Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[PaxMondo]

Very dicey.  You'll need to hit with bombers first as best you can to improve your odds. 
 
'43 Indian units aren't early '42 anymore when they are just VP's to be harvested for the IJ.  They will have decent morale and should be ~50 exp by now.

[ny59giants]

BA by 17th Army gives us more hope than we expected. There are a lot of AA units present, which inflates the LCU count. The main defenders consist of 9th Aussie Div, an Indian division and 267th Armoured Brigade. Raw AS is 2601:1109 in our favor.

Hmmm. We know that raw AS no longer tells the whole story as we get into 1943, and with Allied air superiority over this portion of the front (at least until we take more bases), we can't afford a long siege. We will probably try a DA. Does the readership think we can take Chittagong with these odds? If it falls, strategic victory is in our grasp, but Cribtop HQ is still worried about our chances.

The '43 Indian infantry squads started to come on line this month, but will take about 2 to 3 months of stockpiling before he can rotate a division divided into combat commands to get them. The armored brigade should have General Lee tanks, so that is a no win for you. I would expect him to be behind level 6 forts. If you didn't have Southern Command HQ prepped and within range to give that extra bonus, you probably don't have a chance. You may need to risk some CAs and BBs to bombard the base and significantly increase the disruption of the troops the day of the attack.

[witpqs]

Be wary of just the production tally for '43 Indian squads. They get some in supply convoys and some some units arrive with them. If your opponent is one who likes to work with disbanding units to put squads in the pool, the might get some big units upgraded faster than predicted.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: temagic

Thank you for keeping this AAR alive, Cribtop. It's such a good read.

Thanks to you and all those who read and comment. It's been a blast - let's hope it continues to be fun for all involved. [&o]

[Cribtop]

February 14, 1943

A very quiet day with one VERY critical development...

Subs

Haddo duds on a DD in a convoy north of Truk.

SE Fleet and Southern Army

Between these AOs, an Air HQ, 2 big base forces and 12 air support units arrive from Japan. They will soon board ships to fill out first and second line bases. This slug of reinforcements adds much-needed air support points to the perimeter, particularly in the DEI.

Burma

Thunderstorms keep the IJAAF at home despite orders for a max effort over Chittagong. This is a good thing as I'm sure CF had the whole Allied air force committed as well, and his bombers carry bigger bombs.

I had no idea what to really expect, but ordered a DA. Many thanks to those who quietly urged me to do so. The result, I think, is very positive.

We obtain a solid 1:1 odds attack and drop forts to 3. Casualties are 1180(19) for the Allies versus 2458(26) for Japan. No IJA units are suffering from excessive disablements or from high disruption. The only modifiers listed were forts(+) and experience (-) for the Allies. I really like to see that EXP(-).

Cribtop HQ's takeaway from this outcome is that the base will fall unless the Allied air force can wreck our units before we can get in a few more attacks. The implications of the fall of Chittagong, if it occurs, are mind-boggling in a good way for Japan.

What do y'all think? Dare I say that we could go on to cut off the massive Commonwealth army in Burma just as the Monsoon starts? I am trying to keep the following thought at bay, but it keeps coming up: "Japan could win the war..."

Am I nuts to think this? Assuming CF is out of mobile reserves in India, and further assuming we can use the IJN and IJNAF to prevent wholesale US Army and Marine reinforcement of this front, we might be on the cusp of achieving a strategic breakthrough.

Comments to this development very welcome.

[Cribtop]

Another comment - the missing Enterprise was bugging Cribtop Intel, so we did some digging.

First, Ent is still listed on the sunk report from the battle of the Torres Islands in October 1942. Now we are four months out and she's still listed. Interesting.

I reviewed the combat report from the battle, and Enterprise suffered three bomb hits, heavy fires and an ammo storage explosion. We believe she was spotted limping near Noumea by a Glen a few days later.

Add it up and we assumed she's still afloat, but after this long and still on the sunk list, there is a better chance than we thought that she went down. But, could she really be so badly damaged that she was left out at Exmouth? Yeah, it's very possible with transit times to and from Oz, but still intriguing.

[Crackaces]

At some distict point in time I suspect your opponent is going to realize the gravity of the situaiton and transfer US assests into this theater. On the 14th of May 1943 transfer of assests into this theater will take a remarkable turn. Simply stuff on the East Coast will appear in theater taking about 162 hexes/ 27 days to transfer besides the short trip from Aden to Karachi ... If you continue to expand and not think of a defense line .. all this glory is going to go down in flames .. [8D]

You have to start thinking of what line you plan to defend or put it all into auto-victory ...

[obvert]

While your position seems very strong in India with this attack looking promising, Crackaces point is right on. If he starts to panic plans in the Pacific will be put on hold (and might be anyway since the US Navy is out of the invasion business for a good while). This is the natural place to look to take advantage of the other Allied strengths; lots of strong land units, much better armor, arty and AA, plus the 4Es which will render anything in the clear useless.

I'd say get through Chittagong, try to push them around a bit and get the Burmese front cut off. Go nail those troops and then set up defensively. I hope you brought some good AA with you! [;)]

[Crackaces]

If he starts to panic plans in the Pacific ...

He does not have to Panic he just only has to see the comittment and the gravity of the situaiion and make the comitment to trap the IJA [;)] With stacking limits It takes only 3 Divsions either US or upgraded Aussie's with 3 -4 US armored units .. I have posted pretty pictures of IJ in a futile effort trying to defend their stacked spearheads after their LOC's have been cut to pieces by 4E's, paratroopers, and advancing Commonwealth and US forces ... I estimate that Cribtop has 60 . maybe 90 days to establish a line and dig in ...

Then again there is the strategy of maintainng offensive intiative until Mar 1944 [8D] [a la Greyjoy vs.Radier ]

[Cribtop]

Good points all. It may seem I am feeling some serious victory disease, but what is really occurring in my noodle is consideration of what happens after Whirlwind. Thus, step one is take Chittagong, step two cut off the Allies in Burma (in and of itself a valuable achievement), and only then will we encounter step three - what's next.

I am at least going to run the numbers on what I'd need to take to push his VPs down to 8000. I figure if I pull that off I'd hit 4:1 somewhere along the way given the "I gain, you lose" nature of big VP bases. I may VERY quickly conclude it's a fool's errand - I frankly have no idea where the VP treasures are in India. I'm under no illusion we can walk to Karachi or even Bombay or Delhi. But Calcutta and Madras may be takeable. Inherent to any such plan is the danger Crackaces is pointing at - it's an all or nothing move.

Another option would be to cut off the Allies, march into Burma from Assam, and destroy many enemy LCUs while extricating 17th Army. How many VPs would THAT be worth?

Finally, we can't lose sight of the very real possibility of a 3:1 victory in early '44 or a "run out the clock" victory as Alfred has pointed out. Either of these would certainly count as victory in my book.

So, I won't take leave of my senses, I promise, but things have progressed to the point where I should at least consider the possible upside scenarios.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Another option would be to cut off the Allies, march into Burma from Assam, and destroy many enemy LCUs while extricating 17th Army. How many VPs would THAT be worth?

Finally, we can't lose sight of the very real possibility of a 3:1 victory in early '44 or a "run out the clock" victory as Alfred has pointed out. Either of these would certainly count as victory in my book.

So, I won't take leave of my senses, I promise, but things have progressed to the point where I should at least consider the possible upside scenarios.

This would certainly put a crimp in his land war into Burma as well as netting a bunch of VPs. With British replacement rates you might buy an extra year. Your troops would have a good long time to set up well fortified defensive lines, and maybe you can get some of that oil back from India as well.

In addition, after recent naval battles, this would be pretty demoralizing for the Allies.

[Mike Solli]

I'm all for cutting off and destroying LCUs. The time to rebuild just a portion of them would be greatly worth it, IMO. Also, those rebuilt units would have pretty shabby experience.

[ny59giants]

Agree with with the other "Mike" about destroying LCUs, the bigger the better. Force CF to make decisions about how to use his limited British and CW troops and their devices. The Indian infantry squads will be the least of his concerns, but he will not be able to rebuild and then have a high tempo of offensive operations as he doesn't have enough squads. Certain devices like the 25 pound gun is one piece of FA that is in short supply at this point and is a lot more effective than the 18 pounder. A rebuilt division will have around 40 experience levels. Destroying troops will slow the Allies down more than taking territory, IMO.

[Cribtop]

Good advice. I looked at the high value bases in India, and while I can see a path to capture about 1,750 VPs if we break through, the catch is that the values of these bases to the Allies are surprisingly low. Thus, the "swing" will be closer to 2,000 VP, plus any troops losses. Not enough to drive down the denominator of the equation.

Thus, we go on with Whirlwind as originally intended. If we break through at Chittagong we cut off the Commonwealth forces in Burma and try for an LCU destroying battle. If we can't break through, we retreat to CB, then seize Akyab and threaten the flank of the Allies in the Burma basin

[witpqs]

I have a PBM game just a little beyond yours. As the Allies, I am currently pushing into Burma. I can tell you that I am VERY aware of the danger of those troops being cut-off and destroyed or rendered ineffective. Obviously I do not know what CF has done to guard against that, but if you can do it, then do it!

[PaxMondo]

Watching to see what you do and how it turns out.

Banzai!

[adm]

First Cuttlefish wanders off, and now Cribtop. [X(]

[Cribtop]

Sorry, folks! Work was rough and we had a close family friend pass away, but the game continues. I owe you four or five days of updates and should get them up shortly. Not a whole lot going on except for ongoing land battles at Chittagong and Kweiyang.

[adm]

No worries, I just thought it sounded better than "bump". Condolences for your friend.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, adm. It was expected, but still a bummer. Thanks for the bump!