The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I think John's opsec violations are "I can't help myself" in nature - not Nemo kind of counterintelligence.
 
Houtje, I'm not sure about the supply situation in the jungle as I haven't fought in Burma since my campaign against Miller three or four years ago.  There have been many patches and changes since then.  Due to monsoon rules, I'm playing things cautiously right now (not moving into the Upper Burma plains to initiate an offensive).  I feel confident that if supply is a problem in these jungle hexes it would also pose a problem to John's troops should he try to dislodge me.  I know that both GreyJoy and Q-Ball had massed troops in these same jungle hexes, so I take that as an indication that it's possible to sustain an army.  Towards that end, I'm trying to build the airfields at the nearby bases, especially Imphal.
 
There's alot of stuff going on that's giving me some pretty good leads as to what John's thinking right now.  This comes from his emails, as Bullwinkle notes, SigInt and force use and disposition.  Thus, right now, I know these things:
 
1)  John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely.  He's going to pay for it in 1942.
 
2)  John is giving alot of attention to the DEI - lots of ships moving around including visits to Cocos Island and reinforcements going to Padang, Sabang, etc.  He'll obviously worry about the Australians moving up the west coast (which they will, by land to take Carnavon).  It should be relatively easy to keep John's attention in this theater.
 
3)  I'm confident he isn't moving on Perth region.  He's run a poorly devised feint that wasn't credible for reasons I can give in detail later, should anyone wish.
 
4)  I am pretty sure he's moving into the New Caledonia region.  Again, there are lots of small signs, which I interpret as indicating "this is the real thing."
 
5)  Currently there isn't any indication of attention in the Pacific island groups.  This will change - after he fills in his weaknesses in the DEI and the Coral Sea regions he'll begin to worry about vulernabilities in the Pacific.  He'll be able to attend to these soon enough that I won't be able to take advantage of them (except perhaps the Gilberts).

[paullus99]

If he's moving in the direction of New Caledonia, its got to be an attempt to "bring you to battle" by threatening something he thinks you'll have no choice but to defend - but an area of the map is only as important as you think it will be - if you don't care, then he's off wasting a bunch of resources that would be better utilized somewhere else.

From John's game with Andy (and others) I get the sense that he is sometimes in awe of his own strategic genius & expects that allied players will simply walk right into the traps that he has prepared.

I don't expect that you'll make the same mistake - since your tendency to solve problems with a "hammer" and not a scalpel....

[Canoerebel]

I've allowed his combat and bombardment TFs to move around Luganville and Efate without the slightest opposition.  I'm hoping that might give him a false sense of security.  So I've moved some LBA to Brisbane where it can make the jump to Noumea.  I'm also positioning my carriers so that their aircraft can make the hop - but I'm keeping them well behind the line of picket ships and patrol plane search arcs so that I don't stumble into the KB.

[pws1225]

I think John is simply an exuberant fellow who enjoys playing the game. He's not giving away free OpSec as much as he is attempting to elicite similar responses from CR. After all, sharing in a good time is more fun than going it alone.

Just my thoughts on the matter.

[witpqs]

3)  I'm confident he isn't moving on Perth region.  He's run a poorly devised feint that wasn't credible for reasons I can give in detail later, should anyone wish.

Hell, yes! Those things are great AAR material!

[Canoerebel]

When John is really coming, he makes sustained and well-thought-out use of his subs, bombardment TFs and bombing raids to suppress the target and to watch his flanks.  When sub use is spradic, he doesn't bombard important coastal hexes, and his bombing raids are sporadic or small, he isn't coming in all probability.

In the Perth theater, he's used recon, para assaults on dot hexes, a small army moving overland, and small TFs on the periphery of my patrol arcs to suggest interest in the theater.  But the air campaign has been tepid and there have been few if any combat ships or subs in theater.

That's in sharp contrast to what he did before coming for Port Blair and what he's currently doing in the Luganville/Efate area.

I beefed up Perth theater defenses in March, but since then nearly all reinforcements have gone to the Rockhampton to Brisbane line.

[witpqs]

Thanks!

[Capt. Harlock]

1) John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely. He's going to pay for it in 1942.

Did you mean 1943, or should we watch for fireworks in November and December?

[Canoerebel]

Burma will be very active in 1942.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

1) John is reinforcing Burma and paying attention, though I think he's misinterpreted the situation completely. He's going to pay for it in 1942.

Did you mean 1943, or should we watch for fireworks in November and December?

It is very possible given this postition for the 2E LBA to start the showoff with a bang as soon as the IJA arrive for tea ... CR is doing an excellent job of seizing the strategic jungle hexes which means he will locate and target units for at least 4 turns possibly 8 (each bombing raid causes the target unit to go into combat mode) in the open. If John had fun in China with 2E's .. CR will end this game in Burma with 2E's ..

I can say from experience this position is incredibly dangerious for the IJA ... I sense that CR is going to let John under great duress march into his fortified jungle hexes and pin down 3X in numbers and then maneuver to cut these forces to pieces .. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

The prospects in Burma are indeed good, but I'm not as optimistic as Crackaces.  I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.  If so, didn't someone say, "This isn't the end.  It isn't even the beginning of the end.  But it is the end of the beginning."  That's how I feel about Burma if it turns out as I envision.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The prospects in Burma are indeed good, but I'm not as optimistic as Crackaces.  I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.  If so, didn't someone say, "This isn't the end.  It isn't even the beginning of the end.  But it is the end of the beginning."  That's how I feel about Burma if it turns out as I envision.

The map below is the last experience in which I speak from [8D] .. This game had Bangkok falling before Jan 1943 .. and CR is starting from a better position in many respects [&o] Thus my very enthusiastic and optimsitic outlook as I see this unfold ...

[JohnDillworth]

I think Burma might be the Guadalancal of this game.

Well mostly yes. The navy's will not beat each other to a pulp. The air attrition might be similar. The difference is he will not always be fighting 800 miles away at your airfields and always losing pilots. Cuts both ways here and his plane and pilot production is much higher than IRL. He has an equal chance of grinding you down and his land power has more road and rail. Still, the larger point is taken. It's time to grapple and you have more land troops coming . Waht's the end game? Supply to China or pushing south?

[Crackaces]

Well mostly yes. The navy's will not beat each other to a pulp

It is quite possible to beat the IJN to a pulp with B25's at LowNav as they desperately bombard Molumein and prevent landings at Ramree Island, or points along Maylay as things progress .like Tavoy .. and The Allies will have to eventually seize Gerogetown beacuse this is the only way to get supply to Bangkok .. . [ look at the railine ] This key objecitves cause forces to clash ..

But I would agree it is nothing like the exchanges I have seen in AAR's around the Solomon's and the DEI ..

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there really a gay bar in Laguna called Lavender Mountain?  

Berry College in Rome is the largest college/university (acreage) in the world, with 26,000 acres.  The campus includes most of Lavender Mountain, a long ridge that's roughly 1,300 feet in elevation (or about 700 feet above the surrounding area).  I mountain bike, hike, and run (very, very slowly) on the mountain quite often - Last week I did three short runs, one medium bike ride, and one hike to eat lunch on a rock and read a chapter of Costello's "The Pacific War."  I jokingly refer to the mountain as my "adjunct office."

Sadly, as far as I know, I made that up an there is no gay bar named "Lavender Mountain"..but it would be a great name... just a from a marketing standpoint.[:)]

I am impressed you do a 700 ft. vertical climb at lunch. [X(]

[Cribtop]

CR, I join in commending your Burma move. It would appear this should become a standard Allied tactic, especially in stacking limits games.

[obvert]

A lot of emphasis is being placed on Central Burma, and the importance of the extended jungle hexes to the NW of Mandalay, Shwebo and Magwe. While this is standard IJA defensive territory, it is not the only place to hold back the Allies in Burma. In fact, having played through this once now, I don't think the central Magwe-Shwebo area can be held once Allied 4Es get going in 43-44.

Below is a map of another set of defensive lines that offer great defensive territory, inside lines in most spots, and close support from what could be at least three major air bases and logistical centers on rail lines. With stacking limits, this territory could be very hard to break through. The solid white shows an outer, or first line, while the dotted an inner or secondary line. This also offers some defensive positions with river crossings in critical areas.

I think CR's positioning has really put John into a tight spot where he will be forced to react in some way, but this by no means makes Burma undefendable, if you consider the most important area of Burma to be the South. I certainly wouldn't want to have to shock over a river in a stacking limits game into +2 territory where units had dug in with 2-3 forts. This more condensed line would also give the defender a good chance to rotate troops in and out.

[Canoerebel]

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.

Well, I won't key him into my thinking, as I'm curious to see what he does himself and how this plays out. [;)]

[Crackaces]

I don't think the central Magwe-Shwebo area can be held once Allied 4Es get going in 43-44

That is not as much a problem in this game as CR is home ruled from striking units in open terrain with 4E's Although I sense that 4E's will be instrumental in supressing airfields ...

The line you propose only happends IMHO if the IJ do not get their nose snapped off trying to attack China or going North. I sense that your proposed strategy "knows" that the India jungle line is lost, and thus no destruction of 'Army Group Center" in the open terrain. John likes to keep the offensive initiative... but we can assume for a moment that he suddenly has some notion to build such a defensive line during IJ's expansion phase .. [8D]

Ok John and the IJA start a defense line anchored on Prome. running north of Toungoo and anchored on Taung Gvi. Then as you state Prome becomes very very important. Once Prome falls Toungoo and the rail network are next. There are also in my opinion two other really key hexes in that line ... the hex north northwest of Toungoo has a stacking limit of 70,000 and the one North along the backroad is 55,000. Those are vulnerabale spots in the line you propose. I used 4E's but I would propose 2E's/DB's and US armor can smash that hex. [US Armor == good concentration of firepower, which is very meaningful in this game I propose more meaningful than AV in this instance] and stacking ratios] US Marine Divisions are a close second in concentrated firepower and AV to stacking ratios ..


Please see my first PBEM: game: tm.asp?m=2874485&mpage=38&key= Although this game involved trapping 4K plus AV north of Taung Gvi when the line collapsed .. Your line proposes that the IJ does not get trapped ...

One thought about the IJ rotating units. A sustained interdiction campaign means that units are moving 1/2 speed and are constantly disrupted. Add Malaria and IJ units become quite stressed. The stress does not in my limited experince keep up with the potential attrition rate if CR uses US units and airpower. This front unlike any other front in my opinion the Allies can get a full concentration of airpower on selected targets. Because of malaria == disruption -> disabled -> destroyed.