The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Pacific:  Quiet.  SigInt of an IJ division (24th) prepping for Palmerton North.  Right.  If you want credible misinformation, prep for somewhere where the prep is needed - like Auckland.  Palmerton North?  Two Boy Scouts and a billy goat could take it with minus 38% prep.

But what if he wanted to land there after the amphibious bonus were over? He would still want to be at 50% prep. Also, who does misinformation with a whole division. I suppose if it were jsut sitting idle in Osaka or something...but otherwise.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/42
 
Depending on the timing and the relative strength of the two armies, a Japanese landing at Esperance threatens the entire Allied position at Perth.  If the Allies are comparatively strong and set to fight, then it's a bad move for Japan.  But if Japan is comparatively strong - as is generally the case in early '42 - the Allies might have to pull out quick to avoid being cut off.  That means Japan either bottles up an Allied army or gets Perth on the cheap. So Esperance can be a great move by Japan.

Battle of the SW Cape:  John sees my Wildcats, which handle a modest sweep by Zeroes (getting a 2:1 advantage, but it wasn't a big battle).  He knows these are the marines or US Navy, so he'll make reasonable deductions.  I'm feeding in another 27-plan squadron to up the ante a bit.  A DD sprinting back to Perth to eventually serve as escort to New Orleans is intercepted and sunk by a CL/DD force out in the middle of nowhere.  NO can make 22 knots, so I might just send her sprinting now, before the KB comes back.  She might run afowl of a sub or combat TF, but the odds aren't going to improve with time.  Two US Army RCT and a tank battalion will reach the Perth vicinity in a couple of days.

India:  Quiet.  Port Blair unmolested for the most part.

China:  In a backwater dot hex west (true) of Chengte, the Chinese get 1:1 odds in an attack on a remote and small Japanese army.  The Chinese will try again tomorrow and will also renew the attack at Chengte.  These two little battles are important because, if won, the Chinese can draw off two good corps to reinforce the Changsha to Liuchow front.  I think the Allies will win both.

Pacific:  Quiet.  The Allies will move four USAAF and marine fighter squadrons from Pearl to Oz.  A transport TF carrying two good base forces is en route from LA to Oz and will reach Tahiti tonight.

[Crackaces]

I have some very limited experiece in this game, but as an AFB everytime I have brought in Allied armor .. especially USA armor into a fight in the deserts of Oz ,, it has not turned out well for the IJA .. I fought my battles in the exterme North/Northwest of Oz where Alice Springs all the way up had to be built up to move supplies forward ... I would suspect that fighting along a main rail line full of supplies is going to benifit the Allies further. The only disadvantage I see is the ability for the IJA to secure bases that are 20 hexes away from the nearest threat.

I could see a short term benifit but like Nappy at Moscow in December .. Nappy got Moscow but how did that complete the strategic picture? I think an invasion anywhere where Allied armor has a distict advantage cannot in the long run be advantagious. Maybe I am missing something?

[Saros]

Revealing your carrier fighters will probably encourage him to be honest. He has got too be looking for a significant naval success to make up for his lack of progress on land.

Have you got any ground reserves in Oz? I think you said you had an AU militia division is strategic mode as a mobile reserve but I cant recall exactly. Crackaces is correct about allied Armor but you have to maintain air superiority because Armor in the open is horrifically vulnerable to air strikes. Even 1-2 days of moderate bombing will render an isolated unit combat ineffective. I recently had a IJAAF Coy left behind at Katherine (one of the ones with 4 SNLF squads and 8 aviation support) fight off an entire motorised brigade after two days of bombing by 50-60 aircraft. My opponent was not impressed.

[Canoerebel]

4/2/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  John stands down his fighters and begins recon of Geraldton, Perth and one other base.  If he wants this region, he'll bring in more air and capital ships for bombardment.  I need about seven to ten days to get my land and air reinforcements.  Until then, I'll use my carrier air to try to keep John honest.  Once I have my defenses fully in place, I'll probably retire the carrier air to their ships and move the carriers elsewhere.  I'm not positive John was coming for Perth, but this appeared far more likely than any other significant land mass (other than Port Blair, which I do deem significant).  Lots of reinforcement transports are line up between just out of Melbourne to the corner of the game name box (which is only five days or so out of Melbourne).

India:  Two more IJN BBs bombard Port Blair.  The Kalemyo to Ledo defense line is pretty much set now.  The Allies have 130 AV (very poor quality) at Akyab.  Japan can take that base, but won't have that window much longer, what with Chittagong growing rapidly and many Allied fighter squadrons in India.

China:  The Chinese attack at Chengte almost achieves a 2:1.  My troops will rest until they draw more supply and then try again. The attack to the west, in the mountains, also fails, though it continues to look promising long term.

Pacific:  Quiet.

[ny59giants]

I lost all of Australia north of the LOD, which actually was triggered, but we made a HR to work around it. I am well dug in bases to the south and have enough supplies. However, the loss of the greater Perth area hurts the Allies ability to make any threat into the critically important SRA area, IMO. The only way I can do anything here is by a counter invasion with CVs. I now look at the Perth area as something a Japanese player should strongly consider capturing. I view it the way Nemo taught me, some bases are more important to deny the enemy than something that really is important to you. Its like Port Moresby, the Japanese need to deny the use to the Allies more than something of strategic value to Japan.

[Canoerebel]

I agree, NYGiants.  While I don't consider Perth vital to my interests in '42 - losing it does not threaten my overall wellbeing - it is an area worth fighting for if I can do so under reasonable conditions.  Keeping the area offers quite a few long-term advantages.

[Canoerebel]

Speaking of work-arounds, that reminds me of my late, lamented game against the estimable Q-Ball.  Some of you will recall that the game was very taut as he was engaged in a fullscale invasion of India.  In the midst of the tumult, he became distracted by War in the East.  Suddenly, he had little time for our game of AE....and forgot that, as a feint, he had created a small invasion TF and set its objective for Waikkiki (or whatever the name of the base at New Zealand's northern tip is).  I had no idea this was coming until the troops began landing, which triggered the LOD reinforcements.  Q-Ball was dismayed.  So we replayed the turn, which I felt was awfully kind of me and which I hoped would get him to re-engage in the game...but he never did.

[ny59giants]

Nick thought he had to capture a base south of the LOD when it is actually just moving LCU south of it. He had a tank unit move south for a few days before going back above, so he was unaware of it till weeks later.

[Cribtop]

I concur with Michael. In several games I have considered taking Perth to deny and delay an Allied advance into the Eastern DEI, especially after Q-Ball's game with Cuttlefish popularized the Darwin-Timor axis of advance. There are more valuable things for Japan to take, but Perth is nothing to sneeze at.

[Canoerebel]

4/3/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  Quiet again.  No Japanese sorties.  New Orleans flees Perth and is halfway to Esperance with no signs of detection.  It would be a balm to my psyche to get her out of harm's way.  More IJ recon of the various cape bases.
 
China:  A solo, stranded, poorly supplied IJ infantry division encrooaching on my MLR near Kweilin tries a deliberate attack that comes off at 1:7.  The Chinese will counterattack tomorrow.  The Chinese will also attack at a hex NE (true) of Changsha, N of Chengte, and in the remote mountain area NE of Chungking.  It's unlikely that any of these attacks will succeed, but I'm fairly optimistic all will show promise for eventual good results.

[Capt. Harlock]

New Orleans flees Perth and is halfway to Esperance with no signs of detection.  It would be a balm to my psyche to get her out of harm's way. 

A very reasonable way to think, since New Orleans is superior to any of the cruisers that you lost. (I have a fondness for that class, since they were the only decently armored 8-inch cruisers built within treaty limitations.)

[Canoerebel]

4/4/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  At least one Japanese carrier TF is west of Carnavon.  I don't think John will employ carriers in this region unless he feels he has enough to handle whatever he surmises I have present.  So, I think he either brings most of them (if he has plans in this region - plans to invade or plans to seek and destroy my ships) or else sends them elsewhere to do his bidding in a region I've left vacant.  We'll see.

Saga of the New Orleans:  Ah, the vagaries of war.  After the sharp battle in which New Orleans and Exeter took heavy damage and Prince of Wales light damage, I separated the ships into separate TFs and ordered each to flee towards the northwest and relative safety.  New Orleans somehow went exactly the wrong way - back towards Perth and the concentration of enemy carriers.  So I wrote her off as lost.  I had essentially no hope for Exeter and high hopes for Prince of Wales.  So, what happens?  New Orleans is the only one still afloat!  She's one hex from Esperance, where she'll hook up with anti-sub escorts for the cruise to Melbourne.  She's not safe yet, but she's a heckuva lot safer than she was two days ago.  She'll become one of the heroes of the early war - a symble that all free and good people shall rally around.

DEI:  Batavia is still in Allied hands.  Dutch patrols are still flying from that base and from Manado.  I haven't gotten any thrilling ship info - just lots of miscellaneous stuff - but still.

India:  Still awaiting something at Port Blair.  John is actively reconning the Imphal to Ledo line.  I'm not sure why at this late date.  Perhaps he's looking to see if I'm gathering an offensive force.

China:  Four Chinese attacks, three of which result in 1:1 odds.  None succeed, but all still hold promise, though John is beginning efforts to reinforce.  Most importantly, the MLR remains intact.

[Canoerebel]

I've addressed before John's highly irritating habit of disclosing in his email what happened in the turn I'm about to play.  I've asked him dozens of times over our two games to stop.  He promised last week to do so...and then broke that promise twice.  It would be interesting to get a psychologist's evaluation of his behavior.  I've never seen anything like it.  With the new turn today, he wrote: "Those trees in China work both ways I guess...", which told me that my attacks in China had failed. So, I wrote him back, "I knew I had four attacks in China, so I was looking forward to seeing how things unplayed. Instead, your comment told me beforehand. You gave your word a week ago not to comment on a turn, and you've only commented twice since then. Seriously, can you stop this?"

[princep01]

Hummmm, that is most annoying.  But, since some people have a tough time taking even a strong hint, it is good that you stated your objection to e-mail revelation of the battle turn clearly and emphatically in your last response. 
 
As to John's future intentions re the game, I have no special knowledge, but it is pretty clear some signifcant portion of Oz is in his sights for the near term.  I would be shocked if he turned up with a major, focused effort on New Caledonia, in the Aleutains, Hawaii or even in Assam (outside of Pt Blair).
 
Although he must know you have CV air operating out of land bases at this point, you still might get a shot at those raiders.  Good luck!
 
 

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've addressed before John's highly irritating habit of disclosing in his email what happened in the turn I'm about to play.  I've asked him dozens of times over our two games to stop.  He promised last week to do so...and then broke that promise twice.  It would be interesting to get a psychologist's evaluation of his behavior.  I've never seen anything like it.  With the new turn today, he wrote: "Those trees in China work both ways I guess...", which told me that my attacks in China had failed. So, I wrote him back, "I knew I had four attacks in China, so I was looking forward to seeing how things unplayed. Instead, your comment told me beforehand. You gave your word a week ago not to comment on a turn, and you've only commented twice since then. Seriously, can you stop this?"

As the game progressed my lastest opponent would include a complaint about the game in every email and a suggested "home rule". Despite my expression of displeasure this continued. So .. I stopped reading the emails. I open, right click to save the file, and proceed forthwith with my turn ... [8D] My emails in reply would be "End of Turn XXX {Date}".

After a while my opponent got the message that I was no longer listening to his banter ...

However, John's extrovertism is giving you clues to top of mind frustations. Real psyop's intel if you so choose to use it .. otherwise the above works over time .. [8D]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've addressed before John's highly irritating habit of disclosing in his email what happened in the turn I'm about to play.  I've asked him dozens of times over our two games to stop.  He promised last week to do so...and then broke that promise twice.  It would be interesting to get a psychologist's evaluation of his behavior.  I've never seen anything like it.  With the new turn today, he wrote: "Those trees in China work both ways I guess...", which told me that my attacks in China had failed. So, I wrote him back, "I knew I had four attacks in China, so I was looking forward to seeing how things unplayed. Instead, your comment told me beforehand. You gave your word a week ago not to comment on a turn, and you've only commented twice since then. Seriously, can you stop this?"

[:D][:D][:D]

Been there, done that. [:D]

If you are otherwise enjoying the game why not just carefully pull up the email and right click on the file as Crackaces suggests? Also, as Crackaces suggests, there is absolutely valuable intel in the character of the emails. The volume and bravado of the banter is a vritual predictor of a major operation to come. Whatever geographic area is NOT mentioned is where the attack will be.

It's like free waterboarding. [:)]

[Crackaces]

Four Chinese attacks, three of which result in 1:1 odds. None succeed, but all still hold promise, though John is beginning efforts to reinforce. Most importantly, the MLR remains intact

I know you know thiw CR, but for disucssion purposes ... AV only says whether stuff retreats .. firepower dictates the casulties .. I had a 1:13 battle in China that consisted of US armor & Commonwealth/Chineese Infantry (34,300 stacking points 1200 raw AV ) vs. oversstacked, unsupplied, poorly led, low morale but in fort level 6 urban IJA forces, and exchanged 960 men for 1700 IJA ...A very low adjusted AV that was not going to move anybody for awhile but .. I got the upper hand on the attrtion game for at least that turn ...

BTW) Your previous statement about John and his trees quote is very telling that he might not understand this concept as it applies in this situation ....

[witpqs]

It would be interesting to get a psychologist's evaluation of his behavior. 

He's stark, raving mad!

Oh wait, I'm not a psychologist.

[Crackaces]

If you are otherwise enjoying the game why not just carefully pull up the email and right click on the file as Crackaces suggests? Also, as Crackaces suggests, there is absolutely valuable intel in the character of the emails. The volume and bravado of the banter is a vritual predictor of a major operation to come. Whatever geographic area is NOT mentioned is where the attack will be.

It's like free waterboarding

I played poker at one time for serious stakes [Before the go all in era of today] .. I write with the background and experience

I do not have the combat results .. but my first take on John's remarks is that he is frustrated that he cannot move the Chineese out of the woods because of stacking limits/AV and feel vindicated that the Chineese cannot do likewise. It also provides some clues to where he might focus a thrust. A line where stacking limits is better and the IJ to Chineese ratio is more in favor given those limits .... (It is not linear)

I read Nemo vs. John playing Gettysburg and that is the most telling AAR of his psyche of any writing I know of ... John is absoutely over confident believing his plan cannot fail and that Nemo's moves plays right into his hands .. right up to the point that Nemo hands him his head .. of course it is the game that allowed such a defeat to occur not John's strategy.

I might assess that John is playing this game as a goal to win, to demonstrate his mental superiority against a well-esteemed opponent. He is excuting his plan and tends not to go to the second or third level [what is he thinking that I am thinking that he is thinking ] ... I sense a simple first level "what is he thinking" will anticipate John's next moves ... Of course most of the time I am thinking of John's moves at the level WHAT IS HE THINKING !!!????!!!! [:D]

Just my 0.02