take Australia by an early invasion of the southeast. Before the reinforcements so triggered can be brought in, KB can be in the Indian Ocean hunting troop convoys. Oz has no aircarft to speak of and the militia units are neither well-trained nor well equipped. A well supplied IJA landing could roll up the country in short order. Singapore and the Philippines would go on the back burner, as would the Solomons and New Guinea, to provide the troops and ships needed.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

Don't NZ's emergency militias get released to Aden? That wouldn't do the Allies any good until they were able to be successfully translocated into theatre.

[BBfanboy]

Yes, most of the land and air units that come in as emergency reinforcements come in at Aden and a few at Cape Town. I think CR indicated he would want to use them in India/Ceylon anyway, so he doesn't have to haul them far.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Yes, most of the land and air units that come in as emergency reinforcements come in at Aden and a few at Cape Town. I think CR indicated he would want to use them in India/Ceylon anyway, so he doesn't have to haul them far.

And right down to Burma.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

Back when he reconned Newcastle, it struck me that this fits with recent discussion in other AARs that one should take Australia by an early invasion of the southeast. Before the reinforcements so triggered can be brought in, KB can be in the Indian Ocean hunting troop convoys. Oz has no aircarft to speak of and the militia units are neither well-trained nor well equipped. A well supplied IJA landing could roll up the country in short order. Singapore and the Philippines would go on the back burner, as would the Solomons and New Guinea, to provide the troops and ships needed.

Has anybody looked at the garrison reqs of Oz? Wow.

This would be a really dumb plan. Give Singers six extra months to dig and supply?

[Canoerebel]

Very early in the game the Allies are certainly vulnerable in Oz and India (or any other single point or handful of points on the map).  The Allies can try to contest moves against those points, though at the risk of getting overwhelmed and losing the battle.  The other strategy would be to put pressure on Japan elsewhere.  I think I would do a little of both.  The first part of my plan would be to make noise in NoPac, which should put pressure on any Japanese player, but even moreso John given our history there.  This part of my plan is already underway.  As soon as that region is addressed, I would shift my carriers south to either help work reinforcements into Oz or, if John imposed a tight blockade using the full KB, which I think would be likely, I might try something in Sumatra or Burma using the triggered reinforcements.  (An alternate plan that I would look at carefully would be to tranship the extra troops arriving at Aden and Capetown to Balboa and then invade the Kuriles and vicinity in a major way - not sure this is feasible, but I would look at it very hard).

[Canoerebel]

Here's another thing I'm surmising.  Based upon the eb and flow of the game pace (John has really slowed down of late), plus the events on the map, plus his latest post title ("Ponderings"), I don't think John had a well-thought-out strategy for where he was going after his early moves.  He's in position and has the assets to make plenty of trouble for me in the coming months, but if that hunch is on target, he's wasted about a month of time - IE, the first month of what could have been a grand plan has been lost as he's frittered around unsure what he wanted to do next.  The KB in New Zealand would be Exhibit A in my case.
 
Or, am I just flat wrong?  Am I about to feel the sting of an incredibly bold and well-thought-out plan?

[princep01]

Or, am I just flat wrong?  Am I about to feel the sting of an incredibly bold and well-thought-out plan?
 
My guess is no, you shall not feel that sting.
 
However, as I said a couple of pages back when the New Zealand thing begin to emerge, I do believe John is seriously comtemplating an attack on Noumea/New Zealand with the goal of isolating Oz and then attacking it directly.  The Moose immediately ridiculed my comment (for things I did not say, as I made no comment on the vitality of such a move), but I have read comments elsewhere by John indicating that he is enamoured with the deep battle concept that Nemo (may his tribe prosper) used to discuss in these forums.
 
The move could just be a raid to "do something" with KB while he decides where he is going in Phase 2, or it could be the precursor to a move on the New Caledonia/New Zealand axis.  However, there has been no indication to date of an invasion fleet moving southeastward.  At this point there are no concrete exhibits, but only circumstantial evidence, to bring to the court's attention.  But, you know John's style of play better than most, so, I ask....would a deep battle invasion of New Caledonia/NZ not be a characteristic of his style of play?
 
Again (Moose), I make no comment on the advisability of the invasion or an attempt to isolate Oz, rather than just invade it if that is one's goal, but I sure would not write off the distinct possibilty that is what John is up to.