Perfection, of a kind, spence (A) vs fcharton (J), no spence, please

[fcharton]

September 13th 1942

Burma heating

The British are on the move in Burma. Two columns are moving south, one along the Akyab-Prome road, the second across the jungle from Kalemyo, and both have made contact with my troops guarding the area.

South of Kalemyo, the enemy has five units, I have the imperial guards behind level two field fortifications, and the guard armored division arriving in a few days. I suspect this advance is doomed.

The situation south of Akyab is more worrying. Three units, including the 4th British brigade and the 3rd carabiniers regiment, have made contact, three more are on the move. I have one overstrength guard division, behind level two forts, with a good leader. Experience is a bit low (58), but morale is excellent.  Two experienced Infantry brigades are closing on Moulmein, and I have another guard division in reserve in the plains, and a tank brigade in Prome, but if the Akyab column manages to break through, we are in trouble in Burma, until the Chinese cavalry arrives, that is. Tanks could be there in three weeks, infantry in six.

For now, I have transferred Sally squadrons to Rangoon and Magwe, and am bombing the Akyab column. Their supply should move slowly as is it still moonsoon season here, and we probably can delay them a bit.



Tuyun falls

That was all too easy. An infantry division crossed the river north of the base, and shock attacked, supported by the troops I already had there. All the defenders have surrendered, stack Yuan is no more.

Ground combat at Tuyun (74,51)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 33399 troops, 275 guns, 94 vehicles, Assault Value = 1152
Defending force 16137 troops, 186 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 248
Japanese adjusted assault: 359
Allied adjusted defense: 127
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Tuyun !!!
Japanese ground losses:
     710 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 68 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
        Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
     Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
     17750 casualties reported
        Squads: 813 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 675 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 14 destroyed, 0 disabled
     Guns lost 127 (127 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units destroyed 24

Meanwhile, the red Chinese divisions (stack Jin) and the corps attempting to flee towards the Kweilin railroad (stack Liao) have been eliminated. Nine stacks, and 57 units, are left in China.

The fall of Tuyun deprives the Chinese of their last “open” base (Changsha is under siege). This probably means most remnants units will now surrender instead of retreating. It also means my troops can now move into Burma. As a side note, all those surrenders brought the VP ratio over 3:1 again. I am at 3.01:1, close to the highest ratio of 3.09:1 reached at the end of May.

It is now a race to reinforce Burma. First, I need air support moved there, as I badly need bombers in this area. Transport squadrons from all around the map have been sent to central China. I am planning an air bridge from Wuchang to Kunming to Burma, and operate from Mandalay and other bases in central Burma.

Over New Guinea

My opponent is bombarding my bases, but his fighter cover seems to be less important than it once was. As a result, my zeroes are shooting down bombers.

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
     B-25C Mitchell x 5
     B-25C Mitchell x 6
     B-26B Marauder x 4
     P-39D Airacobra x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
     B-25C Mitchell: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
     B-25C Mitchell: 1 destroyed
     B-26B Marauder: 1 destroyed
     P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed

Japanese ground losses:
     9 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Are the fighters just on hold, or have they moved to another area (Darwin)? I am giving it a few days, and might then organize a sweep on Terapo and Port Moresby, if his guard is down, my opponent should live to regret it.

[GreyJoy]

Hi Francois,
 
  about China: with DBB with stacking limits the allied player has his chances to prevent any collapse of Chinese inner perimeter. Look at what NY59Giants is doing against Oloring in a DBB match
In my game against QBall i managed to advance only because QBall made some early strategic mistakes that let me penetrate into his perimeter...but it took the whole southern Army to do that and something like 600k additional supplies and yet i had to stop in early 1943 because i could'nt proceed any further...I soon abbandoned the idea of conquering Kumming, Tsuyung, Paoshan and Chungking because, with stacking limits, it was simply a dream.
 
About Burma: are you sure there aren't any more units in the jungle hexes advancing south? Your perimeter really looks incomplete... Katha is abbandoned and he could easily fly in some paratroopers... you better check it out!
Also i think, against a division in a jungle terrain you are right: those advances are doomed, but consider the possibility that those may be just feints to pinn down your best units, while more columns advances in the jungle hexes towards the Valley

[fcharton]

Hi GreyJoy,
 
I think there are cases of good defenses of China, even without stacking limits. AdmSpruance seems to be doing a good job at it in his current AAR (against Erstad, not a rookie JFB like me). In this game, I believe my opponent did two strategic mistake : not defending the sector between nanyang and Sian, and then the Tienshui-Kungchang area after Sian fell, and failing to defend Changteh, which allowed me to isolate Changsha. The more I think about it, the more I believe that whereas most JFB have a pretty good "overall plan" for taking China (clear the plains, march on Sian, and turn it north, move around Changsha to turn it into a salient, threaten Kienko and cross the rough terrain south of Sichuan with tanks, that kind of things), AFB strategies still remain to be formulated. Once this is done, we'll probably discover China is more defensible than we thought.
 
As for Burma, you are certainly right. I used to think the Allies couldn't advance before the end of the year (after Moonsoon season, and then take a couple of months to march in), and my plan was to have the China troops there in time (we have no PP for borders), but NYGiants is showing this can be achieved early on. Maybe the right strategy for Burma would be to deploy in Spring 42 a line of 'border guards' in the jungle, small units, company or battalion sized, meant to spot Allied advance, and shuttle the large 'masse de manoeuvre' the IJA would keep on the railway...
 
I can probably still work on such a plan. Let me see where I can press small units...
 
Francois

[JocMeister]

To be fair Ny59Giants is one of the better players out there and so is CR. To my knowledge those are the only two that have managed to hold on to China in any of the active AARs. Please correct me if I´m wrong.

I think fcharton is in a very good position to knock China out of the war. I know many people claim the constant collapsing of China is due to Allied player error. That is probably true to some extent but if the allied player has to play a perfect China without room for just a single mistake something is not entirely right.

In my second game (vs SqzMyLemon) I probably have lost about half the Chinese army and I´m still suffering from massive supply issues preventing me to recover disabled squads or reinforcing. Once China starts to go downhill there is NO way to recover. It will just spiral out of control faster and faster. This is perhaps my own personal pet peeve. Its hard to find motivation playing China when you know 6-12 month in advance it will fall regardless of what you do.

But I don´t think you should feel bad about conquering China fcharton. I don´t think any allied player starting a PBEM today expects to be able to hold on to China. If your opponent thought he could its his own fault for not doing his homework properly. Go for it! [:)]

[obvert]

Add Dan Nichols to the list of VERY good China defenses. He hadn't lost an inch in June 42 when he disappeared. ([:(])

Canoerebel seems to be doing well in spite of losing the central bases around Changsha. Or at least he is very optimistic about keeping the rest.

[fcharton]

Hi guys,

In this game, many 'sensible plans' emerged from an AAR. Against Cuttlefish, Q-ball proved the feasibility of an early move against the Timor-Ambon area, which is now a standard trick in Allied repertoire. Fortress Palembang was not a real option before Nemo showed how to implement it, and what it could mean. In China, I believe Fletcher was the first one who showed a total conquest could be achieved, but China first strategies were common for a while. Jocmeister, Joseph is by no means "new" to China, his AAR against Smeulder should prove that.

My feeling is that there are a certain number of "basic rules" when defending China which have not emerged yet. Once they are understood, China will become more defensible. As Jocke said, one of the reasons why we don't have them is that defending China doesn't appeal to most AFB, while conquering it is a good way for JFB to keep "winning" well into 1943...

I will take China out, this was my goal in this game, and it seems futile, now that Chungking is captured, to let the KMT avoid annihilation. I believe my opponent was warned: my previous AAR made it clear I'm interested in China. I just hope this doesn't take the fun out of his game.

Francois

[obvert]

This forum needs a historian! You might be the man, Francois. [;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: fcharton
I just hope this doesn't take the fun out of his game.
Francois

It probably will for a while. But as all things he will recover in time. Loosing China will probably in the end make it a better game for you with a more competitive Japan in late game. But that might be hard for him to see right now. You can always direct him to my AAR. I had lost pretty much everything there was to loose in 42 to early 43 including all the carriers...seeing how someone did it worse probably cheers him up a little! [:D]

[fcharton]

Music for today is Bach violin and keyboard sonata in G (here’s Gould: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nql0iet_SCU) , I found a violinist who wants to play it, so I’m learning the piano part, and the darn thing is full of notes…

October 3rd 1942

I can’t keep up with the AAR, but the game is moving forward. The second half of September was quite eventless.

In China, most of the KMT stragglers were eliminated, and the allies are left with three stacks: the Changsha garrison, a dozen units in the woods north of Sichuan, and two depleted corps in the woods south of Chungking.

In Burma, the Allied offensive along the coastal road did not succeed. The Guard division, with a good leader, resisted several rounds of bombardment and a shock attack, and tank brigade is two hexes away. South of Kalemyo, I am waiting for two indian divisions and two tank regiments to cross the river into a well-defended hex. Reinforcements from China are on their way. About 600 AV of armor are around Paoshan, and about 6000 AV of infantry are between Kunming and Tsuyung. We should be ready to counterattack in November.

In New Guinea, my opponent has been bombing Lae and Madang, I’m losing zeroes, and damaging his bombers, I am not sure this is a good use of resources. In the Solomons nothing happened, save a small unit that apparently landed on Rennel Island today. I suppose it was sub transported.

Overall, the situation suits me fine. My opponent is obviously prepping for new invasions, but the sinking of the Lexington and the damage done to Yorktown probably slowed his southern advance. This is buying me time to finish China off, and shift my main force to Burma, ready to roll on India.

My strategic plan for 1943 is clear now: yield slowly in the Pacific, while turning India into a mess, forcing the US to reinforce the Brits there, and therefore delaying their counterattack in the Indies and Pacific.

I have less time for the game than I used to, which means I am not playing as seriously as I should. The economy is still in pretty good shape, but I’ve let a few things fall behind, pilot training and convoys notably.


The carrier battle that was not, again

A strange situation occurred today, south of the Gilberts. For several days, my Mavis from Tabiteua were monitoring a slow moving carrier task force, south of Ellice islands, on a path from Suva to Hawaii. Reconnaissance suggested one carrier and a screen, and I was sort of thinking it could be the Yorktown, on its way to the yards.

I had four carriers cruising near Kwajalein, the two kakus, Hiyo, and Junyo (Kaga and Akagi just return to Truk after upgrade, and Hiryu is ready to sail to Japan. It is a pretty lightweight KB, but with two US carriers out of action, and most British flattops retiring now, this was acceptable.

And so, yesterday KB was ordered to sail south and intercept the slow CV… and found itself three hexes away from the concentrated enemy carriers, probably three of them in three task forces, maybe with escort carriers.

In the morning, search planes detected the enemy, CV Hornet was reported hit (whatever this means)

D3A1 Val has spotted CV Hornet at 141,141
:::::::: CV Hornet is reported HIT
Search D3A1 Val destroyed by CAP at (141,141)
Search D3A1 Val destroyed by CAP at (141,141)

… but no combat took place. Neither my squadrons nor the allies did fly (weather was overcast).
In the afternoon, both task forces were detected, but still no combat.

I don’t quite understand what happened. I doubt my opponent had no planes on naval attack in such a large carrier group. My squadrons certainly were ordered to attack, and the enemy was detected in the morning, and the range was short.

But anyway, I’m not keen trying my luck at a close range 4 vs 3 CV engagement. Reconnaissance suggests three 85 fighter+bomber CV task forces, probably the three remaining Yorktowns with their screens, against four fleet carriers, a Midway situation (except there are no land based aircrafts).

Discretion being the better part of valor, the KB has been ordered to disengage and sail away at flank speed, while the pipers and minstrels sing and dance. I considered ordering the screen for a night action against the enemy, but there are like 30 ships in three task forces, and my screen is made of two BB and half a dozen cruisers. They would certainly damage the enemy, but I’d probably lose all of them.

If enemy carriers retreat, stay put or sail forth at low speed, the carrier battle will not happen. If they try to pursue at flank speed, we might have one, and the KB is at risk, but so are enemy CV. I suppose I could live with a trade: the loss of my carriers would hurt in the long run, but the Allies do not get fleet carriers for a while, and running low on them would further delay them. Of course, a Midway-like defeat would make my situation very difficult, but I suppose my continental strategy can cope with it. It would sure make the game interesting too…



Changsha falls

The capture of Changhsa was the other big piece of news today. Compared to Chungking, it was an easy battle.

Ground combat at Changsha (82,52)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 87275 troops, 1646 guns, 1539 vehicles, Assault Value = 2150
Defending force 61721 troops, 431 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1277
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 1321
Allied adjusted defense: 325
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Changsha !!!

Japanese ground losses:
3841 casualties reported
Squads: 34 destroyed, 317 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 79 disabled
Vehicles lost 40 (1 destroyed, 39 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
62338 casualties reported
Squads: 2281 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 4420 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 235 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 534 (534 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 26

Changsha was the last enemy base in China. Only two KMT stacks are left (Qin and Han on the map above). Han will probably surrender tomorrow, Qin will take a few more days, or weeks, but anyway, the conquest of China is over.

Burma holds

On the road to Akyab, the British launched their second shock attack today.

Ground combat at 55,46 (near Akyab)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 14429 troops, 325 guns, 304 vehicles, Assault Value = 577
Defending force 13996 troops, 147 guns, 47 vehicles, Assault Value = 448

Allied adjusted assault: 510
Japanese adjusted defense: 1499
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
639 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 85 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1470 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 160 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 33 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 16 disabled
Guns lost 19 (1 destroyed, 18 disabled)

Assaulting units:
6th British Brigade
5th British Brigade
4th British Brigade
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
16th British Brigade
6th Medium Regiment

Defending units:
5th Guards Division

The 5th Guards are holding their ground. I bought them a good leader, they are behind level two field fortifications, and they are still worth 380 AV. The Guard Tank Brigade is two hexes away, and should reinforce the hex in two or three days.

The enemy counterattack in Burma is not going well. In a few weeks, my armored units will arrive in Burma, in a month and a half, I will have lots of infantry to relieve the guard divisions. If the British could just damage themselves a little more, this would help the counterattack.

[fcharton]

October 4th 1942

And then nothing happened

The carrier battle didn’t happen. KB retreated north at flank speed, and enemy carriers stayed around the same positions, now split over two hexes.

I suspect my opponent didn’t detect KB, for some reason (not enough planes on search, perhaps), and my squadrons did detect then enemy, but didn’t fly. An opportunity was probably missed, since a first strike from KB would probably have sunk another carrier or two. But then, this also suggests that enemy carriers are on a mission, and my opponent doesn’t realize KB is around.

What are enemy carriers doing here? Since they don’t seem to be moving towards Hawaii, or returning to Suva, the only reason I can think of would is supporting an invasion of Tabiteua.

KB will remain in range, and the rest of my carriers will join them. If an invasion is on the way, this might be the perfect time to sink a few transports.

The last redoubts

The two stacks dubbed Qin and Han are all the KMT forces left in China. Han was attacked today as a division and a brigade crossed the river from the north. The shock attack achieved 15:1 odds, and the two Chinese corps are probably close to surrendering.

Qin is being surrounded, and a regiment will attack in three days. This is probably not enough to defeat them, and an infantry division from Chungking is about ten days away, but it is probably safe to assume that China will be KMT-free by the end of the month.

The long march to Burma is on its way. Right now, the plan is to concentrate around Mandalay, and decide whether I want to advance on Kalemyo, or on the road to Akyab. The former seems easier, as Akyab is better defended, but holding the coast from Akyab to Chittagong has a lot of merit too.

I will probably test the waters near Kalemyo, and let my opponent do the fighting around Akyab. Once the armored spearheads arrive from China (in about two weeks), I will need to decide if I try to send those tanks into the jungle, on Kalemyo, and then towards Ledo, or just move them along the coast, to break the enemy attack. Then I need another month for the infantry to arrive.

Slower days

This week was the slowest in our game so far, with only four turns exchanged. My daughter is taking on of those big exams we have here. You prepare it for two or three years, can try two times, they pick 75 out of 2500 students, and there is only one school. Talk about elitism!

The first part of the exam consists in six six hours exams, either essays or translations, which selects the 180 lucky people for the second round in June. She had four this week, the last one, today, being a translation and commentary from Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath. Yesterday the philosophy subject was “cause” (yeah, just one word, grab it and run with it, son), and the history subject was “The French and their Army, 1851-1945”. So I spent most of the week cheerleading. She is very unlikely to succeed this year, or even next year, but those exams are good nevertheless, they build character…

Next week, I “have” Latin and Greek, and then my opponent is out for holidays in Eastern Europe. So the game will probably be slower until mid may. I will try to use the time to work on, and discuss the economy.

[PaxMondo]

Trust the exams go well.

[fcharton]

The daughter’s exams are over, my opponent is touring Central Europe, and I’m enjoying one of those long bank holidays the French are famous for. The game has been moving forward, at a slow pace, we are now in mi- October and little is happening. I suppose this is the right time to try and catch up with the war, and discuss various aspects.

October 12th 1942

War on the continent
[/b]
China is now down to one KMT stack, which took refuge in the mountains between Kienko and Ankang. Several divisions are on their tracks, it might take a week or two, but the campaign is effectively over, and this theater should be comfortably mine for two and half years.

In Burma, an Indian Division crossed the river, south of Kalemyo, on the 7th. I had a Thai division, and the guard armored division waiting, and so it was a bit bloody, and the counterattack, the next day, left them no chance. On the 8th, the Imperial guards also attacked, and defeated an armored brigade south of Kalemyo. This concludes the allied offensive towards Mandalay. I have ordered the Imperial Guards to march on Kalemyo, but might change my mind in a few days, and wait for the reinforcements from China instead.

There are no signs of Allied advance in upper Burma. I have token forces there which should be enough to delay the enemy, until the boys from China arrive.

The road to Akyab is the next battlefield. The Allies are reinforcing, I have added a tank brigade to the guard division. Akyab is where all my armored elements from China are going.

My plan for Burma is to wait for the reinforcements from China. So far, the enemy is fighting over extended supply lines, and damaging himself attacking my positions. I hope this can continue for a month or two. Then, I will have about 7000 AV in Burma, ready to move into India by early 1943. I believe I should have enough to break through, either from Kalemyo, Akyab or Ledo, threaten auto-victory in mid-43 by capturing India (or at least a large part of it), and force the US to reinforce this theater.

War in the Pacific

This was pretty calm too. Enemy bombers have been attacking Madang, and then Lae, and then Wau, and by the time they were finished, Madang was repaired, so they turned back to attacking it… The New Hebrides and Solomons are pretty calm. I am running supplies from Truk, enemy bombers try to sink my cargos, I shoot enemy bombers.

Preparations seem to be underway in the Central pacific. Ships were detected in Funafuti, and enemy carriers were spotted north of Fiji. This suggests a move on Tabiteua, which my opponent is welcome to, and Tarawa, which should prove a much harder target.

Finally, a carrier task force, probably just one carrier and a few escort ships, raided the Kuriles yesterday, and sank a coastal minelayer in Paramushiro. I have sent a few zeroes to Ketoi Jima, in case my opponent tries a second raid, but I am playing dumb there.

So, here I am, in October 42, with two theaters: one when I am, or will soon be, on the offensive, and intend to go on attacking throughout 1943, and the other one where I am in a defensive posture already. The fall of China frees an awful lot of units, which should be redeployed in Burma, Indochina, or in the Pacific. In the long run, I am shooting for a fairly small inner perimeter, Marianas, Philippines, and the continent, definitely, but probably Borneo, Sumatra and bits of the Celebes. This is where I intend to redeploy my Chinese troops, and those troops freed elsewhere.

Meanwhile, I have not been playing very seriously, and a lot of game aspects must be corrected. So here is the first of a series of updates on the situation, and future plans. 

State of the Empire

The economy is fine so far. Fuel reserves are over 7.5 million tons, up 8k per day these days. Oil is around four million, and resources over 15 million tons. Supplies are a little under 5.5 million tons, slowly increasing. I have 1.7 million HI points in the bank, and am saving over 7000 more every day. Vehicle and armament stocks are at 16k and 32k, and up.

Resource convoys to Japan are working: the home islands now have stable resource stocks, around four million tons, and Pusan is nicely drawing resources from China and Indochina. I still have large untapped resource stocks in the Indies, and will probably try to bring back those close to the continent. I won’t bother about Ocean Island, Nauru and other forlorn places.

Oil is ok. Half my reserves, two out of four million tons, are in Japan, but I am not importing enough, and my stocks should run low in 1944 if nothing is done about it. There are about 1.5 million tons on the continent, one million which seem to be stuck in Singapore. I am considering operating a very large convoy from there. There are about half a million tons to be collected, notably in Balikpapan (200k) and Palembang (100k). But right now, the main problem is less getting the oil from the fields to the hubs (Singapore), than bringing it back to Japan.

Fuel is pretty much the same as oil, just slightly worse. Japan has a hefty supply of 2.4 million tons, more than a year worth of usage, but the stocks in Singapore keep increasing and never seem to go down. I certainly need convoys, or something.

Supplies are the part that needs to be corrected. I have transferred huge amounts to China in order to support the offensive here, and stocks in the home islands are running low, at only one million tons. This is easy to correct, though.

I am considering growing the industry and the refineries in China and Manchuria, as those factories would probably remain undamaged late in the war, and this might help use resources locally.

Plane production

I am producing 1060 planes per month, more than 60% of them fighters. PDU off constrains my plane production, but so far, not too many errors were done. I overproduced Oscars IIa, and didn’t accelerate the Kawasaki Ha-60 enough, so the Tony was ready a month before its engine. I can live with that.

Next month, we get the Oscar IIb, the A6M5 and the Tony at last. Then in December, we should have the SallyIIb, the Judy, and that weird two engine fighter (ki-46 KAI, that is used by only one group, but sports a 37 mm cannon, which should prove deadly against enemy 4E).

Engine production is keeping up with the frames, I am using too many planes to build pools, but then, so is my opponent, I suspect.

My main problem, at the moment is training and air support.

I am badly lacking trained pilots, especially Navy pilots, because I probably committed too many Zero squadrons to frontline duty. I need to replace them with army squadrons, and use more squadrons to train, especially my KB pilots. I need to better organize training, too. Moving over all squadrons, I found a decent number of pilots with ASW skill around 70. I probably have enough to man two squadrons of Helens, and then a third that arrives in a few weeks. My idea is to use the Helen as my main ASW platforms, and small Sonia groups as training outfits.

[fcharton]

Music for today is Schnittke’s Prelude in memoriam D. Shostakovich, and Silent night
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7vzQ94nbEA[/i]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGUed4Ki8xM[/i]

October 13th 1942

Silent service

Along the coast of New Guinea, I-33 managed a lucky shot at an Omaha class cruiser. An explosion was seen, and the damage is probably heavy. The return strike did not achieve much. I am retiring in order to clear the detection level, but another submarine cruising in the area will try to intercept the task force.

ASW attack near Port Moresby  at 98,132
Japanese Ships
     SS I-33, hits 1
Allied Ships
     CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1
     DE Chew
     AP Crescent City
     DE Dent
     DE Talbot

My two squadrons of Helens are now manned with decent ASW pilots (skills in the 60s). One was sent to Kobe, to try and see whether something can be done about detected subs off Japan, the other one is in Manado, and will rebase to Truk or Manus. I want to use both in the Pacific, between Tarawa, Truk and Rabaul, and see whether good pilots can really damage enemy subs.

I am pulling all pilots with ASW skills in their high 50s now, and will probably man a squadron or two, to operate in the Celebes and in the Andamans.

4E fighters

Night raid over Rabaul, 14% moonlight, unescorted 4E bombers, but who needs escorts, and moonlight, then?

Night Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M3 Zero x 7

Allied aircraft
     B-17E Fortress x 4
     B-24D Liberator x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M3 Zero: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
     B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
     DD Oshio, Bomb hits 1

My zero pilots were decent (A2A in their 60s, but that’s probably not enough) and not too fatigued (less than 10 anyway), the A6M3 has 20mm cannons, which, I’m told, should work against armored bombers, and I have flak in Rabaul, and AA regiment, with two Ta-chi3 radars, and search lights and 88mm AA guns, and an AA battalion with 75mm AA guns, and a base force with 88mm DP guns, but they don’t seem to ever shoot or detect anything…

And unfortunately, this is not the first time this happens, about once a week, in fact… I will probably try to move Nicks in, just in case armor can make a difference.

There certainly is something I don’t get about air combat, but on a typical day like today, where most enemy bombers fly unescorted over relatively long ranges (12 hexes and more), I lose 15 zeroes to two or three enemy bombers, over my own bases.

I believe I’m doing things by the book, rotating squadrons, limiting fatigue to less than ten, keeping most pilots with 60+ air to air, resting them, never overstacking, but it hardly seems to matter.  I am all ears for any advice you might have, dear reader, and I am ready to be told this is normal, historical, and all that (even though, well, 1:10 odds, really…), but I have to say such situations where nothing seems to matter makes it difficult for one to care or even try to be serious.

I am moving more zeroes over Rabaul tomorrow. Let us see if it gets any better.

Harvesting pilots

As you might have guessed, the game is a bit dull these days. I am waiting for the last stack in China to die, for my troops to arrive in Burma, and I am watching my zeroes being shot down over New Guinea. I should probably spend some time reinforcing some of my front bases, but I am mostly killing the time combing my squadrons for high skill pilots.

So far I have been pulling high ASW pilots and sent them to two Helen squadrons. I want to see tomorrow whether they can sink subs. I also have noticed I have quite a few pilots with very high ground bombing skill (over 85, that is). I am considering manning one Sally squadron with those and trying them on some jungle unit in Burma.

The next step would be recon and naval search. I believe I can field a number of units with those high rating pilots. Recon would certainly be useful over Burma, naval search, I don’t know.

It is still early, but I am planning to report on the efficiency of such high skill squadrons, as a way to keep interest.

[fcharton]

October 14th 1942

More of the same

B17 and B24 came back over Rabaul today. I had a mix of A5M2 and A5M3a, most flying at night, and a squadron of A6M2 flying CAP during the day.

At night, 14 Zeroes fought 4 B17-F, flying very low (3000 feet) against heavy flak. One zero was reported shot, but five actually went down, for no harm on the B17.

During the day, two bomber raids arrived unescorted, about 30 bombers against 27 zeroes, and then nine vs nine. 12 zeroes went down for three B24. Enemy fighters (P38) arrived later, but there were no Japanese fighters left by then, so they did little damage. Net result is fifteen zeroes for three bombers, and half a dozen more destroyed on the ground. In an alternate reality world, you might expect bombers to have a hard time hitting runways and hangars when confronted with fighters and flak. Not here, or course.

Overall, those raids over Rabaul achieved 1:8 results, against fighters in equal number, and flak. Who needs fighters?

In another event, a squadron of Betties, escorted by Zeroes, attacked two coastal sweepers near Darwin. Both Betties and Zeroes flew low (1000 feet), enemy CAP (Kittyhawks 1-A and P40-E, not the best planes in the enemy arsenal) were in equal numbers and badly misplaced (18 000 feet), but still managed to shoot down 5 zeroes and 10 betties, ie half the attackers, for one Warhawk. I sank the sweepers, though…

Overall, I lost 40 planes today, to four enemies. I did check my pilots, and fatigue, and leaders, and do understand those might be bad rolls, and there might be some exquisitely well thought reason why this happens, but honestly, this doesn’t make for a very interesting experience, as the time invested in rotating squadrons, and pilots, and setting parameters, seem to be wasted when some game parameter, die roll or design, seems to trump everything and result in those 1:10 outcomes that NEVER existed in reality (the Mariannas Turkey shoot was like 5:1, and Midway less than 1:3).

I’m going on with the game, but I have to say I’m more and more disappointed as time goes by. The personal investment in such a long game, with such a steep learning curve, is huge, and it is only normal that a player expects something in return. As a JFB you do know that victory is not a likely outcome, so you would expect to achieve some mastery, or at least understanding of the system after several years of play. But you don’t, and your campaign seems to proceed from one frustrating outcome to another, and odds just get worse and worse.

[zuluhour]

… but no combat took place. Neither my squadrons nor the allies did fly (weather was overcast).
In the afternoon, both task forces were detected, but still no combat.

Do you have a percentage of the Kido Butai DBs and TBs on search? I find this always triggers a reaction from the USN perspective.

[fcharton]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour
Do you have a percentage of the Kido Butai DBs and TBs on search? I find this always triggers a reaction from the USN perspective.

I have. As a rule, I have between 20 and 40% of my squadrons searching. This seems to help getting a first strike. In this case, enemy carriers were spotted, and some of my search planes were even shot down by the CAP.

B5N2 Kate sighting report: Allied CV at 141,141 near Vaitupu , Speed 10 , Moving Northeast
B5N2 Kate sighting report: 2 Allied ships at 141,141 near Vaitupu , Speed 14 , Moving Northeast
D3A1 Val sighting report: 3 Allied ships at 141,141 near Vaitupu , Speed 16 , Moving Northeast
D3A1 Val sighting report: 4 Allied ships at 141,141 near Vaitupu , Speed 11 , Moving Northeast
D3A1 Val has spotted CV Hornet at 141,141
:::::::: CV Hornet is reported HIT
Search D3A1 Val destroyed by CAP at (141,141)
Search D3A1 Val destroyed by CAP at (141,141)

[fcharton]

October 15th 1942

Rabaul again

So, today, I stacked Rabaul with fighters, A6M2 and A6M3a, all the groups I could find. Rabaul is a level seven airfield, with plenty of support, so there was no overstacking.

The night raid featured three unescorted B17F, against 16 zeroes on CAP. The zeroes lost, of course, and the buffs managed to hit something, none of them being reported lost. The flak, as usual, was nowhere to be seen.

Night Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
A6M3a Zero x 8

Allied aircraft
B-17F Fortress x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-17F Fortress: 3 damaged

Airbase supply hits 1

During the day, 38 bombers were met by 52 zeroes. Two B17-E were lost to damage, a few zeroes were shot down, and 20 fighters were destroyed on the ground. Numerical superiority doesn’t seem to work, here.

Morning Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 49
A6M3a Zero x 3

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 14
B-24D Liberator x 15
B-25C Mitchell x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 20 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 6 destroyed on ground
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 6 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 3 damaged
B-25C Mitchell: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 22

But then, we took our revenge against the sweeping P38. At 45:8 odds, we managed to lose only a handful of planes, and shoot town SIX P38.

Morning Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 44
A6M3a Zero x 1

Allied aircraft
P-38F Lightning x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

And

Morning Air attack on Rabaul , at 106,125
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 47 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 40
A6M3a Zero x 1

Allied aircraft
P-38F Lightning x 13
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38F Lightning: 2 destroyed


Overall, with more than 50 fighters flying CAP over a large airbase, against unescorted bombers, and then sweeps by P38 outnumbered by more than 5 to 1, we lost 35 zeroes (20 to bombing, 15 to A2A) to 6 P38 and 2 bombers. Over the last three days, I lost 105 planes, to 30 enemies, mostly defending large airfields against unescorted enemy bombers. And we’re only in late 42. I can’t wait until 44.

There’s a silver lining, of course: the next turn took three minutes to play. One squadron put to rest in Magwe, more planes in Rabaul, click on end turn, save, email, and voila.

[obvert]

Overall, I lost 40 planes today, to four enemies. I did check my pilots, and fatigue, and leaders, and do understand those might be bad rolls, and there might be some exquisitely well thought reason why this happens, but honestly, this doesn’t make for a very interesting experience, as the time invested in rotating squadrons, and pilots, and setting parameters, seem to be wasted when some game parameter, die roll or design, seems to trump everything and result in those 1:10 outcomes that NEVER existed in reality (the Mariannas Turkey shoot was like 5:1, and Midway less than 1:3).

I’m going on with the game, but I have to say I’m more and more disappointed as time goes by. The personal investment in such a long game, with such a steep learning curve, is huge, and it is only normal that a player expects something in return. As a JFB you do know that victory is not a likely outcome, so you would expect to achieve some mastery, or at least understanding of the system after several years of play. But you don’t, and your campaign seems to proceed from one frustrating outcome to another, and odds just get worse and worse.

I feel your pain. Early in the war there were dramatically large Allied successes against bombing raids in the Solomons, usually the unescorted ones. The intel advantage gave the Allies a head's up that let them exploit a numbers and surprise advantage. The Japanese planes were not as well maintained and pilots and machines suffered from long range fights, the climate and even the volcanic ash mucking up the engines at Rabaul.

Some of this stuff can be shown by the game, some not so much. The large scale results though are an issue and it doesn't get better as you go. Prepare for the 10:1 days against P-47 sweeps where your best 70-80 exp pilots are uselessly lost and completely ineffective. Maybe through balancing the Japanese player's ability to control pilot training and production the developers felt it necessary to overpower advantages such as speed and dive. I can see that. Good Japanese players can stall the Allies' advance and the resulting cries as to the inequitable production system drown out any arguments against other balancing Allied advantages.

About your planes fighting 4Es. A6M2 just can't do it because of it's low durability. As you get into better versions they have more of a chance, but not much more. You need armor, canons (ideally centerline) and higher durability. The Nick is the only early plane that has all of those things, and they work. I'm still making them in mid-44 and will be until the Randy arrives (finally) later in the year. At night? Forget about it. No chance until NF come online, and they just take a 1-2 plane tithe and disrupt bombing, plus they don't die in droves like normal fighters used at night.

This game is frustrating in so many ways. My frustrations are actually naval at the moment, which is supposed to be the more accurately modeled part of the game, but still has a plethora of unplausible mechanics that will cause immense frustration in certain circumstances. In spite of all of this, for me it's still a lot of fun. [;)]

[fcharton]

Hi Erik,

ORIGINAL: obvert
Early in the war there were dramatically large Allied successes against bombing raids in the Solomons, usually the unescorted ones. The intel advantage gave the Allies a head's up that let them exploit a numbers and surprise advantage. The Japanese planes were not as well maintained and pilots and machines suffered from long range fights, the climate and even the volcanic ash mucking up the engines at Rabaul. Some of this stuff can be shown by the game, some not so much. The large scale results though are an issue and it doesn't get better as you go.

This pretty much summarizes my problem with the game.

Allied intel is already modelled, as is the lack of air support and various technical difficulties Japan experienced during the war. As a player, I am trying to fight that, by concentrating support on Rabaul, building the airfield over its standard size, not packing it, keeping my fighters there instead of having them escort, sweep, or work on long range missions, bringing in flak, and radar equipped base forces, keeping pilots trained and rested, and ranges low.

This, of course, comes at a cost. Rabaul is better defended, but the Solomons or other places in New Guinea aren't protected as they should, and good Allied intel means I can't hope to trick my opponent into believing Rabaul is undefended. I am fine with all that.

What I have trouble accepting is that all this preparation is useless, because some aspect of the model, which I failed to understand yet (after several years of play) seems to trump everything. I did detect the bombers, my fighters did scramble and fought and were shot down because even at night 3 B17 will fight 15 zeroes anytime, and shoot some of them down, and because during the day 53 zeroes and flak are greatly outnumbered by 28 bombers, and no, it is not the dice, this is the third turn in a row where this happens. This looks a bit strange to me, but the best was that none of this managed to disrupt the bombers, and prevent them from hitting a DD in port on a 14% moonlight night, or hitting 20 planes in hangars and doing 35 damage on a level seven airfield in a day. And I do realise this is only the beginning, it will just get worse and worse as the war goes on.

I still believe this is yet another manifestation of a real problem in the model. Outcomes tend to be very extreme, and this probably results from the fact that phases in a game turn are not correlated enough. Here, once the air combat was over, the remaining bombers could fly a perfect approach on the airfield, under clear weather, without flak or CAP. You have exactly the same kind of problem when a squadron of bombers falls unescorted into a CAP trap twice in a day... In real life, you tend to have more friction, which makes every victory more costly, and never as massive as you'd expect (again, look at plane losses for famous victories, everything is much more balanced than what we have in game), not here.

Of course, there is certainly something very special I could do about it, which might change the outcome, and once I know it, all this will seem oh so trivial, but I think this only proves my point that the model is way too extreme and deterministic, and it turns the game, from a japanese perspective, into a strange sort of "guess the model" riddle, where you spend most of your time trying to figure what happened, and why, and what you've forgotten or missed, and guessing correctly (or thinking you have) is your only reward, because it will only get worse as months go by.

From a player perspective, it makes the time spent building a strong defense a waste. In fact, the only solace I can find is that, since the system is very unforgiving, it would be even worse if I hadn't prepared. But then, the temptation not to care, and turn into some kind of "human AI", where you play the "red force" for your opponent, to enforce some long term commitment grows over time.

And this, by the way, is probably the reason why many of us write AAR, and socialize on the forum: AAR and talks about the game create the motivation the game sometimes fails to provide, just like compulsive micromanagement, or complicated calculations.

Francois

[obvert]

I agree to an extent. The most historically relevant tactics don't always pan out in game, which is too bad. Other tactics do pay off, but they are lessons learned over many hours and usually with much anguish involved! [;)]

The Babes might fix some of it, according to those who play it, but even in standard games the new betas should address some of these problems by the lack of the coordination bug. Not sure which version you're playing.

Once there is less coordination the model approximates different pieces of sky (and time) where combat is happening on smaller scales, and this will usually result in less extreme outcomes. It also leaves the defender an advantage of having more planes at the point of contact than the attacker. The flak is also somewhat stronger, although not quite at babes levels.

With babes the bomb effect is lowered as well. With advanced weather missions are more sporadic. All of those things will give a slightly better 'feel' to the air model, and I can't wait to try them out.

In the meantime ... I had one great thing happen to me in my second game very early on. That was a very unlikely scenario where a 22 knot BB TF caught up to the 28 knot KB and pounded it into oblivion without the embedded BBs offering any kind of a fight. It felt like I got shafted, in other words, but that moment also freed me once I made the critical choice to voice my concerns, applaud my opponent's good play, and make the decision to continue. After losing the biggest advantage the IJN has for the first year or more of the game I was able to take it more lightly, to play with things and take more risks, to not get too frustrated by a game so obviously limited by it's internal code and so defined by the computing era in which it was designed. It is the best we have, even though we all know it's failings. I'm having even more fun now than I did before I knew the limitations. [:)]

For now think about the advantages you have over historical. You can produce whatever you want and use the IJNAF and IJAAF to mutually plan and support each other. You can fly planes all over the map instead of needing to ship them on vulnerable transports. You can still hide your forces better than the Japanese in the actual war and get surprising results like bombarding well protected bases behind enemy lines that the IJN wouldn't even have considered. Your pilots can be uniformly quite good. You can mitigate some logistical issues they had by overloading certain bases and neglecting others. Your economy is not nearly as shackled by a lack of shipping and resources as historical. You know how much he will get in his fighter pools and can adjust your play accordingly throughout the game. You can develop and implement an entirely unhistorical ASW program on sea and in the air, and render almost useless the dominance of US subs. you can re-allocate forces from Manchuria and China all over the map and get the kind of engineers the Japanese could only dream of in the Pacific and other critical areas. You can replace crap leaders. Even in PDU off you can move the best fighter platforms to the front rather than letting them rust in Japan and China. There is a lot to be happy about!

Not to mention much better wine than the Japanese! And yes, also, you have us!