The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

John probably had a reasonable expectation that he could flat overwhelm my aircraft at Perth, perhaps crippling my carrier air arm, while also finishing off New Orleans. A low risk operation with a chance of pretty good return.

The fact that it backfired so badly will shake John badly. Not for long, but for a short time. The loss of aircraft is also a short term proposition. But short term is important at the moment, because my position in Oz will increased significantly in the short term due to reinforcements coming in.

This was a major tactical setback for John, but it could have considerably great ramifications.

I'll keep my carrier air in Oz for at least another week (and perhaps much longer depending on what's going on). I have a number of important operations that require carrier support, so I'm weighing these options for three or four weeks down the road: (1) move to NoPac to provide critical support to get supply and reinforcements to Akutan and Cold Bay (this is much more important than it would seem, because John is clearly concerned up here and I can feed that concern); (2) support an operation to resupply and reinforce Port Blair (a good use, but it gets my carriers off to a corner where they're a long way from other theaters; (3) support an invasion of Cocos Island (unlikely to pull this right now, but I'll look at it); and (4) allow my carriers to vanish to creat the usual force-in-being concerns.

[Canoerebel]

4/6/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  A series of Zero sweeps - not sure whether this is LBA or carrier air - against Perth are ineffective.  The Allies win the day, 2:1 (though losses on both sides are relatively light).  More base force personnel and engineers have arrived at Perth. Two Aussie CD units completed the transfer from Geraldton to Esperance (joining 27th/C Div. there) to protect the southern flank.  New Orleans is well to the east of Esperance now.  The Japanese carriers are close to Carnavon.  No IJN bombardment of Perth today.  Every day that there isn't one is important as more reinforcements are on the way to the region.
 
India:  Port Blair is quiet.  Hornet arrives at Capetown and will team up with Indomitable and Formidable in Indian waters.  Diego airfield is about to go to level four.  I can probably base the carriers here, relying on LB fighters and picket ships to prevent surprise.  The Allies are in early tentive planning to reinforce Port Blair.  Very early.  Troops are prepped for Cocos, but I won't spring this while enemy carriers are in (or close to) theater.
 
China:  I have a potential problem in the base between Changsha and Hengyang.  It's lightly garrisoned and now two IJ units are across the river.  More shifting of troops around, but the question is whether I have the two or three days needed. 
 
NoPac:  Mutsu, Nagato and Yamato are all up here.  I need my carriers in order to ram home suppies and reinforcements (and possibly spring an ambush), but this is relatively low priority at the moment.
 
SoPac:  A variety of American and Kiwi troops are prepping for Ndeni and Tulagi to be available should the opportunity arise.

[Houtje]

First of all, congrats on the Great Perth Turkey Shoot. Second, a question for you and other WITPAE-veterans: do such lopsided results occur often? Was John unlucky in his rolls, or did he push the boat out too far? I know one can do lot of things wrong in setting up air missions (wrong altitude, bad leaders etc.), but I would expect John to get all the basic stuff right, right?

[Canoerebel]

Results this lopsided are fairly rare, especially early in the game in favor of the Allies.  I think this was mainly unlucky die rolls coupled with the fact that all the American fighters had very good pilots.

[Canoerebel]

4/7/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  The KB is retiring north along the Australia west coast.  No IJ sweeps.  John continues to actively recon many of the SW Oz bases.  I don't know yet if he still plans to come.  He's probably at least considering other plans, like possibly shifting to NE Oz.  When Americal arrives at Melbourne beginning in a day or two, I may hold these regiments there pending developments. 
 
India:  Nothing happening. A small Brit unit is going to take vacant Toungoo tomorrow, which disrupts John's supply line to upper Burma.
 
China:  No attack today at the key hex between Changsha and Hengyang today, but I'm worried about tomorrow.  The Chinese will be trying more probing attacks, including one at Kweilin, where the Chinese outnumber the Japanese 3:1.
 
Pacific:  Quiet except for the myriad Allied TFs shuttling supplies and reinforcements hither and yon.  Lots of Allied troops at Seattle nearly fully prepped for a variety of Aleutians bases, including Adak and Umnak.  When and if I head that was is not yet even guessed at. 

[Canoerebel]

From John, 9:58 a.m., Sunday, February 17:  "Fine.  I will not communicate regarding the turns whatsoever."
 
From John, 1:56 a.m, Tuesday, February 19:  "Looks like we’re reshuffling the deck for the big draw in 5 Card Poker within China."
 
He was able to keep his word nearly 40 hours!
 
 

[FOW]

ORIGINAL: Houtje

First of all, congrats on the Great Perth Turkey Shoot. Second, a question for you and other WITPAE-veterans: do such lopsided results occur often? Was John unlucky in his rolls, or did he push the boat out too far? I know one can do lot of things wrong in setting up air missions (wrong altitude, bad leaders etc.), but I would expect John to get all the basic stuff right, right?

There are many variables, but the one that comes up often is weather, especially in the a.m. phase. If the morning missions were scrubbed and only the afternoon ones went in, that could be a major factor.
I read john's AAR so won't comment on the other variables (bases, squadron orders etc).

[Canoerebel]

4/8/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  Another quiet turn.  Patrols report at least one carrier TF at Port Headland.  At this point, the Allies look sure to get all reinforcements safely into Melbourne (needing but three more days).  Thereafter, I can begin to transition over to long term defense plans for Oz.  Part of that will be the decision whether to keep the carriers in place or to move them out.  Mainly, I just want to keep them away from the enemy carriers.  If I can also get them to a place far away from his, when they next show up, all the better (as I have prepositioned troops ready to go in a variety of places, just waiting for an all clear plus carrier support to proceed).

India:  Quiet except for enemy recon of the Chittagong to Akyab sector.  The Allies have units at each base and reinforcements en route.  With good airfields at Calcutta and Chittagong, I will fight hard to prevent an enemy move here (and I think that Port Blair serves as an effective buffer giving me additional time to work on my defenses).  The Allies reclaimed Tongoo, temporarily severing the enemy LOC to upper Burma.

China:  The Chinese will likely lose an "inner" base - the one two hexes west (true) of Changsha.  This will create some problems, but shouldn't be catastrophic.  The base I was really worried about (the one between Changsha and Hengyang may be okay.  I'm continuing in my efforts to work around the advance enemy units to isolate and sever LOCs.

Pacific:  Quiet.  32nd Div. arrives at West Coast within a month.  The big question is what to do with her.  If she's not needed to reinforce Oz, likely prep targets might be Umnak, Adak, Tarawa, Lunga, or Tulagi.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've addressed before John's highly irritating habit of disclosing in his email what happened in the turn I'm about to play.  I've asked him dozens of times over our two games to stop.  He promised last week to do so...and then broke that promise twice.  It would be interesting to get a psychologist's evaluation of his behavior.  I've never seen anything like it.  With the new turn today, he wrote: "Those trees in China work both ways I guess...", which told me that my attacks in China had failed. So, I wrote him back, "I knew I had four attacks in China, so I was looking forward to seeing how things unplayed. Instead, your comment told me beforehand. You gave your word a week ago not to comment on a turn, and you've only commented twice since then. Seriously, can you stop this?"

[:D][:D][:D]

Been there, done that. [:D]

If you are otherwise enjoying the game why not just carefully pull up the email and right click on the file as Crackaces suggests? Also, as Crackaces suggests, there is absolutely valuable intel in the character of the emails. The volume and bravado of the banter is a vritual predictor of a major operation to come. Whatever geographic area is NOT mentioned is where the attack will be.

It's like free waterboarding. [:)]

Yep, just play the replay then read the email...Annoying but not the end of the world.


Opps! CR, just read your follow on post about why you have to read the email. I just don't think John can change his spots on this one. You seem to be enjoying the game so I would just advise that you accept it.

As for John's port attack. I have always admired his aggressive play but it also has gotten him into trouble. If the one set rule for the Allies is not to squander carriers in 1942, I would think that the my one hard rule for the Japanese is not to waste KB pilots on port attacks. The purpose of KB in 42 is to find and defeat the Allied carriers. The core of excellent Naval pilots needs to be conserved for this purpose alone. Good job...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

As for John's port attack. I have always admired his aggressive play but it also has gotten him into trouble. If the one set rule for the Allies is not to squander carriers in 1942, I would think that the my one hard rule for the Japanese is not to waste KB pilots on port attacks. The purpose of KB in 42 is to find and defeat the Allied carriers. The core of excellent Naval pilots needs to be conserved for this purpose alone. Good job...

I would differ on this a bit. I think port attacks can net a good haul of ships for little loss of planes if properly prepared. He was just a bit impatient here. If he knew what was there, then there is no excuse for attacking with the KB pilots into that. If he didn't know, then he should have done more work to find out and reduce what was at Perth.

I certainly have been guilty of aimless raids on enemy shipping that depleted my KB pilots, and I wouldn't likely do as much of that now (although that has never really hurt the KB's effectiveness in spite of losses. All new CVs have the 70-80 exp pilots on them as well). At the same time, he's netted the P of W and a good amount of other shipping until now, and if this had some follow on strategic development toward an invasion it might be considered a worthy use of the KB. This just turns a positive into a negative in one turn due to impatience and CR's forethought of how he might use John's aggression to his benefit.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/42
 
Australia:  No further enemy action.  Some CVs still reported at Port Headland.  I-1 is snooping around Sydney.  The first of the two big troop transport TFs just arrived at Melbourne, with No. 2 a couple of days back.  The situation in Oz is stabalizing.
 
India:  SigInt that 33rd Div. is aboard marus bound for Port Blair.  Drat.  I was about three weeks shy of having the ability to intercede using Formidable, Indomitable and Hornet.
 
China:  The Japanese took that interior base.  I keep saying, "Everything's fine.  Everything's fine."  And I still think it is if I understand the LOC rules correctly.  I think John will reinforce via air transport and try to expand this bridgehead, but I don't think he can do so effectively or efficiently.  If I'm wrong, all bets are off.  But right now, I'm concentrating on keeping this little Japanese army cut off.  If I can do so, my MLR is intact.  If I fail to do so, I have problems.  I might have them anyway, because John has most of his airforce here blowing my units away.  Nevertheless, China still looks good to me and it is serving as an effective speed bump and diversion.
 
Pacific:  The usual logistics things going on, especially as I've been working to increase the flow of fuel from USA to Oz.  My subs are active, though they only shot duds for the last week or two.

[Cribtop]

Can we get a China front screen shot? Also, if it's not a visual mess, can you turn the hex side control filter on? Might help the peanut gallery evaluate the LoC situation to either confirm your gut that everything is ok (or hit the panic button if appropriate).

[Canoerebel]

4/10/42

China: You're wish is my command, Cribbie. Map posted below. The orange arrow shows the route traversed by the IJA division that took the base two hexes behind Changsha. I think that division is isolated (except by air) until John reopens an LOC. There are other problem areas for both sides. I need to open a hexside into Nanning (not critical yet, because my army is fairly strong). My major concern remains Siangtan and Hengyang. If John can bump through either hex, then I truly have a hole in my MLR. At the moment, though, and subject to my rolling up my sleeves and getting to work, I still feel good about China.

Oz: Quiet, with one CV TF showing at Port Headland. For all I know, the others could be headed through the Torres Strait to strike again around Sydney or Melbourne. I've configured my pickets and patrols, so hopefully no big surprises. Unloading continues at Melbourne. In about three days, my combat ships will depart, probably in company with my carriers, as the reinforcements will have all reached port. My carriers are SW of Tasmania, but I want to move them to a new theater until the situation clarifies. I've begun transferring the carrier fighter squadrons from Perth/Kalgoorlie back to Melbourne in preparation for the move back to the flattops. Several more reinforcement convoys en route from Tahiti to Melbourne, carrying some engineers, base forces, and a decent motorized brigade.

India: Waiting for the enemy at Port Blair, while also contemplating what John might do afterwards. A Brit brigade just reinforced Ceylon. I will throw everything into the defense of this island and the Chittagong region since I have so much air power in India now. John will take Port Blair, but everything thereafter is to be contested.

Pacific: Noumea finally has a base force to handle patrol aircraft, so that particular hole in the patrol screen has been closed.

[Cribtop]

You seem ok, having sealed the hole behind his move. I would take back the 3 o'clock and 9 o'clock hex sides if possible. This might be the rare opportunity to use the Chinese "bomber" force to close the airfield and kill his supply preparatory to a counter-attack. Although extensive use of your aircraft burns your own supply, too.

On the whole, I think your instincts are correct. I would make recapture of the base a goal, but it doesn't have to be a goal for tomorrow.

[BBfanboy]

After his heavy aircraft losses at Perth, he will have to move most of his CVs to a place with lots of supply [way over 20K] to replenish his airgroups. The temptation then would be to repair the system damage the carriers have accumulated too. I don't think the KB will be active for about 10 days from the Perth battle.

[Canoerebel]

4/11/42
 
Australia:  Everything remains quiet.  Still part of the KB up at Port Headland.  The second big transport TF has arrived at Melbourne and is partially unloaded.  The continent now has two American divisions plus one RCT and a tank unit.  The final piece to the puzzle, a decent motorized brigade, is aboard transports nearing Dunedin.
 
DEI:  Batavia is still in Allied hands.  Another IJ shock attack failed yesterday.  I had been certain it would succeed.
 
Luzon:  Clark Field is in Allied hands.  A few days back, John ruined one of his three divisions by having just that one attack. 
 
India:  Big invasion TF is one hex from Port Blair.  SigInt shows two divisions - 33rd and 5th.  John will be exited to get this island.  I am exited because an isolated base that has been without supply for more than two months is drawing the time and attention of two divisions.  Once John gets this base up and running, he's going to want to try to forward raiding of India and Ceylon, so I'm watching out for that.  A bigger question is whether he will try an invasion anywhere.  I'm pretty sure he's too late to do anything that would rattle my cage (he could take Ceylon, but that's not the end of the world).
 
China:  I'm going to learn something about AE:  is it possible for Japan to occupy and interior and isolated hex and use it offensively, as opposed to defensively?  The test depends on my ability to keep the base isolated - I think I can do this - occasional reinforcement troops might bust through that clear terrain hex and reinforce, but I can keep cutting off the LOC.  I think John may have more problems than I do, but perhaps I'm wrong.  I've shited B-17s to Chungking to hit the supply at the base.  John's airlifted in parts of three units.  I know he's exited, but I'm still not seeing it for him.
 
Pacific:  Still toying around with how to prep 32nd Div. when she arrives on map in a few weeks.  Another possibility is Milne Bay. 
 
Allied Carriers:  My most important decision right now is what to do with my carriers. I think I can afford to move them now, because John may have been scared away from SW Oz and, if not, my LBA might be sufficient to handle things.  I don't want my carrier operating where the Death Star Combined KB is operating, which means I have to figure out where John is most likely to go.  Trouble is, I can make persuasive arguments for just about anything at this early date (John may still be contemplating a long-shot, belated Phase II move against almost anything).  My two most reasonable carrier uses in the short and near term might be to reinforce the Aluetians or to invade Ndeni, but I sure don't want to blunder into John's ships.  I want to see where they go first, so for now I may position my carriers around New Zealand.

[crsutton]

Sooner or later he should be able to gain the advantage and take Changsha. The open terrain around it just makes it inevitable. If not, shame on him.

"Slick Trick" If you are defending Changsha in force then start moving every shattered unit you can manage into Changsha. To take the city he will really be required to cut it off which means that everything in there will die. Shove every fragment into the hex and they all will die and come back to Chungking. You can never hope to rebuild most of them anyways.

Smart Japanese play is to not surround unit but to push them and grind them up. But a major siege like this offers you a chance to get a lot of wasted units back for free. It can't be passed up.

[Bullwinkle58]

The underlying content of the "bad word" astericks show up when you Quote. [:)] Might want to check the spelling on your B-17 effort.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Bullwinkle.  I was pulling out my hair trying to figure out which word I had used that the Forum thought was vulgar.  Turns out I meant to use "shifted" but accidentally ommitted the "f".

[Canoerebel]

I will be very disappointed in my play if John takes Changsha.  I'm not saying its impossible, but I am saying I still feel good about my situation and my ability to defend China along the lines I want to defend her.