John is a navy guy in the same way that, in years past, some air force guys thought they could win the war through strategic bombing. John thinks first and foremost navy. He knows he has an army and an airforce, but they are secondary and of relatively little interest to him. His heart is at sea. This makes him bold and creative and one dimensional.
I understand being a navy guy. I'm a navy guy. But a navy isn't for running around rabbit-punching merchants. I've said it here before and I'll say it again: In my first week at OCS they pounded into us "A navy only exists to affect events ashore." It was true at Salamis, it was true at Trafalgar, and it's true in the PTO.
This is the gist of it. A very good and very concise critique.
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel P.S. May the circumstances too good to be true come true. (Four American carriers flying substandard fighters aren't a lock against two IJN CVs and a CVL, but when am I ever going to get another such chance?)
I hope you do pull off an intercept, CR. John has subdivided his CVTFs to the point of distraction, deftly ignoring the myriad historical warnings about the IJN doing so IRL. He's having fun spraying a few scattered bombs and torpedoes around instead of focusing his naval capabilities on a strategic endgame. He deserves a punishing loss.
It's tough for me not to have this response as well, although really, is he going to change his stripes now because he loses a couple of CVs? Probably not. It's just a shame not to have a game that is really pushing you, Dan, to a higher level through forcing deep defense and counter-play on a strategic level.
What I would love is if next time he ran around 1000 miles from anything important for him to guard, that you put a few divisions on Sumatra! Something on that order would certainly show the folly of this kind of foray.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
Today was a painful day for the Allies. With all eyes on Oz, I turn my attention there first.
Battle of the SW Cape: Kates from the Perth Branch of the DEI finally got in some licks, putting two TT into PoW. Exeter is a burning hulk. A Dutch CL or two succumbed to wounds. Other ships suffered assorted damage. Meanwhile, one-third of the Sydney Branch of the KB finished off three minelayers and CA New Orleans somehow mistook orders to flee for orders to engage and sailed right into the hurricane. She's only suffered moderate damage, but that will change tomorrow. I have grave doubts that PoW will escape. She can still make 18 knots, but she'll take more damage tomorrow and then the sharks will circle to finish her off. So, tactically speaking, this is turning to a drawn-out nightmare.
Too Good to be True: Meanwhile, the Shokaku TF is SE of Hobart. She's moving in to rendezvous with a replenishment TF. The big question becomes: after replenishing, does she move north through the Tasman Sea towards Rabaul, oblivious to the danger, or does John do the sensible thing and have her skedaddle west to join her sister carriers and safety? The American carriers are 56 hexes distant and have clinched the intercept angle should Shokaku TF move north towards the Coral Sea. If she doesn't, I may try to intercept the replenishment ships (the strategic reasoning behind showing my carriers was mentioned a couple of posts ago). The replenishment convoy is 46 hexes distant from my carriers. None of my carrier ships are flying search.
NoPac: Status quo.
Pacific: QE and big reinforcement convoy are east of Wellington (and have been for a week) steering clear of danger. More reinforcement convoys are in the final days before reaching Tahiti, en route to Melbourne.
DEI: Singers AA continues to fire. No enemy attack yet.
India: Peaceful. In Burma, John is wrapping up the conquest of the road into the jungle from Schwebo.
China: MLR intact.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
By now, all the KB groups shoulld be running short on sorties and torps, even if they do manage to refuel.
I hope you can make the intercept before the Hobart group heads west.
PS - I agree with your attempt at using your cruisers and PoW for a surface intercept - the calculated risk says getting to his CVs would have been worth it psychologically, even if you didn't manage to sink any.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
I think you can all imagine that it's no fun being on the "driven" and "whipped" end of this leash. It's even more difficult to pen for public reading the results of my failure to establish adequate security.
Nevertheless, no matter what happens as this KB raid winds down, it's not going to have a real impact on the Allies, barring only a carrier defeat. John is doing some whipping at sea, but on the land he's done nothing substantial in months. Long terms, that's the true tale of how the game is going (but I sure do hope Shokaku and friends are heading north....I may know next turn; if not then definitely the day after, at which time my carriers will sit astride the route through the northern Tasman Sea.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
So far you don't appear to have lost anything that wasn't historically lost in the first five months of the war, so it's no big deal in my opinion. I agree that it seems that he has sent the KB "a sea too far" - exposing them to combat a long way from any repair/replenishment bases. While he can refuel them at sea in order to replenish the bomb loads he'll have to find a port and so will be vulnerable.
John's use of KB reminds me of some of JEB Stuart's forays. A shame he caught up with the good stuff, but he is taking on big risks for at best low medium rewards.
By all means go for the Shokaku group intercept if he heads north. An exchange battle in 42 is a win for the Allies.
3/20/42
Today had all kinds of bumps and bruises and unkindnesses, and yet it really was a good day for the Allies. Am I just putting lipstick on a pig? Read on and arrive at your own conclusions:
Battle of the SW Cape: Like startled chickens, Allied ships are fleeing in all directions, some undamaged, some lightly damaged, some mortally stricken. One branch of the KB is right off Perth and seems about out of sorties. The second is a little bit further south and appears to be in the same condition. The original "Perth Branch" of the KB - the one that formed the anvil - is west of Geraldton and still has sorties and is still doing some damage, but blessedly little today. The bullk of my Australia navy is now pulling away from the coast (the the Anvil KB is still mixing it up good. There's a chance now that many or most of my ships will make it to map's edge. PoW looks better - FLT damage dropped and she's making about 18 knots despite five more bomb hits. If she eats another torp, she might stop dead in the water, but time is here friend now. The enemy carriers are low on sorties and low on fuel. That's also the only hope for New Orleans, which is heavily damaged in Perth's little harbor. One of the Sydney KBs is right there. If it has even one sortie left, NO is toast. If the KB is dry, though, NO just might survive. At least for a few more days.
Too Good to be True: Alas, it is too good to be true. The third branch of the original Sydney KB has refueled and is moving west as is the replenishment TF. These ships are 46 and 49 hexes west of my carriers. There is no chance of catching them unless they slow down or turn around, which is most unlikely. My carriers will continue west, since they are bound for Melbourne anyhow, but there is no hope left. However, I may offload the fighters and try to get them to Perth to provide some air cover. This original Sydney KB still has sorties and will apply the coup de grace to NO. For reasons mentioned previously, I am not averse to disclosing the proximity of American carriers for certain beneficial strategic reasons. Not sure this is a good plan yet, but I'm thinking about it.
Oz: Reinforcement TFs have stacked up around NZ and the south map edge awaiting the all-clear to head to Oz. Each is now positioning itself for the run to Melbourne or Adelaide. Given the date, and the lack of Japanese resources to commit to Oz in a major way at this point, I think these troops will go a long way to securing Oz and allowing the Allies to fight forward a bit. IE, I won't surrender Perth unless John brings overwhelming force.
DEI: Singers fell. I had predicted she'd fall in the first two weeks, so this is no surprise, yet it was a surprise because it was on the first attack in a month. I had no supply, but I did have 100% prep. Was it worth it replacing Percival? I don't think so. In the end, the lack of supply was absolutely decisive.
Luzon: With Singers in hand, John will focus on Clark. The remaining supply there (10k) will vanish in a week or two. Clark should fall by the end of the month or so.
India: Quiet. Things look very good.
China: MLR intact. A few Chinese units are involved in small offensive operations to strike at exposed or weak IJA positions.
Pending final adjustments to the tally for JEB John's ride around the Union Army, here's my analsyis of what happened:
Tactical: John wins a decisve victory, knocking out 50+ Allied ships. 75% of these are small fry, but even then the "weight of metal" was significant. The likely loss of New Orleans and Exeter are the most important. On the other side, I think John lost CA Suzuya. If PoW gets away, I'll feel pretty good about things as a whole.
Operational: While John drafted and implemented a complex and successful plan, overall this was a failure from his standpoint. It was a frivolous use his strategic forces. He should have had more important uses to give the KB. Finally, the array of Allied reinforcements inbound to Oz - many of which came close to being in harm's way - are untouched and should make it to Australia shortly.
Strategic: [8|]
JEB is going to complete his circuit around the Yankee army, but his long-term prospects don't seem very favorable.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
John's use of KB reminds me of some of JEB Stuart's forays. A shame he caught up with the good stuff, but he is taking on big risks for at best low medium rewards.
By all means go for the Shokaku group intercept if he heads north. An exchange battle in 42 is a win for the Allies.
A look at my first AAR and I might contend that this is on the scale of "high risks-low rewards. Ok the KB can sink a 50 - 100 ships or so in Oz [Yes I managed to enable the IJ to do this as a AFB in my first game of any sort. [8D]] Guess what? The IJ lacked any plan what to do next .. the follow on for the reason for the OZ raids as stated by my opponent .... invading Oz ... turned into a disaster for the IJ because I met the IJA with USA armor units that would not have anything meaningful to do until 1943 ...in 1942 .. The drain on supporting this foray will further distract the IJ until .. well in my game I broke out in Burma .. CR can find the weak point and exploit it ..
This is not scenario#1 I realize .. but this is not #2 or "Hitler/Speer becomes the emperor/ministry of industry" either ...[;)]
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
P.S. There is also the sexy chance that I can move my carrier SBDs to Perth and Geraldton, so that when the "Too Good to be True" branch of the KB arrives to finish of New Orleans, she'll find an ambush. That's assuming NO survives to tempt the Too Good to be True carriers, which is highly questionable.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Where are and in what degree of trained up are your A-24 Banshees?? They can be a good surprise "if" they can get through his CAP. They need some training to get their NavB up to actually hit a CV. I tend to exchange a lot of the older airframes for the P-38E stuck in permanently restricted airgroups in the USA.
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Today had all kinds of bumps and bruises and unkindnesses, and yet it really was a good day for the Allies. Am I just putting lipstick on a pig?
Because your fans were denied a carrier battle .....
Attachments
lipstickpig.jpg (46.73 KiB) Viewed 4133 times
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
NGGiants, I'm working on setting this up. If the the trailing branch of the KB comes close to Perth, this has a reasonable chance of success.
Perth is a level four airfield with 50 av support; Geraldton is a two with 31 av support; Albany is a one with enough AV support to allow patrols to operate.
I will have at least three fighter squadrons available - two P40E and one Kittyhawk. I will have the USAAF Banshees available. I will probably bring in reinforcements from the carriers - they are carrying some VMF and Vindictator squadrons that might not "tip my hand." So the Allies might end up with 75 fighters and 50+ dive bombers.
Almost certainly this is another "Too Good to be True" scenario, but I'll configure it just in case.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
The Banshee squadron pilots mostly have experience of 38 with naval bombing skills of 35 to 40. While this is much better than the B-26s currently working at Perth, it's still not good. The pilots having been training since they arrived on map, but I neglected to upgrade the squadron leaders. [:-]
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
The Banshee squadron pilots mostly have experience of 38 with naval bombing skills of 35 to 40. While this is much better than the B-26s currently working at Perth, it's still not good. The pilots having been training since they arrived on map, but I neglected to upgrade the squadron leaders. [:-]
What's the withdrawl on the Banshees? I think two units go away in March and one stays, right?
[/center]
