The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

6/9/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  Still unusually quiet, though recon showing a big build up of enemy aircraft at Rangoon (apparently Mandaly is the only other field John has operational in Burma).  On the basis that he's had enough time to observe, orient, decide, and implement a plan, my amphibious ships and escorts will retire, mainly to Chittagagong, where the Allies can efficient fast transport.  Another decision is what to do with my carriers.  They are kind of hemmed in and might get trapped if John sends the full KB this way, but the Allies also have big airfields and lots of fighters.  I don't want to siphon off fighters to provide cover somewhere distant, like Colombo, so I may keep my carriers at Calcutta.  Need to think that over, though, as enemy recon would make that uncomfortable.
 
China:  The Chinese withdrawal continues in good order.  I'm not sure if John is honoring his previously announced "I'm coming no further" vow or if he's accepted my "don't stand down" suggestion.  Either way the Chinese are fine.
 
Australia:  6th Aussie Cav. has finished loading.  I'm debating whether to swing out wide to try to sneak up on Exmouth or, alternatively, to take a direct route and have my carriers, en route, bomb the Japanese airfield at Carnavon.  My experience with SBDs bombing airfield hasn't been that good, but shutting down the field would help.  4EB and perhaps some bombardment runs could help.
 
SoPac:  Another supply xAK is two days away from Luganville.  Noumea didn't fall today despite a deliberate attack, but will tomorrow.
 
CenPac:  Two BBs bombard Makin and one branch of the KB sends strike aircraft against the base.  Two of the three APs involved in the invasion made it back to Pearl with the third two days out.  All DMs are also back.
 
NoPac:  No sign of the pending Akutan invasion.  CV Wasp will arrive in less than two weeks.  I may detail her and BB North Carolina to NoPac.  We'll see.
 
 

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/9/42

CenPac:  Two BBs bombard Makin and one branch of the KB sends strike aircraft against the base.  Two of the three APs involved in the invasion made it back to Pearl with the third two days out.  All DMs are also back.

What kind of effect is there from the bombardment?

[Canoerebel]

This particular bombardment (by Hiei and Kirishima, which are KB darlings, right?) had little impact:

Night Naval bombardment of Makin at 136,125

Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima
     BB Hiei

Allied ground losses:
     20 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Port hits 6
Port supply hits 3

BB Kirishima firing at Makin
BB Hiei firing at 21st Infantry Regiment

[paullus99]

Become a huge thorn is his side here - the more supply and forts you can build, the worse off it will be for him when he comes back.....lol

[Miller]

The Allies can really pour the troops into Burma relatively early in the game. Japan's best hope of stopping any advance there is to knock out most of China ASAP and then send the bulk of the then redundant Divs to Rangoon for redeployment. However judging by his progress in China he will not be in a position to do that for a looong time, if ever.

[Canoerebel]

6/10/42
 
Cocos Island:  SigInt that 5th Division is posted here.  Wow, I'm glad I scrubbed that invasion.  This is important news, because it helps me account for another of John's division.  This was one of the conquerors of Port Blair and I was sure it would go to Burma, but apparently only 33rd went of that group (and I had SigInt that 4th Div. was inbound).  He's got so many spread out so far that the chances of him invading India are essentially nil.  Therefore, I am moving additional units forward - some to Akyab in preparation for a march down the road to Prome.  I'd buy a couple of Indian divisions, but I think I'm best served saving them to buy 41st USA Div. after it reaches Capetown.  That unit will be really tough on Japan.
 
Bay of Bengal:  Quiet today.  Cox's Bazaar airfield to level one.
 
China:  Until something major develops, I'll shorthand this "situation good," meaning that the Chinese withdrawl and building of the second MLR is going smoothly with no major threats posed by Japan.
 
NoPac:  Still no sign of that SigInt-telegraphed move on Akutan.
 
West Coast:  A big convoy about to depart LA carrying reinforcements to Pearl Harbor.
 
CenPac:  Supply is already running low at Makin and Tarawa due to continued bombings and bombardments (two more BBs - Haruna and Kongo - show up at Tarawa today.  I'm going to have real problems supplying these islands in the face of a full commitment by John, but a full commitment is worth whatever becomes of my garrisons.  I'll try to wedge some stuff in, but I'm not optimistic.
 
Australia:  However, I think the situation in the Pacific plus the Allied carries in Bay of Bengal have John's full attention.  This may help greatly with the invasion of Exmouth, which doesn't have an airfield.  Neither does Port Headland.  The two threats are Carnavon (level five) and Corunna Downs (level three).  The former is the greater threat.  I will bombard and use 4EB from Geraldton and Kalgoorlie.  I may also use my SBDs via carrier strike.  I have an army moving on Carnavon, but I don't think it makes it prior to D-Day (if it did, and if it posed a real threat to the base, John might have to withdraw aircraft to avoid losing them if the base fell).  Whatever happens at Exmouth, the overland move on Carnavon is intended to take the base. I'll have something like 750 AV included a good tank unit.

[Cribtop]

Will the overland army at least get adjacent (and thus visible to) Carnarvon before D-Day? If not, can you order the armored unit to speed ahead alone? The appearance of an adjacent unit could provide John with a mental explanation for why you're 4E bombing Carnarvon other than "Hey, CR is about to mount an amphib Op in Northern Oz!"

This may be minor as he probably doesn't have time to react all the way back from the Gilberts, but every little thing helps.

[Canoerebel]

I've thunk it and thunk it and thunk it over.  Conclusions:

1.  KB way out of position; no chance over intervention except by small carrier force.
2.  A total sneak play probably gets sighted by long-range patrols two or three days out so that Carnavon gets filled with Netties.  So this isn't the best option.
3.  Try to sneak my carriers close to orchestrate a big airfield raid by naval and LB air time to coincide or just precede naval bombardment by what's on hand.  This is probably my preferred option.
4.  No sneak naval attack but hope to close the field by LBA and bombardments.  This isn't likely to succeed, so this ins't a good option.

Under option three, the presence of my ground troops won't be relevant one way or the other.  They marching along and it's possible my advanced units - a tanks unit and a US Army motorized brigade - could reach the adjacent hex.  But that's fine, I think.

I don't think John is monitoring the advance by my ground units (no harrassing bombing raids; no recon). That's great, because it suggests he might not be thinking "Allies are moving on Carnavon."

[Cribtop]

Yeah, if you are bringing in the CVs plus a bombardment plus 4Es, that is probably the safest Netty reduction option available. However, once you show the CVs, you are correct that the time for fancy misdirection here is over. It would still be good for the armor to show up adjacent for some last minute confusion in John's mind, but once he sees CVs, the jig is up.

Conversely, I'd work to get Hornet spotted again by patrol aircraft just before this whole thing goes off. Never hurts to have him thinking your CVs are somewhere else just before the hammer falls.

[Canoerebel]

6/11/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  Enemy subs pick off two xAK at Akyab.  The airfield at Rangoon is filling up but isn't actively on the offensive yet.  Engineers arrive at Akyab to expedite base building.  The Allies have so many troops and big airfields in proxmity to Ramree, Akyab and the line of jungle hexes that a successful Japanese counterattack is quite unlikely.  I think John will have to be satisfied with trying to create an MLR that can hold, though, knowing him, he may take a crack at Ramree, possibly by land.
 
Australia:  The amphibious TF with 6th Aus. Cav. is about 26 hexes south of Exmouth (between Perth and Albany), pretty close to the coast.  It'll go strait in.  The carriers are due west (true) of Perth and will time things with a bombardment TF to hit Carnavon ahead of the invasion TF.  No signs of detection or concern in this region. 
 
SoPac:  The Japanese take Noumea and sink an xAKL bringing supply into Luganville.
 
CenPac:  Both elements of the KB are at Jaluit and a TF of some sort is at Tabituea, almost certainly bringing in reinforcements.  Subs at Pearl will take supply to Tarawa.  I'll continue to work the angle, but mainly I'll keep any eye on the KB.  If it stays, the door is closed but at a good price.  If the KB departs, I'll work harder.
 
NoPac:  Large enemy sweep of Cold Bay, which is good news as its yet another active front.
 
After Oz:  If the Exmouth and Carnavon operation goes well, the Allies have four choices in deploying carriers, as follows:  (1) stick at Oz to help with a move on Port Headland and Broome (this will be expected by John, so I probably won't do it); (2) move to the Bay of Bengal to help with a move on Moulmein (that would put all my carriers in one corner of the map and is probably going to far too early); (3) move to eastern Oz to support a move somewhere along the rim of the Coral Sea - Milne Bay, New Caledonia, etc. (this is more feasible if the KB remains away); (4) move into CenPac to support/contest the Gilberts area (I don't want to take on the concentrated might of the KB, so unlikely unless a window of opportunity opens).

[Canoerebel]

6/12/42

Pacific: Very robust enemy activity. Continued BB bombardments to Tarawa and Luganville with CAs bombarding Makin. KB remains at Jaluit with committed air strikes vs. the Tarawa and Makin. Betties based at Malolap flying raids. Lots of enemy shipping at Tabiteua. SigInt that 7th Div. is now bound for Adak (either instead of Akutan or on the way).

Australia: These are all good signs as the Alled moves on Carnavon and Exmouth near the tipping point. Still no signs of detection, though a raid by two Emilys vs. shipping at Perth may draw John's attention. Carrier and bombardment TF raids will commence at Carnavon in three days (or, if any ships detected tomorrow, then in two days). Advance Allied ground units might be four days out of Carnavon. Amphibious TF is due west of Perth and perhaps four to five days from Exmouth. On the assumption that John might remain committed in the Gilberts for an unhealthy amount of time, I'm bringing forward new units to Perth that would handle an invasion of Port Headland, Broome, etc.

Bay of Bengal: Still no concerted offensive action by the Japanese. The second Aussie division bound for the front line of jungle hexes in Burma is in place.

China: Lookin' good.

[Canoerebel]

I'm thinkin' something(s) big is(are) in the works.  John's turns are taking quite a bit of time, his AAR activity is way off, and there's no chatter in here.  The quiet before the storm?

[Chickenboy]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm thinkin' something(s) big is(are) in the works.  John's turns are taking quite a bit of time, his AAR activity is way off, and there's no chatter in here.  The quiet before the storm?

I'm sure it must be something like that...unless he is putting in new quarter rounds over the new tiles.

[Cribtop]

Perhaps, but anything big would have to come in SOPAC/SWPAC given KB's position and his commitment of troops to Noumea. And anything big there probably helps you more than it hurts you.

PS I guess he could try something in NOPAC, but this would require him to risk exposure to your CVs (he doesn't know they are near Perth) and would not be decisive. Plus, given your attention to garrisons up there, it probably wouldn't even be successful.

[Canoerebel]

6/13/42
 
Australia:  Two Allied ground units arrive in the hex adjacent to Carnavon and enemy patrols sight my amphibous TF and the combat TF well offshore (but not the carriers, as best I can tell).  I'm assuming John will load up Carnavon's airfield and I'll try to counter.  My carriers will move to a range of six or seven hexes with SBDs and one Avenger squadron set to naval strike alternate ground strike or pure ground strike.  4EB at Kalgoorlie and a mix of dive bombers and 2EB at Perth and Esperance will join in.  I don't think my combat TF can hit the port tomorrow, but it will loiter nearby, serving as bait more than anything (since it includes Portland and Salt Lake City, it's no pushover).  John may well think this is a move just on Carnavon, though I don't think that changes the configuration of his defenses any (unless he's willing to surrender Carnavon without a big fight but would give a bigger fight for Exmouth, which is possible but not likely).  My amphibious TF is 12 hexes south of Exmouth.  D-Day in three days.

Bay of Bengal:  Still no major response.  Allies ships continue to unload suppy and troops at Akyab.  Several transport and fast transport TFs are inbound to Ramree.  A stout armored unit will reach the front line in the jungle in one or two days.  I may use it to probe forward a bit, but I need to think on that.  An Indian division is departing Chittagong to march to Akyab.  When I buy this unit in a month or so, it will move down the coastal road in support of Ramree.

China:  Looking good.

NoPac:  SigInt that 7th Div. is prepping for Akutan.  Wasp arrives in a week.  I may well send her to NoPac, where she could be of use as long as the main KB is far away.

Pacific:  More heavy attention to the Gilberts.  John really is doing a robust job in marshalling his forces and may well retake the islands, but two things come to mind:  (1) how easily this could have been avoided had he just had one patrol squadron operating here, (2) the opportunity costs he's paying for this concentration (and diversion) of force.  (Thinking this way brings comfort as I survey the might of the concentrated Japanese navy.)

Air War:  The Allies are nearly 1,000 planes ahead in the air war now.  It's really hard to evaluate the air war, but the Allies have done well throughout the game.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
(he doesn't know they are near Perth)

[:-][:-] Watch the OPSEC, Cribtop...Was this what you were trying to say?

[Cribtop]

Good point - let me clarify that I am not reading John's AAR. My point was only that, based on info CR has provided in this AAR, I deduce that John has no way to know where his CVs are. In other words, readers of this AAR know a move by John up north has no Carrier risk, but HE doesn't know that.

[Canoerebel]

That's the way I took your comment, Cribtop.
 
John may have guessed now that my carriers are near Perth since they didn't participate in or react to the Gilberts situations and given the sudden activity near Carnavon.  That's one reason I'm so glad to see many Bettys at work in the Gilberts.

[Cribtop]

I suspect your moves on multiple fronts are giving John fits. To that end, I would consider the Burma armored probe at the right time (namely just prior to your next big move somewhere else). John will be expecting an offensive move in Burma and will assign great weight to such a probe. Same with Pt. Hedland/Broome. He will expect this to be the follow on to Carnarvon/Exmouth (assuming you prevail there), so a fake invasion task force popping up at the right time should have a disproportionate impact.