n01487477(Damian) Vs. Nemo121

[obvert]

My view now after getting to 44 is that Suva and Noumea are counter-productive to Japanese interests in light of economic concerns and the length of the LOC to support them.

Why not just abandon the entire Southern perimeter and focus closer to home, especially while you have the CV advantage to be able to knock the Allies out of the North? Leave a naval guard on each base and some supply, and move everything else back up, I'd say.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: obvert

My view now after getting to 44 is that Suva and Noumea are counter-productive to Japanese interests in light of economic concerns and the length of the LOC to support them.

Why not just abandon the entire Southern perimeter and focus closer to home, especially while you have the CV advantage to be able to knock the Allies out of the North? Leave a naval guard on each base and some supply, and move everything else back up, I'd say.

My thinking exactly, I never even wanted to go down Sth in the beginning... but if I hadn't maybe I would not be in such a good position in the Pacific right now...

Anyway, loading my troops now and getting them back to where they are needed.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: obvert

My view now after getting to 44 is that Suva and Noumea are counter-productive to Japanese interests in light of economic concerns and the length of the LOC to support them.

Why not just abandon the entire Southern perimeter and focus closer to home, especially while you have the CV advantage to be able to knock the Allies out of the North? Leave a naval guard on each base and some supply, and move everything else back up, I'd say.

My thinking exactly, I never even wanted to go down Sth in the beginning... but if I hadn't maybe I would not be in such a good position in the Pacific right now...

Anyway, loading my troops now and getting them back to where they are needed.

I think they're useful as bait for a weaker USN PacFleet in the early war, but not much else.

I do think Rabaul is essential, though - too close to the Marianas. I know you said you would have maybe stopped at Manus, but it takes longer to build up from nothing as well as leaving Rabaul as a jumping-off point for your opponent. Better to take it and probably stop there, IMO. Even if he skips retaking it later, he still has to skirt it if you've built it up.

[floydg]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: obvert

My view now after getting to 44 is that Suva and Noumea are counter-productive to Japanese interests in light of economic concerns and the length of the LOC to support them.

Why not just abandon the entire Southern perimeter and focus closer to home, especially while you have the CV advantage to be able to knock the Allies out of the North? Leave a naval guard on each base and some supply, and move everything else back up, I'd say.

My thinking exactly, I never even wanted to go down Sth in the beginning... but if I hadn't maybe I would not be in such a good position in the Pacific right now...

Anyway, loading my troops now and getting them back to where they are needed.

I definitely drew you in with my fouled attempts to reinforce the area. Honestly, I don't see the value in taking the bases you did and then stopping. You shouldn't have let me retake Norfolk Island and you should have built up the bases at the edge. Only that would have disrupted my lines -- all you did was spread yourself out and make me spend a few more days making a wider run to NZ/OZ. Just my thoughts...

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: floydg

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: obvert

My view now after getting to 44 is that Suva and Noumea are counter-productive to Japanese interests in light of economic concerns and the length of the LOC to support them.

Why not just abandon the entire Southern perimeter and focus closer to home, especially while you have the CV advantage to be able to knock the Allies out of the North? Leave a naval guard on each base and some supply, and move everything else back up, I'd say.

My thinking exactly, I never even wanted to go down Sth in the beginning... but if I hadn't maybe I would not be in such a good position in the Pacific right now...

Anyway, loading my troops now and getting them back to where they are needed.

I definitely drew you in with my fouled attempts to reinforce the area. Honestly, I don't see the value in taking the bases you did and then stopping. You shouldn't have let me retake Norfolk Island and you should have built up the bases at the edge. Only that would have disrupted my lines -- all you did was spread yourself out and make me spend a few more days making a wider run to NZ/OZ. Just my thoughts...

FUEL ... the limiting factor. But you are right, sometimes I don't go to the logical end of the decision tree.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

What the hell was I thinking when I made this economic mod?

Damian,

Sorry, but if I read this correct, you are "sc&ewed, blued, and tatooed". [;)]

15 Resource + 4 Fuel = 3 HI

That's a 25% increase in fuel requirements for your industry over stock.

By my calcs, Scen 1 has at most a 10% buffer in fuel against historical outcome. This is a tough calc because a lot of fuel usage is with the IJN, not the economy. This is supported by the few Scen 1 AAR's that we have had; the IJ players universally struggle with fuel for the KB. Suffice to say that the dev's have Scen 1 really pretty close. To knock that down by 25% ... ouch.

I think Floyd should have stuck it out. No matter his losses in 42 or 43. IJ in this scenario is really hamstrung.

My opinion:
You really need to run down your calcs and figure out how many days steaming per month you can afford for the KB. I suspect it will be single digit days. You then really have to hoard those fuel days and use them only in times of national distress.

Good Luck!

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: n01487477
What the hell was I thinking when I made this economic mod?

Damian,

Sorry, but if I read this correct, you are "sc&ewed, blued, and tatooed". [;)]

15 Resource + 4 Fuel = 3 HI

That's a 25% increase in fuel requirements for your industry over stock.

By my calcs, Scen 1 has at most a 10% buffer in fuel against historical outcome. This is a tough calc because a lot of fuel usage is with the IJN, not the economy. This is supported by the few Scen 1 AAR's that we have had; the IJ players universally struggle with fuel for the KB. Suffice to say that the dev's have Scen 1 really pretty close. To knock that down by 25% ... ouch.

I think Floyd should have stuck it out. No matter his losses in 42 or 43. IJ in this scenario is really hamstrung.

My opinion:
You really need to run down your calcs and figure out how many days steaming per month you can afford for the KB. I suspect it will be single digit days. You then really have to hoard those fuel days and use them only in times of national distress.

Good Luck!

Pax - yeah I screwed up in the scenario calculation phase. This was a test scenario for my hard economics options_88 mod. In reality the IJN didn't have much fuel to go by... Whereas, we play with KB out and about for weeks at a time... You are right though, the knock down in fuel was probably a little too much and will make it a tight proposition. I wanted to be have a sore Achilles, not ... hamstrung

... I'm hoping to limit operations after the attack on Attu is complete.

Oh yeah ... I'm screwed. But it may not matter too much as long as Fionn goes the China route

[PaxMondo]

You can hope and pray. Fionn though is a player who really just plays the player. He'll do whatever he thinks will get you off balance the most. So whatever, happens, just keep an even keel.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

You can hope and pray. Fionn though is a player who really just plays the player. He'll do whatever he thinks will get you off balance the most. So whatever, happens, just keep an even keel.

Yeah, he already knows me too well methinks But I hope I've become a better player than last we met.

I've just sent the turn back after an upgrade to the "h" beta.

The combat turn was a reminder why I should have taken back the turn and reissued orders Unfortunately, KB decided to visit Attu Is, where Nemo/Floyd had some CAP waiting. Lost a fair amount of TB's without any effect. The Allied CV's have disappeared into the blue. I think East or North, but Nemo assures my they've gone South or West

Near Daly Waters in Australia, Nemo tried to probe my defenses and got a little bloody - his only complaint for the day.

Meanwhile, the lone DD Fox (fitting for Nemo "Fox" 121) visited Hakodate but got slim pickings ... I do see another TF which may be on a path to Sakhalin as a spoiler as well. In Mr Fox's mind, this will disrupt my attention - but it is a good ploy I've seen before...

More pictures and theater breakdowns as operations proceed. Suffice to say, I've moved some assets around the map looking to fortify where I am weak and get into position for the counter-strike which will come.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

This was a test scenario for my hard economics options_88 mod. In reality the IJN didn't have much fuel to go by... Whereas, we play with KB out and about for weeks at a time...

The only two Scen 1 AAR's running now that I know of are Herb and Francois. Francois is still early, but Herb struggles for fuel all the time and the KB sits at anchor most of a month. And this is in a game where Herb got the upper hand in some early CV battles, so he is in relatively good shape. (although I think that Cantona is the master of SS warfare. Never seen nor heard of so many capital ship hits.)

Scen 2 is a different beast and results there are mixed as it should be. If you take a bigger area in '42 you can capture a lot more fuel than IJ historically was able to get. The one time I went into India, Calcutta alone gave me ~300,000 fuel. That is a huge bonus for IJ. Scen 2 allows the IJ player to do this, so you can't take anything in Scen 2 as a benchmark.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: castor troy

I'd call it crazy to land in the Kuriles in mid 42 in a PBEM. Just asking for a disaster (which it turned out already). If the players stick to it, it's great for the PBEM and for an AAR of course as it gives the Japanese the chance to have superiority all the way into 44 if the Allied realize too late that they have thrown away too much and just keep coming. Still, I wouldn't do it, but my games turn out to be pure systematic, boring advances from lvl 9 airfield to lvl 9 airfield of the Allied through 43 ready to land on Japan in early 44. Have had two of these lately and they both turn out to be nothing but boring, succesful but 100% boring.

Sounds like you need a walk on the dark side CT or maybe a change in direction [;)]. If you always do what you do and always get the same results, even if they are good, maybe it is time for a little experimentation or some time away ...
I'd hate you to burn out though.

yeah, absolutely true. My early games were more spectacular and exciting... [8|] on the other hand, I just couldn't do something when I can almost be certain to lose halve of my fleet or several divisions, no matter how spectacular it would be. Having played almost exclusively IJ in WITP it's now Allied in AE as I just couldn't touch IJ transport Tycoon up to now but I think it's not going to take long and I'll finally jump into it (if it is just to get out of the boredom of my ongoing Allied PBEM).

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: n01487477

This was a test scenario for my hard economics options_88 mod. In reality the IJN didn't have much fuel to go by... Whereas, we play with KB out and about for weeks at a time...

The only two Scen 1 AAR's running now that I know of are Herb and Francois. Francois is still early, but Herb struggles for fuel all the time and the KB sits at anchor most of a month. And this is in a game where Herb got the upper hand in some early CV battles, so he is in relatively good shape. (although I think that Cantona is the master of SS warfare. Never seen nor heard of so many capital ship hits.)

Scen 2 is a different beast and results there are mixed as it should be. If you take a bigger area in '42 you can capture a lot more fuel than IJ historically was able to get. The one time I went into India, Calcutta alone gave me ~300,000 fuel. That is a huge bonus for IJ. Scen 2 allows the IJ player to do this, so you can't take anything in Scen 2 as a benchmark.

Mine with JockMeister (Wild Sheep Chase-5/44) and Historiker (The Elephant Vanishes7/42) are both Scen 1 as well.

In 44 I feel the pinch. Can't imagine an even worse economic situation as in this mod. I'd love to try, but it'd be messy I'm sure.

[ny59giants]

Is it too late to go after the oil centers in northern China??

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert


Mine with JockMeister (Wild Sheep Chase-5/44) and Historiker (The Elephant Vanishes7/42) are both Scen 1 as well.

In 44 I feel the pinch. Can't imagine an even worse economic situation as in this mod. I'd love to try, but it'd be messy I'm sure.

Obvert, I couldn't remember for sure when I wrote my reply if your AAR's were Scen 1 or 2, but I did remember that you were having fuel issues as well. Sorry that my memory is faltering a bit.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Is it too late to go after the oil centers in northern China??

That time has passed my friend ...

19 August '42
Fionn did a lot of sweeps of Magwe with Hurricane IIb's from Akyab(?), Probably even results overall but I still lost about 13 Oscars. I'm still waiting on the Tojo which is due at the end of the month. The R&D was pushed back a month in the scenario.

He also played cute around Attu, with DD's sent there as a cap trap for my KB forces. Luckily, I had bombarded the base in the night phase and very few fighters got into the air. (pic included) [edit] As I had lost a load of KB's TB's the day before this was a tit-for-tat response

Australia is becoming very tenuous with a large attack on Daly waters resulting in the loss of many men. This was after a concerted grd bombing campaign. I had some Oscars and Zero's overhead but they got through anyway without escort. The fall back withdrawal of forces has been approved. I just don't have the forces in Scen 1, with the PP limitations to keep this for much longer.

Movement of LCU's continues...

[edit] If any of you have questions about Fionn's play ask away, I'm trying to give snippets as I go ..

[Schlemiel]

Based on the stricter economic limitations and the current situation, what are your thoughts on your naval construction industry? Is something radical like halting large warship construction on the table? I'm not an IJA player, but intuitively it seems that you could bank a lot of HI (and supply?) by just heavy abandoning warship construction at this stage and turning off a bunch of naval industry. The KB should be a competitive force for a good while anyway, and fewer ships means less fuel consumption. I'd also consider pseudo mothballing some of the big fuel guzzlers in economic ports and draining them for fuel to use on outbound resource convoys like some players do with their gas guzzling xAKs. You could always activate them in a dire national emergency

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Schlemiel

Based on the stricter economic limitations and the current situation, what are your thoughts on your naval construction industry? Is something radical like halting large warship construction on the table? I'm not an IJA player, but intuitively it seems that you could bank a lot of HI (and supply?) by just heavy abandoning warship construction at this stage and turning off a bunch of naval industry. The KB should be a competitive force for a good while anyway, and fewer ships means less fuel consumption.

Yes, I've come to that decision also. I plan on halting the Musashi at 120 days out - which I hate to do cause I've wasted a load of HI getting her 90% ready. I'll halt some late war CV's too and turn off the corresponding shipyards to save the HI. I concur that I do need to find a way to accumulate a little more fuel and I can't afford to run what I have. I still do want to accelerate one or two of the March '43 CV's though.

I haven't lost any yet, but Junyo is in DryDock in SIngapore for another 107 days and Kaga for 77 days at Kobe. Yamato was heavily damaged and is at Kure for 255 days (but that will reduce once I reach the 2-1 dry-dock ability and she goes below 20 float.)

I'd also consider pseudo mothballing some of the big fuel guzzlers in economic ports and draining them for fuel to use on outbound resource convoys like some players do with their gas guzzling xAKs. You could always activate them in a dire national emergency

It's a good plan but in this mod, I can't do that very well ... not enough TK's at present and Resources need to come from Malaysia, not just Hokkaido and the K-M-C. As I also have to ship Oil in this mod, I'm using the TK's for Oil/fuel and the large AK's for fuel / resources. Got two hubs; one at Singers and the other Manila.

20 Aug '42

KB still lingering off Attu. I won't stay around too long as I need replenishment. Really my SNAFU in all of this was not thinking 3 moves ahead. I should have had AP/AK's ready to roll out. Moved my troops from Rabaul, Suva and Noumea earlier when I saw this invasion and not got tunnel vision into taking back just the Kuriles but going for Attu earlier... So, I'm waiting to buy out a large LCU for the invasion. But have started the loading process and I expect that I can launch an invasion in 10 days.

I've lost the initiative somewhat and I know what 10 days can buy... Mines, resupplied CV's and his remaining SCTF's ready to pounce... but it is a necessary evil to go for it.

Off of Carnarvon, things are getting interesting and I'll update after the next turn. A Div and the 65th Inf Brig have been cut off for a while. My Inf brigade is doing rear-guard action and the Div is forging a way to Carnavon. I see that the hex side control still allows me to enter (even though last turn it stuck at 31 miles.) Fionn is moving a lcu down from Carnarvon to stop this...

Daly Waters became a river of tears as my Div was hammered. Went from 420 to 350 to 130 AV in 2 turns and was sent off into the wilderness. This was behind 3 forts mind you and 2 on the last turn. The Aussies are playing rough.

It will be a race to extract my troops from here too... pics later

Off of Akyab, Fionn has moved some MTB's, causing my Betty's to fly. No damage either way. But this just bolsters my opinion that he is coming in this general direction. Probing my forces and after the sweeps of yesterday ... well, let's see if I can get enough in place in time. I really don't have much AV in Burma and I think it is time to look at defensive positions on the coast rather than expansion in the interior.

Cheers.

[n01487477]

Economics for those interested

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

I've lost the initiative somewhat and I know what 10 days can buy... Mines, resupplied CV's and his remaining SCTF's ready to pounce... but it is a necessary evil to go for it.

No, you have not lost the initiative. You are giving it away for free. Like all his opponents you commence the match already defeated by Nemo's reputation. Your opponent will engage in several early actions, present them as being under his total control, distract you from following an appropriate plan, and be applauded by the peanut gallery as evidence of his genius (or the demonstration once again of the inevitability of the superiority of Soviet doctrine). When in reality it will all be smoke and mirrors to which, on the evidence presented so far by you, you will meekly acquiesce.

Now is the opportunity to assess deeply the structural ingame situation. Once you do that you will see that you, not the Allies hold the strategic initiative. When you do that you will realise what enemy actions can be simply overlooked because you hold the bigger stick.

1. According to Floyd, there are only 2 Allied CVs still afloat. The reinforcement pipeline remains skinny until mid 1943 when the Essexs come on board. This means that the Allies

(a) can't afford to launch amphibious landings away from LBA support unless they know for certain the KB will not turn up or there is no Japanese LBA present, and
(b) can't really interfere with a timely counterinvasion

2. Again according to Floyd the Allied losses in APs and xAPs has been horrendous (50% of the current stock). This severely limits available Allied sealift and impacts on how many and where, LBA covered amphibious operations are possible.

The combination of points (1) and (2) means that you have beaucoup of misallocated assets about eg

(i) aircraft on naval search searching for approaching enemy invasion fleets will largely be wasted. There will be much more profitable use of the long distance Mavis, Emily, Nell, Betty on other missions
(ii) no category 1 infantry units should be left in the south Pacific. You have already determined to repatriate most of your combat power from the region. That is a good thing but you can be even more ruthless in your pruning. At best you should only retain av sup to cope with any aircraft flown in to take an initial toll on enemy transports approaching. You should forget about undertaking any offensive or even defensive operations in the area. There is no good reason to keep the single carrier currently located in the region.

3. The lodgement in the Kuriles is not a threat. It will be months before the Allies
(a) can build up the infrastructure to support a strategic bombing campaign from them
(b) receive suitable airframes to conduct said strategic campaign
(c) build up the supply depots to sustain the campaign
(d) winter ends

In the meantime the lodgement is very vulnerable. In the north Pacific the Allied SLOC is much longer and more vulnerable than the Japanese SLOC. You know that Attu Island is currently overstacked with enemy airplanes (hence why you achieved such a good bombardment result). Whatever the Allies do in attempting to maintain their lodgement is going to impose a great opportunity cost on them and be inefficient.

You have identified a single north pacific operation. After it, what else? You need to be planning now for the follow on operations up there.

(i) use your restricted home island air units to LRCAP the airbridge to the lodgement. Don't just limit yourself to fighters, employ FP, FF, Nicks against the hapless Allied bombers/patrol planes
(ii) destroy the port facilities so that unloading from SS delivered supply is slowed down
(iii) isolate and starve Attu so that it can't serve as the airbridge terminus.

4. You have identified China, Burma and Australia where you expect the Allies to concentrate on. Quite logical as the shattered Allied navy is not required in those theatres. However, other than sending a few ships to Burma, I have not seen you outlay a plan to defeat decisively the Allied field armies.

It is in particular China and Burma that your opponent will engage in smokes and mirrors to make you think he has the initiative there when in fact it is you who holds the initiative there. Ask yourself these questions regarding China and Burma.

(a) is the Allied airforce comprised of superior quality airframes, particularly after the Tojo arrives?
(b) are the Allied airfields better developed and situated than my own?
(c) who has the better LOCs in the two theatres?
(d) on the present boundaries who can better survive a strategic industrial MAD campaign?
(e) who will be desperate to seize terrain to further their long term goals?

The answers to all 5 questions overwhelmingly favour Japan. There is therefore no objective ground for ceding the initiative to the Allies.

(i) Japanese planes have much better ranges which makes many Chinese/Burmese/Indian bases targets. Nemo either spreads out his airforce to defend them (in the process diluting his schwerpunckt) or his rear area is destroyed, also adversely affecting his schwerpunckt.
(ii) you have the airfields on railway lines which allows for both quick turn around of high SR airframes and better resupply
(iii) Chinese supply is awful and something which you must destroy NOW. In Burma you have access to the magical highway; you are not dependent on sea importation of supply whereas your opponent will be having the jungle barrier between the Indian railroad network and the Burmese bases.
(iv) it does not matter if the local Japanese supply sources are reduced to zero but it is the opposite position for the Allies. Supply is needed for offensive operations, not so much for defensive operations. Japanese importation of supply is not subject to successful interdiction whereas Allied importation is.
(v) that your opponent argued for immediate freedom to pursue strategic bombing is a dead give away as to what he intends to do. At the moment he is nowhere within range of striking at your vital industry, to do so he needs to make significant territorial advances. You on the other hand remain in position to strike hard at his vital industry.

5. What this all means is that you should right now start bombing Allied industry in China and India. The risk is very limited. You said Magwe has already been the recipient of concentrated Allied sweeps from Akyab. Two observations immediately strike me.

(a) the Allied fighters are concentrated on the schwerpunckt, and
(b) what is so important about defending the airspace above Magwe.

Your Nells have extended ranges between 18 and 26 hexes, Bettys have 21, Sallys 12 and Lilys/Helens 11. All can strike deep at unprotected industrial sites. Your Mavis/Emily can range between 25-30 extended range and they can strike at airfields. So from Port Blair you can strike at the target rich cities of Madras (20 hexes), Colombo (22 hexes). From Magwe, Calcutta (10), Ledo (12), Assansol (13), Jamedshpar (13), Dacca (9), Chittagong (6) are within reach some even close enough for Japanese fighters to reach. Other airfields can also be used.

In China, the situation is even more promising for an immediate Imperial attack to destroy the supply sources of the Allied player.

Why defend against Allied sweeps. Use your own fighters to sweep the enemy from your target airfields or escort your bombers. Let his sweeps hit empty air. In the worst case scenario, so what if Magwe's oil and refinery facilities are reduced to zero. You are not going to lose the war because of that. And then what is the next Allied target within range. Whereas after you destroy the Ledo Oil/refinery facilities, Madras, Calcutta, Assansol, Jamedshadpur et al, how exactly does he support an allied terrestrial advance in Burma. And this is assuming those Allied bombers haven't been deployed elsewhere on other duties, oh I don't know, perhaps trying to maintain that airbridge from Attu to the Kuriles.

6. There are some important Chinese bases which you should be planning to capture now. Based on your strategic map it appears the Allies still hold 3 Chinese ports; Pakhoi, Kwangchowan and Wenchow. Besides being valuable supply centres for the Chinese field armies, they also provide and opportunity for the importation of Allied supply and troops. You will shorten your lines considerably once you capture these 3 ports plus make your South China Sea convoys much safer.

7. Northern Australia should be a fighting withdraw, not a retreat. You should not rush to abandon Darwin and Katherine. Elsewhere the IJA has no business being there. Whilst Darwin remains Japanese owned, any Allied advance into the eastern DEI is much more difficult. It is not necessarily a bad trade off to lose a div or two completely at Darwin but in the process deny Nemo the gift of time to choose his next target early. If you rush to extricate from Darwin you are left with the difficult situation of guessing where the next blow will be landed. Guess wrong and the 'saved" troops will be out of the picture contributing nothing to the next battle and facing the prospect of again being extracted to avoid being cut off.


I always say that a weakness is not a weakness if it cannot be exploited. Currently the Allies have more weaknesses that can be exploited. Chisel that thought into your memory. Even if Nemo strikes at what you think is a weakness of yours, and in all likelihood it won't be really a weakness anyway, he has many more weaknesses which are more detrimental to the Allied cause. Remain cool. If he strikes at something which is not important, just brush it aside as you would an Ozzie bush fly and if you swallow the odd one, well so what provided you have been consistently striking at his many weaknesses.

Alfred

[PaxMondo]

Alfred,

Always illuminating to read your thoughts. Thanks.

Damian,

Your fuel situation is beyond desparate. 18K fuel/day for your Navy ... ouch. You really have to optimize your merchant fleet and get overland from Singers working, and then crunch each convoy route you have and optimize it for ton/mile/fuel usage. Since this mod has moved everything around so much, I can't offer any specific suggestions. GOOD luck!