Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[PaxMondo]

Happy wife, happy life.  [:D]

[Cribtop]

OFFICIAL COMMUNIQUE

FROM - HQ Eastern Fleet

TO - The Admiralty, Whitehall, London

Sirs,

It is with great regret that I must inform you that our forces involved in the operation at Broome, Australia have been essentially destroyed by Japanese carrier aircraft. Three battleships, a light cruiser and two destroyers are sunk, two heavy cruisers badly damaged and unlikely to make port.

If it is any consolation, I can report that at least our brave ships died at sea in the grand tradition of the service, rather than awaiting their doom at anchor.

Please consider this missive my letter of resignation.

Signed,

Commander, Eastern Fleet

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

OFFICIAL COMMUNIQUE

FROM - HQ Eastern Fleet

TO - The Admiralty, Whitehall, London

Sirs,

It is with great regret that I must inform you that our forces involved in the operation at Broome, Australia have been essentially destroyed by Japanese carrier aircraft. Three battleships, a light cruiser and two destroyers are sunk, two heavy cruisers badly damaged and unlikely to make port.

If it is any consolation, I can report that at least our brave ships died at sea in the grand tradition of the service, rather than awaiting their doom at anchor.

Please consider this missive my letter of resignation.

Signed,

Commander, Eastern Fleet

[&o][&o][&o]

Something isn't clear to me Crib... when you spotted his Broome invasion fleet you were in the Bay of Bengal with the KB. It took you more than a week to sail south... why did he stayed there so long? I mean, with overwhelming forces he should have landed easily all he wanted and then simply retire his fleet into safer waters... why did he stay so long? when he realized that your KB wasn't in the Bay of Bengal anymore, why didn't he simply leave the area? Did he take Broome or not?

[Cribtop]

Good questions. CF landed in two waves, with the second wave landing about 3 days after the first, and that is what got him. Had he done a quick in and out, he would have gotten away with this move easily. He didn't get a whiff of my carriers until they sank his picket ship the day before the carrier battle.

I think he was counting on me having to sail to Singapore to re-fuel before coming on to Oz, and thought his sub horde in the area of Singers would give him warning. Instead, I had the fleet oilers with me full of 77K tons of fuel and was able to come straight at him around the "outside" of Sumatra.

IMHO the way to handle these things is to have the second wave together with the main force from the very beginning. Then if the first wave takes the base, you can begin landing follow on forces the day after it falls. It was the wait for the arrival of the second wave all the way in from Carnarvon that doomed the Allies here.

Also, I think CF underestimated the dangers inherent in an Op in NW Oz. The "corner" at Exmouth can be a death trap with no way out. Inherent to any Allied move up here would be build up of Carnarvon and Exmouth as seaplane and LBA bases, unless the Allies have significant carrier superiority. Since CF actually faced inferiority in CVs, these bases were even more important.

Finally, note again the advantages in ISR Japan enjoyed. As before at Torres Islands, the Allied CVs were under observation by search planes for days before the Japanese CVs come at them out of the blue. The intel advantage allowed maximization of operational and tactical advantages.

[witpqs]

Good analysis!

[princep01]

I fear Cuttlefish's morale level has dropped percipitously.  Another clear victory for the IJN and another steep setback to the Allied comeback schedule.  Well done.
 
 

[Cribtop]

February 6, 1943

Let's look in more detail at how things went down, beginning with a supremely frustrating day for the Empire!

Subs

No contacts. A fresh pulse of IJN subs is making for the harbor entrance at Broome to replace the subs forced to withdraw after tangling with the Wasp/Hornet TF. We also have sub minelayers on approach.

Combined Fleet/Southern Army

We guess right, CF stays put in Broome with his heavies. Yamato and Mushashi come in unopposed to bombard the port. So glorious, right? No! The super-battleships target his infantry, while the DDs bounce shells off the British ships at anchor. Sometimes this game will drive you crazy. We should have demolished his ships with 18 inch shells. I invented new cuss words watching this, I really did. Repulse, Valiant and Frobisher suffer nominal, non-penetrating hits.

We don't launch any port attacks in the AM phase, in the PM Bettys, Nells and KB's Kates come, but there are no 800kg bombs! I thought Kates only used them at Pearl Harbor but that 2E IJN LBA carried the big bombs. Ugh. We bounce 250kg bombs off the armor of Royal Sovereign, Valiant and Repulse. All are on fire. Kates also score penetrating hits on a CL, a DD and an xAP. Disappointing? You betcha!

Burma

As expected, the big UK SCTF spotted in the past few days comes in to bombard Cox's Bazaar. A mini sub in the hex does nothing, but poor moonlight and die rolls make the bombardment rather ineffectual. Resolution, Revenge, 3 CAs, 2 CLs and 6 DDs are present. Ramilles was part of this force but got sunk by subs and Nells over the past two days.

As day breaks, CF brings everything he's got at the airfield, including the first use of 4Es in India to date. He is learning to attack en masse. Still our group of 42 elite Tojos at CB does a great job of shooting down Hurricanes and Allied 2Es as four separate attack waves assault us. Despite the lopsided kill ratio, the airfield is at 71% damage and we will have to abandon it. Without supporting bases in range and with no rail line, this is a fight CF can win if he chooses.

CF sets a big CAP trap at Diamond Harbor, which he made the home port for the bombarding SCTF. Despite this, 36 Zeros perform very well, suffering losses but getting 24 Nells into the target. We should have done damage here, but thunderstorms ruin our aim and we get no hits. What a great turn!

We unload a ton of artillery units at Rangoon to assist in the defense of Taung Gyi, Prome and Toungoo.

Chittagong's defenses now are up to 11 LCUs. We are marching on the base as fast as possible, but Cribtop HQ is concerned we won't have enough to break through. If not, we fall back on CB and then seize Akyab.

Other

Fusan makes level 8 port. We'll see whether the land route thing works soon. Should I put a Naval HQ or some other HQ here to increase the flow?

[Cribtop]

February 7, 1943

A much better day...

Subs

Snapper duds on a big troopship moving 48th Division to Kendari in case we need the unit in Oz. Lucky for us! Gunnel sinks a small xAK near Ponape.

There are unexplained Allied sinking sounds. Best guess is some of the damaged ships from the Exmouth carrier battle foundered on the way back to Perth, probably CA Chester.

SE Fleet

Enemy B-24s bomb Horn Island. Namatanai makes airfield 3.

Combined Fleet/Southern Army

We assume CF will not sit in port to be slowly destroyed by our bombers, and thus task all LBA to go with Nav Attack/Port Attack while KB pulls back a bit to cover the point near Exmouth CF would reach assuming he ran at flank. He does indeed run.

Weather prevents most of KB's planes from reaching the target in the AM phase, but small strikes damage Valiant, Royal Sovereign, Repulse, Hawkins and CL Birmingham. We are to the point that some Kates don't have torpedoes, which is a concern.

In the PM phase, a much better co-ordinated strike, with more torpedo armed Kates, wreaks havoc. Royal Sovereign, Valiant, Repulse, Birmingham and DD Express are sunk outright. CA Hawkins and DD Inconstant suffer probably mortal wounds, CA Frobisher is hit but may survive. An IJN sub is waiting nearby to pick off cripples.

LBA attack and sink about 5 xAPs in port at Broome. Recon still shows several ships there, but the numbers are way down.

The enemy LCU formerly marching on Derby appears to have withdrawn to Broome.

Burma

Our Nells get some revenge today, catching the enemy SCTF withdrawing near Viz. BB Revenge and CA Devonshire each take a torpedo. Several IJN subs are in the path of the Royal Navy here and hopefully can do more damage.

Allied planes again bomb the airfield at CB, this time unopposed. The base is effectively closed.

17th Army is finally all present one hex from Chittagong. The enemy is up to 52K troops there, which is worrisome.

Uttaradit forts go to 2.

Analysis

KB is now very low on torpedoes, and enemy subs are beginning to enter the battle space. With the main UK battle fleet sunk, it is time to go. We will rely on LBA to finish off the remnants at Broome. The victorious IJN carriers will top off at Soerabaja and then move to Babeldoab. We will rest, refit ships and air groups, and rotate two CVs at a time home to Japan for long overdue upgrades.

It is time for the IJAAF to close the airfield at Broome. Subs, LBA and SCTFs will keep the enemy beach head here isolated.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: princep01

I fear Cuttlefish's morale level has dropped percipitously.  Another clear victory for the IJN and another steep setback to the Allied comeback schedule.  Well done.

Thanks, Princep. I have to say the results around Oz over the past week exceeded my rather high expectations. Just horrendous naval losses for CF with little to show for it. It can't be fun to endure. However, his e-mail communications are upbeat, with a little gallows humor thrown in when Wasp and Hornet went down. It appears he plans to fight on, which says a lot about his spirit. Still, I wonder at this point whether he has time to truly win. As discussed previously, he is basically limited to Burma until very late in '43.

[ny59giants]

Chittagong - The base comes with a static CD unit that you will have to face plus the three mobile Indian CD units. If you are going to take the base, you will need high disruption levels for his troops and the best way is from BB TF hitting the base repeatedly (don't get close enough to use DD to bombard). You can LRCAP the TF from Akyab. If possible, set some bombers to ground attack to try to disrupt and destroy those units moving in by rail. Good Luck!!

[Cribtop]

February 8, 1943

Things begin to quiet down as KB withdraws.

Subs

IJN escorts DC Gunnel near Truk, then Gunnel shoots back but misses. A Sally from Cam Ranh Bay claims a hit on a sub.

Search planes spot a USN sub lurking near Bali. We will flood the passages of the lesser Sundas with ASW assets to facilitate KB's move back to Soerabaja tomorrow.

SE Fleet

Recent losses of small merchants to subs, plus the marvelous Imperial supply situation (3.6 million tons in Tokyo alone and all other major bases well stocked), convince Cribtop HQ to save fuel and end the hauling of resources from Nauru and Ocean Islands. This was an experiment, and on the whole it worked fine, but the costs now outweigh the benefits.

Combined Fleet/Southern Army

KB withdraws and should make Soerabaja tomorrow. Then on to Babel for R&R.

No naval attacks today. The only enemy shipping spotted near Oz is the remnants of the UK SCTF limping south near Exmouth at a reported speed of 2 knots. We are disappointed our sub there didn't get a shot but the enemy is moving so slowly we may get another try tomorrow.

Afternoon port attacks by IJNAF and even IJAAF bombers sink 5 xAP and 1 xAK in harbor. After the replay there is no longer an anchor symbol at Broome despite DLs of 9/11. Ouch.

Before and after the port attacks, there are numerous unexplained sinking sounds. The "afters" were surely the doomed merchies at Broome. Cribtop Intel suspects the "befores" were CA Hawkins, a UK DD, and perhaps CA Chester.

Burma

CF again pounds the airfield at Cox's Bazaar into dust. We are worried that 17th Army, now about two days march from Chittagong, is next. Concern is growing at Cribtop HQ that the enemy has the combat power at Chittagong to stop us. We will know soon enough.

41st Division outraces the bulk of the Commonwealth army from Meiktila to reinforce Taung Gyi. We now have 1000 AS behind level 4+ forts in X3 terrain. We believe Taung Gyi is safe at these levels, especially given IJAAF air supremacy here.

We notice that the max supply draw numbers are back on Burmese bases. Did the monsoon kick in early?

China

23rd Army arrives at Tuyun, as does the IJAAF in numbers. We will bombard tomorrow and assess. Assumption is the Chinese here are starving.

Other

Fuel, oil and resources are flowing along the new convoy routes after effectively taking January off. We believe we can move a lot of oil and fuel to the Home Islands this coming Spring. Fuel will get priority as we have 900K tons at Singers and another 225K at Hong Kong. Then oil will be drained and we will move into maintenance mode. The first new convoy of 80K fuel is already loaded and makes Sasebo in two or three days.

Today our stockpiles hit the 1,000,000 HI mark. Nice. We are adding a bit less than 5,000 per day.

[Capt. Harlock]

Fuel, oil and resources are flowing along the new convoy routes after effectively taking January off. We believe we can move a lot of oil and fuel to the Home Islands this coming Spring. Fuel will get priority as we have 900K tons at Singers and another 225K at Hong Kong. Then oil will be drained and we will move into maintenance mode. The first new convoy of 80K fuel is already loaded and makes Sasebo in two or three days.

Today our stockpiles hit the 1,000,000 HI mark. Nice. We are adding a bit less than 5,000 per day.

The military situation and the economy both look pretty good. Do you see the possibility of auto-victory by the end of 1943?

[Cribtop]

A few thoughts as the wildly successful Operation Katana comes to a close.

Losses for IJN: 2 Myoko class CAs, three sort of modern DDs, less than 15 planes and less than 10 pilots.

Confirmed losses for Allies: Hornet, Wasp (with all of their air groups), BB Royal Sovereign, BB Ramilles (in Burma), BB Valiant, BC Repulse, CA Canberra, CL Nashville, CL Phoenix, CLAA San Juan, CL Birmingham, CL Adelaide, 8-10 DDs, over 20 xAP and xAK of various sizes.

Believed lost or mortally wounded: CA Chester, CA Hawkins

Damaged: BB Revenge, CA Dorsetshire (both in Burma), CA Frobisher

Analysis

In general, we don't want to do much from a naval perspective except catch up on ship and air group upgrades. However, Cribtop Intel strongly believes the IJN is master of the Pacific, with only CV Enterprise and whatever the Royal Navy has in terms of carriers to oppose a full KB with 8 CV and 4 CVL. The question arises - should we do something with the Navy in the coming months? Is there a worthwhile strategic target that will further delay Allied naval superiority? I can't really think of one, but I'm willing to consider options if they are available. This is definitely not creeping victory disease. My default position is to sit tight, but I'm willing to hear good arguments to the contrary.

EDIT: Concerning auto victory. Yes, it's possible. The current VP ratio is just about 3:1 after the Battle of Exmouth. If we can reap strategic success in India and hold off serious counterattacks, we may win on Jan 1, 1944. Then again, there's a lot CF can potentially do in Burma that may impact these calculations. I think we are to the point that Burma and India are the decisive theaters. CF won't have a big enough fleet to impose his will in the Pacific theaters until too close to '44 to matter. We must apply maximum effort in Burma and Assam.

[adm]

I see two choices here;

1) Keep the Fleet centrally located as a "Fleet in being", in order to keep Cuttlefish cautious of where it is/when it may strike at his forces. This is a safe choice that ought to work well with Cuttlefish's style of play.

2) Use a portion of the Fleet in the Bay of Bengal, forcing Cuttlefish to run all of his troops and supplies through the Burmese bottleneck. The rest of the Fleet can be kept in the Pacific being refitted, as well as being available for any mischief that the Americans may attempt.

Another thought, perhaps a second Pearl Harbor strike, to further disrupt the American's Pacific campaign?

[Alfred]

Yes siree, there sure is a worthwhile target for the IJN. Wouldn't even need to be the main battleline or KB to accomplish the blockade.

If you know the arrival dates for Allied units at Aden, park the IJN outside of the wormhole and force the Allied command into a quandry; how to get the reinforcements onto the map. Does it reduce the air power pressure currently being exerted in Assam by relocated some air power to Karachi/Surat?

If you go down this path you might want to investigate the possibility of establishing a support base; perhaps conquering Ceylon, maybe Diego Garcia etc.

Yes siree, blockades are such a much more historical suitable fit for naval operations than shore/air bombardment of heavily fortified enemy bases.

Alfred

[Crackaces]

Yes siree, blockades are such a much more historical suitable fit for naval operations than shore/air bombardment of heavily fortified enemy bases.

And the Air bombardment of heavly fortified bases has dramaticaly changed in recent Beta changes .. A second Pearl Harbor for instance would be disasterious with mimimal air cover just the LBA flak units will do the trick of damaging and killing platforms .. even a raid on Colombo would take its toll with LBA flak alone ..

Whatever Cribtop decides .. he must not snatch defeat from the hands of victory .. [8D]

[Mikawa]

Agree with Alfred that blockading Bay of Bengal to slow down flow troops and supplies to Burma theatre is a strong option. Like the idea of Ceylon invasion to establish LBA base. Worth serious consideration. Could be accomplished with portion KB which can then fall back once LBA is established.

A Pearl H. attack would be too costly in trained pilots and airframes.

Sorry for being too lazy to go back and look this up, but does CF still hold Port Moresby and if so, how built up is it?

[Cribtop]

A great suggestion by Alfred. Doable, relevant and effective. Time to plan.

Mikawa, we took Port Moresby early on before CF could reinforce. It is garrisoned by 4th ID, a base force and an engineer unit with 100 prep and level 6 forts. We also have a corps HQ 1 hex away with soon to be 100 prep and 2nd Area Army HQ in range (Lae) with 100 prep. PM is very secure, eh?

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

... PM is very secure, eh?

Until the allies are able to muster concentrated 4E's, yes. Don't get too confident, neh? [;)]

edit: but yes, you have PM about as well defended as you can.

[Cribtop]

True, and IIRC, CF is just starting to get a bunch of B-24s per month. He can still win, but can he win by 12/45? Quite possible, but not a sure thing. Any hope for Japanese victory is more than we expected! [:D]