Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I have six vehicle factories providing 240 points per day. By April I've reached a pool of 10k so should be in good shape for the remainder of 42 at the current pace of operations. Armament production is perhaps a little on the low side at 340 points per day and a pool of less than 30k so I may have to increase this number.

I'm pushing hard in China right now and need replacements / upgrades for my LCUs there to cover losses, yet maintain a schwerpunkt. I'm also cognizant of Obvert's observations on the matter of 'burning through' existing ARM and VEH pools rapidly when large clusters of LCUs (undermanned / under TOE, of course [8|]) come into play.

Thus, I'm still gunning for a 120-125K pool for ARM, 25-30K pool for VEH before I start turning things off.

Sorry, I should clarify. I'm not turning off any vehicle production at this stage. I meant my pool was growing and that I could sustain this level of production for the remainder of the year without further expansion while maintaining the current pace of operations. I'm hoping to have at least 20k in vehicle points and 100k armaments by the end of 42.

[Chickenboy]

Roger that, Lemon-san. [&o]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Speaking of economics, with the start of the new month, my stats are looking pretty good. Note that none of this includes stuff currently loaded in convoys.

Supply: +143k from last month.
Fuel: -53k - I know there is >100k fuel in convoys right now.
Oil: -120k - Lots of oil in convoys too.
HI: +87k - Currently at 232k. I'm confident I'll exceed my goal of 700k by the end of the year. I'm getting 4000 to 4500 HI a day.
Armament: +3k - 100,539 in the pool right now. The tank division elements are pretty much eating up the 120 factory production I currently have on. I may turn on ~50 of the 500 that are off for a bit until the elements are fully repaired.
Vehicle - -6.8k - discussed above.

Japanese Score: 20,827 (+883)
Allied Score: 10,088 (+373)
Japanese Ships lost: 118 (1141 pts)
Allied Ships lost: 222 (1593 pts)
Japanese ships lost this month: 5 (13 pts)
Allied ships lost this month: 23 (135 pts)

Japanese ships lost:
3 - xAKL
2 - SSX

Allied ships lost:
1 - CVL - Hermes - not sure she sank.
1 - SS
1 - DMS
2 - AM
2 - TK
1 - AP
4 - xAK
4 - xAKL

Other Stuff:

The Akagi, Kaga and 6x Shiratsuyus are at Kobe and will enter refit in July. The Shokaku and Zuikaku have completed refit and will arrive at Davao to fill out KB (Soryu). Ryujo is currently attached to MKB at Singapore. She'll move back to Davao shortly.

July brings the ability to change the size of many carrier daitai. Here's the new makeup of KB and MKB:

Ship-Zeros-Vals-Kates

KB:
Akagi-27-27-27
Kaga-27-27-18
Soryu-27-18-18
Ryujo-30-0-18
Shokaku-27-27-18
Zuikaku-27-27-18

Total-165-126-117

MKB:
Junyo-27-18-9
Shoho-21-0-9
Zuiho-21-0-9
Hosho-14-0-6
Taiyo-9-18-0
Unyo-0-0-27

Total-92-36-60

Hiryu in KB vs. Ryujo? Did you lose her?

Yeah, I lost Hiryu. I pushed KB south of Rabaul to support an invasion of Pt. Moresby in Jan 42 and Ted had put just about every Dutch and S class sub there. Hiryu and Soryu both took multiple torpedoes. Soryu survived but Hiryu succumbed 2 hexes south of Rabaul. I did save the pilots fortunately.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Mike, i know you're the guru of Japanese economy so i beg you some insight...

How much oil tons do you produce daily? How much is needed by your refineries? It seems to me that, no matter what you do, if you conquer the historical perimeter you will surely run out of oil in 1944 at best (just oil, not fuel). Am i missing something?

Running out of oil is inevitable. Here are the numbers:

Japan has 895 refineries and produces 126 oil. That leaves 895-126=769 extra refinery capacity for SRA oil.

China/Manchuoko/Korea (C/M/K) has 120 refineries and produces 60 oil for an excess of 60 refinery capacity.

SRA has a total of 1960 refineries. I don't count the 300 in Burma (I don't use them as discussed below) or the damaged 150 in Miri (I don't waste supply repairing them). There is 2780 oil to be captured in the SRA. 2780 oil - 1960 refineries = 820 excess oil to be shipped to C/M/K & Japan.

Unless your Allied opponent is stupid, he'll bomb the Magwe (Burma) oil as soon as possible so don't count on that for too long. (Mine is at 133, so I'm counting myself lucky that my opponent has most likely determined that it's destroyed.)

I don't use the Burma refineries because then all of that fuel has to be shipped out through Rangoon (a dicey proposition potentially) or overland. If it goes overland, you lose some to spoilage. I let the oil migrate overland because there is no spoilage of oil. With the excess refinery capability in the Home Islands, you can afford to do this.

Anyway, the 820 to 520 (Burma oil totally damaged) oil gets shipped to China or Japan. Their total excess is 60+769=829. Eventually, you are going to run out of surplus oil in Japan.

I firmly believe that you need to ship all the oil and fuel you can get to Japan. When the oil runs out, you lose 769 supply a day in Japan. That doesn't sound like much, but it is. That's 23,070 supply a month or 276,840 supply a year. It is significant.

You get quite a bit of excess fuel and oil when you capture the SRA. Get it home as soon as you can, because you'll lose some when the US subs become competent (well, at least their torpedoes).

I ship all the oil and fuel from Burma and Sumatra as well as Miri, Brunei, Babo and Boela to Japan. Balikpapan's fuel goes to Truk and Tarakan's fuel goes to Davao (Combined Fleet anchorage). Java's HI is being built up to use the resources produced on that island as well as all the little bases around Java. There will end up being 35-40k excess fuel there a month. I'll ship that where needed. If no one needs it, it'll go to Singapore and to Japan.

There's more oil to be had in China. Sian (20) and Loyang (50) for starters. I've captured both. Loyang was captured intact. I shut off the refinery and let the oil migrate to Pt. Arthur and Sian was totally destroyed. I'm rebuilding the oil but not the refinery. I'll ship the excess oil to Japan.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Mike, i know you're the guru of Japanese economy so i beg you some insight...

How much oil tons do you produce daily? How much is needed by your refineries? It seems to me that, no matter what you do, if you conquer the historical perimeter you will surely run out of oil in 1944 at best (just oil, not fuel). Am i missing something?

Running out of oil is inevitable. Here are the numbers:

Japan has 895 refineries and produces 126 oil. That leaves 895-126=769 extra refinery capacity for SRA oil.

China/Manchuoko/Korea (C/M/K) has 120 refineries and produces 60 oil for an excess of 60 refinery capacity.

SRA has a total of 1960 refineries. I don't count the 300 in Burma (I don't use them as discussed below) or the damaged 150 in Miri (I don't waste supply repairing them). There is 2780 oil to be captured in the SRA. 2780 oil - 1960 refineries = 820 excess oil to be shipped to C/M/K & Japan.

Unless your Allied opponent is stupid, he'll bomb the Magwe (Burma) oil as soon as possible so don't count on that for too long. (Mine is at 133, so I'm counting myself lucky that my opponent has most likely determined that it's destroyed.)

I don't use the Burma refineries because then all of that fuel has to be shipped out through Rangoon (a dicey proposition potentially) or overland. If it goes overland, you lose some to spoilage. I let the oil migrate overland because there is no spoilage of oil. With the excess refinery capability in the Home Islands, you can afford to do this.

Anyway, the 820 to 520 (Burma oil totally damaged) oil gets shipped to China or Japan. Their total excess is 60+769=829. Eventually, you are going to run out of surplus oil in Japan.

I firmly believe that you need to ship all the oil and fuel you can get to Japan. When the oil runs out, you lose 769 supply a day in Japan. That doesn't sound like much, but it is. That's 23,070 supply a month or 276,840 supply a year. It is significant.

You get quite a bit of excess fuel and oil when you capture the SRA. Get it home as soon as you can, because you'll lose some when the US subs become competent (well, at least their torpedoes).

I ship all the oil and fuel from Burma and Sumatra as well as Miri, Brunei, Babo and Boela to Japan. Balikpapan's fuel goes to Truk and Tarakan's fuel goes to Davao (Combined Fleet anchorage). Java's HI is being built up to use the resources produced on that island as well as all the little bases around Java. There will end up being 35-40k excess fuel there a month. I'll ship that where needed. If no one needs it, it'll go to Singapore and to Japan.

There's more oil to be had in China. Sian (20) and Loyang (50) for starters. I've captured both. Loyang was captured intact. I shut off the refinery and let the oil migrate to Pt. Arthur and Sian was totally destroyed. I'm rebuilding the oil but not the refinery. I'll ship the excess oil to Japan.

Thanks Mike! Very informative and excellent post!
It sounds like my calculations were correct. The only difference is that in DBB mod refineries don't produce supplies, so my priority for oil instead of fuel is downgraded. I don't find Babo and Boela oil to be really needed....or better said: the efforts and risks to run convoys with TKs in waters so close to the front and the need to expand the ports there and to place some naval support ( or naval engineers in DBB) are not efficient in my general picture. In april 1943, however, the reserves of oil in Japan have already reached the risky level of 250k....and it seems to me that the efforts related to move oil ( which requires more than double the time needed to load/unload fuel) back to Japan aren't that well put if compared to the fuel i could have moved back using the same assets/time.
I'll try to bring it home, obviously, but my priority goes to fuel which is much more efficient imho, and can also be hauled by xAKs if needed.

Wn't hyjack anymore your wonderfull AAR....thanks again! Now back to thewar

[Mike Solli]

No hijack, Greyjoy. I love to talk about this stuff. [:D]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Mike, i know you're the guru of Japanese economy so i beg you some insight...

How much oil tons do you produce daily? How much is needed by your refineries? It seems to me that, no matter what you do, if you conquer the historical perimeter you will surely run out of oil in 1944 at best (just oil, not fuel). Am i missing something?

Running out of oil is inevitable. Here are the numbers:

Japan has 895 refineries and produces 126 oil. That leaves 895-126=769 extra refinery capacity for SRA oil.

China/Manchuoko/Korea (C/M/K) has 120 refineries and produces 60 oil for an excess of 60 refinery capacity.

SRA has a total of 1960 refineries. I don't count the 300 in Burma (I don't use them as discussed below) or the damaged 150 in Miri (I don't waste supply repairing them). There is 2780 oil to be captured in the SRA. 2780 oil - 1960 refineries = 820 excess oil to be shipped to C/M/K & Japan.

Unless your Allied opponent is stupid, he'll bomb the Magwe (Burma) oil as soon as possible so don't count on that for too long. (Mine is at 133, so I'm counting myself lucky that my opponent has most likely determined that it's destroyed.)

I don't use the Burma refineries because then all of that fuel has to be shipped out through Rangoon (a dicey proposition potentially) or overland. If it goes overland, you lose some to spoilage. I let the oil migrate overland because there is no spoilage of oil. With the excess refinery capability in the Home Islands, you can afford to do this.

Anyway, the 820 to 520 (Burma oil totally damaged) oil gets shipped to China or Japan. Their total excess is 60+769=829. Eventually, you are going to run out of surplus oil in Japan.

I firmly believe that you need to ship all the oil and fuel you can get to Japan. When the oil runs out, you lose 769 supply a day in Japan. That doesn't sound like much, but it is. That's 23,070 supply a month or 276,840 supply a year. It is significant.

You get quite a bit of excess fuel and oil when you capture the SRA. Get it home as soon as you can, because you'll lose some when the US subs become competent (well, at least their torpedoes).

I ship all the oil and fuel from Burma and Sumatra as well as Miri, Brunei, Babo and Boela to Japan. Balikpapan's fuel goes to Truk and Tarakan's fuel goes to Davao (Combined Fleet anchorage). Java's HI is being built up to use the resources produced on that island as well as all the little bases around Java. There will end up being 35-40k excess fuel there a month. I'll ship that where needed. If no one needs it, it'll go to Singapore and to Japan.

There's more oil to be had in China. Sian (20) and Loyang (50) for starters. I've captured both. Loyang was captured intact. I shut off the refinery and let the oil migrate to Pt. Arthur and Sian was totally destroyed. I'm rebuilding the oil but not the refinery. I'll ship the excess oil to Japan.

Thanks Mike. This clarifies a lot that I was too lazy or inept to calculate. My use of oil in the HI is sporadic now and I've already seen a difference in the supply production that I don't like much. I have more mostly from smaller bases that is building up in some hubs and now that I have a plethora of medium sized converted TKs I'll begin the passage back of some of this oil as well.

I wonder though how much fuel it takes to ship oil from a lot of the small ports and bases that produce it, like Boela. I can't ship it to Babeldaob anymore from here as US subs are posted all around there and eat up the smaller slower tankers. Manila is also a difficult passage, so I'm considering alternatives. If I ship it around the shallows through Soerabaja>Singapore and then up, it would be potentially safer, but not so efficient. Is it still worth it? That is the question.

I might do some calculations later today and figure out what to do with this based on one size of tanker and its efficiency. If you have any thoughts I'd welcome them about the use of small to medium tankers and their efficiency over time regarding fuel use vs fuel/oil hauling.

[PaxMondo]

Mike, I'm going to take exception to your numbers.  Or maybe better to say, I feel the need to clarify them.

First, refining capacity doesn't matter in your first order analysis, only oil production as we will assume that you have ample refining capacity.  So let's just start there.

Japan starts with 126 oil centers in Japan, but actually starts with 224 oil centers under its control (Scen 1).  To this, in China and DEI (not including Burma for all the reasons mentioned) you can obtain another 2605 oil centers for a total of 2829 oil centers.  This will refine to 25461 fuel/day (assuming enough refining capacity which is rarely a limitation).

Now let's look at HI, your industrial fuel consumer.  You start with 6950 HI in your control as Japan.  To that you have, within the same area as above, the opportunity to capture 1020 more.  Let's assume though that this is captured at 50% damaged, thus 610 more before any repairs.  Thus in total you have 7560 HI factories requiring 15120 fuel each day.

Your surplus steady state fuel for your empire is then 10341/day at your empires historical peak.  Or if you want to back that to oil centers, 1149 excess oil centers over what you need for your industry.

Now, your major fuel consumer is your fleet.  If you build your entire fleet, and have them at CRUISE speed, they potentially can use 83,970 fuel/day, at mission speed that is 251,908 fuel/day.  Not suggesting that you will use this much, but as a player you have to understand that the IJN can and does use an incredible amount of fuel.  This daily usage is entirely under player control.  Disbanded in port, a ship uses zero fuel.

What do all these numbers mean?

Simple, taking the DEI gives you plenty of oil/fuel for you economy with NO expansion of HI.  Your fleet, and it movements though, are what require the most careful consideration.  When you read Mike's AAR's, note how carefully he plans all of his resource shipments.  Why?  To minimize fuel expenditure.  Note how carefully he plans his expansions.  Why?  To minimize fuel expenditure.  One of the best, and most simple tactics, that the allies can do is to simply force the KB to respond continually across its empire to threats.  That response alone will eventually crash the empire economy for most players.  You do not have the fuel to support it.  The IJ fleet needs to be disbanded in port as close to 95% of the time as you can possibly do so to conserve fuel.

So, when looking at your oil/fuel numbers in your game if you are running short of fuel it means quite simply that you are moving more ships than your economy can support.  The more HI expansion and repair that you do, the fewer ships you can move because the amount of oil/fuel you can get is essentially a fixed number.

All of the above is only a first order analysis.  You can easily take this quite deeper.

PS: I did these calcs several years ago, but I'm not aware anything in the economy has changed in Scen 1 so these should be the same.

[Mike Solli]

Pax, amazing stuff! Just copied it so I can really read it at lunch. Thanks!

[GreyJoy]

Pax, thanks a lot!



My tracker, however, says that in Japan i have 6070 HI industries, plus 90 in Hokkaido... this is a DBB scenario 30 (kind of scenario 2 stock) but afaik they didn't change the industrial output in DBB so it should be the same as stock.



Your considerations about fuel usage of the fleet are scaring the hell out of me!...should i believe what tracker says about daily fuel usage?

Also, after having checked, it seems to me that ships not disbanded in port, but simply sitting there, don't consume fuel...am i wrong?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

If you build your entire fleet, and have them at CRUISE speed, they potentially can use 83,970 fuel/day, at mission speed that is 251,908 fuel/day.

What do all these numbers mean?

The IJ fleet needs to be disbanded in port as close to 95% of the time as you can possibly do so to conserve fuel.

Oh, dear. There are certainly some things here that new players on the Japanese side should learn RIGHT AWAY. They should be put in bold along any document talking about the economy.

1. I have always known that more fuel was consumed by mission speed as opposed to cruise speed. I didn't know it was 3x as much!! That is crucial. I've often used mission for important CS fuel convoys traveling great distances because I thought the extra fuel spent would be more efficient than getting the ships spotted and sunk tooling along at cruise speed. I have some work to do. Luckily I've already decided to severely limit the number of ships built, and I'm just now about to turn off a lot of merchant production.

2. Something is always happening with the fleet. In the beginning this was extreme, and because of some early successes I was eager to try to push farther. Looking back at my inexperience I realize now that this is BAD for the Empire if you plan to keep it going into 45, which I still hope to do.

3. The shortest route should always be taken. I spent a lot of time and fuel bringing resources from places like Nauru, simply because it was there and as a new player I though Japan should always maximize it's use of resources/fuel/oil/HI. Now that's not looking so good. There is just enough in China/Manchuria/Hokkaido to keep things going with the occasional convoy returning from the DEI hauling stuff back to maximize it's use. This was one of the justifications for the Nauru convoys a well, that from Truk other returning convoys could haul resources, but collectively it still adds a lot to fuel use over a year or more.

4. The expansion of HI should be carefully considered. Also, maybe for the late game in Japan A LOT of LI should be expanded before mid-42, so that HI and refineries will be supplemented by the time they start to be targeted and/or get low on fuel. I mostly expanded HI in the DEI, but did a bit in China as well. This is holding on for now with enough fuel fro local sources, but just barely. Some of this seems to move to Manchuria as well, because the refineries there are only sporadically working, but the HI is churning along. I just checked and I have 7711 in global HI production factories now. So I assume that's a lot for scenario 1 in terms of fuel use.

[SqzMyLemon]

This is starting to become depressing.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Is it always 3X ? or just when they change speed because of a threat

I was under the impression that "mission speed" = "cruise" unless need for full speed due to tactical reasons

EDIT: Nauru is an interesting problem, in game terms, it is just useless "far away resources". In real life, these were valuable "phosphate minerals" that were useful for Japan's war effort. I think I will keep the convoy running, but I am playing against a less demanding AI opponent

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Is it always 3X ? or just when they change speed because of a threat

I was under the impression that "mission speed" = "cruise" unless need for full speed due to tactical reasons

EDIT: Nauru is an interesting problem, in game terms, it is just useless "far away resources". In real life, these were valuable "phosphate minerals" that were useful for Japan's war effort. I think I will keep the convoy running, but I am playing against a less demanding AI opponent

I think Jorge is correct. Settings of "Mission speed" will, in reality be under cruise speed in reality most of the time, except where tactical reasons merit a change. This is different than 'full speed' settings that are on full speed for all phased movements.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Is it always 3X ? or just when they change speed because of a threat

I was under the impression that "mission speed" = "cruise" unless need for full speed due to tactical reasons

EDIT: Nauru is an interesting problem, in game terms, it is just useless "far away resources". In real life, these were valuable "phosphate minerals" that were useful for Japan's war effort. I think I will keep the convoy running, but I am playing against a less demanding AI opponent

I think Jorge is correct. Settings of "Mission speed" will, in reality be under cruise speed in reality most of the time, except where tactical reasons merit a change. This is different than 'full speed' settings that are on full speed for all phased movements.

And my comment was for "convoy" TFs: transport, cargo tanker, etc,
not for TF with specific rules like fast transport/ surface combar, minelayers

[obvert]

Okay, good. That was closer to my understanding of it as well. I nearly had a panic attack! So is it or is it not a good idea in terms of efficiency, when taking account of sub activity, to use mission speed for valuable fuel convoys?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Okay, good. That was closer to my understanding of it as well. I nearly had a panic attack! So is it or is it not a good idea in terms of efficiency, when taking account of sub activity, to use mission speed for valuable fuel convoys?

I do. Whether that's the most efficient, I'd doubt. Still there's something to be said for peace of mind on the matter.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Okay, good. That was closer to my understanding of it as well. I nearly had a panic attack! So is it or is it not a good idea in terms of efficiency, when taking account of sub activity, to use mission speed for valuable fuel convoys?

Thinking about it... would it make too much a difference for cargo ships?

let me explain: a CV will go from 15KTS in cruise to 30KTS full speed and that should have a huge impact;
but a cargo ship will go from 12KTS to 14KTS or from 15K to 18K... would that be enough to get out of trouble? it probably have some impact, but to what extent I am not sure

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: obvert

4. The expansion of HI should be carefully considered. Also, maybe for the late game in Japan A LOT of LI should be expanded before mid-42, so that HI and refineries will be supplemented by the time they start to be targeted and/or get low on fuel. I mostly expanded HI in the DEI, but did a bit in China as well. This is holding on for now with enough fuel fro local sources, but just barely. Some of this seems to move to Manchuria as well, because the refineries there are only sporadically working, but the HI is churning along. I just checked and I have 7711 in global HI production factories now. So I assume that's a lot for scenario 1 in terms of fuel use.

I don't recommend expanding LI at all. It costs 1000 supply per point of LI expanded. It'll take 1000 days just to break even!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: obvert

4. The expansion of HI should be carefully considered. Also, maybe for the late game in Japan A LOT of LI should be expanded before mid-42, so that HI and refineries will be supplemented by the time they start to be targeted and/or get low on fuel. I mostly expanded HI in the DEI, but did a bit in China as well. This is holding on for now with enough fuel fro local sources, but just barely. Some of this seems to move to Manchuria as well, because the refineries there are only sporadically working, but the HI is churning along. I just checked and I have 7711 in global HI production factories now. So I assume that's a lot for scenario 1 in terms of fuel use.

I don't recommend expanding LI at all. It costs 1000 supply per point of LI expanded. It'll take 1000 days just to break even!

I'm simply thinking this could be a good idea for the very late game. You may take a risk in the meantime, using that supply and perhaps not getting that far, but if you do invest early and get past about march 45, then you start getting the benefit. At a time when your other supply sources are being less productive you will still have plenty of resources to feed the LI.