The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.

Well, I won't key him into my thinking, as I'm curious to see what he does himself and how this plays out. [;)]

In all my excitement of watching Burma develop [I am quite partial to Burma [8D] ] I am thinking that CR is pulling off a masterful maskirovka sucking in the IJ's forces into an area easily stalemated if the Allies so desire .. Much like how in chess one can pin a piece from moving because it exposes a more vaulable piece behind ..... then the Allies begin to dismantle where the IJ are not ...

Then again . John is quite agressive .. I am not sure as CR predicts that he can build a defensive line and stalemate .... thus Plan 'A' -- Destruction of Army Group Center .. [8D]

It is fun to watch this play out ..

[Canoerebel]

I came across this newspaper article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution last week (March 5 issue). I read the first paragraph, found it unusual and humorous, and started reading the story aloud to my family. I didn't get very far before laughter and tears interfered with my reading....

[Canoerebel]

The Great PBEM Fantasy:  Sometimes I'll send a turn to my opponent expecting a major carrier or combat TF battle or a huge air raid against a particularly juicy and vulnerable enemy TF to take place.  Sometimes, my opponent doesn't send the turn back within the expected or ordinary-pace-of-turnaround time.  When that drags on, I begin to wonder if the results of the turn were so devastating that my opponent can't bring himself to finish the next turn (as I've had trouble doing myself when on the losing end of a major clash).  As more time passes, the fantasy becomes even stronger.  Finally, the turn arrives....and there was no action at all.  Not once - not a single time! - has the fantasy proved true.  It's always a real life matter that kept my opponent away for an extended period.
 
John hasn't flipped a turn since yesterday morning. That's very rare for him, but in this case I'm not getting my hopes up, because there isn't any pending combat anywhere on the map.  But I do know this:  Nothing bad happened to the Allies, because if it had wild horses, strong men, and the full weight of the law wouldn't keep John from posting in his AAR.

[Cap Mandrake]

That monkey story sounds like a Frat prank.

If somebody pulled that in 2013 they would need your services when the felony animal cruelty charge came down.

Also a good idea for a sci fi story when a real race of Aliens decide to camouflage themselves as shaved monkeys to get their little simian paws on the nuclear weapons keys.

[Houtje]

Apparently, the poor thing is still on display:

http://www.alien-earth.org/ufos/news.php?news=1962

[Cribtop]

Poor monkey. Obvert, you are spot on about where to defend Burma. See PzB vs Andy Mac and others.

However, I think GreyJoy demonstrated the ability to have a first MLR farther north, especially in stacking limits games. What CR has done here is turn that move on its head and effectively force John back to your line. He has done this without firing a shot and in a manner I'm not sure the IJA could counter even if John knew what was in the offing. In other words, GreyJoy found a solution to the problem of the undefendable Irrawaddy plains, CR's move counters that and puts us back in a situation where the Commonwealth can do much better than the historical advances in Burma.

[Canoerebel]

The key to countering this early '42 Burma strategy by the Allies is for Japan to retain the option of invading NE India.  If the Allies aren't careful, they can get a huge army isolated.  In most games the Allies have to be very careful about defending too far forward in early '42.  In this game, I knew I was okay (or, at least I THINK I am okay) due to a number of important factors including John's debacle at Singapore and the fact that I knew where so many of his divisions were.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

None of us can look ahead and foresee what circumstances might shape this particlar campaign in Burma, but I'm 99% sure John won't think of occupying the line Obvert describes (and it's a great line, so I hope I'm right!).  John will focus on defending Schewbo, Mandalay, etc.  He might even try to contest the jungle hexes once he figures out what I'm doing.

Yeah, once the Allies gain some strength in Burma Obvert's defensive line makes sense. However, I think that ultimately the Japanese player should be looking at a timely evacuation of Burma. After the Allies get sufficient amphibious assets, it is just too easily flanked. It begins to get very easy to trap the who lot of them north of Rangoon.

Personally, I would apply just a enough pressure in Burma in the hopes that the Japanese player did not evacuate thinking he is doing just fine. Then I take Pegu or Moulmein and he is totally bagged. But it is really mid 43 before the Allies can pull this one off.

[Crackaces]

...effectively force John back to your line.

John still has ample opportunity to attempt to attack India/ try and establish an MLR on the Irrawaddy Valley and experience a thrashing ... before settling back on the Prome --Toungoo -- Taung Gvi line ... Also as I expressed before there are two very vulnerable hexes on that line taking 4K plus AV to defend with any vigor .. that can be breached with an investement of armor that CR has promised is yet to come ...

Just to say .. British planners did not think Operation Extended Captial was possible until the IJA showed that an Army could be sustained in the Jungles east of Kaylemyo .. then Slim started a bit late into the Irrawaddy Valley by that same "impossible" route .. Mountbatten's foray toward Akyab costs time, lives, and a lot of resources that if directed inland could have changed things a bit .. but alas ...

I am still in the back of my mind anticipating a 'GreyJoy' move once John invests enough to save Burma .. maybe not the Kuril Islands but ...

[Crackaces]

I would apply just a enough pressure in Burma in the hopes that the Japanese player did not evacuate thinking he is doing just fine. Then I take Pegu or Moulmein and he is totally bagged. But it is really mid 43 before the Allies can pull this one off.

Please look at post #911 .. I posted a map of my last game .. On Jan 43 and Bangkok & Ubon is well under controll ... happening just as you described ... [8D]

[Canoerebel]

5/20/42 and 5/21/42
 
SoPac:  The full KB is NW of Koumac providing cover for an invasion of Koumac (14th Division, according to SigInt).  This is one of those events that sets in motion many others and has far-ranging consequences.  In the short term, the Allies most likely won't give battle.  My carriers are 36 hexes south of Noumea.  Given a chance at something juicy, I would load up Noumea's airfield with carrier air.  But I won't risk my carriers nor will I use the air piecemeal - and it would be another two days before I could fly off the fighter squadrons.  
 
The Move:  I understand why John is coming for New Caledonia - it's lightly defended and has good bases and it holds an almost mystical allure to Pac War fans due to its Real War importance.  But the victory points are only relevant in a Auto Vic situation and this isn't one.  I don't care if John takes all of SoPac - including New Zealand, Fiji and Samoa at this point.  Japan holding those bases doesn't affect the Allies in the least bit (I can easily handle logistics to Oz from West Coast via Capetown) and I can let these bases whither on the vine until I retake them on the cheap in '43 or '44.
 
Allied Reaction:  The full KB in SoPac means every other major theater is safe for quite some time.  This is especially important in India, where I am still maintining strong defenses around Calcutta and to the south and west.  I've released more of these units to head to Burma.  I also like a SoPac invasion because the more time and troops John invests in the DEI, around Oz, and in SoPac, the easier he will be to "spook" into fearing countermoves on my part later - when I'm actually more interested in Burma, NoPac, and CenPac.
 
Nuts or No Nuts?  My Cocos Island invasion force would have been perfectly situated to bore in knowing that the KB was far, far away.  In fact, the big APD force carrying the Marine raiders just arrived on map south of Cocos.  It would have been fun to see how that invaison might have worked out, but I'm very glad that I scrubbed it.  The Aussie divisions is one day out of Dimapur and will be in Kalemyo in a week.  Burma offers far more promise at considerably less risk than an invasion of Cocos followed by the extended effort to keep the base supplied.
 
China:  I'll know in a day or two if the trapped Chinese army will escape.  Prospects look favorable.
 
Burma:  No sign that the enemy recognizes the situation.
 
Pacific:  7th Marines and some support units boarding transports at LA to move to Pearl.

[Canoerebel]

The question that I'm wrestling with the hardest is what to do with my carriers now.  I have three options:
 
1.  Move most or all of them to the Bay of Bengal to support operations to occupy and build Ramree Island, which I believe to be ungarrisoned.  There is a small chance the Allies could sustain this, but more likely John would react violently (including committing the KB) with sufficient force to retake the island.  That reaction would be useful as my carriers could then pursue opportunities elsewhere.  I think I like this option, though there is risk to my carriers from LBA operating out of Rangoon.
 
2.  Move the four American carriers to SoPac to help with a move into the Gilberts.  This would be nice if my carriers were already there and thus not menaced by the KB.  But by the time I can get my carriers there, the KB might be free and stationed at Truk or vicinity.  This is actually a pretty good option, but how does it compare to Ramree?
 
3.  Leave my carriers where there are - mainly at Melbourne - to ensure the safety of Oz and to keep them centrally available.
 
By late autumn, I plan to use some or most of my carriers to support landings in the western Aleutians, but until then I have no pressing plans.

[Canoerebel]

After looking at the map and available ships and troops, I'm going to try both:
 
1.  The Allies will immediately organize an invasion of Ramree Island.  The American carriers will report to the Bay of Bengal, though I might not await them before inserting the marine raider battalion, which is aboard APDs now moving to Colombo (from a point south of Cocos Island).  Hopefully, surprise, the fast-transport nature of the mission, and LRCAP from Akyab might provide sufficient protection for the initial move.  When the carriers arrive, the Allies can bring in additional troops, including the UK brigade currently at Colombo, a base force, an engineering unit, and a CD unit.  This operation should dovetail nicely with the other Allied activities in Burma.  This is meant to prompt maximum mental unease for John.
 
2.  Tarawa is currently a level zero airfield.  The Japanese have no airfield larger than size one closer than Maloelap.  I am putting together invasion TFs at Pearl where troops are prepping for Makin, Tarawa and Abemama.  I may or may not await CVE Long Island (and her Marine F4F squadron) that is currently escorting a troop transport TF from LA to Pearl.  The KB isn't all that far south of the Gilberts, but I think I can work this to get an open shot.  One possibility is that the move on Ramree prompts a violent reaction, especially if/when I reveal my carriers.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Great PBEM Fantasy:  Sometimes I'll send a turn to my opponent expecting a major carrier or combat TF battle or a huge air raid against a particularly juicy and vulnerable enemy TF to take place.  Sometimes, my opponent doesn't send the turn back within the expected or ordinary-pace-of-turnaround time.  When that drags on, I begin to wonder if the results of the turn were so devastating that my opponent can't bring himself to finish the next turn (as I've had trouble doing myself when on the losing end of a major clash).  As more time passes, the fantasy becomes even stronger.  Finally, the turn arrives....and there was no action at all.  Not once - not a single time! - has the fantasy proved true.  It's always a real life matter that kept my opponent away for an extended period.

John hasn't flipped a turn since yesterday morning. That's very rare for him, but in this case I'm not getting my hopes up, because there isn't any pending combat anywhere on the map.  But I do know this:  Nothing bad happened to the Allies, because if it had wild horses, strong men, and the full weight of the law wouldn't keep John from posting in his AAR.

[:D][:D][:D]

In the end, the reason had something to do with ceramic tiles.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, he told me via email.  Fortunately, I hadn't lapsed into fantasy mode.

[Q-Ball]

In general, losing Noumea for the Allies is inconvenient; it lengthens the trip to Australia, and is a very nice base to build for later conquests. But it's not critical. The main reason is as you say, it's easy to cut-off. And though Allied shipping to Oz makes a longer trip, Allies have plenty of shipping capacity to tie-up in longer routes.

A move on Western Australia is much more decisive; you wouldn't be moving CVs to the Bay of Bengal if Perth was in Japanese hands.

[Canoerebel]

Right.  Nor would I be able to do this if Japan held Diego Garcia. 
 
Freedom of movement is pretty important in the midde of 1942.  Japan can give the Allies fits in that regard if the Japanese player focuses on certain key "listening" or "blocking" posts.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

In general, losing Noumea for the Allies is inconvenient; it lengthens the trip to Australia, and is a very nice base to build for later conquests. But it's not critical. The main reason is as you say, it's easy to cut-off. And though Allied shipping to Oz makes a longer trip, Allies have plenty of shipping capacity to tie-up in longer routes.

A move on Western Australia is much more decisive; you wouldn't be moving CVs to the Bay of Bengal if Perth was in Japanese hands.

I think CR plans to supply OZ strictly from Perth and Ignore the Noumea adventure.

The funny thing from my perspective is when the CENPAC thrust cuts the Pacific in two and whatever is south of Rabul is cutoff and by-passed..[;)]
Thus a real danger in John's strategy in my mind ... This is not Scenario #2 and John has yet to define the line he plans to transition to the defense .. Meanwhile the clock ticks ...

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

After looking at the map and available ships and troops, I'm going to try both:

1.  The Allies will immediately organize an invasion of Ramree Island.  The American carriers will report to the Bay of Bengal, though I might not await them before inserting the marine raider battalion, which is aboard APDs now moving to Colombo (from a point south of Cocos Island).  Hopefully, surprise, the fast-transport nature of the mission, and LRCAP from Akyab might provide sufficient protection for the initial move.  When the carriers arrive, the Allies can bring in additional troops, including the UK brigade currently at Colombo, a base force, an engineering unit, and a CD unit.  This operation should dovetail nicely with the other Allied activities in Burma.  This is meant to prompt maximum mental unease for John.

2.  Tarawa is currently a level zero airfield.  The Japanese have no airfield larger than size one closer than Maloelap.  I am putting together invasion TFs at Pearl where troops are prepping for Makin, Tarawa and Abemama.  I may or may not await CVE Long Island (and her Marine F4F squadron) that is currently escorting a troop transport TF from LA to Pearl.  The KB isn't all that far south of the Gilberts, but I think I can work this to get an open shot.  One possibility is that the move on Ramree prompts a violent reaction, especially if/when I reveal my carriers.

If you look just a bit south of Tarawa you'll see the island of Tabiteuea. It can be built up to a port size of 4 and airfield size of 6. It also has a stacking limit of 40,000, a rarity in these parts. That might make a nice forward bastion for further moves into the area and beyond. It might be worth forgoing Abemama in favor of Tabiteuea.

[Canoerebel]

Tabiteuea is important, but it's off to the side.  More important, short term, to seize the three islands that are mutually supporting.  If the Allies get those, I can then look to Tabiteuea and other islands further south (I have a USA RCT halfway to Pearl that I can use for that purpose).
 
Disclaimer:  In many of my games, I have organized to invade the Gilberts.  Quite often, I end up scrubbing the mission as it seems that my opponents usually begin paying attention just a week before my troops arrive.  I like the Gilberts.  I like the fact that they haven't been built up yet.  I'll go in if things look good.  But this operation isn't important enough to take a big chance.  So we'll see.
 
Ramree Island, on the other hand, is worth some risk, given it's proxmity to the Burma line and the heat and unease John is beginning to experience there.