The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for chiming in on the potentially charged political question, gents.  I was confident that you guys would handle it well, as you did, and I really did want your thoughts.  One of the historical topics I've covered most deeply in my years of research and writing has been the efforts of southerners who opposed secession.  They were in a tough position and suffered for their viewpoints.  Anyhow, thanks again for giving your thoughts.  Now I'll get back to the game.

In a considerate way, John brought up that I have just violated one of the House Rules.  I used one small B-17E squadron and one small B-17D squadron at Chungking to target two small IJA units moving across open terrain SE of Changsha.  My purpose was to slow down these units.  I had totally forgotten that there is the House Rule prohibiting use of 4EB against troops in the open.  John handled it well.  I'll notify him that I'll stop and that we can re-do the turn if he wishes to.

That's one reason I hate House Rules.  While the rule may have a good purpose (to prevent the Allies from using 50 4EB to destroy enemy troops in the open), my use was reasonable and for an entirely different purpose.  So, while I violated the rule, I wasn't violating the spirit of the rule.  Meanwhile, John uses massed 2EB against Chinese in open terrain to totally obliterate them.  So, he keeps the rule, but violates the spirit of the rule (IMO).  I say this only because in China the Allies have an extremely limited ability to offer CAP to troops outside of the few major cities that have supply.  But Japan is free to bring the entire airforce against the Chinese.  Oh well, I'm not going to broach this with John (at least not now, as doing so would seem to be retaliatory for his invoking - properly, I hasten to add - the House Rule).

Now, I have a new turn in the box, so it's time to run it and see what's going on. 

Not to mention that the Japanese player has a very large number of medium bombers that he can put over your ground units and the ability to produce many more whereas the Allied player have a very small pool of medium bombers at this stage of the war. This is as bad house rule as I have seen. Yes, Allied 4Es are a bit too effective in this sort of thing. But the aircraft that should be doing this work (fighter bombers) are totally useless for this purpose. And in any scen #2 really can't be used this way due to the number of Japanese fighters buzzing around. So basically the rule allows the Japanese player to smoke ground units in the open and the Allies can't. That puts a nice historical spin on things...[8|]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: obvert

When I attack in China, I'm happy for equal losses of disabled squads, as I know Japan can bring enough supply to make them up quickly. I'm often ready again in another week with AV back to near the previous levels. The Chinese I've faced have not had the supply available to make up those disabled losses, so their AV goes continually down and their moral/fatigue keep going up.



Do you have enough supply to sustain these losses and keep rebuilding these frontline units?

I agree. From my Allied experience in China I think that the proper Japanese play is just to grind away at the Chinese. Grinding eats enemy supply quickly. And low supply for the Chinese means no replacements and very low recovery rates. It may take a couple of years but eventually they will just crack. I have noticed that even my well supplied Chinese troops are very very slow to recover disruption in 1945. So, grind away.

I am sure that the Japanese have supply issues in China as well. But I can't imagine that they were are bad as my own Chinese supply problems were. John has dithered and needs to take out some more major supply centers though. Once you crack Sian, Changsha and Lanchow there simply is no supply for the Chinese and it then get easier.

Even flying supplies over the hump could not help me.

[JocMeister]

China is very very hard as the allies IMHO.

I´m not even sure its possible to hold on to it against an opponent that devotes some attention to it. The combination of low supply, Japanese air power and invulnerable "tank armies" makes it very hard. If you take a look at a few of the AARs many (most?) allied players have lost, or are about to loose China.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

[Canoerebel]

Japanese air power is a problem.  If Japan doesn't have supply problems, that also complicates my situation.
 
But I do not intend to lose China - at least in the short or medium term, when it really matters to me.
 
In my game with PzH, he worked China hard, achieving a serious breakthrough around 4/20/42 - the same date we're at in this game.  PzH drove a hole into my MLR and had the oomph to exploit.  Sian was the first key city to fall, with Lanchow and the rest of north and northwest China following suit.  However, when the game ended in June '42, the Allies were still fighting hard and effectively.  I should also note that PzH seldom engaged in an attack that didn't make sense.
 
In this game, John has worked a hole in my MLR, but I don't think he has the oomph to exploit it.  He's also wearing out his own troops and getting them isolated and strung out.  As best I can tell, the Chinese have the ability to effectively counter for a long time to come.  There is even a chance the Chinese will eventually go on the offensive in a meaningful way.
 
That's as I see it.  Events will prove if I'm too optimistic or not realistic.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

OTOH, the opponent in question may make a difference. CR has already deduced that John likes the "sexy" part of the game like naval action and shock attacks, but seems to pay less attention to building the infrastructure needed to support offensives. That suggests he may not have moved enough supply to China [as Greyjoy noted, the entire Empire is clamouring for supply]. It is also evident that he has not ensured continuous road/rail links to his assault units from his supply ports.
We'll wait and see ....

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

OTOH, the opponent in question may make a difference. CR has already deduced that John likes the "sexy" part of the game like naval action and shock attacks, but seems to pay less attention to building the infrastructure needed to support offensives. That suggests he may not have moved enough supply to China [as Greyjoy noted, the entire Empire is clamouring for supply]. It is also evident that he has not ensured continuous road/rail links to his assault units from his supply ports.
We'll wait and see ....

Agreed. It's also apparent that CR's opponent either doesn't appreciate or care about the impact of disruption, fatigue and morale on LCUs. Those repeated 1:2 or 1:3 attacks are terribly debilitating in the long run. Until they're 'rested off', it will be a problem.

Just looking at "how many divisions I have" at a certain point on the map is a very small part of the picture. I too wonder if he has or will do the needful to ensure a sustainable offense.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Obvert, I was under the impression that supply is usually a problem for Japan in China.  Am I wrong?

I'm not Obvert, but yes-you would be mistaken to make this assumption.

Depends on what you're doing elsewhere. It shouldn't be a problem at all if you're making a defined push and know you'll need extra to replenish those disabled squads. A Japanese player may have t oplan to keep a surplus for this reason, but it definitely can be done easily.

Often I send a supply convoy of 30-50k to Shanghai from the HI just before an attack to get the units topped up, make sure all fields have good supply and provide for quick repair afterward.

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Agreed. It's also apparent that CR's opponent either doesn't appreciate or care about the impact of disruption, fatigue and morale on LCUs. Those repeated 1:2 or 1:3 attacks are terribly debilitating in the long run. Until they're 'rested off', it will be a problem.

Just looking at "how many divisions I have" at a certain point on the map is a very small part of the picture. I too wonder if he has or will do the needful to ensure a sustainable offense.

+1

Patience is imperative in a Chinese ground campaign. I was shocked the first time I got a 1:2 with 1000+ disabled squads. I thought that army would never recover. Several weeks later I was ready to go again, moral up and fatigue down and AV only a few hundred below the first attack, but the Chinese hadn't recovered more than 100 squads.

I've never played with stacking limits, but from what I've seen in other games it seems even more important to take time, rotate out depleted units, and concentrate on definite objectives.

[Capt. Harlock]

China Situation:  The Japanese are reinforceing the interior base by air, bringing in most of an infantry regiment and some support units.  I am hoping that the best John can do is to bring enough supply to make the base defensible but that his units won't have enough supply to go on the offensive. 

Are you allowed to use 4E's here? Since the IJA troops are occupying the base, they're not in the open.

[Canoerebel]

My Chinese army has suffered alot of disruption, but overall it's standing up well.  Fighting on good terrain is the main reason, of course.  Also, nearly every leader has been swapped out for better leaders.  And now many of my front line units are at or above 50 experience, with many more in the upper 40s.  The Chinese seem to be bringing in troops more efficiently than Japan, which is feeding them in piecemeal and often at less optimal locations.

My general feeling of optimism in China is predicated on my "assumption/hunch/belief" that an interior base depending on air supply can probably support defense, but not effective offensive operations.  If that assumption is wrong, I already have a major problem.

I really only have two concerns at this point:  whether the air war will wreak havoc on my units.  From what I've seen thus far, the effect isn't dramatic on units on good defensive terrain.  So this isn't a huge concern.

The last concern is knowing that John is feeding more divisions into the theater.  I can handle some, but at some point he may blow a hole in my defenses.  I think he's working on that in the Nanning to Liuchow sector, but he has so many units tied up elsewhere - throwing themselves away in costly attacks at or near Changsha - that he risks leaving parts of his line weak, or at least weak enough that I from time to time can withdraw a unit here and there to reinforce.

So I'm optimistic, but I'm dealing with some unknowns.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
Are you allowed to use 4E's here? Since the IJA troops are occupying the base, they're not in the open.

Yes, but thus far they have been completely ineffective.

[ny59giants]

I would move a few (you decide how many) of your Light AA units with 36 x 40mm Bofor AA guns to Ledo and then march them into China along the mountains. The can reach up to 9000' and force John to keep some of his bombers higher or suffer losses.

[Canoerebel]

4/17/42
 
China:  Japanese bombers blast the Chinese units contesting the interior IJ base, then IJA units evict them with heavy losses.  The Chinese suffer 200 squads destroyed.  There's no way the Chinese can maintain any presence in this hex, and thus no way to maintain control of the hexsides.  The only viable defense is to prevent/slow reinforcements from coming in and any meaningful breakout.  As to the former, the Japanese don't have anything coming through gap previously used.  In fact, the Japanese position in that area is tenuous and may erode.  The best hope for Japan short term is to bring in more units and try for a more robust breakthrough at Nanning.  Again, my optimism is centered on my "assumption" that Japan cannot adequately support an interior and isolated army in a way that would permit effective offensive operations.  I hope I'm right on that account.

India:  While keeping one eye open for a possible IJ move in Assam, Ceylon or India, the Allies are beginning to move forward.  My primary goal is to seize some of the easternmost jungle hexes in upper Burma, forcing Japan to use some clear terrain hexes in establishing it's MLR. Clear terrain will be vulnerable both to assault and aerial attack, so Japan's position in Burma will be more tenuous.  Towards that end, I may shift the Oz Division currently at Karachi forward, leaving the second Oz Divison (this one at Bombay) as theater reserve (and it's prepping for Cocos Island anyway). I like NYGiants suggestion about moving light AA forward.

Australia:  More enemy subs around Brisbane and Sydney, but nothing major underway.  32nd Div. at San Fran will move to LA and immediately embark for SWPac - probably Brisbane.

Pacific:  No news of note.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Again, my optimism is centered on my "assumption" that Japan cannot adequately support an interior and isolated army in a way that would permit effective offensive operations.  I hope I'm right on that account.

You know Hankow is a sizeable port base, don't you? Many IJ players will have regular supply runs with light (xAKL) convoys shuttling supply directly into this base from downriver. It's a very efficient means of helping deliver supply to the interior to permit effective offensive operations. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

4/18/42
 
Yeah, I'm aware of that.  What I'm referring to is the Japanese base that is inside the Allied lines with no means of drawing supply except by air.  If John can provide enough supply to allow serious offensive operations outside that hex, I have a much bigger problem.
 
China:  Waiting to see what happens in this regard.  Will John move out of the base and try offensive operations?  I'll post a screen shot later showing the current situation in China.  John doesn't have any short term prospects for causing problems elsewhere along the Chinese MLR.
 
India:  No sign of enemy moves forward from Port Blair.  A Brit brigade at Chittagong will move forward to Cox's Bazaar.  Cocos Island airfield goes to level three, which is a problem, though it took quite some time for John's engineers to work that.  I'm getting occasional SigInt about small IJ base forces at Cocos, but nothing about major infantry units.  This target remains on my radar for possbile action (if the KB should end up around the Coral Sea or the Pacific).
 
Australia:  Nothing significant happening.  Two reinforcement TFs are nearing Melbourne, carrying a combat engineer unit (prepping for Cocos), two base forces, and 158 Motorized Brigade.  Four American CVs at Melbourne to upgrade.
 
Pacific:  Quiet.

[Canoerebel]

The complex (and messy, when you see my attempt at map work) situation in China. Except for the "interior IJ base two hexes behind my MLR at Changsha, the Chinese look to be in good shape (the IJ unit on the RR is a mortar unit that's about to get evicted soundly).

Possibly you can discern from this map why my focus is on whether John can support offensive operations from the interior base solely by air supply. If he can't, the Chinese are in good shape and John may be facing more problems than I am. But if John can use that base to fund offensive operations, then I have a serious problem. I'm guessing he can't, because I don't think even the Americans would be able to do very much under the same circumstances in '44, using Dakotas to fly supply to a division or two behind enemy lines.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies are working on a plan to leave Japan with a potential critical weakness Japan's Upper Burma MLR. If the Allies succeed it may give rise to an opportunity to offer succor to China through the Lashio corridor.

[paullus99]

If you can start creating problems in places like Burma - low cost, low risk operations, it will force John to pay attention. The more you can get him to dance to your tune, the better....he's a big fan of trying to lure you in to attacking where he wants you to - making a place like Burma more proactively-active might be a good move on your part (with keeping an eye on potential moves against India or Ceylon).

[Canoerebel]

4/19/42 and 4/20/42
 
A good week or so back, I let my AAR get a day off.  This report actually only covers a single day, April 20, but I need to add the second day to get rid of a sync bug of my own doing....

China:  No major changes in the key areas all around Changsha, but it looks like 18th IJA Div. is just a couple of days out of Nanning.  That unit will threaten my little outpost at Nanning, but I don't think it's a major threat to the overall security of my far right wing.

Burma:  No changes.  (A few posts up, NYGiants suggested marching light AA units from India to China - I'm wondering if he specifically limited it to light units - would heavy units eat up too much supply?)

Australia:  Nothing major happening.  Patrols out of Manado caught a second IJN carrier TF moving up toward Babeldoab.  This is helpful information.  It suggests that Australia is temporarily safe, same with India.  It may be that John could be upgrading.  Two USN CVs began a week-long upgrade today.  250 land-based fighters protect this base.

Pacific:  32nd USA Div. reaches LA tomorrow.