The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[GreyJoy]

China, with stacking limits and DBB rules becomes a really interesting theatre. The fact that now manouvre becomes decisive really gives something more to the game. Now both players have to chose the best terrain, the best supply-routes, the best army composition.
 
A blast!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I will also say that I love 1942 when the game and survival of the Allies is in question (at least against an experienced, aggressive, and capable IJ player).  The tension of fighting against overwhelming numbers is just a blast.  So, whereas many players seem to hate AV, I love it.  Love it.  Love it.

I'm in my fourth pass through 1942, first PBEM. Like I said, it's a challenge, it's eat-your-brocolli, but it's not "fun" in some senses.

It's like lifting weights. You feel good, look good, have a sense of accomplishment. But at some point you want to use the muscles in a real game, not stand at the bar flexing.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents, in my discussions with John prior to launching this game, the topic of auto vic was never mentioned.  In other words, there were no expectations by either side in that regard.  I did tell Moose via PM that I did not think auto vic was a realistic possibility in this scenario for several reasons:  (1) Japan doesn't get the Scenario Two extra divisions which can make a huge difference in a conquest of India or Oz; (2) I know my opponent well.  Given his aggressiveness, I was confident I could attrit him efficiently so that a 4:1 ratio would be highly improbable.

I think Alfred's comments are right on the mark.

The RA scenario details are important in this case, but in an overall sense I think that my crusade (and Alfred's, but he can speak for himself) to urge PBEM players to play to the design are vital to the long term future of AE. I see the constant abandonment of games by Japanese players who "don't pay attention to VPs" and don't play to win the game, as perhaps leading to the demise of PBEM. Allied players get tired of playing 1942 over and over and over. Not only is it not "fun" in a sense, even if it is a challenge, but it robs both players of seeing the huge amount of gameplay which is included in the game design and purchase price during the out years.

If anything can kill the game and the forum culture over time it's going to be mid-game quitting.

What i meant earlier (that a jap player should not seek for auto vic) is that looking for auto victory in 1.1.1943 often pushes, even not completely consciously, the non-too-experienced player to overextend, overreact and to accept risks (both tactically and strategically) that shouldn't be accepted, leading very often to an early crushing defeat which is the prologue to a surrender.
A wise Japanese player, imho, should always and only aim to last, in a decent fighting shape, till seprember 1945.
Personally i'm playing my first Pbem match as Japan having in mind only this objective. I really do not look at VPs ratio... i try to always look to the future of my empire, trying to slow the allied advance everywhere i can, but always taking what i believe are acceptable risks.
I perfectly agree with moose and Alfred but i think that VPs, per se, could be, sometimes, misleading if not judged properly

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

What i meant earlier (that a jap player should not seek for auto vic) is that looking for auto victory in 1.1.1943 often pushes, even not completely consciously, the non-too-experienced player to overextend, overreact and to accept risks (both tactically and strategically) that shouldn't be accepted, leading very often to an early crushing defeat which is the prologue to a surrender.
A wise Japanese player, imho, should always and only aim to last, in a decent fighting shape, till seprember 1945.
Personally i'm playing my first Pbem match as Japan having in mind only this objective. I really do not look at VPs ratio... i try to always look to the future of my empire, trying to slow the allied advance everywhere i can, but always taking what i believe are acceptable risks.
I perfectly agree with moose and Alfred but i think that VPs, per se, could be, sometimes, misleading if not judged properly

I agree with you right up to the point where an Auto-vic try results in a crushing defeat and the Japanese player quits. A newbie who tries AV without understanding the implications and gets whipped SHOULD lose the game. But he should stick around and lose, or, said another way, give the Allied player the honor of beating him.

And we both know it's not always newbies who quit mid-game. Look at CR's history.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I hate to see games end, but it really comes down to the compatibility of opponents, that's the key to finding lasting games in my opinion.

Yes. That's the way I feel as well, SqzMyLemon. Compatibility of opponents is foremost in selection criteria. "Marry in haste, repent at leisure" or some such.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents, in my discussions with John prior to launching this game, the topic of auto vic was never mentioned.  In other words, there were no expectations by either side in that regard.  I did tell Moose via PM that I did not think auto vic was a realistic possibility in this scenario for several reasons:  (1) Japan doesn't get the Scenario Two extra divisions which can make a huge difference in a conquest of India or Oz; (2) I know my opponent well.  Given his aggressiveness, I was confident I could attrit him efficiently so that a 4:1 ratio would be highly improbable.

I think Alfred's comments are right on the mark.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hopefully this game will go the limit, but the three games I played before this ended in 1/43, 12/42, and 6/42, each at the request or disappearance of the Japanese player (I need to clearly state for the record that I agreed with Chez's offer of a ceasefire as that game had just gone completey weird).  But, like Moose says, it gets really old for an Allied player to never get deep into '43 or later.

I will also say that I love 1942 when the game and survival of the Allies is in question (at least against an experienced, aggressive, and capable IJ player).  The tension of fighting against overwhelming numbers is just a blast.  So, whereas many players seem to hate AV, I love it.  Love it.  Love it.

Alfred hits a lot of good points. What is missed there is what I mentioned above. Regardless of whether you had any discussion with John about auto vic, (and how much you want to go through the tension of someone trying for it early, by 1/43 as you say, not later as Alfred suggests), he knew about it. It was broadcast in the opponent's wanted ad for one. Your previous AARs have many discussions of it. This is a know quantity in the CR personality. Thus it creates pressure for an opponent to do something special.

Also, he knows, as we all know, that your AAR will be a meeting place of all players from both sides of the fence, one of the few places where that happens. Whatever happens in the game, it is public in a big way. It is discussed and rehashed. When you go through the opening moves for the Japanese there is already a lot of pressure to get it right. Throw all of these things on top, and against a very good opponent in yourself, and that makes for some psychological difficulties (meaning just phaffing around without direction) which seems to have happened in your last two games. Players will freak out, try for a home run (KB in NZ anyone, Bettys in the Alaska panhandle?) when they can't make normal objectives because they tried to do it on the cheap.

Regardless, all I'm trying to put forward is that I love your AAR because it's a great read as well as a community meeting point. I, selfishly, don't want to see it end abruptly and far too soon. Have a chat and pick him up off the floor where he's been wallowing about his under committed ground troops so you guys can move ahead and have a game.

[Canoerebel]

3/10/42
 
NoPac:  Yamato and three CAs bombard Cold Bay ineffectively.  Good to see these guys up here.  Big question:  did the bait draw the carriers?  I think there's a 50% chance it did.
 
Pacific:  John is making some "mop op" landings in the Santa Cruz Islands - small force, nothing major.  I don't yet know if he's willing to take on any opposition he thinks might be serious.  Luganville, Noumea and Fiji will be the tests (none of them are strongly garrisoned, but John probably doesn't know precisely what's there).  27th/B Div. transports just passed Dunedin en route to Melbourne.  QE might catch them.  The American carriers are just south of Tahiti, awaiting replenishment TFs.
 
Oz: The strange Japanese army seems to have retired from the front of Geraldton.  I need time in order to orchestrate a reasonable defense of the Perth region - probably two or three weeks before American troops and aircraft reach Oz in meaningful numbers.  I hope I have the time.  (By the way, Japanese subs have been almost completely absent from Oz the entire game, which may be telling.)
 
India:  Japanese subs have been more common around Ceylon and India, though I think a move on India proper is highly unlikely (Diego, Ceylon, and a limited NE India offensive are still on the table).  7th Oz Div. is mostly at Bombay now.  Prep for Cocos Island is in the 30s.  I'm beginning to move engineers forward.  I think Dimapur, which is on the rail south of Ledo, will be a primary base.
 
China:  The Chinese at Liuchow dispatched the two advance IJA tank regiments.  The Japanese force at Kweilin is weak, so I can draw down some of the Chinese garrison to reinforce the Liuchow sector, which is where John's going next.  Two IJA divisions deliberate attacked at Changsha, dropping forts from 3.92 to 3.00, but both were badly disrupted.  John is reinforcing this attack, but the Allies have plenty of units in adjacent hexes and good roads, so this won't work.  As I mentioned a few days ago, John is working China hard.  The Chinese MLR is intact and things look pretty good, but he will keep probing for weaknesses.
 
Invasion Bonus:  This is not the be-all and end-all for Japan, but it's still rather surprising that we're three weeks from the bonus expiring.  John hasn't engaged in an opposed amphibious operation of any significance since Cocos Island back in early or mid January.

[BBfanboy]

Two things seem to be happening:

1. He is pushing hard in China in hopes to smash enough Chinese units to free up some IJA divisions to finish his half-done jobs all over the map. This cannot happen quickly because of the rapid Chinese regeneration, unless he is in a postion to take Lanchow and the Chungking plains area.

2. He doesn't know where the Allied carriers are. Yamato and company in NoPac seem likely to be bait with KB waiting backstage. The massive sub influx into the IO is in hopes of finding the carriers there. He has already tried the foray into Oz/NZ/SoPac waters, and then moved back through Centpac.

He has been reading your old playbooks and it isn't working, other than predicting the Cocos Island reinforcement early on.

[Canoerebel]

Right now China is in good shape.  It's possible somewhere down the road the wheels could come off, but it will be too late to help John in Phase II. I intend to hold the MLR in China, but even if I don't succeed it would be many months before the core of the country would be in trouble.  John's army is spread out and not in a good position to exploit any breakthroughs.

[Canoerebel]

Current assessment by area of Japanese threat levels in China:

A. Liuchow: This is the most active sector. John knows the city is weakly garrisoned by about 250 AV. But 600 AV are on the way and will arrive before the Japanese army does. Assessment: This is the area of most concern and activity. The Chinese will hold this unless John brings in more than the Chinese can handle, which is possible but not likely.

B. Kweilin: I was worried about this base until I learned that the bulk of the IJ army moving in to siege consisted of artillery. The Chine have far more than Japan and can afford to move some units to Liuchow. Assessment: Probably won't become active. Minimal danger at the moment.

C. Changsha: John has just moved in two divisions, which tried a deliberate attack that dropped forts from 3.92 to 3.00. The Allies have just 350 AV here, but can easily and quickly reinforce. John was encouraged by the attack and will reinforce, but I don't think he can bring enough to mount a serious threat. Assessment: Active but minimal danger.

D. Chenge: I was worried about this vector six weeks ago, but the IJ army is one divisions and lots of arty. Assessment: Inactive and minimal danger.

E. The Wilderness: This is a small IJ army that is isolated, in the middle of nowhere, a threat to do nothing, and unable to receive reinforcements in any efficient way. Assessment: No danger.

F. Nanyang/Sian Front: The Chinese outnumber the Japanese in every hex and have good defensive terrain. Assessment: Inactive and minimal risk, though I have to watch for reinforcements or a flank move against Lanchow to the west (true).

[Canoerebel]

3/11/42
 
NoPac:  BBs Mutsu and Nagato show themselves, joining Yamato in this theater.  There's almost no way John would chance such a force without allowing for the possibility my carriers are nearby.  I assess the likelihood of meaningful IJN carrier presence here at 75%.
 
Pacific:  American carriers are south of Tahiti and topped off the tanks.  Next stop Melbourne, unless something truly juicy turns about around Fiji or Noumea in the next few days (unlikely).
 
Oz:  No signs of imminent enemy moves on SW or NE Oz.  Darwin is basically undefended and will fall from the rear in less than a week.
 
DEI:  Singers still stands and its AA guns are still firing.  John must be truly cowed by his experience here.    SigInt shows a road construction unit and a small base force at Cocos.  I think I'll set up the invasion this way:  Marine raiders to go in first to recon by fire and judge opposition.  If the odds look decent, two regiments of 7th Aussie Div. go in supported by one American tank unit, and, I hope, one American combat engineer unit.  Cover provided by 5 USN CVs and 2 RN CVs.  The RN slow BBs can handle bombardment.  This could come together in about a month, though I won't pull the trigger unless I'm comfortable that the Allied carriers would have better than parity.
 
India:  No signs of danger.  Even Port Blair is fairly quiet, though that will end unhappily within two weeks (else John's timidity is expanding uncontrollably).
 
China:  The MLR looks really good at the moment.  The Chinese have shifted to cover all recognized threats.  A couple of IJA units may get isolated if John isn't careful.

[princep01]

The Chinese at Liuchow dispatched the two advance IJA tank regiments.
 
Does this mean "dispatched" as in destroyed, or "dispatched" as in, Princep dispatched an embassary to the dungeon to check on Greyjoy's well being?  In other words did you crush the buggers or simply slap them around a bit and send them scurrying away?

[Canoerebel]

3/12/42
 
NoPac:  Three IJN CAs lead a raid against Kodiak harbor, sinking three coastal ships.  For reasons I'll go into in just a moment, I now rate the possibility of serious IJN carriers here at 25%.

Pacific:  Well, part of the KB (the Pearl Branch, perhaps augmented) showed up nine hexes SSE of Sydney.  This was impossible.  I had a perhaps a score ships innocently ringing the Tasman Sea, kind of like a donut.  Voila!  The KB shows up right in the middle of the hole of the donut, never having molested the donut itself; never having given itself away.  Shazaam!  It's magic!  (QE and another important troop convoy form the southeast quadrant of the donut; they are at a safe distance but will veer off to the side to evade danger.) At a distance of nine hexes, massed Kates hit Sydney harbor, sinking a handful of coastal ships and one xAK.  (Melbourne, at a distance of ten hexes from the KB, had 41 ships including one CA, several CL, an AS, and several AO.  They are scattering).  If this is part of a strategic undertaking by Japan, my hat's off to John for springing an unlikely appearing act.  If this is part of good operational plan (such as clearing way for an invasion of Noumea), my nod to him.  If this is another tactical adventure ala the recent New Zealand raid....[8|]

DEI:  AA fire at Singers is growing weak.  John's has to have noticed.  An attack will come soon.

Indian Ocean:  The DEI Branch of the KB appeared - Voila, Part II! - north (true) of Ceylon.  It sank an XAKL and DD Walke.  If this is part of a bold strategic move, I tip my cap to John.  If this is part of a good operation plan (such as clearing way for an invasion of Port Blair or Chittagong or Ceylon), my nod to him.  If this is another tactical adventure....well, you get the idea.

China:  MLR looks fine.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: princep01

The Chinese at Liuchow dispatched the two advance IJA tank regiments.
 
Does this mean "dispatched" as in destroyed, or "dispatched" as in, Princep dispatched an embassary to the dungeon to check on Greyjoy's well being?  In other words did you crush the buggers or simply slap them around a bit and send them scurrying away?

princep01, would that embassary be someone who came from the embassy but was embarassed to admit it, or an emissary acting on Adm. CRs behalf?
Perhaps the Japanese units in question were given buses so they could leave "with dispatch" instead of scurrying?
Given CRs interest in Civil War battles, I suspect "dispatched with bayonets" was the most likely meaning!

[crsutton]

It seems like John is just frittering away the most important months of the war for Japan. There does not seem to be enough focus. But perhaps he has something nasty up his sleeve.

[ny59giants]

Lowe Howe Island gets a large AV or two AVDs to allow me to base a PBY group there for early warning. Many Japanese players will go for a KB raid of these two bases early in the game. Its a little late for it now, but this is part of John's MO. He has always been fixated on raids that sink ships without any other reason that get a large body count.

[Canoerebel]

NYGiants, I sometimes do that with Lord Howe, but I had implemented a different set of precautions this time.  I have PBYs at Luganville and Noumea.  I have patrolling AMs east of Brisbane and Syndey, and others east and south of Tasmania.  Then I have regular but small cargo TFs working between SE Oz and the north and south islands of New Zealand.  I had also emptied Brisbane and Sydney and moved everything to the comparative safety of Melbourne.  IE, I had installed plenty of trip wires, but the KB penetrated every layer without detection.

Princep, the two small tank units were roughed up (I think 25 tanks destroyed, 25 disabled) but not destroyed.

[Encircled]

Though its annoying that an asset like the KB can slip through undetected, it does reinforce the point that you have to prepare for everything.

As an AI player, I take far too many risks in this regard and I've got to cut it out.

Maybe he's hoping to catch a juicy troop convoy?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Though its annoying that an asset like the KB can slip through undetected, it does reinforce the point that you have to prepare for everything.

As an AI player, I take far too many risks in this regard and I've got to cut it out.

Maybe he's hoping to catch a juicy troop convoy?

He may yet catch one! Tense moment!

CR, have you ever looked at the experience levels of those PBY units in Nav Search? I did so in December 1941 and found nearly all of them were very low - in the 20s on average if I recall. Reliable recon requires much better numbers.
He must have been lucky to miss all the other tripwires though! Perhaps he used Glen-equipped subs to peg the positions of the patroling AMs?

[Canoerebel]

3/13/42
 
I took decent, but not great, precautions in Oz.  Weeks ago I sent all the good, long-dstance transports and tankers to Capetown and West Coast. Then I emptied Sydney of even small stuff. Melbourne had mostly small stuff.  And my combat TFs - about five of them including Prince of Wales, New Orleans, Australia and Canberra - were dispersed in the small ports between Melbourne and Perth.  Then I set out the patrolling AMs and set up a network of CS convoys to keep the lanes occupied.  Nevertheless, the KB appeared out of nowhere.

John politely accepted my request not to comment on a turn before I have a chance to "watch the movie" (as Bullwinkle puts it).  Thus, he saved me the surprised pleasure of watching the KB penetrate between Melbourne and Tasmania to clobber my fleet of mostly ugly ducklings.  Twenty-six ships sunk in this raid today, with more to follow tomorrow!  More about this in just a moment.

NoPac:  Same beehive of enemy activity.  Cold Bay airfield goes to level two tomorrow.

West Coast:  An armored unit departs LA tomorrow, carried by a half dozen APs that are need in the Indian Ocean for the Cocos Island invasion.

Pacific:  The American carriers are well SW of Tahiti en route to Dunedin.  Several BBs are in a trailing combat TF.  The Japanese are mopping up the Santa Cruz Islands, including Ndeni.  Will John come for Luganville, which has 125 AV?

Oz:  Okay, a might segment of the KB - 150 fighters, 200+ bombers - is between Oz and Tasmania and targets ships at Melbourne, "hidden" at Portea, and fleeing west.  I lose 14 xAKL, three xAK, one AM, three TK, five AO (four of which are Tans), one AG, one PC, and one AMc.  Three of those ships - one xAK and two TK are worth more than five points.  The rest are small stuff.  More chickens are fleeing west and John sees them.  I will lose more tomorrow. I think all my most important ships - especially the combat ships - are too far west to be in danger.  If John runs at flank speed, though, I may be in for a painful day.  A big xAK carrying a P-40E unit is two hexes from Adelaide and very much in harm's way.  But I'll send here to port because I think she'll unload before havoc erupts. QE and the other troop transports are just SW of New Zeland and holding there until the KB clears out.

Oz Air:  In a case of bad timing, just three days ago (the day before the KB showed up) I had three P40E squadrons in Oz.  One at Sydney and two just transferred from Melbourne to Perth to help with the Geraldton defense.  All these were just three days from withdrawl dates.  There were big PP bonuses to be harvested, I didn't want to chance forgetting to withdraw them timely, and there was not a whiff of proximate danger, so I withdrew them.

DEI:  Still quiet at Singers, where a few AA guns are still firing.  John doesn't realize that a few Dutch patrol planes are flying supply from Batavia.

India:  No sign of the KB operating north of Ceylon.  India has alot of aircraft right now, including American fighter squadrons.  But the shelves in Oz are bare, though much are en route from Capetown right now.

China:  MLR looks good.  John hasn't bombed Changsha in several days, so all damage has been fixed.  I've moved four P-40E squadrons to the base (including the full AVG) in hopes of molesting a few bomber raids.