Olorin (J) vs NY59Giants (A)

[Olorin]

March 19-Apr 7, 1943

Burma
The allied army in Shwebo has grown from 20 units to 31. It was 2700 AV before, now it must be well over 3000. Meanwhile my flanks south of Akyab and around Lashio are hard pressed. A shock attack by 25th Indian Div south of Akyab was repelled, but a few more such attacks and the strength of 4th Ind.Mixed Rgt will be spent.

Ground combat at 55,47 (near Akyab)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 13197 troops, 209 guns, 234 vehicles, Assault Value = 402
Defending force 3975 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 96
Allied adjusted assault: 430
Japanese adjusted defense: 313
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
135 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
812 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 87 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 38 disabled

Assaulting units:
I Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
25th Indian Division
2/11th Field Regiment
2/9th Field Regiment
1st Indian Light AA Regiment
2/1st Med Regiment
14th Indian Light AA Regiment

Defending units:
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment

I therefore reinforced that hex with an independent brigade and now I have 250AV to resist further attacks. My right flank in and around Lashio (15th Army) withdrew, in fear of a breakthrough at Mandalay, which would also mean the effective isolation of 15th Army and overall collapse of Japanese resistance in Burma. 15th Army is now defending the jungle hexes southwest of Lashio.

In the air, Shwebo is constantly bombed and swept. The last two days were marked by a distinct lack of allied flak in Shwebo, which is a very good sign. I switched to ground bombing yesterday and the result was very encouraging. Under these conditions, there is no chance of an allied breakthrough at Mandalay...for now.

SE Fleet:
Lord Howe island was lost, after a month of air and naval bombardment. Fortunately, its garrison (two naval guard units) was extracted in time. The withdrawal from New Caledonia is proceeding without the KB. Only small, fast transport TFs are used, which makes the operation somewhat slower.

KB:
ALL my carriers are in the process of upgrading, either in the HI or in Singapore. If Michael launches a major offensive now, I will be helpless, but I took the risk anyway. In 3 weeks, I will be fully ready to meet any allied advance involving carriers.

[Olorin]

Apr 8-14, 1943

China:
Finally, everything was in place to launch a deliberate attack on Lanchow, a month after the bloody river crossing. The result was disappointing and I am now certain that the 21st Army alone cannot break this mighty fortress:

Ground combat at Lanchow (81,34)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 58676 troops, 569 guns, 876 vehicles, Assault Value = 1987
Defending force 47263 troops, 308 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1293
Japanese adjusted assault: 1754
Allied adjusted defense: 2111

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
7527 casualties reported
Squads: 104 destroyed, 491 disabled
Non Combat: 25 destroyed, 119 disabled
Engineers: 23 destroyed, 106 disabled
Guns lost 92 (8 destroyed, 84 disabled)
Vehicles lost 62 (12 destroyed, 50 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
667 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 21 (2 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Assaulting units:
6th Guards Division
2nd Tank Division
1st Tank Division
20th Ind Engineer Regiment
15th Tank Regiment
4th Guards Division
1st Engineer Co
5th Guards Division
North China Area Army
15th AA Regiment
1st Ind.AA Gun Co
21st Army

Defending units:
10th Construction Regiment
71st Chinese Corps
34th Separate Brigade
9th Separate Brigade
3rd Chinese Corps
100th Chinese Corps
12th Construction Regiment
1st War Area
56th AT Gun Regiment
3rd Heavy Mortar Regiment
19th Chinese Base Force
57th AT Gun Regiment
8th War Area
4th Heavy Mortar Regiment
21st Chinese Base Force

This results compels me to cancel my big Ankang offensive. Of the 10 divisions slated for that, 2 will defend the river southwest of Nanyang, 2 will remain in reserve (at Hankow and Shanghai) and 6 will relieve the 21st Army, which will be redeployed back to Java, to act as my strategic reserve. The time when the Allies can launch deep strikes has come and I need a powerful reserve to counter any such offensives. However, the redeployment won't be complete before June at best.

SE Fleet:
After reclaiming NE Australia, the Allies have become much more active in this theater. Tulagi was visited by heavy bombers operating from Nauru (?). My CAP shot down ¬10 of them, but 3 support ships are heavily damaged.

The next two days, Horn Island was hit hard. P-38s sweep in 3 waves, my Tojos claim 18 kills, in exchange for 15 Tojos. The bombers manage to get through easily though. Two already half-dead transport ships sunk in the port and the airfield sustained minor damage, while some 20 Tojos were damaged on the ground.

A small allied DD TF attempted to raid my exposed shipping lanes in SE New Guinea, but found no shipping. 16 Judys escorted by 25 Oscars put two 500 Kg bombs to DD Nicholas, which finally succumbs to its wounds two days later. I use only fast transport TF here to avoid such raids.

Burma:
More of the same. Shwebo is raided daily by 100+ Helen bombers. 125 Tojo sweeps meet no opposition. Shwebo is out of supplies and the units stationed there do not fire back, which means they are also out of supply. Good! The airfield is kept damaged, but most of my bombers are now devoted to ground attack, which so far yields good results. While this pounding continues, I don't think the allied stack at Shwebo will be in any state to cross the river any time soon.

[Olorin]

Apr 15-21, 1943

Burma:
More of the same. Sweeps over Shwebo by 85 Tojos meet no opposition, followed by airfield raids and ground attacks. Supply seems to still be an issue for Michael here. Good!
Meanwhile, the battered infantry division recently bought from China is two weeks away. The Guards Tank Division will then be redeployed to the Java where it came from, since the 3rd Tank Div is fully recovered from its recent trashing near Shwebo, a month ago.

China:
The redeployments are proceeding as planned. Two battered Guards Divisions are on their way back to the nearest railhead. The rest of the 21st Army will wait for relief by the 6 infantry divisions from the Nanyang region.

SE Fleet:
Three Fletcher class DDs raid Milne Bay. They engage 4 PBs unloading supplies there, of which 1 is sunk and the other three doubtful to make it back to Rabaul. A RO-Boat is unable to even slow them down. It would be nice if they ended their movement inside Judy range...
Evacuation of New Caledonia and environs is proceeding slowly but surely. All released assets reinforce New Guinea and the Solomons.
Meanwhile, 1/3 of a division from the HI is bought and will soon be defending Port Moresby, to relieve the 18th Div, which will be redeployed to Darwin. The other 2/3s will follow suit.

4th Fleet:
Lots of allied activity. Various TFs coming and going. I'm always on alert here, as I deem this theater to be the most likely to be attack in the near future.

5th Fleet:
Winter will soon be over, so the 4th Div is on its way to Wakkannai from Saipan, to act as the 5th Fleet reserve.

Carriers:
Zuikaku, Shokaku, Soryu, Soryu and two CLAAs finished upgrading in the HI and are on their way to join Taiho at Kavieng.
Akagi still needs 10 days to finish.
At Singapore and Soerebaja, all CVLs finished upgrading. Kaga still needs 10 days to finish, Junyo and Hiyo need 5 days.
By June, I will have Shinano and 3 Unyo-class carriers available for action.

[Olorin]

Apr 22-27, 1943

Burma:
The allied stack at Shwebo begun moving to the west. This is worrying. His supply situation hasn't improved at all, yet he is on the march. I really have no hope of preventing a river crossing and fighting on the plains. I doubt if I can stop him even further back at Toungoo. The only truly safe defense line would be Mulmein-Chiang Mai, but I am not going to just gift him all this oil, space, time and good bases just yet. I am contemplating various extreme solutions at the moment.

In any case, the 35th Div will arrive at Rangoon in about a week from now. Guards Tank Division is back at Singapore. The 3rd Tank Div is fully recovered at Mektila.

SE Fleet:
An allied surface TF, centered around CL Helena, bombarded Port Moresby at night! Surprising, but I got away with it thanks to a very bad roll for Michael. Only 11 squads were disabled, with no damage to the airstrip. Basic measures to avoid this in the future: Port Moresby now has a thick minefield, 4 patrol boats and 4 midget subs.

I will also need strong surface support for the upcoming relief of the 18th Div at Port Moresby by the 54th Div, arriving soon from the HI. Yamato, Nagato and Mutsu will provide that. The 18th div will join the rest of the 25th Army at Darwin.

Recon:
Various allied TFs coming and going in the Gilberts. Tabituea went from 30.000 troops to 13.000. Lots of radio traffic in New Zealand and Va'avu.
Something is brewing...

Carriers:
All carriers are upgraded and are now equipped with radar and decent anti-aircraft batteries.
Kido Buttai will be assembled at Kavieng in 4 days (Taiho, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiryu). Akagi still needs 10 days to finish upgrading at Kure. KB is fully equipped with the A6M5b, Judy and Jill.
Kido Buttai 2 is fully assembled at Batavia, except Kaga, which still needs another 5 days to finish upgrading at Singapore. KB2 will need another month to upgrade its air arm to the latest models.

[Olorin]

TOP SECRET

Strategic Overview:
The time has come when the Allies are capable of launching multiple major offensives on land and sea. One land offensive is currently ongoing in Burma. A major invasion is expected soon, as the Hellcat is now here, as Michael constantly reminds me. The question is WHERE will the hammer strike? I was afraid of deeps strikes from the beginning of this game, but Michael has shown to be more methodical/conservative than that. He has a certain timetable that he must follow and so far he feels he is following it pretty well. Assuming that I am correct then the next Allied offensive will not be a deep strike (although I am adequately prepared for any such eventuality), but an advance under cover of (a) 4E bombers, (b) concentrated carrier aviation and (c) land based fighters. I'd say that at least the first two factors are prerequisites for an allied offensive.
Considering this, here are the theaters in order of probability of attack:

1) Southeast Fleet:
Lots of options available for the Allies: New Caledonia, New Hebrides, Solomons, New Guinea. The latter (including Horn Island) is very strongly defended and I think Michael will see that the probable losses are potentially too great for the prize. The first two sectors are defended only by SNFL plus LBA, so as to necessitate the launching of a serious invasion, with carrier support, but not risk elite ground units in the process. This is what I'd like him to do at the moment.

Another option for him is to go straight for Ndeni and/or Tulagi, in order to cut off Numea/Luganville. That would also be welcome as I keep the KB just one day away from these areas and I have strong LBA assets too.

2) 4th Fleet:
Kusaie, Ponape and Eniwetok are well within 4E bomber range, as well as P-38 range. The Allies possess good bases nearby. The problem for them is that these bases are inside Emily range, so there is no possibility of surprise. I am very strong here with adequate reserves deep behind my lines and KB only a day away.

3) Western Australia:
The Allies have two options here as I see it. Either (a) launch a deep strike in NW Oz (Exmouth/Carnavon/Geraldon) ala Canoerebel, in order to cut off the rest or (b) land at Esperance/Albany, take Kalgoorlie and then bring the otherwise restricted Australian Army into the fray. The first option would truly be devastating but also very risky, so I'd say (b) is the more probable course of action of the two. I am not strong at all here in terms of ground units, but I've got a sizable LBA at Perth.

4)Northern Australia:
If option (3) is not taken, then I think it's fair to assume that a land offensive by the Australian Army in this sector is almost a certainty. The 25th Army is being assembled in Darwin to meet this threat and act as a general reserve if the threat is not realised.

5) Andaman Islands
Taking the Andamans and then landing in Malaya or northern Sumatra would constitute a checkmate! I feared this move since I captured Port Blair, but so far absolutely nothing indicates an imminent move here.

6) Kurilles:
Almost as devastating as (5), if followed up by landings in South Sakhalin and/or Hokkaido, but I give this a lower probability than (5).

7) DEI:
Striking at the heart of my oil centers would mean game over, but it's highly unlikely as a first move. As a follow up to (3) or (5) it would be possible though.

Kido Buttai:
KB is split in two halves. KB1 being the strongest of the two (Taiho, Shokaku, Zuikaku, Soryu, Hiryu, Akagi) is being kept at Kavieng to cover Kusaie or Tulagi or Port Moresby in one day. Two days will be needed to reinforce Luganville, three to reinforce Numea.

KB2 is slightly weaker (Kaga, Junyo, Hiyo plus all the smaller carriers) and is stationed in Java, in order to cover the Andamans or Western Oz if need be. Obviously longer trips will be needed, but my naval search is good enough to give me a few days warning.

By the end of May, 4 new fleet carriers will be added to the above forces.

In terms of ground units, I currently have two divisions in reserve, one of them being the Guards Tank Division. By the end of May I will have 5 divisions in reserve. In June, two additional tank divisions and another Guards Div will arrive from China to increase my reserve force to 8 divisions in total. They will be stationed mostly in Java (21st Army) and northern Australia (25th Army). This is without counting the various operational and tactical reserves assigned to each theater.

[Olorin]

Apr 28 - May 3, 1943

SE Fleet:
Action around Horn Island. Two consecutive naval bombardments by allied TF consisting of two CLs and 6 DDs each. In combination with air raids by 4e bombers, Horn Island's airfield is almost closed. I sent a small surface TF of 4 DDs; during the night phase, we both lost one DD, but during the day phase another one of mine goes down while the remaining two suffer severe damage but make it back to Merauke. Another Fletcher-class destroyer is claimed by a mine.

I need to protect Horn Island more effectively. My air forces could have done better, but no bombers flew any missions. I bring more escort fighters, more dive bombers and engineers to accelerate airfield expansion in Terapo and Merauke.

Meanwhile, the first brigade of the 54th Div is unloading at Rabaul. The second one is one week behind.

Burma:
The allied army at Shwebo moved one hex to the west. Ground attacks continue daily, weather permitting, and the damage done is significant. Lots of guns and tanks destroyed or disabled and disruption must be high. Their supplies are still low, as flak is very limited.

Intel reports:
No less than 10 allied submarines show up around Perth.
The area between Truk and Rabaul is also infested.
Heavy radio traffic at Melbourne, mouse over shows 1 CV, 4 CVLs and 2 CAs. Japanese SigInt is useful for once.
Heavy radio traffic at Wellington and Va'avu, as usual.
Tabituea's garrison recently went from +30.000 troops, down to 15.000.

Kido Buttai:
KB rebased to Manus, but it must have been discovered by radio intercepts. Its DL yesterday was 5/5.

[Olorin]

May 4-6, 1943

SE Fleet:
Yamato and co are two hexes west of Milne Bay, making their way to Port Moresby, so far unhindered. Two allied BBs are spotted at Cairns.
Horn Island is 80% damaged and visited by 50 or so Mitchels daily.

Western Australia:
Interesting sightings...5 allied TFs are spotted southeast of Ceduna. No major warships reported, but the presence of an APA makes me think this could be serious. Could be a feint of course, but nothing at all suspicious is occurring in other fronts, except around Horn Island. KB2 (minus Kaga) set sail for Perth, a 5 day trip. 5th Div begins loading at Darwin.
Tomorrow, I'll have more information.

[Olorin]

May 7-8, 1943

Burma:
I am counting on my air superiority here to delay the inevitable. The allied army west of Shwebo is pounded yet again, another 22 vehicles of the 254th Armoured Bde are disabled. I need another two months of delay here.

China:
I still have two armoured Divs and one Guards Div at Lanchow waiting to be replaced by 6 IJA inf divs. The other two Guards Divs still need one month of marching to reach Shanghai. This means that the entirety of the 21st Army won't be available for duty elsewhere, before mid July. I need to hold lower Burma until then. Then I will decide where to commit my reserve. Burma or Western Oz?

Western Australia:
Things are clear now. The Allies are committed seriously to Western Australia. The number and kind of ships spotted leaves no room for doubts. I am betting that Esperance is the first objective, with Kalgoorlie the second and most important one. If Kalgoorlie falls, the entire region is lost.

I thought the allied armada would have hit the shores by now, but they are still 5 hexes southeast of Esperance. I have 9 submarines. One of them is hit by depth charges, but another one puts a torp into CVE Suwannee.

My main striking force here is my LBA. 550 aircraft in total, based mostly at Perth and Albany. No strikes were launch today, because I 've restricted my bombers to just enough range to reach Esperance. 190 of them are IJAAF level bombers with pilots trained in LowNav (+60) and are ordered to go in at 1000 ft. IJNAF torpedo bombers are ordered to strike at 11000 ft. The target is the enemy transport ships, not the carriers.

8 escorts will attempt to lay 140 mines in Esperance port.
A small surface TF of 4 destroyers will go in at full speed. Hopefully it will get past the allied surface cover to disrupt the landing force.
The largest IJN asset at the moment is a TF centered around CAs Atago and Takao. It will not intervene today. I want the allied BBs to spend their ammo during the expected naval bombardments tomorrow. Then my cruisers will attempt to reach the transports.

Reinforcements:
The 3rd Fleet is 8 hexes northwest of Exmouth and needs two and a half days at flank speed to reach Perth.
The 19th Army is further behind. Guards Tank Div and Imperial Guards Div just left Soerebaja. 5th Div is off Derby. 18th Div is being loaded at Port Moresby.

Kido Buttai is heading to Koepang and there it will wait further orders. The Pacific will be left without carriers for the remainder of May. 4 new carriers will cover the gap in June.

[Olorin]

May 9, 1943

The day belongs to the Allies, as nothing worked as planned [:(]

Western Oz:
The invasion of Esperance begins, with lots of sub action. I lost one sub and had several misses, but at least I got a CVE yesterday.
The minelaying TF did not get a chance to lay ANY mines, as it met a large allied cruiser TF. All 8 escorts were sunk! The other, smaller surface TF consisting of 4 destroyers met the same cruiser TF and claimed an allied destroyer, for the loss of one Japanese destroyer and another damaged one (it will survive).

My naval strikes fail miserably. 36 Zeros and 38 Kates decide not to fly their missions. As a result there are not enough escorts for my bombers and Michael's LRCAP works well:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 27
D4Y1 Judy x 32
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 37

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 66
F6F-3 Hellcat x 57

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 12 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 22 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Idaho

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 32 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 34
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 32

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 36
F6F-3 Hellcat x 38

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 19 destroyed, 2 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed by flak
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Raleigh
BB Idaho
xAP Tjinegara

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp

Then my Helens strike from 1000 ft, but not at the allied transports, but their battleships [8|]

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 2,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 36
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 36
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 5
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 53
Ki-49-IIb Helen x 22

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 24
F6F-3 Hellcat x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 4 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 5 destroyed, 24 damaged
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 4 destroyed by flak
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 3 destroyed, 10 damaged
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
BB New Mexico, Bomb hits 2
BB Arizona
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 2
CA Minneapolis
APD Crosby
BB Idaho, Bomb hits 1
xAP Tanimbar, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Monssen
AK Cassiopeia
CA Chester
xAP Katoomba, Bomb hits 1
DD Anderson
xAP Noordam, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAP Macdhui, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DMS Boggs

Allied ground losses:
58 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 3,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 18

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 20
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 7 destroyed, 6 damaged
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses
Allied Ships
CA New Orleans
BB Mississippi
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 21
Ki-49-IIa Helen x 9

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 18
F6F-3 Hellcat x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 4 destroyed, 4 damaged
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses
Allied Ships
BB Mississippi

My Nells arrive scattered and unescorted and naturally suffer great misery.
27 Liberators raid the airfield from Ceduna, but damage is limited.

Several allied TFs hit the shores. 5 TFs are centered around a single BB, two CAs, 8 DDs arrive at night. BBs Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Pensylvania and Arizona are spotted. Naval bombardments target mainly ground troops and reduce their already limited firepower to 67 AV. 1st MarDiv, Americal Div and LOTs of support are ashore.


SE Fleet:
Portland Roads now has an airstrip. Allied DBs sink two transports resupplying Horn Islands and 3 subchasers.

Overall, I lost 225 aircraft today and claimed 34 (mainly Wildcats and Hellcats).
Tomorrow, KB2 will reach Perth.

[Olorin]

May 10, 1943

Sub Action:
KB encounters an allied sub off Sorong. A 6 torpedo salvo misses CV Soryu! Michael now knows that KB left the Pacific.
BatDiv3 encounters another sub on its way to Perth, but escapes unharmed.
I lost another sub off Esperance.

Western Oz:
Esperance is lost, after more devastating naval bombardments, an afternoon ground attack by (8?) American CVs and a deliberate attack by 1100 AV.

I stood down my LBA for today, in order to recover morale and receive replacements. I want them ready to attack again tomorrow, in co-ordination with KB, which arrived at Perth without being spotted. CruDiv3, centered around Atago and Takao, will go in at full speed. Fortunately, it will get past the allied battleships and cruisers and say hello to the big allied tranport TF arriving from the east, no doubt carrying follow up forces. KB2 will move one hex west of Albany. Fighters based at Albany will hopefully provide as much CAP as they can. 70 Tojos, 45 Zeros and 35 Oscars will sweep Esperance to soften allied CAP. All available bombers are set for naval strikes. Hopefully my LBA will act before KB2 launches its package. I hope for a 7-hex strike on his CVs (which are anchored one hex south of Esperance) or a 6-hex strike at his transports and battleships at Esperance.


SE Fleet:
I lost an AMC (part of the TF that is carrying the 18th Div) to allied DBs operating from Coen, as the LRCAP is weak. Yamato and co are attacked too, but escaped unscathed. Some troops are lost, but tomorrow my TFs will be out of the danger zone.

[Olorin]

May 11, 1943

I don't know how to feel about this turn. My LBA did not contribute at all to today's plans.

Western Oz:
The turn starts decently with the sinking of an allied CA by CruDiv3. It made a night run into the lion's mouth, knocked a tooth out and escaped with only minor damage. On its way out, it encountered 10 PTs, sinking two of them. In the morning though, it lost 3 of its destroyers to a naval strike by the American carriers. Another 2 destroyers (leftovers from yesterday's night action were sunk at Albany. My cruisers are safe though:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Esperance at 55,153, Range 11,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
Seagull V: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Takao
CA Atago
CL Isuzu, Shell hits 3
CL Yura
DD Shiratsuyu, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Murasame, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Shirakumo
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
CA Australia, Shell hits 28, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CA Canberra, Shell hits 3
DD Preston, Shell hits 1
DD Downes, Shell hits 1
DD Cassin
DD Tucker, Shell hits 23, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Albany at 52,153

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 9
A6M5 Zero x 17
A6M5b Zero x 11
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 31

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 38
SBD-3 Dauntless x 27
TBF-1 Avenger x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 4 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 3 destroyed, 3 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 4 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Uranami, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Murasame, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage (sunk)
DD Shiratsuyu, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage (sunk)

SS I-27 sunk an allied xAP with troops. Events during the night were encouraging, but the sun did not bring the good news I expected.

Absolutely NO sweeps took place! My land based fighters decided to drink sake, while Kates based at Albany were flying unescorted against 8 (?) American carriers, plus an unknown number of CVEs. KB2 launched a 7-hex strike that was completely chewed by allied CAP. I think that with the planned sweeps, this CAP would have been significantly weakened and the allied CVs would be in trouble. As it was, only 1 (!!!) Kate got to release its torpedo and of course it missed. The only compensation was the sinking of Prince Wales and that the enemy carriers decided to ignore mine and go after CruDiv3:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 57,154
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 12

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 155
F6F-3 Hellcat x 75

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 57,154
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid detected at 117 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 49 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 29
A6M5b Zero x 42
B5N2 Kate x 55
D4Y1 Judy x 16

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 152
F6F-3 Hellcat x 73

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 5 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 33 destroyed, 1 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 11 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 57,154
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 27

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 128
F6F-3 Hellcat x 61

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 5 destroyed

No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 142 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 60 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 10

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 8
P-40E Warhawk x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 41
F4U-1 Corsair x 16
F6F-3 Hellcat x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 123 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N2 Kate x 17

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 8
P-40E Warhawk x 8
F4F-4 Wildcat x 49
F4U-1 Corsair x 15
F6F-3 Hellcat x 41

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 7 destroyed

No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,153
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 159 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 67 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 10
A6M5b Zero x 32
B5N2 Kate x 5
D4Y1 Judy x 6

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 7
P-40E Warhawk x 7
F4F-4 Wildcat x 37
F4U-1 Corsair x 14
F6F-3 Hellcat x 30

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
A6M5b Zero: 4 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Esperance at 56,154
Weather in hex: Heavy cloud
Raid detected at 67 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 14
B5N2 Kate x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
BB Prince of Wales, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (sunk)
CL Hobart

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 45cm Type 91 Torp

Carrier support unable to supply air cover..

I am left wondering what could have been IF the sweeps had occurred and IF my naval strikes were coordinated. 67 pilots were KIA and 70 were MIA (mostly Kate pilots). On the positive side, my carriers escaped retaliation, I sunk a CA and a DD and another 40 or so allied carrier-based fighters were destroyed.

Kido Buttai:
KB is refueling at Koepang. CV Kaga, which finished upgrading only 5 days ago and was unable to take part in the attack, merged with its comrades. Tommorow CV Akagi will join them too.
KB2 will return to Perth to replenish.

SE Fleet:
Mitchels flying naval attack missions attacked Yamato and co again, sinking an xAK.
Horn Island is completely repaired and 80 Tojos are rebased there.
The second brigade of 54th Div is headed to Port Moresby. The third one is one week behind (will go to Terapo).

[Olorin]

May 12, 1943

Western Oz:
I stood down every aircraft for today and sent KB2 back to Perth to replenish. A wise decision, a the allied CVs moved 5-6 hexes southwest of Albany. They sunk two AMc's.

KB refueled at Koepang. Akagi and Kaga joined their brethren (now 7 CVs in total, 620 aircraft).
Guards Tank Div, 2nd Guards Div (former Imperial Guards) and 5th Div will begin unloading at Geraldon in two days. The 18th Div is at Darwin.

SE Fleet:
All quiet today.

Burma:
The allied stack appears to have found some supply, as its flak suddenly became more lethal.

Sub wars:
I lost a third sub near Esperance, but sink an allied sub at Kendari.

[Olorin]

May 13, 1943

Western Oz:
SS I-157 is hit hard and it's doubtful it will make it back to Albany safely.
I-166 put 3 torpedoes into CV Saratoga, one hex south of Esperance! It was hit by 2 depth charges but damage is minimal:

Sub attack near Esperance at 56,154
Japanese Ships
SS I-162, hits 5, on fire

Allied Ships
CV Saratoga, Torpedo hits 2
BC Repulse
CA Vincennes
CA Astoria
CLAA San Diego
DD Kalk
DD Reid
DD Conyngham
DD Case

SS I-162 launches 4 torpedoes at CV Saratoga
DD Reid fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Conyngham attacking submerged sub ....
DD Case fails to find sub and abandons search
Escort abandons search for sub
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sub attack near Esperance at 56,154
Japanese Ships
SS I-166, hits 1

Allied Ships
CV Saratoga, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BC Repulse
CA Vincennes
CA Astoria
CA Chicago
CLAA San Diego
DD Meade
DD Reid
DD Conyngham
DD Case

Ammo storage explosion on CV Saratoga
SS I-166 launches 4 torpedoes at CV Saratoga
DD Reid fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Conyngham fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Case fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Case attacking submerged sub ....
DD Case fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Case attacking submerged sub ....
DD Case fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Case fails to find sub, continues to search...
Escort abandons search for sub

I don't believe she is sunk...yet.

Allied units at Esperance begun moving north and west. Esperance airfield itself reached lvl 3 and now holds 125 fighters.

SE Fleet:
Minor action around Horn Island. Michael sends 4 Fletchers and a few patrol boats to tangle with 2 destroyers, 1 escort and a few patrol boats of mine. I lost DD Minegumo and two small tankers. [:(] No mine hits.

[Olorin]

May 14-16

Western Oz:
KB is found by an allied sub off Carnavon. The sub is successfully suppressed by ASW forces, but it somehow manages to spot every single ship in KB. On the 15th, KB refuels at sea and it only traveled two hexes. Again its DL is 10/10.

7 subs are currently on their way to the theater from Numea. Two of them were hit hard south of Melbourne. Several allied TFs are coming and going. Most of the allied CVs are spotted heading back to Melbourne, only two are sighted south of Esperance.

North of Esperance, the former garrison is pushed easily to the north by allied tanks.

48th Div was moved to Kalgoorlie, along with heavy artillery and engineers. In their stead, 9th Rgt now defends Perth. Geraldon will get 20th Rgt.

25th Army is resting at Geraldon, waiting for the 18th Div to arrive. I am considering an invasion of Esperance with 4 divisions. It appears that the bulk of the allied fleet is returning to Melbourne. The other option is to simply rail them to Kalgoorlie. Much safer, but slower.

SE Fleet:
Allied cruisers bombard Horn Island, doing significant damage. My MTBs managed to sink a CL in the process. The second brigade of 54th Div is currently unloading at Port Moresby.

[Olorin]

May 17-22

Western Oz:
Things settle down in Western Australia, as the allied navy retires. I was prepared to go all in with all my carriers and then invade Eseprance by sea, as I deemed the tactical advantage was in my favour, but Michael got away just a day before, either by design or luck. I also found out that Esperance has mines. How many it's unknown, but a 4 digit number does not sound unrealistic to me. There are also a cr@pload of PTs and 55.000 troops, 420 guns and 300 vehicles. Under these circumstances, I decided to cancel the invasion and commit the 25th Army to Kalgoorlie, aiming to create as much delay as possible. With the aid of 550 land based aircraft I think my ground units can fulfill this objective, as Esperance airfield becomes ineffective/closed. KB2 will remain at Geraldon to protect my SLOCs and perhaps raid his. KB will leave the theater entirely and return to the Pacific.

After a day of sweeps by 80 Tojo and 27 George, and an airfield raid by 80+ Helen, Esperance is emptied of allied fighters, giving me complete control of the skies. 4 midget subs enter Esperance harbor only to meet their doom by mines. Naval strikes against his PTs do not occur for two consecutive days.


Burma:
Situation is still the same. The allied army is without supply at Shwebo and 1 hex west, bombed daily. His armoured brigades must be completely decimated by now.


SE Fleet:
CVs are spotted at Townsville, as well as lots of APs, LSTs and other transports. Michael demonstrates my inability to keep Horn Island open and even raid Merauke. 2 allied CLs and 8 destroyers raided Merauke at night, engaged 4 CAs and 4 destroyers of mine. The clash was inconclusive, but minor damage was inflicted to one of my CAs.

I hope to regain some at least some control of the Torres straight by the arrival of Mr George, mines, patrol boats, midget subs and more importantly, effective use of IJNAF. So far, no naval strikes have been launched against allied raiding TFs.


China:
Lanchow is bombed daily. Lately, his supply situation here must be dire, as I 'm observing a significant increase in destroyed/disabled squads. The Chinese are truly getting mauled. Reinforcements (5 divisions) arrived at Nigsia and are 10 days away. I will then attack Lanchow with over 3000 AV. After that, the remainder of the 21st Army will be redeployed to the DEI.

[MrBlizzard]

I wish to bring my experience hoping you'll not make same errors as me and knowing each game is different ![;)]In my game I had conquered W.Australia as you but after some good landings at Esperance and other town westward (don't remember the name) I lost all and my army was completely crushed, 4 divisions encircled and slaughterd. I wasn't able to stop his land troops even with air bombings and despite COMPLETE CONTROL OF THE SKIES... my opponent had carried with his army 6 american AA units, those units aren't like japan's , they heve 100 AA guns each and my fragile sallys coud't simply match with them...if they were under 12000 they took severe losses.
I think the key of W Australia is Kalgoorlie, when the Aliies own it they can call huge reinforcement from east by rail and the war become only land war were the bigger stack wins. Desert terrain has NO DEFENCE BONUS, is the same as open land, so the bigger and who owns more armor wins.
The desert terrain also is tanks paradise, they can overmove your land divisions and envelope them.
I hate west Australia , is a damned trap for Japan worst than Burma [:-]
Hoping you'll do better than me, I'll stay tuned

[Olorin]

Thanks for offering your thoughts Mr Blizzard.
Losing four divisions would truly suck. I don't hate Western Australia like you, but I do I hate Burma. [:D]

As you say, Kalgoorlie is the key. If it's taken, I intent to conduct a fighting retreat to Geraldon and then evacuate everything. At the moment, I wish to delay the capture of Kalgoorlie for as long as possible. I have 6 1/2 divisions, around 250 tanks and air superiority to do that. He has at least two American divisions (possibly a third one has arrived) and 300 tanks. I think for now the tactical advantage is mine and I will keep fighting until that changes (i.e. I lose Kalgoorlie or more allied divisions are brought by sea) OR until the end of June (that's when another 3 divisions form China, plus one bought out from the HI become available). Then I will take a break and rethink my entire strategy.

[Olorin]

May 23-25

Western Australia:
I just found out that Prince of Wales is still alive at Esperance, even after taking 4 torpedoes. I am having trouble to get my LBA to attack Esperance. Only once per 3 days they fly, even though there are no operational fighters opposing mine. In the only raid since my last update, the airfield is hit again and 4 allied fighters are destroyed. 50 Nells attack the port...to no avail. I will soon send KB2 to finish PoW off.

The 25th Army is 3 days away from Kalgoorlie, by train. The allied spearhead moves closer, when they get there I will unleash hell on them [:D]

Meanwhile, KB will move to Soerebaja and rest for a week or so.

SE Fleet:
Horn Island is attacked by heavy bombers, but it remains open. I have 250 engineers and lots of AA, so even without fighters I can move fighters in any day I choose. One air group is currently being equipped with the George at Rabaul. Once, it's operational I will move it to Horn Island together with 80 Tojo.

China:
The massacre continues at Lanchow, my bombers are truly causing havoc there. There are 1300 Chinese AV there and I'm bringing 3500. They have lvl 5 forts, but no supply and disruption must be sky high, so I think I have a chance. No big deal if it's not taken, as long as my tank divisions remain healthy after the attack.

[Mistmatz]

Interesting AAR, just finished reading up to the current state of affairs.

Regarding Kalgoorlie may I suggest a suicide LCU walking eastward on the Kalgoorlie - Port Augusta railroad. This way you will not be surprised by huge numbers of troops being railroaded into Kalgoorlie immediately after it falls. This should provide some breathing room for your withdrawal from West Australia.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Olorin

May 23-25

Western Australia:
I just found out that Prince of Wales is still alive at Esperance, even after taking 4 torpedoes. I am having trouble to get my LBA to attack Esperance. Only once per 3 days they fly, even though there are no operational fighters opposing mine. In the only raid since my last update, the airfield is hit again and 4 allied fighters are destroyed. 50 Nells attack the port...to no avail. I will soon send KB2 to finish PoW off.

in my game I hit it with 3 early on and thought it was done. Alas it limped to OZ and now I get the pleasure of seeing it's shells pothole my runways and blow my supply dumps quite regularly. Get it if you can. I'm sure you have checked, but leaders, moral and escorts make all of the difference.