The STAVKA War Diaries II - No Mehring please

[M60A3TTS]

Weeks 15 & 16 - September 25 & October 2, 1941

In the north, Mehring has taken Leningrad and wiped out most of the Leningrad Front. But the summer campaign is about over and his panzers formerly in the north are now only starting to reappear in the south.

The area around Vyshny Volochek east of the Valdai remains quiet.

In the area where the German AGC is located, they are busy fending off attacks from seven Soviet armies near Smolensk.

Committed units:
STAVKA 16th, 50th Army
Kalinin Front 24th Army
Western Front 3rd, 4th, 10th, 13th Armies

Farther south, Mehring is making some sort of attempt to drive north with PG1. There is sufficient strength now with troops of Southwestern Front and STAVKA reinforcements to thwart any deep advance.

Despite the losses in the far north, Red Army troop strength is still 1.6 million more than that of Wehrmacht forces.

In the air war, Soviet pilots have now downed 323 Axis planes, with AA defenses accounting for another 976 fascist aircraft.

[M60A3TTS]

Remnants of Leningrad Front



East of the Valdai Hills



Smolensk Operations



West of Tambov

[janh]

Interesting how this continued... Didn't expect that hop to Voronezh, expected more a northerly drive of the southern Panzer fist to unhinge the forces locking down AGCs infantry. Could you post a large scale map next time?

Looks like he is poised to strike at Moscow now with northern pincer via Torzhok and Kalinin, and the southern one that is already well east of the Tula-Kaluga line now. I would say the southern one, in open Panzer terrain, is the actual danger. The northern one will probably run out of steam in the woods and swamps before it reaches Moscow. But maybe I underestimate Mehrings tankers?

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: janh

Interesting how this continued... Didn't expect that hop to Voronezh, expected more a northerly drive of the southern Panzer fist to unhinge the forces locking down AGCs infantry. Could you post a large scale map next time?

Looks like he is poised to strike at Moscow now with northern pincer via Torzhok and Kalinin, and the southern one that is already well east of the Tula-Kaluga line now. I would say the southern one, in open Panzer terrain, is the actual danger. The northern one will probably run out of steam in the woods and swamps before it reaches Moscow. But maybe I underestimate Mehrings tankers?

He only has one more clear weather turn, and even with 3 snow turns, it's too late to threaten Moscow this year.

[hugh04]

A very interesting AAR. Only humans could come up with such a front line. Amazing to see a soviet guard making offensive around smolensk in 41. Lack of progress here could be a real danger for the axis. However, the very weak center is balanced by incredible success in the south and the north.

The North has completely collasped, and the key valdia hills region (which is a real pivot point) is in axis hands. In the south looks like crimea has fallen, rostov looks like a goner and vornezh has been taken. Amazing success and many population centers overrun. How much of this southern success can be reversed in blizzard? The soviet will start way forward in the center for 42, but will have poor northern and southern positions. My question is can the soviet fight a 42 battle of titans so far in front of moscow? Did Terge recently answer that question?

The strong soviet army will need to recover alot of terrain this blizzard and the axis offensive is still not over. If Mehring can come up with one more suprise this could really turn into a thriller.

vandev

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: vandev

A very interesting AAR. Only humans could come up with such a front line. Amazing to see a soviet guard making offensive around smolensk in 41. Lack of progress here could be a real danger for the axis. However, the very weak center is balanced by incredible success in the south and the north.

The North has completely collasped, and the key valdia hills region (which is a real pivot point) is in axis hands. In the south looks like crimea has fallen, rostov looks like a goner and vornezh has been taken. Amazing success and many population centers overrun. How much of this southern success can be reversed in blizzard? The soviet will start way forward in the center for 42, but will have poor northern and southern positions. My question is can the soviet fight a 42 battle of titans so far in front of moscow? Did Terge recently answer that question?

The strong soviet army will need to recover alot of terrain this blizzard and the axis offensive is still not over. If Mehring can come up with one more suprise this could really turn into a thriller.

vandev

I will rebuild the Leningrad Front during the mud turns. With the free units returning and 300k of manpower I should see, that will be plenty and even allow me to prepare to bring the Volkhov Front on line.

The south will be more of a challenge, but retaking Voronezh will be a simple matter. At this stage, I have to make decisions regarding the strategic direction of the blizzard offensive. The Western Front attacks are all part of hardening the Red Army. I'd rather do this than throw them in the way of marauding panzer divisions.

[HITMAN202]

M60... Am enjoying yourr AAR. Mehring will face insurmountable problems the next 20 turns. I'm struggling to prepare for blizzard in my game against THEPROS and I have stable lines, everyone is in supply, the lines are straight. I am having difficulty planning effectively. Mehring's forces are so commiitted to the offensive (and he's probably planning a winter campaign also) he'll have little blizzard preparation.

I've never played as the Soviets post turn 17, but as the Axis I have feared having an exposed sector of my front that is out of supply swarmed by Russian units on turn 17. I don't think that an aggressive German response during the 3 snow turns could stabilize the hell so produced on turn 17. The blizzard snowball effect that Pelton talks about would start on turn 17 !!! ???? Thoughts ???

[hugh04]

I would not be suprised at all if axis units are out of supply range in mud. Rail head can't be much past poltava and D town. I had a tough time keeping my stalino spearhead in supply in another game. Rostov and voronezh would have been deep red on turn 18. I bet you can attack axis units that are isolated as a result of long supply lines, even in mud. This is going to be a fun couple of turns to watch.

vandev

[M60A3TTS]

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

M60... Am enjoying yourr AAR. Mehring will face insurmountable problems the next 20 turns. I'm struggling to prepare for blizzard in my game against THEPROS and I have stable lines, everyone is in supply, the lines are straight. I am having difficulty planning effectively. Mehring's forces are so commiitted to the offensive (and he's probably planning a winter campaign also) he'll have little blizzard preparation.

I've never played as the Soviets post turn 17, but as the Axis I have feared having an exposed sector of my front that is out of supply swarmed by Russian units on turn 17. I don't think that an aggressive German response during the 3 snow turns could stabilize the hell so produced on turn 17. The blizzard snowball effect that Pelton talks about would start on turn 17 !!! ???? Thoughts ???

I agree that Mehring may well try in the last snow turns preceding the blizzard to get a few more licks in. The air recon shows no fort belts of consequence, so he'll have few places to hide when the offensive changes hands.

As far as his supply situation, he is beyond the 100MP mark in the Rostov area, but I don't have a wealth of troops to commit there either. Rostov holding out has been an unexpected surprise. Interestingly, guess who's holding his flank near Rostov? Hungarians, Italians, Rumanians. Hmmmm...

[M60A3TTS]

Week 17 & 18 - October 9 & 16, 1941

The summer campaign has ended as the rains move in. Mehring's little northerly jab west of Tambov amounts to nothing as he pulls back slightly. The Leningrad Front begins reconstitution. At this stage, Mehring has his panzer and motorized divisions redeployed, but there is no real movement at this stage. Red Army forces continue to hold ground on the outskirts of Smolensk.

I'm going to gather up enough transport aircraft and what few airborne brigades remain and see if they can't be used in the coming weeks.

[M60A3TTS]

Smolensk



Orel-Tula



Rostov



Farming of the Guards, or, Seven is my Lucky Number

[Peltonx]

Nice job.

Holding the area west of Moscow to landbridge is a huge advantage come bliizard as SHC can strike north, west or south out of this area.

I am expecting you to have a good blizzard and the game will be over as we have seen now lately.

Bomazz, Sapper and others have gotten thier clocks cleaned during blizzard. I bleive its 8 out of 10 GHC players have had to surrender mid 42.

If one looks down through the last 6 months of AAR's very very few game's progress into 1943 as SHC 41/42 blizzard is simply way over powered still.

Moscow has only fallen in one game MT's and in almost every game SHC is 5 milion plus by Dec.

The ammo bug and NM bug fixes will help to get games into 43, but the 1941/42 blizzard still needs tweaking and the 1943 conversion bug needs a major fix. Mybee then we will see 75% of game get to 43 instead of 75% of games being over by July 42

We finally getting a few games into 44, but the converion bug is killing GHC and not combat.

I would say M60 that GHC is at your mercy right now.

[Michael T]

I am very concerned about this morale rule fix. Soviet morale is going to top out very quickly, so less routs, snowball, game over 41. Its going to be very very tough on German players now. 41 was already in the Soviets favour. It just got a whole lot worse.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Michael T

I am very concerned about this morale rule fix. Soviet morale is going to top out very quickly, so less routs, snowball, game over 41. Its going to be very very tough on German players now. 41 was already in the Soviets favour. It just got a whole lot worse.

True, but the current fact is almost all but a handfull of games even get to 43. Less then a dozen by my count after 1.06.13

Then because of WAD and not combat the GHC army collaspes in late 43 to early 44 no matter if one turtles or does better then historical.

Game is far better then a yr ago, but still needs allot of work before a high % of games get to 44+.

Hopefully wite2 will be better.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: Michael T
I am very concerned about this morale rule fix. Soviet morale is going to top out very quickly, so less routs, snowball, game over 41. Its going to be very very tough on German players now. 41 was already in the Soviets favour. It just got a whole lot worse.

True, but the current fact is almost all but a handfull of games even get to 43. Less then a dozen by my count after 1.06.13

It certainly has gotten harder when playing the German side, but right now it kinda looks fine to me. The moral thingy, yes, just like the many other things that popped up in the past year looks like another mechanism that can lead to a self-accelerating spiral. This game somehow has a very narrow "balance path", once you fall behind that things can deteriorate quickly instead of being cushioned by counter-balancing some rules. But I guess this was a design decision made to avoid running into WW1 stalemate games?

Regarding games under recent patches... you having to factor in the players and mistakes as well. Your game against Michael wasn't very representative for that count since you sort of announced your strategy and I'd say rather handed 41's victory to Michael by really big mistakes. The Valdai region between Ilmen and Seeliger See is not tank terrain at all, it is perfect defensive terrain. Also 41 is the time to spread out the Wehrmacht and exploit enemy mistakes, but not to focus and advance brute force on a narrow route. I'd say M60 shouldn't have chosen a similar strategy, too. He concentrated only better than two Panzergroups there, but he fell in the same trap. So I am not sure you can really read off much of this game either.

Doesn't matter, I think they should now tone down the blizzard rules or open them to modding. And then do something about the forced ToE changes as well.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: Pelton

ORIGINAL: Michael T
I am very concerned about this morale rule fix. Soviet morale is going to top out very quickly, so less routs, snowball, game over 41. Its going to be very very tough on German players now. 41 was already in the Soviets favour. It just got a whole lot worse.

True, but the current fact is almost all but a handfull of games even get to 43. Less then a dozen by my count after 1.06.13

It certainly has gotten harder when playing the German side, but right now it kinda looks fine to me. The moral thingy, yes, just like the many other things that popped up in the past year looks like another mechanism that can lead to a self-accelerating spiral. This game somehow has a very narrow "balance path", once you fall behind that things can deteriorate quickly instead of being cushioned by counter-balancing some rules. But I guess this was a design decision made to avoid running into WW1 stalemate games?

Regarding games under recent patches... you having to factor in the players and mistakes as well. Your game against Michael wasn't very representative for that count since you sort of announced your strategy and I'd say rather handed 41's victory to Michael by really big mistakes. The Valdai region between Ilmen and Seeliger See is not tank terrain at all, it is perfect defensive terrain. Also 41 is the time to spread out the Wehrmacht and exploit enemy mistakes, but not to focus and advance brute force on a narrow route. I'd say M60 shouldn't have chosen a similar strategy, too. He concentrated only better than two Panzergroups there, but he fell in the same trap. So I am not sure you can really read off much of this game either.

Doesn't matter, I think they should now tone down the blizzard rules or open them to modding. And then do something about the forced ToE changes as well.

My game vs MT was a lab rat game to prove the fact that if you turtle vs the best or not the game will end in late 44 or early 45 because of issues I saw in Tarrhunnas vs Grids and Kamil vs Pelton. Could not put my finger on it at time.

Issues I thought were armaments related, have been proven to be more or less conversion related.

The fact that the ammo bug and NM were fixed after the game was put on hold (lines still easly holding just before mud season 43) and now the game being bugged by conversion bug starting 11/42 shows turtling after turn 17 will easly get GHC to early 45, the same as poeple getting to and holding better then historical lines.

Once conversion bug is removed then turtling is not an option as time and distance matter. GHC simply does not fall apart becuase of WAD and not combat.

[carlkay58]

I definitely think the moral fix was necessary - and something that 'disappeared' in 1.06 somewhere. I was play testing 1.07 and I had a Soviet army sit for 10 turns back near Stalingrad in 1941 and still did not have a morale of 40 in any of the twelve divisions. Definitely wrong.

A tougher 1941 Soviet army may see Leningrad and Rostov being held a bit more than lately. The big deal is that it could improve the Axis in the long run - especially in recovering from 41-42 Winter and from any losses that occur later in the game. This should help the Axis last into late 44 or early 45. There is still too much 'pro-offensive' tilt to the game, but hopefully WitW will help even that out more.

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

I definitely think the moral fix was necessary - and something that 'disappeared' in 1.06 somewhere. I was play testing 1.07 and I had a Soviet army sit for 10 turns back near Stalingrad in 1941 and still did not have a morale of 40 in any of the twelve divisions. Definitely wrong.

A tougher 1941 Soviet army may see Leningrad and Rostov being held a bit more than lately. The big deal is that it could improve the Axis in the long run - especially in recovering from 41-42 Winter and from any losses that occur later in the game. This should help the Axis last into late 44 or early 45. There is still too much 'pro-offensive' tilt to the game, but hopefully WitW will help even that out more.

The only reason there is so much offensive tilt in 44 to 45 is because of the conversion bug. GHC CV falls because no rifle squads are being produced not because of combat as can be seen in the tech threads.

Once this is fixed then you see a much much more balance game, with the majority ending near turn 212 and being SHC minor wins or draws.

Most games end now in late 44 or early 45, better then 41/42 but still short of historical.

A unit that is X cv in 41 and see next to nothing in combat in 43 should have the same CV, but they don't unless they are one of the 25 out of 350+ divisions that convert the rest simply die on the vine.

In a nut shell 11/42+ on going games.

ORIGINAL: rmonical

So it sounds like this is not a problem for WITW as the slow upgrades can be addressed in scenario design. The WITE scenarios can be "fixed" by restoring the upgrade path.

The problem then goes back to all the armaments points "locked" in the pool by "upgrading" some 35,000 rifle squads of various flavors in 1943.

[M60A3TTS]

WEEKS 19-22 Oct 23-Nov 13 1941

The rainy season came and went. Mehring has launched Operation Typhoon in the form of limited attacks to encircle some final units before blizzard.

The Leningrad Front continues reconstruction. I am also preparing for the arrival of the Volkhov Front next week. 1st Shock Army that will be commanded by Alexandr Vasilevsky with what will be 4 guards cavalry corps are gathering south of the Rybinsk Reservoir. STAVKA has already ordered up supporting tank battalions to be attached to 1st Shock Army.

There is little activity in the south, aside from bringing up additional Red Army units.

[M60A3TTS]

Front lines and German attacks



OOB and casualties



Army in training