Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

But what is this? A re-invasion? (The second TF is DD and xAK(s)) Even if it is and even if it works, for what? If it's just a harrassment raid on the merchants it's a boatload (several in fact) of fuel to come from wherever to punch on some xAKs. I don't get it. Which usually means I missed something.

This close to Pearl I think its safe to assume its the full KB. Have you monitored your own CV TFs to see if the DL has risen on any of them? Could he have spotted them either via sub or sigint and is now looking for a fight?

Well, three are in San Diego, two in upgrade, one out. Two are at sea, one damaged, the other escorting. Those have just been seen by a sub which is dead. Oh how I would love for him to bring to KB near Hawaii now. Please, yes. [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

March 25, 1942

Doing the Balikpapan Bop

Sunday, and the end of Mike's period of extensive work travel. We should resume a more regular order this week. He did a great job of playing from the road, late at night, after long car trips, etc., and the effort was much appreciated here. It allowed me to keep my head in the game and not lose track of those little details than can chomp on one's hind quarters if neglected.

1) Balikpapan is currently Japan's #1 oil and fuel supplier and I have tried to make it as unpleasant as possible to pull POL out of there. Subs, surface sorties from Soerbaja, a few mines earlier, etc. I have also used my few 4E units almost exclusively with a view to taking down Oil while I am in range. I am still in range from major air bases at Batavia and Soerbaja, and both have been almost untouched by counter-strikes. At the two reside a motley crew of models and squadron conditions, training, and fatigue. The Oil missions, except for Djambi, are long-range and very tiring to pilots and airframes. Nevertheless, I have tried to mix up targets and altitudes to keep the CAP game difficult for Japan. Sometimes it's worked, other times the Allies got hurt. But I think in total the damage to the Oil sector is starting to matter.

Today the Allies concentrated all 4E efforts from both bases on Balikpapan. Low, consistent altitude (3000 feet), daylight, no escorts possible. Balikpapan has had good CAP before, but not much AA. The strikes go in completely uncoordinated--four separate raids--but score excellent results.

CAP throughout is patrolling at 14,000 feet.

B-25Cs first, seven planes. They eat up a lot of the CAP's op points. Two damaged for 4 Oil hits.
Second wave of eight B-25Cs has one damaged for 9 Oil hits.
Seven B-17s see one damaged for 8 Oil hits. The damage comes from a barrage balloon.
Nine LB-30 Liberators have two damaged and score 15 Oil hits.

31 planes, 36 points of Oil damage. Five weeks of work and 36,000 supply to get back to battery. A good day.

2) For some reason a minesweeping TF comes into Bataan's hex and is roughed up by mines and CD. An SC and a DMS are hit and at least one sinks per sound effect. Thirty mines are cleared, but I don't understand this move. Once Bataan falls safe minesweeping is in order, and Bataan doesn't need amphibious landings to fall.

3) I-2 sinks xAK Admiral Cole SW of Kodiak. I have been running many small TFs in and out of Dutch Harbor since the beginning of the war. Escorts are precious and rare still. The AMs and KVs available are trying to keep the harbor entrances open. This will change soon as ASW ships arrive and upgrade, but for now some losses are inevitable.

4) At Singers the Oscars come low again and sink xAKL Ipoh with 36 small bomb hits. Not sure, but from her position in the turn prep there's a chance she was sunk empty. Still running in one APD per day with 180 supply per trip. Singers is down to about 11,800 with Forts half way to 4. The normal 2E bombing occurs with some AF damage and about 25 damaged bombers, but fort-building should still occur today.

5) Experimented with pulling all planes out of Palembang to Oosthaven and Batavia, even the patrols. P. gets no air attacks at all. Forts here are moving toward 4. Supplies pulled up from Oosthaven from CT are about 85,000.

6) Harassment bombing in China. Another strike on Kienko, which has no garrison.

7) Float planes seen east of Palmyra. All of the UNDERDOG TFs are withdrawn from the Christmas I. area now. Those with some supply are going to dump in Hilo before returning to the WC. All have APDs for escort. The float planes could be subs, or from the carrier TF seen two days ago, which read as having CSes. If this is the case this TF is coming pretty far east in search of prey. I have considered sending Yorktown south at high speed to snipe, but the risk seems too great for now. If Hornet were with her I"d do it, but the risk of the IJN TF make-up not being what I was told is too great for one CV, even one with expert pilots.

[Bullwinkle58]

March 26, 1942

March On

Not a big day for the "blow stuff up" crowd. The month moves toward its conclusion. April, anticipated, will bring many key ship upgrades, the end of the bonus, and the beginning of new Allied moves forward. Today? Very standard stuff.

1) The heavy Allied sub presence in the Mkassar Strait is keeping a lot of ASW ships nailed in place, including fleet destroyers. Sparring and jabbing, attacks and misses today, still no heavy tanker traffic seen. With radar upgrades next month it is hoped the sub war will begin producing more returns.

2) The RN ASW TF of two top-rated DDs continues to patrol the water between Palembang and Singers. Today HMS Isis attacks RO-34 and begins to apply the wood when she runs out of depth charges in mid-attack. The DDs also draw low-level Oscar raids away from Singers, taking light damage from MG fire, but dodging the bombs. Four Oscars do hit the port, inflicting one shell hit on one ML, which allows the supply dump to continue. Yesterday's load was in fact delivered before the xAKL was sunk, taking Singers back over 12,000 supply. Forts are now 3 + mid-50%s.

41 2E bombers are damaged and 2 are destroyed in Singers raids today.

3) The AVG breaks up a raid on Taung Gyi from Chiang Mai.

Morning Air attack on Taung Gyi , at 59,48

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 20

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 2
P-40E Warhawk x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged

No Allied losses

Intel yesterday made CM an AF 2. Three Chinese corps are prepping for Chiang Mai and moving slowly south. The 12-stack south of the Mandalay group will be put to the test next month if flanking plans hold.

4) Forts and Mitchells hit Samarinda and are met by only one Tojo, which does no damage. 5 Oil hits are recorded.

5) Light bombing at Neikiang, which is feeding Resources into Chungking and has a small garrison. This is the last base in the Chungking plain to be probe-bombed. Recon assets are rare, so it is undetermined if Japan is preparing for a major campaign on the plain now, or later.

6) No land combat takes place; no new landings are begun.

[Bullwinkle58]

The recent building history at Palembang, showing effect of Japan's air operations:

[Bullwinkle58]

Singers' recent supply history showing Allied efforts to run in materiel and keep the siege alive:

[Bullwinkle58]

Air loss status, for the record. Ops losses on the Mavis are interesting:

[Bullwinkle58]

March 27, 1942

Mixing It Up

US English gives at least two meanings to that title. In this case it is meant literally, not as an idiom for a lot of fighting. Japanese land operations continue to be very slow and steady. There have been a few small takings here and there, either Rowboat Corps or frag landing, in the PI and elsewhere, but in the last week of the bonus large pieces of real estate are still untouched.

1) So, in the literal sense, the Allies mix it up today, targeting outside of what have been norms in an attempt to "send a message": Until we are pushed out of range a lot of your new empire is vulnerable. The results are pinpricks, but perhaps the uncertainty will unsettle Japanese leaderhsip.

Five B-26s hit Makassar at 15,000 feet, bombing Resources this time. One point of damage is recorded. No CAP.

Further afield in what Japan may consider rear areas now, nine Liberators bomb Georgetown's heavy industry at 4000 feet. One point of damage is done. No CAP. No Allied damage.

And in a continuation of recent tactics, twenty B-17s and B-25Cs hit Balikpapan again from 3000 feet. Nine Zeroes and Tojos respond, destroying three planes. But the Allies score 7 more Oil hits on Japan's currently largest petroleum base. The Allies have been shifting targets daily to confuse, but perhaps it may be worth concentrating for a few days to wear down the CAP. A CAP of nine versus 4-5 bombers will win by disruption, but as the Allies increasingly have pools to mount two-dozen-bomber raids this might force further CAP concentrations, making the outlier attacks even safer for the Allies to shift to.

2) USS Pompano is attacked twice on the inside layer of the Kuriles, once hitting and dudding on a PB. This is the first time ASW has been seen beyond the inner Sea of Japan layer. Probably due to xAKL converisons coming on-line in larger numbers, but is still good intel and an investment of assets which shows the Sea of Japan patrolling has alarmed Japan at least a little.

3) Twin sweeps of 81 total Zeroes at Palembang find empty skies. Bombing is light and has not stopped fort-building. At Singers a medium-size xAP, xAP Taireais, is in trying to deliver 2000 supply. She is attacked by the low-Oscars which hit with 27 small bombs and sink her. Hit in the afternoon raids is xAP Le Maire, 31 bomb hits, which also sinks, before delivery I think. Time to re-eval Singers CAP. The AA is superb for 2E bombers (over thirty damaged today), but the Oscars are not put off by it. Japan has found something which works almost all the time, and with fighters with no other real job to do right now. An ML is also hit and explodes spectacularly, sinking. Yesterday, for the first time in awhile, AF damage was left at 10 after daily repairs and forts did not build.

4) Bataan is bombed in rotations. The Clark stack is still moving. I believe Clark to Bataan is about a six-day march, so I expect them tomorrow or the next day.

5) In China daily bombing of Tsuyung has become the norm. This is the southern outpost of the defenses. It has no supply, sometimes getting in 20 or so by air. When it does it builds forts, trying now to attain 2. Ledo is doing what it can, but needs aircraft. They are coming pretty soon.

6) The only ground action is Japan's squashing of a retreated British RN base force at Sandakan.

7) East of Hilo the UNDERDOG train rolls toward Pearl. Float planes and two SBD units see and deter Japanese subs. The gaggle should make Pearl tomorrow or the next day at worst. Enterprise has fixed a bit of damage en route and has done the transit at Mission speed without adding more. Good crew.

[Bullwinkle58]

March 28, 1942

Just A Day

Little wit this morning. It's snowing like a mofo and I've had about enough, please. Slow day in the PTO.

1) Couple of ASW encounters in the Makassar Strait. The Dutch subs find and are found, the sides exchange a few rounds, but nobody gets hurt. No tankers seen. The investment of 6-8 subs here is not paying any VP dividends, but it is tying up IJN assets. If tankers are leaving by an easterly route for the long hook home I'm not seeing it. Several subs are on those approaches too.

2) Pompano penetrates the Sea of Japan and meets the same PB as yesterday. Gives it a matching dent courtesy of the US taxpayer.

3) Fruitless sweeps at Palembang, followed by low-levels of bombing. Forts will reach 4 here pretty soon.

4) Sallys hit Manila Bay Defenses several times. The stack does not arrive. Move/follow orders with arty leading? Dunno.

5) Low Oscars hit xAKL at Singers with 23 bombs, sinking her. I think she unloaded first. My CAP stocks are repairing at Oosthaven and Batavia. Think this is the last merchant I'll send north until I can coordinate some CAP into the base. Supplies are north of 12,000, so I have a week to play with more or less before things get tight. All LCUs are bulging with internal supply. 2E bombing costs Japan two bombers and about 30-40 damaged.

6) Tsyung is bombed. Shifted all transports at Ledo to feed this base and leave Paoshan alone for now. A 7-stack is moving north on the rail line (not in strat of course), about half-way to Tsyung. This will be a test of Chinese troops' ability to defend with no real supply. The base could fall quickly as I beleive the 7-stack has tanks, probably several regiments. In seven days three transport units of 75 aircraft come into Aden; figure a week or so to get them to Ledo. If that time is given they will be used at Tsyung. If not, Paoshan. There are substantial Chinese stacks on the yellow road in the high mountains NE of Tsyung. If he sees them they should lock his 7-stack in place, else they will come in behind if it moves on Paoshan and sever its supply line. This ought to also buy Paoshan some time to fortify and supply up.

7) 4Es hit Balikpapan. CAP has been ramped up to 18 Zeroes. In two strikes 4 B-25Cs are lost for one Zero. No Oil hits. The Liberators hit Samarinda and do 3 Oil hits. B-26s re-attack Makassar Resources for 1 hit because the Allied commander forgot to turn them off. Bad Allied comamnder!

8) The only land action is Japan taking a small mid-PI base/island, Tagbilaran, unopposed.

[Bullwinkle58]

Well, just did the next turn and my, my! The 7-stack headed for Tsyung has turned into a 27-stack! Fun!

The red horde also reached Bataan.

And UNDERDOG is safely to Pearl and eating ice cream.

Gonna be some shootin' tonight!

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

March 19, 1942

One Tin Soldier Rides Away

This was the title of Mike's movie e-mail and refers to the famous US anti-war song written in the 1960s and made famous in the early 1970s by its inclusion in that famous movie, "Billy Jack" (you had to be there, kids):

http://www.scoutsongs.com/lyrics/onetinsoldier.html

"Go ahead and hate your neighbor,
Go ahead and cheat a friend.
Do it in the name of Heaven,
You can justify it in the end.
There won't be any trumpets blowing
Come the judgement day,
On the bloody morning after....
One tin soldier rides away."

His reference was to the 55th Cav, the only good thing that happened for the Allies on this long day of war.

Oh no! I don't think an AAR can go any lower than to make a Billy Jack reference.[:D] I worked as an usher in a theater and had to watch the ending of that pig about 60 times....They say that the 70s was the golden age of American cinema, and I truly believe that. Then of course, there was Billy Jack.

[Bullwinkle58]

Oh no! I don't think an AAR can go any lower than to make a Billy Jack reference.[:D] I worked as an usher in a theater and had to watch the ending of that pig about 60 times....They say that the 70s was the golden age of American cinema, and I truly believe that. Then of course, there was Billy Jack.

[8D]

Girl of the Prairie never saw it, so I found it and it's on one of the DVRs right now waiting for her. Maybe this weekend.

OTOH, she never saw "2001: A Space Odessey" either, and that's on the DVR too. Decisions, decisions . . .

[Bullwinkle58]

Cranked up Gus expecting to have a movie to watch full of Allied pain, but no movie. I don't know if that's good or bad.

What to do about 27 LCUs approaching a key base which has no supply? Oofff!

[Bullwinkle58]

March 29, 1942

"Attack! Repeat! Attack!"

When it rains it pours. Almost didn't have time today to worry about that 27-stack coming north. Almost. [8|]

1) Mike's e-mail said he was going to need a bigger stick in the PI, so I knew Japan had not stopped for tea. The defenders are behind Forts 4, but only about 40% had any internal supply at all, and the best had 120. Base supply has been zero for weeks. But there are several major HQs there, 4th Marines, several well-rested if inexperienced PI divisions, and a smattering of tanks and arty. I knew from intel there were significant IJA combat engineers at Clark, and I expected a Shock attack after all the bombing and lack of AA response. But as is his habit Mike is cautious with his men. A good decision? I'm not sure either way to be truthful. The Japanese combined arms distribution is excellent. Perhaps one more infantry division would help, but there's no argument he brought the engineers to the party. However, other than knocking down forts, Japan didn't get the job done on this one. This is going to be the high-water mark for the defense of Bataan I fear, but if it is the troops acquitted themselves very well.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 45642 troops, 472 guns, 446 vehicles, Assault Value = 1545

Defending force 54580 troops, 839 guns, 803 vehicles, Assault Value = 1697

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Japanese adjusted assault: 510

Allied adjusted defense: 1769

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6443 casualties reported
Squads: 38 destroyed, 432 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 12 destroyed, 171 disabled
Guns lost 66 (4 destroyed, 62 disabled)
Vehicles lost 69 (4 destroyed, 65 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
613 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 24 (2 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Vehicles lost 52 (7 destroyed, 45 disabled)

Assaulting units:
9th Infantry Regiment
48th Division
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
80th Infantry Regiment
21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
16th Engineer Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
20th Infantry Regiment
38th Division
16th Recon Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
14th Army
36th Const Co

Defending units:
192nd Tank Battalion
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
Manila Bay Defenses
194th Tank Battalion
71st PA Infantry Division
41st PA Infantry Division
14th PS Engineer Regiment
51st PA Infantry Division
91st PA Infantry Division
11th PA Infantry Division
4th Marine Regiment
21st PA Infantry Division
3rd/12th PA Inf Battalion
31st Infantry Regiment
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
31st PA Infantry Division
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
2nd PA Constabulary Division
Manila USAAF Base Force
Cavite USN Base Force
PAF Aviation
202nd PA Construction Battalion
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
803rd Engineer Aviation Battalion
Provisional GMC Grp
1st PI Base Force
II Philippine Corps
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
Bataan USN Base Force
USAFFE
201st PA Construction Battalion
Far East USAAF
Asiatic Fleet
I Philippine Corps
86th PS Coastal Artillery Battalion
1st USMC AA Battalion
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment

On the theory that the Allies could attack without risking the Forts, and maybe Japan would pause a day to rest from the march, I had ordered a Bombardment attack. This happened after the Japanese, got no counter-battery fire at all, and did nice things for the Allied cause:

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 37099 troops, 782 guns, 315 vehicles, Assault Value = 1600

Defending force 43781 troops, 468 guns, 521 vehicles, Assault Value = 1098

Japanese ground losses:
405 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 29 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

The disablements may cause a pause at Bataan, which is the main focus now. Pinning these units prevents them from heading to Rabaul or Java. Or Singers. I'm not sure after this Allied performance if Mike really understands how flat the defensers are supply-wise. I don't have the next turn, but after the bombardment I wouldn't be surprised to find only 2-3 LCUs with any internal supply at all.

2) Given that Mike had mentioned only the PI in the e-mail I was surprised, and worried, when the screen jumped to Singers and began an attack run there.

In this case, if I may, I do think he made a mistake in not doing a Shock attack. He knows after several attempts now that I am focusing on Forts. He also well knows how much effort the Allies have expended in getting supply into the base. The key to Singers now is Forts. Nothing else. He doesn't have the air force to take supply to zero. He has to knock down the forts and then depend on crushing second phase anti-soft firepower to take out the defenders. Here, despite doing a LOT of casualty damage I can't replace, he failed to hurt the Forts. The Japanese disablements might buy me enough time to get Forts all the way to 4 again, repeating the cycle, potentially into May. I might be dreaming here, but it could happen. [:'(]

Here's the bill:

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 84429 troops, 998 guns, 487 vehicles, Assault Value = 2997

Defending force 44394 troops, 593 guns, 413 vehicles, Assault Value = 1249

Japanese adjusted assault: 2265

Allied adjusted defense: 2909

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6758 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 475 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 89 disabled
Engineers: 66 destroyed, 112 disabled
Guns lost 62 (4 destroyed, 58 disabled)
Vehicles lost 38 (8 destroyed, 30 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2530 casualties reported
Squads: 60 destroyed, 191 disabled
Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 128 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 58 disabled
Guns lost 53 (1 destroyed, 52 disabled)
Vehicles lost 36 (6 destroyed, 30 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
12th Engineer Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
2nd Tank Regiment
5th Division
21st Division
114th Infantry Regiment
56th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
56th Recon Regiment
113th Infantry Regiment
56th Engineer Regiment
4th Division
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
55th Infantry Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
56th Field Artillery Regiment
20th AA Regiment
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
1st RF Gun Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
25th Army
3rd Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
34th Field AA Battalion

Defending units:
5/14th Punjab Battalion
SSVF Brigade
1st Manchester Battalion
2nd Loyal Battalion
27th Australian Brigade
3rd SSVF Battalion
1st Mysore Battalion
1st Hyderabad Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
22nd Australian Brigade
2/17 Dogra Battalion
11th Indian Division
9th Indian Division
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
2nd ISF Base Force
1st ISF Base Force
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
Singapore Base Force
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
110th RAF Base Force
3rd HK&S Light AA Regiment
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
109th RAF Base Force
3rd ISF Base Force
FMSV Brigade
III Indian Corps
Malayan Air Wing
Malaya Army
112th RAF Base Force
111th RAF Base Force
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Fortress
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
109th RN Base Force

3) Hard to compete with those two attacks, but things happened elsewhere.

I'm working on a perhaps wimpy operation around Burma. Might not come off, so I won't go into it now. But Japanese defenses are focused up-country in the big stack (75,000 men plus many AFVs), leaving Pegu, Rangoon, Prome, and Baselin empty or nearly so. The Allies bombed Prome today, more as a probe, and found no CAP, no troops, and no supplies. Hmm.

4) Japan began landing on unoccupied Noemfoor. Lots of these clean-up hexes remaining, and the bonus is gasping for breath. Japan also took another unoccupied mid-PI island I can't name and never could. It's in that group in the middle there. [:)]

5) The mighty RN ASW TF operating up by Singers jump on RO-34 (I think I've "sunk" this guy about five times already) in shallow water and damage the forward tubes. Should be some yard time. No supply ships, not even the FT APD, went at Singers today.

6) Tsyung was bombed several times. This base will shortly be the center of the universe for the Allies. All transports at Ledo (18 planes) are shifted to supplying this outpost; supply levels scream up to 17. I will post a screen shot soon, but essentially half of Japan is coming from the south up the rail line.

T. has a decent Chinese garrison, but not enough. On the yellow road in the high mountains to the NE there is a Chinese stack hovering, which includes the senior Red Army HQ led by General Mao. Ops range of 6. This geometry is a real chess problem, which is a problem because I was never good at chess. My main hope is that T. puts up a decent fight, the remnants fall back, and Japan is forked by either addressing the stack in the mountains (which has a retreat path open all the way back to Chungking), or leaving a substantial portion of the 27 LCUs behind to guard the supply line while the rest moves on to Paoshan, which is stiffer than T.'s defenses. Beyond that is Lashio, already at Forts 4.5 and with 1500 AV in good defense terrain. And beyond THAT is the Mandalay group, with half of China standing around. Essentially my defense is like those bales of hay set out on road-racing courses. Slow down the crash, but let it through to the next set of bales. Good idea? How do I know? I'm making this up as I go. [:'(]

7) Liberators hit Miri Oil for 1 point of damage and one Liberator.

8) 42nd Nav Gd begins landing on Tawi Tawi, the most conceited of all the Tawi islands.

9) The Pearl shuffle: Enterprise wants 51 days of repair time, a lot of it in the yards. I have huge block upgrades coming due on April 1, including almost all of the USN sub fleet. I also have two BBs at Pearl, WVA and Warspite, which need yard time to get healthy enough to flush to the WC or EC. Time to be a manager. I have taken Yorktown and Hornet upgrades for April off the table. Sara and Lex emerge in four days from theirs and I want four decks to address Palmyra and Johnson I. once and for all. Seen yesterday: a TF reading as CVE/AV/AV calling at Palmyra. Got the "carriers sighted" sound effect as well. Japan intends to make my life hard at Palmyra? We'll see about that.

Famous last words? Moose are known for that . . .

[Crackaces]

I know CR has discused that upgrading leaders at Singers is not worth the investment, but my experience has been like yours. Upgrade the leaders and the combat becomes more bloody for the IJA. You pointed out that you received more destroyed sqauds, which are not comming back at Singers vs. a lot more disabled squads that will repair over time ... However, [as you already know] you bought more time at both PI and Singers .. The IJ must be pulling thier hair out by now [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I know CR has discused that upgrading leaders at Singers is not worth the investment, but my experience has been like yours. Upgrade the leaders and the combat becomes more bloody for the IJA. You pointed out that you received more destroyed sqauds, which are not comming back at Singers vs. a lot more disabled squads that will repair over time ... However, [as you already know] you bought more time at both PI and Singers .. The IJ must be pulling thier hair out by now [:D]

The PPs invested in new leaders was well worth it for sure. But the main reasons for this battle are supplies and forts. Nothing beats 'em.

Two days ago I would have thought a win like this would have thrown the game into a new reality. But the stack heading toward Burma has changed my mind. This might be--I don't know what's in it--the first real evidence of a no-HR game coming home to roost. If he has cleaned out Manchuria and added the four free Scen 2 divisions, that stack could be a dozen or more infantry divisions and five or six tank regiments. Plus some HQs and engineers.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I know CR has discused that upgrading leaders at Singers is not worth the investment, but my experience has been like yours. Upgrade the leaders and the combat becomes more bloody for the IJA. You pointed out that you received more destroyed sqauds, which are not comming back at Singers vs. a lot more disabled squads that will repair over time ... However, [as you already know] you bought more time at both PI and Singers .. The IJ must be pulling thier hair out by now [:D]

The PPs invested in new leaders was well worth it for sure. But the main reasons for this battle are supplies and forts. Nothing beats 'em.

Two days ago I would have thought a win like this would have thrown the game into a new reality. But the stack heading toward Burma has changed my mind. This might be--I don't know what's in it--the first real evidence of a no-HR game coming home to roost. If he has cleaned out Manchuria and added the four free Scen 2 divisions, that stack could be a dozen or more infantry divisions and five or six tank regiments. Plus some HQs and engineers.

I have experimented and I think there is a trigger at game turn 800 for Soviet Intervention, and I do not think it tests for garrsioning before that point. So I am thinking that a No-HR strategy might be to empty out Manchuria like you suggest and know that the software is not going to test Soviet Intervention until Feburary 1944. I have not read any AAR or comment that has mentioned otherwise unless the IJ specfically decide to get the Soviets involved. Is that what you are thinking is happening here?

Hmmm.. it might take some ahistorical redistribution of the US Marines to save Burma .. somehow Mandalay has got to get worked into the Marine Corps Hymn .. [8D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have experimented and I think there is a trigger at game turn 800 for Soviet Intervention, and I do not think it tests for garrsioning before that point. So I am thinking that a No-HR strategy might be to empty out Manchuria like you suggest and know that the software is not going to test Soviet Intervention until Feburary 1944. I have not read any AAR or comment that has mentioned otherwise unless the IJ specfically decide to get the Soviets involved. Is that what you are thinking is happening here?

Hmmm.. it might take some ahistorical redistribution of the US Marines to save Burma .. somehow Mandalay has got to get worked into the Marine Corps Hymn .. [8D]

By "clean out" I didn't mean go below 8000. I meant the non-AV stuff, plus the restircted fighting LCUs which don't need PPs to move in a non-HR game.

In AI games I've switched sides and moved a Japanese unit across the border. The Soviets activated immediatley. I have never experimented with just lowering the garrison below the trigger. I've never seen even a hint in the forum that there is a start point for garrison checking. You might want to ask this in the general forum. At minimum you would get some interesting responses. [:)]

[Crackaces]

By "clean out" I didn't mean go below 8000. I meant the non-AV stuff, plus the restircted fighting LCUs which don't need PPs to move in a non-HR game.

In AI games I've switched sides and moved a Japanese unit across the border. The Soviets activated immediatley. I have never experimented with just lowering the garrison below the trigger. I've never seen even a hint in the forum that there is a start point for garrison checking

OK .. now I understand ..

My posting in your AAR was just that I had experimented as the IJ H-H mode .. and N=3 reproduced a trigger on turn 800. This was the same game, but I empited Manchuria on turn 600 and the played until the Soviets were activated. All 3 times on Turn 800 .. bam .. leading me to think the was the first time this is checked in the code .. it could have been just a random event too or embeeded into the particular gane .. [8D] If somebody has seen the Soviets activated sooner without IJ intervention I am sure I will hear about it in your AAR [;)]

[Bullwinkle58]

March 30, 1942

The Day After Yesterday

An important day, even if somewhat a "sweep up." I had no idea what I would find when I dug into the numbers at Singers and Bataan. Moslty not as bad as I feared.

Singers: Supply pulled down to about 7500. Shot one APD north with 180. The base is about 10,000 short of 2x needed to replace (the pools don't support needs regardless of supply) as well as rebuild internal LCU supplies. To address that I reprogram a number of TFs unloading CT-sourced supply at Oosthaven and send them north. I have pumped a lot into southern Sumatra from CT in order to build Palembang back into the 80,000s and to build Oosthaven to over 20,000 so it can become a major air maintenance base for CAP refugees. The port at Oosthaven is still small, so the TFs stay awhile to disgorge. A lot of the xAKs are big though, not the xAKLs I've been expending on runs into Singers. But there are a lot of them, they might survive a low-Oscar swarm, and I can (maybe) jump Singers 10k in a hurry if I risk them. So, I'll risk them. Forts at Singers, despite the battle, go to 64% of 4.

LCU-wise the battle hurt the poor and spared the rich, more or less. The small fighting LCUs got hit hard. Some went from, say, 18 AV to 0, with just a commander and some Support alive. But the Four Bigs, the two Auusie units and the two Indian divisions (one with no actual Indian infantry left alive), took only minor losses. The worst disruption I saw was 13, and most are 3-4. Experience gains were in the 2 range throughout. Four big battles now and there is very good experience at Singers. If I can get Forts to 4 again I think they can survive at least one more non-Shock attack.

Bataan: Forts dropped to 3 here, better than I expected. Internal LCU supplies also better than I thought. The big PI infantry units all have at least a little, and some are still near 100. Thought about it in terms of trade-offs and decided to Bombard again to try to max IJA disruption when they're a couple of hexes from supply dumps at Clark. Got good results:

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 37041 troops, 779 guns, 314 vehicles, Assault Value = 1594

Defending force 43976 troops, 472 guns, 523 vehicles, Assault Value = 1111

Japanese ground losses:
134 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)

All the Bataan defenders can do now is delay. Everything I order is with that in mind.

Elsewhere:

1) Tawi Tawi falls. Landings on Jolo next door.

2) Pompano does not let up. One hits, three dud. A large xAK, it should make port, but some damage is better than four duds.

Sub attack near Sapporo at 119,50

Japanese Ships
xAK Yamazuki Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
PB Aso Maru #7

Allied Ships
SS Pompano

3) Knowing the merchants will be running the gauntlet to Singers over the next days, CAP is moved/maxed at Batavia to repair what can be repaired fast. These will be moved to Singers temporarily to fight low-Oscars; the AA already works over the 2Es pretty well. Significant aviation support is strat moving from Palembang to Oosthaven; right now Oost can't pump out repair like Batavia can.

Additionally, knowing Netties will be involved, 4Es shift from Oil work to Singkawang's air field and do some damage. Won't close it, but might slow down launches.

4) Bombing keeps up at Tsuyung. And two LCUs break free from the huge stack to the south and enter the hex. From many past experiences in China I figure these are armor. Probably two tank regiments, but maybe not. At minimum one regiment though. The base has 20 supply, but a decent, undisrupted stack of infantry and HQs. It has a major HQ in ops range (5, not the 6 I said yesterday.) So what to do? If the Allies wait for the big stack the fight will almost certainly be a loser for them, with a retreat at best. But Japan uses armor in China as shock troops and in a battle with a 27-stack the armor won't muss its hair. Here, they're alone. The Chinese decide to take the swing at a fat pitch and risk a beanball in two days. In for a penny, they go for the Shock. It works well; the 2-stack is not two regiments:

Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 35656 troops, 222 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1276

Defending force 810 troops, 0 guns, 123 vehicles, Assault Value = 71

Allied adjusted assault: 1296

Japanese adjusted defense: 40

Allied assault odds: 32 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 75 (27 destroyed, 48 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
544 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 141 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
19th Chinese Corps
23rd Chinese Corps
26th Chinese Corps
9th Separate Brigade
33rd Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
96th Chinese Corps
2nd War Area
6th Group Army
12th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
13th Tank Regiment
9th Armored Car Co

Interesting data: the bolded (-) factors seen above for Japan. Especially supply.
This was a good day at this base, but worse is coming. The Chinese supply situation here is beyond terrible and can't be fixed now. Que sera sera.

[V I Lenin]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Interesting data: the bolded (-) factors seen above for Japan. Especially supply.
This was a good day at this base, but worse is coming. The Chinese supply situation here is beyond terrible and can't be fixed now. Que sera sera.

Absolutely not true!

This is a point that does not seem to register with anyone - supply draw inside bases does not work the same as supply draw outside bases. Your army at Tsuyung are limited to a max supply volume (as indicated by number on base screen) modified by supply weight in two very important ways.

Imagining that Tsuyung can draw 900 supplies per 'tick' (for sake of argument) and trying to draw supplies from Mandalay (you gave up Rangoon, yes?)

900 x 0.55 [spoilage for 3 hexes minor rail + 8 hexes minor road is 45%] = 495 - this is your actual 'per tick' supply received at the base, though 900 will be lost from Mandalay to do it.

Then, your weekly supply received will be either 495 x 2 or 495 x 4 (I cannot remember where the cutoff point is between the supply movement process running 2 or 4 times a week - I think it is over 70 = 4 and under 70 = 2, but not certain; I do remember than under 30 no supply flows at all - this means that if you lose Prome Tsuyung cannot draw from Akyab, Ramree, India etc - it has to draw from intermediate bases, all of which have limits and so are likely to cause big problems). So you are operating on max 1000t per week INSIDE TSUYUNG BASE.

OUTSIDE the base it is totally different IF you have supplies available to send out. LCUs do not have supply limits!, and they also go further to get their supplies - as long as spoilage would be less than 100% they will draw. This means that units not in a base

- Can draw more supplies (as much as they need, but do it less often at long range - often only 1 time per week)
- Can draw supplies from further

So, as long as you have supplies to send out, you can support units. There is danger here that if they are peacefully in a hex and enemy suddenly arrives and starts bombarding, it may take them 6 or 7 days to replenish their supply (so risk of running out - but only for first time, since after that they will up their demand to include resisting bombardment/counterfire) - but that can be mitigated easily with reserve forces.

From hex northwest of Tsuyung you can (just, just - 98% spoilage) draw from Imphal - but Japanese have already made it into jungle mountains, so damage is done; there is nothing useful at Tsuyung, so sensible thing to do is to retreat to hex northeast of Paoshan (66,44); from there units can if nothing else draw from Imphal at 'only' 88% spoilage and also from Silchar, which is very easy to supply due to the railway. In Burma, if you have units that do not need to be in bases, take them out and turn supply stockpiling on! In the countryside they can do their own supply and bases can build up to support aircraft, AA guns.

I hope that is making sense to you - ask if not! Using this you can support armies in Burma - it is very inefficient with very, very high supply wastage, but it can be done. Obviously closer you get to India = less wastage.