Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Lots of very interesting discussion! With the scary stats Pax has given on fuel availability for the fleet, I think I'm going to try something new. I'm going to move fuel, oil and resources to Singapore and try to get it to migrate to Fusan where I can do the hop to Japan. I'm nervous about trying that because it may not move very well. Gotta think about it at work today....

Mike,

Starting this late to try and pull to Fusan will be a very low probability outcome. The way the resource flow model works ... well it has a lot of residence built into it. Meaning, once it is going one way, it doesn't like to change. My suggestion: Look at Port Arthur and Shanghai. See where your resources (oil, fuel, resources) are now pooling. It should be pretty clear where the excess is going: one or the other. That's the one you will want to choose to pull to. As short as Fusan? No, but still a lot shorter than coming from Shanghai.

To pull from Fusan, you have to start on Dec 7. Really. Since Fusan can only get to lvl 8 port and doesn't have the factories (resource etc) that the other ports do, it is an uphill battle against the model. But, it can be done.

Pax, I've been thinking about it all day and recalled other discussions about this. My fear is exactly what you describe. Right now I'm pulling resources from Shanghai and Fusan. The oil congregates at Pt. Arthur. I just allocated 2x Std-C TKs to pull oil from there since I now have a surplus with the liberation of Loyang and Sian. I think I'll leave it at that. I may test with some oil & resources to Hong Kong to see if it moves.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: jrcar

Mike we managed to do this however it was quite inefficient. Generally Fuel went OK, oil was a little more problematic going Bankkok to Saigon. In the end convoys from Palembang dropped off in Vietnam, a relatively direct route that then meant it flowed through China much better, although still not great. Part of this was we had plenty of tankers, plenty of fuel at Palembang, but the friction of loading was the choke point. So having the ships at sea longer actually eased the choke point.

In the end used smaller tankers (2850, 7950) to take to Singapore, Vietnam, Manila and Davao then used a larger TF to move it from there.

In hindsight we used more fuel than we should have in some of our raids, and should have repaired the oil centres at Miri.

I'm a bit caught on the whole LI thing... at our stage we have huge numbers of resources, especially in China, however we have done pretty good there. Repairing the LI (we did the HI) when we captured it would be starting to pay off now, the extra supply would be nice...

No sense in making more LI in Japan though. Ten you have to ship the resources there.

We did make more HI in Singapore and Sorebaya which has paid off well.

I built Hong Kong and Singapore to 100 HI and am building Soerabaja and Batavia up. I think that's the place to do it so you don't have to move as much stuff.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: jrcar

We started a bit late on Fusan, but resources have been no problem. Even oil and fuel is ok, just a bit random and uncontrolled (which then can ruin the plan and lead to shortages just when you don't want them!). Having a lot of convoys set to Fusan probably helps (we have 6-8).

We have also used the resource convoys to back load supply from Japan to Fusan, that has flowed through China, Vietnam and to Thailand well.

Chees
Rob

I'm moving supply back, but through Shanghai. That's working well. My supply situation is pretty good, so I'll continue to push supply from Japan back to China for a few more laps to get the supply levels up some more in China.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I don't think these break even figures are correct.

The LI factories will begin to produce some LI after 1 factory has been repaired, no? Sure, at 1(99), it's only producing one / month, but it's not nothing. Then at 30(70), it's producing 1/day throughout the balance of repair. So it won't take 1000 days, but something less than that. My factorial / cumulative production math is failing me now (too lazy to make the requisite calculations), but I believe this number to be lower than 1000 days when this production is taken into account.

Wait, CB that's assuming you are expanding the LI factory more than just once. In your example, you'd actually be spending 100 x 1100 supply for a total of 110,000 supply. [X(] Then I think cumulative production would factor in as you suggest. In any other case, if you expanded a factory by a single point expending 1100 supply, I think it still means one point recovered per day for 3.01 years. Ugh.

Sorry, I had a brain fart in my previous post that jrcar has convienently pointed out. [:-] [:D]

Well, it all depends on the scenario multipliers, how much you expand and the cost of expanding your LI plant(this can be modified).

I'll use Scenario 1, SqzMyLemon is pretty much correct in the numbers, as well as Chickenboy.

Take a 0(0) LI plant at Dec 7, 1941 expand it to 0(30). This will cost per 1 point LI repair = 1100 (1000 per repair + 100 per initial expansion). So, 33,000 supplies.
It will take 30 days to repair, so for the first 30 days maths factoring is used (day1 = 1 supply created; 32999 owe || day2 = 2 supply; 32997 || day3 = 3 supply; 32994 etc) until day 30 and then 30 supply / day till in the black.

So, it will take 1115 days to pay back the supply.
So 26 Dec, 1944 until repaid

With the 0(100) it will be about 1050 days or 22/10/44

ORIGINAL: jrcar

More than one LI production point can be repaired in a day.

Think you made a typo here Jcar. Only 1 point can be repaired per day.

Hope my maths is right... NB* in some economic modified scenario's this cost is mitigated in other ways.

[PaxMondo]

Damian,
 
Thanks for stopping by and your math is the same as mine, so I think it is correct.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Lots of very interesting discussion! With the scary stats Pax has given on fuel availability for the fleet, I think I'm going to try something new. I'm going to move fuel, oil and resources to Singapore and try to get it to migrate to Fusan where I can do the hop to Japan. I'm nervous about trying that because it may not move very well. Gotta think about it at work today....

Mike,

Starting this late to try and pull to Fusan will be a very low probability outcome. The way the resource flow model works ... well it has a lot of residence built into it. Meaning, once it is going one way, it doesn't like to change. My suggestion: Look at Port Arthur and Shanghai. See where your resources (oil, fuel, resources) are now pooling. It should be pretty clear where the excess is going: one or the other. That's the one you will want to choose to pull to. As short as Fusan? No, but still a lot shorter than coming from Shanghai.

To pull from Fusan, you have to start on Dec 7. Really. Since Fusan can only get to lvl 8 port and doesn't have the factories (resource etc) that the other ports do, it is an uphill battle against the model. But, it can be done.

Pax, I've been thinking about it all day and recalled other discussions about this. My fear is exactly what you describe. Right now I'm pulling resources from Shanghai and Fusan. The oil congregates at Pt. Arthur. I just allocated 2x Std-C TKs to pull oil from there since I now have a surplus with the liberation of Loyang and Sian. I think I'll leave it at that. I may test with some oil & resources to Hong Kong to see if it moves.

Rob's note gives a glimmer more of hope than I had thought, but I know from experience that I have only mediocre success given your current status. Still, even what you are doing compared to shipping all the way from Singers will save a lot of fuel.

TIP: start parking your least fuel efficient ships in a port in the HI and then as TF's return to the HI, send them by to suck those ships dry of fuel.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

TIP: start parking your least fuel efficient ships in a port in the HI and then as TF's return to the HI, send them by to suck those ships dry of fuel.

That's a great idea! My next xAK TF from Singapore that's carrying oil and resources is going to head to Hong Kong as a test case. If that works, I'll send those two commodities there and still ship fuel directly to the Home Islands. I don't want to suffer the spoilage the fuel would take to move across China.

[Mike Solli]

1 Jul 42

Wow, the last game entry was some 62 post ago. [X(] Lots of interesting discussion between then and now. [:D]

Sub War

Two US fleet subs attacked the xAK Kosei Maru near Saipan. Each hit her with a torpedo putting her under. She was carrying part of the 6 JNAF AF Unit. I really need those aviation support units down in SE Fleet area where that TF was headed. Fortunately, a PB rescued some of the troops. The rest of the convoy continued on south to Truk.

SE Fleet

Milne Bay was the recipient of the B-17 bombs today. [8|]

That's about it....

[Mike Solli]

2 Jul 42

Nothing much but B-17s visiting Lae.

The Nick Sentai made it's way to Rabaul where it'll rest for a few days before it goes into action. Two planes crashed on this last leg from Hollandia.

[Mike Solli]

3 Jul 42

Sub War

The Ro-61 caught and sank an xAKL off Cairns. Ted seems to have an unlimited supply of them. Hopefully some day I'll catch one that is carrying something important. [8|]

Yesterday, I noticed an Allied sub two hexes south of Davao. You'll recall that Davao is the home port of the Combined Fleet. It is also the hub for Tarakan, Kendari, Boela and Babo, as well as other ports occasionally. There is a constant flow of ships into and out of that port. I couldn't have an Allied sub sitting there so I formed 3 ASW TFs to prosecute it. One was PBs and the other 2 were top of the line DDs. The PBs attacked first doing pretty much nothing. Then the DDS went in, getting 3 depth charge hits and numerous near misses on the sub. She's still showing up in the hex but I'm sure she's not long for this world. Banzai! Ted's mistake here was posting her in a shallow hex.

SE Fleet

The B-17s rested today. All of my fringe airfields are in bad shape. Well, my engineers have plenty of work to do.

Both of the 5 Air Division LB sentai have upgraded to the shiny new Helen IIa. They are repairing and will begin bombing of Pt. Moresby as soon as they're ready.

The Nicks are stationed at Gasmata and will perform an 80% LRCAP mission over Salamaua tomorrow. Salamaua is in the best shape of the fringe airfields with 12 airfeld damage. Unfortunately, the airfield level is only 1.07. [8|] Now starts the guessing game of trying to figure out where the B-17s will hit next.

The 246 Sentai, recently arrived as part of the 51 Air Regiment (training) and assigned to the 5 Air Division (SE Fleet AO) will arrive at Rabaul in 2 days. This will give me 3x Oscar sentai available for that AO. I suspect I'm going to need it since Ted keeps threatening to send his 2E bombers in (by email). I checked and the closest airfield he can currently use is Cairns (level 7). From there, the B-25C can reach my fringe airfields at extended range. I currently hold air superiority over Pt. Moresby. Unless Ted can gain air superiority over PM, the B-25s will have to fly unescorted. Can anyone say fighter pilot experience? [:D]

Other Stuff

One of my Aden class xAKs sank today due to "unknown" reasons. She was fine yesterday and gone today. Hmm....

[Mike Solli]

Waiting for a turn and just looking at things. I see there are 332 Hitachi (early) engines in the pool, just sitting there rusting. Here's what I can build with them:

Ki-36 Ida
Ki-9 Spruce (3/45)
Ki-55 Ida (5/45)
Ki-76 Stella (7/44)
Ki-79a Nate (5/45)

I'm thinking Kamikaze fodder. Either the Ki-55 or Ki-79a. Neither is worth much but I can build 332 of them for 18 HI each. What are your thoughts? One of them? Something else? Don't bother?

[Chickenboy]

Yeesh. What rubbish! Hardly worth the 18 HI even with the engine 'savings'. [:(]

[Mike Solli]

Yeah, you're not kidding. The 2 I listed carry a 250 kg bomb out to 4 hexes then a 100 kg out to either 11 or 13 hexes. The rest are worse.

[Mike Solli]

4 Jul 42

The O34 was reported as sunk today. She's not showing up around Davao any more.

The Nicks had a pretty poor first showing. They were patrolling over Buna and the B-17s showed up. For the first time, the B-17s appeared with fighter escort. 20x P-40Es mixed it up with a dozen Nicks. I lost 4 Nicks for 2 P-40s. Fortunately, only 1 pilot was killed and 2 more were wounded. Ah well, such is life.

Nothing more to discuss happened today.

[jrcar]

Hey thanks Damian, I think I have seen some places repair more than one point at a time, same with repairing oil places, however haven't been watching it closely... more "thats nice two point repaired today". Need a lot of free supply, and little demand... but maybe wrong.

Regardless doing LI has a minimal return, and lots of other things to do with supply at the start.

Cheers

Rob

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I don't think these break even figures are correct.

The LI factories will begin to produce some LI after 1 factory has been repaired, no? Sure, at 1(99), it's only producing one / month, but it's not nothing. Then at 30(70), it's producing 1/day throughout the balance of repair. So it won't take 1000 days, but something less than that. My factorial / cumulative production math is failing me now (too lazy to make the requisite calculations), but I believe this number to be lower than 1000 days when this production is taken into account.

Wait, CB that's assuming you are expanding the LI factory more than just once. In your example, you'd actually be spending 100 x 1100 supply for a total of 110,000 supply. [X(] Then I think cumulative production would factor in as you suggest. In any other case, if you expanded a factory by a single point expending 1100 supply, I think it still means one point recovered per day for 3.01 years. Ugh.

Sorry, I had a brain fart in my previous post that jrcar has convienently pointed out. [:-] [:D]

Well, it all depends on the scenario multipliers, how much you expand and the cost of expanding your LI plant(this can be modified).

I'll use Scenario 1, SqzMyLemon is pretty much correct in the numbers, as well as Chickenboy.

Take a 0(0) LI plant at Dec 7, 1941 expand it to 0(30). This will cost per 1 point LI repair = 1100 (1000 per repair + 100 per initial expansion). So, 33,000 supplies.
It will take 30 days to repair, so for the first 30 days maths factoring is used (day1 = 1 supply created; 32999 owe || day2 = 2 supply; 32997 || day3 = 3 supply; 32994 etc) until day 30 and then 30 supply / day till in the black.

So, it will take 1115 days to pay back the supply.
So 26 Dec, 1944 until repaid

With the 0(100) it will be about 1050 days or 22/10/44

ORIGINAL: jrcar

More than one LI production point can be repaired in a day.

Think you made a typo here Jcar. Only 1 point can be repaired per day.

Hope my maths is right... NB* in some economic modified scenario's this cost is mitigated in other ways.

[jrcar]

Wow that much? Never gave it a thought to expand to that level. Agree with better to have forward where the resources / fuel is than back. That is why we went for Java, rather than Hong kong... if you do Java remember to ship resources, it needs them.


Cheers

Rob

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: jrcar

Mike we managed to do this however it was quite inefficient. Generally Fuel went OK, oil was a little more problematic going Bankkok to Saigon. In the end convoys from Palembang dropped off in Vietnam, a relatively direct route that then meant it flowed through China much better, although still not great. Part of this was we had plenty of tankers, plenty of fuel at Palembang, but the friction of loading was the choke point. So having the ships at sea longer actually eased the choke point.

In the end used smaller tankers (2850, 7950) to take to Singapore, Vietnam, Manila and Davao then used a larger TF to move it from there.

In hindsight we used more fuel than we should have in some of our raids, and should have repaired the oil centres at Miri.

I'm a bit caught on the whole LI thing... at our stage we have huge numbers of resources, especially in China, however we have done pretty good there. Repairing the LI (we did the HI) when we captured it would be starting to pay off now, the extra supply would be nice...

No sense in making more LI in Japan though. Ten you have to ship the resources there.

We did make more HI in Singapore and Sorebaya which has paid off well.

I built Hong Kong and Singapore to 100 HI and am building Soerabaja and Batavia up. I think that's the place to do it so you don't have to move as much stuff.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: jrcar

Wow that much? Never gave it a thought to expand to that level. Agree with better to have forward where the resources / fuel is than back. That is why we went for Java, rather than Hong kong... if you do Java remember to ship resources, it needs them.


Cheers

Rob

Rob, here's what I'm doing in Java:

I ship from the following bases to Java:

Java - 260 res
Kolaka - 40
Makassar - 20
Bandjermasin - 60
Pontianak - 20
Billiton - 20
Tobali - 20

That makes 8800 resources produced a day for Java. Recall that Soerabaja was 100% trashed so I'm still rebuilding the oil and refinery (resources completely rebuilt there) and increasing the HI there and increasing the HI in Batavia.

Batavia's LI is at 60 and Soerabaja's LI is 0.

When the oil and refineries are complete, I'll have 225 of each producing 2025 fuel a day.

The limiting factor is resources.

8800 resources produced
900 resources needed for the LI
7900 resources remaining / 20 resource per HI = 395 HI

Fuel: 2025 - (395*2) = 1235 * 30 = 37,050 fuel a month. Say 30-35k extra fuel with everything else consumed.

Supply production will be 1075 a day (*30 = 32,250) say ~30k supply a month.

Right now, resources are producing at full capacity so there is a huge surplus of that commodity. I need lots of supply in Java right now so there are regular supply convoys from Japan. Those convoys return to Japan with full loads of resources.

I suspect that Ted will go for Palembang at some point. I'm going to protect Java with the entire 16 Army, reinforced. I'll protect Palembang too, but I'm hoping Ted attempts to cut off Java, which really won't matter. By the time the HI, oil and refineries are complete, there'll still be a huge resource surplus so Java will be self sufficient, even if the small resource centers are cut off.

[Mike Solli]

5 Jul 42

The Helens made their first bombing raid of the war. In a night raid, a dozen Helens did light damage to Pt. Moresby and destroyed a P-39 and P-40 on the ground. Flak damaged one and we lost our first Helen of the war who crashed on it's way home.

I shut off the A6M2 factories, probably for good. There are 23 in the pool. The A6M3a research is at 89% and currently at Aug 42. Tomorrow it'll hit 95% and I'll upgrade 4 of the 6 factories to the A6M5. The remaining 2 factories (size 60 and 30) will become operational on 10 Jul 42. When I upgrade the factories, there will be 6x size 30 A6M5 R&D factories. I expect the A6M5 to become operational on 1 Nov 42.

New turn. Time to run it. [:D]

[Mike Solli]

6 Jul 42

SE Fleet

Another Helen went down in flames to flak over Pt. Moresby for no gain. What's up with the armor?

B-17s visited Finschaven destroying a couple of C5M2s on the ground. The Nicks are still recovering....

Burma

The Brits and Americans came up to fight over Chittagong. 30x Oscars met about the same number of Hurricanes and P-40Es. We lost 5x Oscars to 3x Hurricanes of various flavors and 2x P-40s. I'm still ahead here because Ted is reluctant to send his bombers in.

China

My army shock attacked across the river at Yenan today. My mistake was leaving a retreat route. I trounced the Chinese in a 25:1 attack. The Chinese had been out of supply for a time, which helped tremendously. They were composed of the following:

4x HQ
5x Chinese Corps
3x Chinese Divisions
1x Chinese Cavalry Corps
1x Base Force
2x Construction Regiments

They lost one division in the attack. Losses were 6449(12) Japanese to 9444(934) Chinese. They retreated to the SE where they are basically isolated. I was going to follow them and surround and destroy them, but I am going to surround them and use my Kwantung medium bombers to practice on them.

The resources at Yenan were captured at 31(9). Not bad.

Other Stuff

The A6M3a R&D reached 95% as I suspected. 4 of the size 30 factories upgraded to the A6M5 bringing that R&D to 6x 30 factories. The remaining 2 (size 60 & 30) will remain as A6M3a and will become operational in 3 days. Banzai!

[Mike Solli]

7 Jul 42

Sub War

The I-19 has been patrolling ~5 hexes NE of Pearl Harbor hoping for a convoy to resupply Hawaii. She found the CA Indianapolis and put a torpedo into her. She reportedly sank on the 8th but I doubt it. At any rate, she's out of the war for a bit, but so is the I-19. She ate a depth charge in retaliation. Her damage is 22-35(27)-1-0. She's limping to Kwajalein.

SE Fleet

The Helens are beginning to find their feet. They bombed Pt. Moresby destroying a P-40 on the ground and doing light damage to the airfield. I stationed 1x Helen sentai at Rabaul to bombard PM and the other is going to fly out of Hollandia to bombard Merauke.

B-17s visited Milne Bay today.

Burma

28 Oscars visited Chittagong to attempt to goad Ted into burning up some more of his fighters and he obliged. At a cost of 2 Oscars, three Hurricanes were shot down.

I have decided to withdraw from Imphal. My supply situation there doesn't allow me to carry on offensive ops. Since Ted will see me withdrawing, I'm going to stay in combat mode, just in case.

Other Stuff

Reinforcements:

DD Teruzuki (Akitsuki class) - KB
3 Air Army - will go to Singapore to free up some JAAF AF Bns for other areas.

I've been reading Greyjoys AAR and his issues stemming from a lack of engineers. I scoured my rear areas and found the following independent engineer regiments:

Kwantung: 3
China: 2
Japan: 1

I'm going to buy out those in Kwantung and China. Not sure about the one in Japan though. I'm going to push them forward to build forts in my key forward bases.