No fleet, no problem...

[Q-Ball]

Actually, I think CV losses are less of a problem than the cruisers. 4 CVs isn't wonderful, but by early 1944 you won't miss them much at all. The cruisers are a different story though; I think you'll miss them all the way until 1945.

The BBs will be very helpful though; it's fortunate he didn't lose too many of those

[modrow]

Nemo,

welcome back. Good to see you have returned where you belong. But I'll postpone reading this AAR, as I decided to join the other camp. Not that I'll contribute anything useful... just wisdom of the crowds... or bloodlust from the peanut gallery [;)]

Have fun and get immersed once more in this wonderful parallel world.

Hartwig

[modrow]

P.S: Did you notice KI-666 is now available in stock scenarios now ?

Just kidding [;)]

[Olorin]

Obviously I will be following. Good to have you back Nemo.

Since the Japanese are about to be thrown into the sea in Northern Oz and since you still hold Horn Island and Perth, I am willing to bet that we will soon see you pushing into Eastern DEI. No fleet required, lots of dot bases still in allied hands. Together with land offensives in Burma and China and possible opportunistic invasions in (north?) Pacific, this course of action seems to me quite promising. I could be wrong of course

However, this assumes that your opponent is willing to switch to the defensive. Why would he do that? He has total carrier supremacy and can continue his advance in the Pacific and at the same time raid your SLOCs at will. You said you are going to risk the NZ-Oz route with your remaining tankers/transports. That's a big risk, imho. The space between Pago-Pago and the edge of the map is not that big, Japan can just park a few carriers+cruisers+destroyers+submarines there and cut you off completely (save the off-map route of course).

[Canoerebel]

I am very thankful that Nemo's keeping an AAR (and I hope Damian will continue his).  Mirror AARs are rare.  Mirror AARs against two experienced and well-regarded players rarer.  What a treat to have this (these?) to feast on!

[JocMeister]

This I will follow! (And take lots and lots of notes! [:D])

[floydg]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Actually, I think CV losses are less of a problem than the cruisers. 4 CVs isn't wonderful, but by early 1944 you won't miss them much at all. The cruisers are a different story though; I think you'll miss them all the way until 1945.

The BBs will be very helpful though; it's fortunate he didn't lose too many of those

Yeah, there was a bit of a disaster concerning the CA's. I had about a dozen CA/CL/CLAA attempting to break up an invasion of Port Moresby. Didn't see the KB coming. I believe I was able to save just two cruisers.

Since Damian only sunk one BB on Day 1, I was able to repair a good number. Four are "waiting" in western Oz.

[bigred]

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

P.S: Did you notice KI-666 is now available in stock scenarios now ?

Just kidding [;)]

[:D][:D]

[Elladan]

Ah, another AAR by Master Nemo, truly excellent news
[makes himself comfy on a sofa and fetches a notepad]

Do you think you will be able to hold onto Kuriles? That would be an excellent platform for keeping your opponent focused while staging an invasion elsewhere if nothing else.

[witpqs]

A couple of notes for you:

- I hope you are using the most recent Beta. It is the least bug free and has the most enhancements. You will find that the player effort required to move pilots around (effort spent on pilot training) is massively reduced.

- Non-base hex invasions are fine. There have been no code changes AFAIK, but it was clarified by multiple developers in a thread discussion that non-base hex invasions were fully accounted for in the code. For one thing, some hexes do not allow invasions in their terrain code. If you have a look at the pwhex editor (I always forget who wrote that nice tool) you will see there is a code for that, the point being that a map or scenario designer can declare certain coastal hexes as not supporting invasions (00 = normal, 01 = prohibited). IIRC there are indeed some hexes on the map which have been defined as 'no invasion'. Maybe the swamp hexes near Rangoon? I don't recall.

Also, if you make non-base hex invasions then your troops suffer disruption, most especially in the face of opposition. The point is, it is taken into account and need not be HR'd against.

[Nemo121]

I'm going to go into my plans for each theatre in series over the next few days and posts. I'll post the updates for a theatre as I look at the theatre and finish giving my orders. Since that'll take several days the updates will take several days. At the end of that time a full account of the plan should be present and the turn should be ready to send to Damian.

Basic strategic plan:
1. Hold the Kuriles if at all possible through aggressive, resupply efforts utilising the majority of the SS fleet and whatever heavy bombers, medium bombers, floatplanes and transports are available. Expand the landings if at all possible through invading additional islands and provide a focus for Japanese efforts which would be sub-optimal strategically. Build up the Aleutians. Only Dutch Harbour and Attu are occupied. Right now the correct Japanese counter to the invasions of the Kuriles is to ignore the efforts I make to supply the Kuriles from Attu and, instead, mount amphibious invasions of the Aleutians ( which are unoccupied save for Attu). It'd be the far, far cheaper option, it would gain strategic depth and it would isolate Attu --- and if you isolate the base feeding your isolated bases you, in the end, win back the isolated bases for certain. I'm rushing troops to the Aleutians as a result so that I can garrison all these islands. They are undeveloped so to speed unloading and fortification I'm shipping my troops to my own bases in amphibious TFs. I'll lose troops unloading but I'll get them ashore quicker ( given the lack of ports ).

In the longer term I'd like to push in to threaten Hokkaido, pin ground forces and attrit his air force obviously.


2. Pacific
The Pacific is a ghost theatre. There are only about 3 islands ( including Midway ) between Hawaii and New Zealand which have any reasonable garrison on them. The IJN could push through and take everything short of Hawaii with ease if it wanted. Ideally I'd like them to try since any fight in this region would be at the end of a hugely long and expensive to maintain supply line.

I think Damian hasn't taken whatever is left to me because he doesn't want it. I'll wait a fortnight and if he isn't probing aggressively forward in this region it'll be a sign that he's taken what he wants and is either:
a) settling in to fortify or
b) pulling back to spare his logistics and leaving some islands as a buffer zone - if this is the case then I'll advance aggressively ASAP.


3. Oz
Well I don't have the navy to make the leap to Port Moresby or Noumea/Guadalcanal so I'm stuck with trying the western side of PNG via Darwin. The Japanese currently still own Darwin but are in the process of being pushed out by Australian ground forces. By the time they are pushed out I plan to have the naval forces in theatre to push north-eastward through the small island chains towards Davao, closing off the Celebes sea route for oil etc to Japan.

The threat to strategic oil assets will pin major IJA, IJAAF and IJNAF assets in place along Java, southern Borneo etc and allow me access to attrit them under favourable conditions. The requirement to garrison the Phillipines will also act to pin major IJA formations in place in the southern and northern Phillipines.


4. Burma
Ramree seems like a pretty nice place to jump to from Akyab ( I can benefit from LRCAP while I'm establishing a base ) and if I can move rapidly out from Ramree, across the swamps into the Burma mainland proper I can pose a significant threat of cutting off all IJA formations north of Ramree.

I expect that a combination of forces at Ramree pushing on Rangoon and threatening to unleash tanks across the good tank country in central Burma, behind the northern Burma IJA lines should cause Damian to pull back from Northern Burma, opening the road to China at relatively little cost.

From this position I'll just continue to threaten a littoral amphibious campaign down the Western flank of Thailand/Malaysia or the eastern flank of northern Java modeled very much along the lines of what the Soviets were planning along the Norwegian coast if the cold war ever turned hot.

Ideally over time I'll be able to push through into Thailand, attriting his army and cutting off overland routes from Singapore to China. Long term goals will be:
1. to capture Singapore and enable the RN to gain access to the Oil routes to Japan - as well as allowing the RN to continue its littoral amphibious campaign through Thailand and along the southern Chinese coast to Hengchow.
2. to push east from Thailand into China(supported by the RN in the littoral amphibious role as outlined above ), creating improved overland access into China which will allow sufficient supply to flow to enable the basing of Allied bombers into the Hengchow region ( basically, anything coastal in southern or eastern China ).
3. utilising bombers to interdict the oil routes flowing north of the Phillipines.


Overall the moves from Oz and from Burma will aim to create two semi-envelopments.
1. The short pincers at the capital of Thailand projecting airpower into the seas north of Borneo and whatever bases I take which project air power into the seas south of Borneo. This will discomfit but not stop oil flow.
2. The long pincers will project into the Hengchow region cutting off the oil flow north of the Phillipines and into the Davao region, cutting off oil flow south of the Phillipines.


5. China
The Chinese will simply make as much trouble as their supplies allow in an effort to pin and attrit the Japanese while building experience and AV. The only absolutely crucial areas will be:
a. Keeping Hengchow in Chinese hands ( which will be difficult if it appears to be a threat, which is why I won't use it for pinprick raids... I don't want to draw attention to it until it can host significant aerial forces )
b) Keeping Chinese troops on the Vietnamese border so as to help the British in their push eastwards from Thailand.

In the long term the Chinese and British would be seeking to push into Kwantung and down into Korea in order to provide two directions from which the final amphibious invasion could be launched.... I don't expect it to come to that though as I'm aiming at his economy mainly with the various efforts to prevent oil being transported home combined with efforts to attrit his forces such that he cannot meet all his commitments.


I think that it'll take 12 to 18 months to push through to Shanghai from the current positions on the Indian border so that's the current maximum duration I see before it is clear this game is over competitively. Economic collapse etc may hasten this date significantly and obviously I'll be trying for that also.


I'm considering whether or not I'll set myself the task of playing the game without using CVs for combat operations at all. That would mean using them to transport planes was fine but they couldn't fly any missions at all. I may compromise and just allow them to fly defensive missions ( CAP ). That would allow them to cover amphibious invasions in 1943... I'm undecided though, it seems like a bit of an easy option to allow myself the use of CVs defensively. It'd be more of a challenge to just forbid their offensive or defensive use at all and focus on winning this one without the use of any CVs in a combat role from this moment forward. I'll think about it.... Obviously I wouldn't say this to Damian as he is dangerous enough as it is. It'd just be something to increase the challenge for myself.

[Nemo121]

witpqs,

Ah, thanks, that clarifies a lot. As far as I know we're using the latest beta + some experimental beta. I just agreed with whatever Damian wanted to use since I'm comfortable he just wants to test at the bleeding edge and not gain one-sided advantage.

Olorin,
I don't think Damian will switch to the defensive. The last time he gave me 1 week's grace when I took over a PBEM I invaded Burma and started a chain reaction which moved him from thinking about how he would capture India to bemoaning his broken air force within about 3 months of gametime.

No, he will keep the pressure on everywhere possible - except maybe in the Pacific where his SLOCs are just too extended IMO.

He can TRY to impose his will here and a simple accounting of assets would convince you that he should succeed in whatever he tries. My view, however, is that initiative is often a matter of opinion and less to do with what is than what we fear to be. I'm willing to bet that in a test of wills Damian will blink first irrespective of the objective reality of the situation.

It'll be interesting, to me, to see whether he bases his decisions on actual assessed risk and situation or on his fears and projections.

[Nemo121]

Well I lost the will to live after sorting out CONUSA and the north Pacific ( and a little bit of India ) so I just sent the turn off.

Actions:
1. Forces in the north pacific are running like hell. My CVs are within 8 hexes of his so I figure if I run for Dutch Harbour he'll sprint east also and nail me. Fuel is also low so my CVs at sprint have a max range of about 20 hexes and Dutch Harbour is exactly 20 hexes away. So if I sprinted east my CVs would be stuck with no fuel at Dutch Harbour and easy pickings. Sooooo I can't run away. Instead I'm sending a few things east to make it look like I'm heading that way and sending all my most valuable shipping at cruise speed north towards the Pole. My plan is to hide out there around Nome in the bad weather for a few days before cruising south-eastwards once KB retires.

I don't have strength, speed won't work, I don't have endurance but I do have guile. Let's see if that's enough to save the 2 CVs and pretty much the rest of the surviving USN which Damian has trapped in the north.


2. Some ground attacks in Oz to see what I'm facing as well as some recon to get a sense of what lies in my path on the way to Darwin.

3. Lots of loading of amphibious TFs in India. I've also spent 4,000 PPs buying units out of India so that I can have some mass behind this initial punch.

4. Bombardment attacks and bombing raids in China to try to get a sense of the enemy's strengths. Once i know where he's strong I can focus on hitting him where he isn't and threatening to dislocate his strength.


So tomorrow should see heavy USN losses either way (Far too many damaged and out of fuel ships litter the seas in the north) but a better sense of the land war situation elsewhere.

[JocMeister]

I´ll keep my fingers crossed for the CVs! [:)]

[Nemo121]

Well the CVs survived as did most of the other shipping. I lost a CA and DD to flooding from previous damage but everything else survived. Some of my SAG TFs managed to intercept some of KB's TFs in night-time surface action but while the USN DDs traded shots with IJN BBs, CAs, DDs and even CV surface armament neither side hit the other. I'm happy though since I feel that these surface actions will help prevent Damian from sprinting eastward towards Dutch Harbour.

I thought Damian would attack Attu Island so I moved every fighter I had in range into the island ( all 66 of them ) and waited. Sure enough a nice manageable strike of about 75 IJNAAF aircraft ( 30+ zeroes and 20+ Kates plus 20 or so Vals ) came in. My fighters were a mix of (mostly) P-40Es, a dozen P-38Es, F4F3s and F4F4s and even some Kittyhawks from Canada and due to superior positioning and the fact that the Zeroes were escorting managed to down 40 enemy planes, comprising about 18 Zeroes and 10 or so each of Kates and Vals. The remaining Vals and Kates hit nothing.

I lost 1 P40E in return. So 40:1, not a bad exchange rate, especially as I'm killing the IJNAFs best aviators.


Attu is currently only a Level 2 airfield held by 1 Regt of troops. There are NO troops at all ( not even construction troops ) anywhere between Attu Island and Dutch Harbour and I'm intensely worried Damian will just land on those and isolate Attu. Therefore I've ordered a lot of emergency loading of convoys in CONUSA and PH in spite of the fact that I have VERY few xAPs and relatively few xAKs left. Altogether I currently have about 25,000 men and slightly over 90,000 tons of supplies heading for the Aleutians. My plan is to occupy each of the islands there and build them up to support supply airlift and SLOC protection missions. Attu will be built up to support as many transports as possible flying supplies in plus APDs and DDs operating in FT TFs.

I've also gone through CONUSA creating a pilot training programme. The USAAF, USN and USMC reserves comprised less than 100 properly trained pilots in total. I've graduated the trained ones into frontline squadrons and rotated the partly trained ones into training squadrons. I've also designated every squadron not on the front lines for training purposes. This hadn't previously been done.

E.g. In the Eastern US there were 2 P-39 squadrons and 4 squadrons of B-18s with 2 planes each. Each of the B-18 squadrons had just two pilots and those pilots weren't training. I filled each squadron with replacements up to the max of 25 pilots and began training. End result, in 2 months time I'll have 100 fully trained bomber pilots with ground bombing skill of 70 to send to the front. This was repeated in every city in CONUSA. I don't think there was a single squadron filled out with pilots and training. I've filled them all out with hundreds of pilots and set them all to training.

Any squadrons which weren't restricted are making their way to the Aleutians via Canada. I'm using several Stranraer and Kingfisher units to provide heavy ASW protection along the portion of coast from Vancouver to Prince Rupert as I'm planning to ship all the supplies, troops etc to the Aleutians via Prince Rupert ( as that's the shortest SLOC there ). Ground units are already making their way north using the railways. Escorts, support ships etc are all making for Vancouver and Prince Rupert so that I can match escorts with transports and get a more rational escort system than was previously apparent.

Today I will begin flying supplies into the Kuriles. I only have 30 planes tasked to the mission now but that'll rise to 300+ per day over the next week. Today these planes should fly 66 tons of supplies in. SST Argonaut is one day away with some 72 tons of supplies and the first of my fleet boats is loading up on supplies ( 24 tons per fleet boat with 25 boats tasked to the mission should yield a total of 600 tons per submarine supply run... not all the subs are currently in place but they're on their way to the theatre and will be in action soon enough.

My plan is to create a sea bridge delivering 600 tons per week and an air bridge delivering 3,600 tons per week. In total that should allow me to support both of the islands taken in the Kuriles.

I sent a DD into Hakodate overnight where it bagged a PB and several LBs. This was a DD which was some 500 miles west of KB and so didn't have the option of sprinting east to escape. Since its death was assured I tried to gain something for its loss. It survived without a scratch and so will return to my holdings in the Kuriles from where it will raid again once fuel and targets appear.


Central and Southern Pacific:
Well there's very little here and likely to be very little here until I actually stabilise the situation in the north, which is critical. If Damian pushes he'll take whatever he wants and I'll have to use the


Oz:
LOTS of troops are just sitting around in the south and east guarding against invasion. My preference is to use them offensively to make Damian fear invasion. Consequently they are all marching north to Darwin to push the Japanese out. They will then form the nucleus of my forces pushing into northern PNG and the soft underbelly of the Phillipines.


China:
I thin I've found a weak spot at the junction of the Japanese northern and southern forces. The position here appears largely stalemated but by accepting weakness through reducing my defences along two major axes below the level that can hold I can concentrate sufficient mass to be able to act offensively. If Damian notices and exploits the weakness before I strike then I'll have to waste this offensive force in holding his attacks - but will lose ground and position. If Damian doesn't notice in time and I land my blow first then he'll have to fritter away his concentration of mass in reacting to mine. It is a risk but not a gamble.


Burma:
Approximately 40,000 men are currently loaded on ships and making their way to a jumping off point near Akyab. I plan to land them at Ramree ASAP and then bring in as large a force as possible as rapidly as possible by shuttling my forces back and forth to Calcutta and Akyab where, again, there appear to be huge concentrations of force deployed into defensive positions. I count some 4,000 AV available in India. Much of this is restricted but I believe 2,000 AV can be freed for offensive work fairly rapidly. The vast majority will go via Ramree while a smaller portion will move across the land border from India I'll post a map of Burma to show just how I plan to do this but basically my concept is to land at Ramree and make a major show of pushing along the trails from Ramree inland whilst also making a show of pushing south from Akyab along the trails to link up with Ramree. This will draw a strong Japanese response with, ideally, two or more divisions opposing this thrust. Then I'll land at the non-base hex 46 miles south of Ramree with infantry to guard the lines of supply into the NEXT hex south--- a lovely open terrain hex just ideal for the amphibious landing and unleashing of a rapid Operational Manoeuvre Group comprised of 600+ AV of tanks and mechanised troops into the enemy's operational depth, seeking to move inland to take the Japanese base 138 miles away.

The beauty of this is that it doesn't rely on my ground forces to blow a hole in the IJA land in Burma ( which can be difficult in jungle terrain ) whilst also solving the problem of how to supply a non-base hex landing. It also allows me to salvage an operational victory if the Operational Manoeuvre Group is defeated in its strategic objective ( the drive on Prome ). How? Simple, if it cannot take Prome by itself it will simply move north-eastward instead, cutting off whatever IJA divisions are facing off against my Ramree invasion. This will force them to retreat out of the jungle due to the dislocation of their lines of supply and will force Japan to cede me coastal Burma, creating a new defensive line along the north-south river running through Central Burma.

That new defensive line will lie in open terrain, the sort of terrain a tank-heavy army with superior artillery support dreams of. So, even the OMG's strategic failure ( in acute terms ) gains an operational victory which sets the stage for a slightly slower but still decisive strategic victory ( cutting across the river and racing eastward to isolate any IJA forces in northern Burma - since Damian is too good a player to risk that he will withdraw from northern Burma instead. If he does this I win back 210 Oil centres and deliver a crippling blow to the Japanese economy.

So, really, so long as the Ramree landing holds it is a win/win/win position for me where even failure should be able to be turned into the foundation of longer term victory. Plus its a nice plan which utilises manoeuvre to draw the enemy into a position whereby they expose their flank and allow an OMG to be launched into their operational depth. Its a nice, simple plan which relies on cunning more than force and that's always more satisfying.

We'll soon see how it works out. I'd say it'll be about a week before all of my forces are ready.

[Nemo121]

I should also mention that in order to protect Attu from him getting overly frisky I took every ACM in the place as well as a few CMs which were being used to escort supply convoys etc and have dumped their mines at Attu. Right now Attu has about 280 mines protecting it. It should be up to 400-500 mines in a week. If he tries to bombard or invade it that should help significantly. Well, that and the fact that I used my entire allocation of PT boats to create about 20 of them at Attu last turn [8D]... it is, after all, the crucial spot on the entire map right now.

[Captain Cruft]

A map or two would be nice ...

[Nemo121]

Swept Magwe today to highlight the need for Damian to pin fighters there whenever I go for Ramree. We lost a roughly even number of planes, about 13 or 14 each.

A nice attack went in against an IJA division holding the line south of Darwin. I trashed about 1 Regt and will try again tomorrow. It'll break in 2, perhaps 3 days.

Elsewhere there was very little action except for a naval bombardment of Attu by BBs and CAs detached from KB. Unfortunately it seems that as part of a slightly chaotic upgrade process whereby Damian upgraded to J1 and I ran the turn under J2 the PTs which I created under J2 disappeared. The end result was that my PT ambush never happened as the PTs vanished into the thin air of the computer gremlins . I lost about 40 planes on the ground but it cost Damian the SAG escorting KB as that will have to head back to Japan for resupply.

This does mean though that KB won't be pushing all the way to Dutch Harbour as he cannot risk pushing that far east without significant surface combat assets. I've rerouted my forces directly to Dutch Harbour accordingly.

Right now Damian is on the cusp of sticking around Attu too long. He is too good a player to do that just to chase a few cripples so if he's staying around Attu it is either with a view to:
1. preventing its use to support the Kuriles ( meaning he is rushing a counter-invasion force there ).
2. preventing reinforcement of Attu ( meaning he is rushing to invade Attu )
3. isolating Attu and supporting invasions of the other unoccupied Aleutians.

Either way it looks to me as though there's a high likelihood that amphibious TFs will appear somewhere in the Aleutians soon. I'm therefore going to keep my surface combat assets at Dutch Harbour in order to be able to commit them to surface combat once any amphibious TFs show up.

Nothing much else to report. A sub bounced a non-detonating torpedo off Kongo and a few other near misses but nothing significant. Elsewhere the flow of forces to my weak points and attempts to find his continue.

[Nemo121]

Another day down and some progress in Oz....

I cleared and took Daly Waters which now gives me an airbase within range of Darwin to begin interdicting whatever evacuation Damian puts in place. My forces have also attrited the IJA division there down to about 1/3rd of its size. Land warfare appears to be working better than ever in this latest version.

On the Carnarvon front enemy BBs and CVs have appeared. I wasn't expecting them at all, imagining that most of them must be up north with KB. I'm assuming these are CVLs and suchlike but they are escorted by fast BBs and enough CAs to level the airfield. In return I'll send in some cruisers, try to interdict any efforts to rescue the IJA division I have trapped here and generally just invite him to waste fuel, sorties and effort in rescuing the unrescuable.


On the Burma front forces are moving into staging positions. I'm about a week away from launching.


In the Aleutians KB sticks around for yet another day. It seems more and more likely he is making a move for the Aleutians themselves. I have no option but to accept his initial thrust and seek to riposte as I don't have sufficient power to make a hit of my own.

In China I'm gathering more and more force for my schwerpunkt. It looks like I might be able to mass about 3,000 AV in open terrain vs 7 IJA units. I'm hopeful that this will allow me to break those units and create a gap in his lines.

In other news a Dutch sub planted a torpedo into an enemy CL which is a nice little bonus.


Overall I'm still trying to mobilise all the shipping sitting around in bases behind the lines in Oz and India so that they can contribute whilst trying desperately to get enough shipping into the US side of the Pacific. I'm sending xAPs and TKs from India to the US since losses to US shipping have been so cataclysmic. I've never seen the USN and its transport fleet as badly damaged as I found them in this game.

[princep01]

Admiral Nemo, might I humbly request that you game date label your postings?