The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

8/7/42

Ramree Island: 48th IJA Div. "crosses the channel" and shock attacks. Results:

Ground combat at Ramree Island (54,48)

Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 13885 troops, 134 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 464
Defending force 12909 troops, 151 guns, 108 vehicles, Assault Value = 411

Japanese adjusted assault: 268
Allied adjusted defense: 639

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
2507 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 306 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 62 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
157 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
48th Division

Defending units:
1st Marine Raider Battalion
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
2/1 AIF Pioneer Battalion
16th British Brigade
63rd Indian Brigade
2nd Indian Coastal Artillery Regiment
116th RAF Base Force
24th Indian Construction Battalion
C Det USN Port Svc
1st Bengal Construction Battalion
97th Field Artillery Battalion
1st USMC Engineer Aviation Battalion
6th Heavy AA Regiment
823rd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Tomorrow: It's worth counterattacking since it appears 48th Div. might have suffered a temporary 70% decrease in fighting effectiveness. Only the Marine Raiders took any kind of disruption or fatigue, so the Allies will counterattack. The 4EB at Imphal and Calcutta will join in (if they agree to fly) and two CL TFs from Akyab and a BB TF at Chittagong will bombard (if they agree to sail and if the BBs are close enough to make the run.

Bay of Bengal: No appearance by IJ forces today. CV Illustrious makes Madras. CVL Hermes dawdles and only makes it a couple of hexes out of Viz. Illustrious tries for Trincomalee tomorrow (as will a small TF from Colombo flagged by Pensacola). CA Quincy and five DDs arrives at Capetown and will move to theater to reinforce. There are no signs that John's coming soon, but I just think he is.

Burma: John is bringing forces forward. There will be a little bit of shuffling around as some of his units push back some lighter Allied units. 18th UK Div. will soon be taking position on the jungle road east of Akyab, with lots more following (including Marine tanks and 41st USA Div.).

China: John is working Chengte hard with what he has left in China. I don't know if he'll be able to take it. He's not working Kweilin hard, which comes as a surprise since it's the last Allied outpost on the railroad. A Chinese fighter squadron flying Vanguards is "bought" and moved to Ledo. I think inferior fighters can be useful in protecting rear bases. If the front bases are clogged with big stacks and rear bases are totally unprotected, sometimes enemy bombers will sortie far to the rear. So Mohawsks, Vanguards and the like attend to this duty.

NoPac: More SigInt for the Aleutians: 51st B.F. is coming to Agattu. 7th Independent Eng. Reg't to Attu.

CenPac: SigInt that 6th Div. is moving to Kusaie.

[Mundy]

Dan, how do you estimate that the 48th's effectiveness is reduced by that much?
 
I'm soneone who always struggles to guage battles in the ground war, so your view would be helpful.
 
Thanks,
 
Ed-

[Canoerebel]

My estimate is based on the original unadjusted AV of 48th Div. at 464 (which is consistent with a typical IJ division). During the ensuing battle, the division suffered 16 destroyed and 302 disabled combat squads. That means roughly 318 of 464 squads aren't ready for battle (though some of the disabled ones might recover). Also, some of the engineer squads (62 disabled) probably contribute to the overall unadjusted AV of the division. Since the division is in a jungle hex and not connected to a good supply source, I'm thinking few of its disabled squads will recover. The Allied bombing and bombardment missions are intended to help keep them suppressed. So, all in all, I'm guestimating that this division, originally with a strength of 464, might be more like 140 tomorrow.

[Mundy]

Thanks, that helps.

It comes down to looking further into the unit as it's "normally" set up.

Ed-

[Canoerebel]

Flipping the battle around, you can see that my coming counterattack isn't a sure thing. I think I have roughly 210 AV schedule to attack, supported by two artillery units. The enemy might have 140 AV x 2 for jungle terrain = 280. But the odds are that the enemy stack has pretty high fatigue. And the odds won't get any better, so I'll give it my best shot.

[Chickenboy]

Good assessment, CR. My estimates and conclusions would be right along the same lines as yours. Either a 1:1 or a 2:1 Allied: Japanese attack ratio for tomorrow's Allied attack. Either way, this is a good opportunity for you to elicit Japanese casualties at an equal or favorable ratio.

I also agree with your ground attack aircraft's role in tomorrow's attack. Maximize the disruption and fatigue against your opponent before the land combat phase goes off.

So-the bad news is that you lost that hex side out of Ramree. How are you going to get it back?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Flipping the battle around, you can see that my coming counterattack isn't a sure thing. I think I have roughly 210 AV schedule to attack, supported by two artillery units. The enemy might have 140 AV x 2 for jungle terrain = 280. But the odds are that the enemy stack has pretty high fatigue. And the odds won't get any better, so I'll give it my best shot.

John seems to think that any unit with "Division" in its name is Superman. He so rarely uses combined arms against fortifications. And he loves him some Shocks.

I think you should attack, yes. A Deliberate, with the Raiders on Reserve (Pursuit). If you win you get the hex side back as well and the Raiders should be able to scamper back to their lines.

[GreyJoy]

Yes, I really do not understand how John plays the land warfare. He uses his Divisions in a total wrong way, imho. That attack against Ramree, facing the equivalent of 3 allied brigades, well entrenched in good terrain and with plenty of support, should have had at least an army HQ fully prepped, a couple of 150mm heavy artillery units and at least a tank regiment following the 48th Division. Sending the division alone is just calling to get nailed, like it happened.
 

[Canoerebel]

8/8/42

Ramree Island: The stars align for the Allies. 4EB from both base fly. All three bombardment TFs come in (the BBs contribute disruption while the CLs are ineffective). Then the Allies attack with these results (curious or strong results in bold):

Ground combat at Ramree Island (54,48)
Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8374 troops, 125 guns, 37 vehicles, Assault Value = 396
Defending force 10750 troops, 133 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 140

Allied adjusted assault: 189

Japanese adjusted defense: 85

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3896 casualties reported
Squads: 63 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 126 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 21 (14 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (6 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
161 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Marine Raider Battalion
2/1 AIF Pioneer Battalion
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
16th British Brigade
63rd Indian Brigade
6th Heavy AA Regiment
116th RAF Base Force
24th Indian Construction Battalion
97th Field Artillery Battalion
1st Bengal Construction Battalion
1st USMC Engineer Aviation Battalion
C Det USN Port Svc
2nd Indian Coastal Artillery Regiment
823rd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Defending units:
48th Division

Result: Not sure why 48th Div. had no squads disabled (that's a result typically seen with a unit that is completely destroyed, but obviously this one wasn't since only 63 squads were eliminated and there are lots more than that). Also note the high number of non-combat squads destroyed. The division should be out of commissionf or awhile. Per Poultry Lad's question, I still own the hexside on my side, so I can move out of the hex if and when the time comes (I don't have any plans to do so - Ramree is defensive from a land standpoint for quite some time to come). I think John owns his side of the hexside, which means Allied supply won't flow out, but it wouldn't anyway since he holds the adjacent hex. But I'm not planning to use Ramree as a supply dump until much later - for the near and medium term, I'll need every bit I can get to Ramree just to build the airfield (and later more forts) and handle air and ground operations. So, my evaluation is that things are just like I want 'em at Ramree right now. (John may bring more next time; I may do some reinforcing too.)

Burma: John will get some revenge on the road between Ramree and Akyab. One of his forward divisions entered a hex occupied by three units (I was hoping that number might mislead John long enough for a reinforcing UK brigade to arrive). He'll attack tomorrow, forcing the Aryglles, Eastern HQ and an arty unit to retreat. The next hex, though is where the Allies make a stand as 18th UK Div. begins to arrive followed by additional reinforcements. Will Burma become an efficient killing field for the Allies or will John turn it into a frustrating theater in which the Allies are stymied? The jury is out, though early returns have been promising.

Bay of Bengal: CV Illustrious leaves Trincomalee tonight for the hazardous trip to Colombo. Allied combat TFs are doing the reverse as I commit additional ships to the Bay. I'm waiting for John to "flank speed" a carrier TF to interdict these movements. I think one more turn and the bulk of the critical exposure will be complete.

NoPac: SigInt that 1st IJN AA Bn to Attu Island (man, SigInt has been ringing with Aleutians troop movements).

Pacific: Mostly quiet. AP Zeilin made it to Sydney yard.

Long-term Plans: I'm still working on long-term goals and planning. I'm going to pretty much keep intact my general deployment - a mass of troops in each of three main theaters that can be used offensively - NoPac, Pacific, Oz. I've got to decide on targets to begin new prep assignments. I've also got to decide which ships go where, which is an agonizing exercise in thinking - not nearly as fun as breaking things that belong to the enemy.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The division should be out of commissionf or awhile.

You think? [;)]

This reminds me of the movie Return of the Living Dead Part II, when the zombies overran the policemen's patrol. After messily devouring the hapless policemen, the zombie protagonist (:)) got on the squadcar radio announcing in a dry, gravely zombie voice: "Send more cops!!".

[Canoerebel]

That reminds me of the Confederate brigadier general given orders to attack an enemy brigade in the forest at Chickamauga. He advanced his brigade only to find an enemy division or two concealed in those woods. "Which of the four or five enemy brigades in my front is the one you wish me to attack?" he wrote back to his superior.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/8/42

Ramree Island: The stars align for the Allies. 4EB from both base fly. All three bombardment TFs come in (the BBs contribute disruption while the CLs are ineffective). Then the Allies attack with these results (curious or strong results in bold):

Ground combat at Ramree Island (54,48)
Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8374 troops, 125 guns, 37 vehicles, Assault Value = 396
Defending force 10750 troops, 133 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 140

Allied adjusted assault: 189

Japanese adjusted defense: 85

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3896 casualties reported
Squads: 63 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 126 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 21 (14 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (6 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
161 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Marine Raider Battalion
2/1 AIF Pioneer Battalion
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
16th British Brigade
63rd Indian Brigade
6th Heavy AA Regiment
116th RAF Base Force
24th Indian Construction Battalion
97th Field Artillery Battalion
1st Bengal Construction Battalion
1st USMC Engineer Aviation Battalion
C Det USN Port Svc
2nd Indian Coastal Artillery Regiment
823rd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Defending units:
48th Division

Result: Not sure why 48th Div. had no squads disabled (that's a result typically seen with a unit that is completely destroyed, but obviously this one wasn't since only 63 squads were eliminated and there are lots more than that). Also note the high number of non-combat squads destroyed.

My read is the report only gives additional disabled on this attack. IOW, there is nothing there that can fight that ISN'T disabled. You killed everything that wasn't disabled before this attack. The non-combat number suggests this Div has little or no Support left alive either, meaning it is . . . what's the next step worse than "hollow shell"?

[Canoerebel]

8/9/42

Bay of Bengal: No IJN molesting. Illustrious reaches Colombo and departs tonight for Bombay. Hermes will arrive at Trincomalee tonight. Pensacla TF will near Diamond Harbor tonight. New Orleans TF leaves Trincomalee tonight for Diamond Harbor. AE Shasta leaves Colombo tonight for Trincomalee. Over the past few days, Akyab and Cox's airfields went to level five, Calcutta to level nine, and Ramree is at 3.54.

Burma: John didn't attack my vulernable little stack. He had detailed an armored unit to come in behind it, but one brigade of 18th UK Div. reached that hex first. So John should attack the vulernable stack tomorrow, forcing it to retreat into the UK brigade hex, where I'll hold everyone as reinforcements move up. I'm taking a bit of a chance up in the line of key jungle hexes. Tomorrow, 7th Aussie Div. leaves a hex to slide west, the first in a series of moves to advance (or threaten to) further south. I'm leaving behind two Indian brigades (both behind three forts) and a tank destroyer unit (plus HQ unit) to hold that hex against an IJA division. I don't want Japan to take the hex, but it's not absolutely critical since the real Allied LOC is along the coast roads, not the Kalemyo to Ledo line.

Future Actions: Deciding a few days back to essentially keep Allied ground force allocation as is to permit eventual operations against NoPac, CenPac, So Pac, or SWPac, helped to clear my mind a bit. The transports at Balboa will move forward to West Coast and Hawaii. The USN carriers will report to Pearl for upgrades. I still think there's a decent chance John will commit a major carrier force to the Bay of Bengal. If he does, I want to have the option of seriously considering an Aleutians campaign. If he doesn't, I'll eventually implement new plans. Until then, the Allies will get in position, accumulate political points, and work the Bay of Bengal angle.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in Burma:

1. Blue 3 is where 7th Oz Div. will its hex for the hex to the west, joining 754 Tanks, which arrives in a few days. I may look for a chance for these two units to move forward.
2. Blue 8 is where 18th UK Div. is assembling, to be followed eventually by 41st USA Div. and 1st USMC Tanks. Some or all of these units will try to move forward into the plane.
3. The Allies are counting on the proximity of big airfields to allow effective support from bombers, though John will contest that.
4. Note that Lashio remains in Chinese hands. For now that's a defensive position only for the Chinese garrison, but it's interesting that John doesn't have the troops on hand to attend to it (and never has).

[Canoerebel]

8/10/42

Bay of Bengal: No molesting activity by the IJN today. Illustrious makes good her escape and will retire to Capetown, having served her purpose of a conspicuous showing in the Bay (I don't know if John got wind of her departure, but I don't think so). Hermes makes the dangerous transit between Trincom and Colombo starting tonight. Most of the combat ships are pretty deep into the Bay now.

Burma: An IJA division roughs up the little stack between Ramree and Akyab, destroying roughly 100 squads (most from the Gloucestire Bn.) 7th Aussie Div. slides out of the hex to an adjacent hex (I wonder if John noticed?) leaving behind two Indian brigades behind three forts to face an IJA division. In addition to maneuvering towards the eventual move into the plains, I am hoping John will attack the Indian brigades and, in so doing, degrade another division. If he wins the hex, it's not optimal, but I'll deal with it.

China: Another IJA deliberate attack at Chenge fails miserably, though it does drop forts to zero. The Japanese lose 75 squads with 280 disabled. The Chinese lose nothing and don't have any fatigue or disruption at all. IJ bombers aren't affecting this stack. I think this is one of those cases where decent troops in good terrain will be fine even though forts are gone.

Pacific: Nothing of note to report. Agattu, one of the western Aluetians, now has a level one airfield.

[Cribtop]

Poor Gloucesters. I had a book called "Famous Last Stands" that discussed the sacrifices of UK troops against a big PLA offensive in Korea. A unit of the Gloucesters fought to the very end and was annihilated. Survivors of sister units rode out through the Chinese on top of a few Brit tanks sent to the rescue.

[JeffroK]

The original book was "The Glorious Glosters",
I think this was written by Anthony Farrar-Hockley.

Was part of the Battle of the Imjin River were the British 29th Bde suffered just over 1000 casualties (600 odd from 1st Bn Gloucestershire Rgt)and inflicted approximately 10,000 Chinese/Nth Korean casualties.

At the same time 27th British Bde with 3Bn Royal Australian Regiment and 2Bn Pricess Patricias Light Infantry fought the Battle of Kapyong.

[denisonh]

Served two tours in Korea as an infantry officer and did a staff ride to "Hill 235" or "Gloster Hill". Real sobering experience walking the ground.

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Poor Gloucesters. I had a book called "Famous Last Stands" that discussed the sacrifices of UK troops against a big PLA offensive in Korea. A unit of the Gloucesters fought to the very end and was annihilated. Survivors of sister units rode out through the Chinese on top of a few Brit tanks sent to the rescue.

[obvert]

Burma: An IJA division roughs up the little stack between Ramree and Akyab, destroying roughly 100 squads (most from the Gloucestire Bn.) 7th Aussie Div. slides out of the hex to an adjacent hex (I wonder if John noticed?) leaving behind two Indian brigades behind three forts to face an IJA division. In addition to maneuvering towards the eventual move into the plains, I am hoping John will attack the Indian brigades and, in so doing, degrade another division. If he wins the hex, it's not optimal, but I'll deal with it.

Your brigades should be more than fine against one or even two divisions with level 3+ forts in that territory. He would be unwise to attack, but ... it's happened a lot in this game so far.

[Canoerebel]

8/11/42

Bay of Bengal: CA Australia takes a torp on the way to Trin. She'll return to Colombo. CVL Hermes rounded that same dangerous Cape and is now heading for the Arabian Sea. She'll help form the optmistically-named Arabian Sea Force. Still no major incursions by Japan, though heavy recon of Ceylon. John's coming. I think. Ramree Island airfield goes to level four in two days. An Indian HQ comes in via APD starting tonight.

Burma: John took a little jab via email: "I like getting shots at major area HQ." He's referring to Eastern HQ which got pushed back (along with Gloucester Bn. and an arty unit) two days ago. In the fray, the unit was reduced in strength from 240 support down to 196 (I think it'll make good those losses relatively quickly). Slim has taken command of the unit, which is now paired up with 4th UK Brigade while waiting for the rest of 18th UK Div. (assigned to this command) to come up.

Pacific: Shemya airfield to level four; Attu airfield to level two. Most of the reinforcing RCT is ashore at Anchorage.