Hairy Yankee Reports: Q-Ball (A) v Greyjoy (J)

[JocMeister]

Regarding Burma,

I have told you how to do it. [:)] Sweep, sweep, sweep. Forget LRCAP and escorting bombers. Sweep sweep sweep.

I think you have given away too many easy kills to him so he has probably managed to build a good backbone of experienced fighters. You are now paying the price for it. It will cost you but eventually those pilots will have to be replaced by green ones. Once that happens you will start seeing good results if you can keep your own experience up.

I´ve done some experimenting lately with green pilots (EXP50/Air70/Def70) in Corsairs/P38s. You will still come out on top with perhaps 2:1 even against Franks. Problem is that the allies won´t have the pools to sustain the airframe losses with that ratio. So you need to rely on pilot superiority and I don´t think you have that now and that is your biggest issue. Your P47s should be piloted by EXP80+ pilots facing EXP50 pilots. Until you achieve that you won´t be seeing 6:1 and better results.

What does the total losses look like? How many P47s/Corsairs/Spit VII have you lost? What are you pools look like (both pilot and plane)?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
green pilots (EXP50/Air70/Def70) in Corsairs/P38s.

While your testing is interesting, I'd argue that these are not 'green' Allied pilots by most players' standards. These represent pilots coming out of a (several) months-long on-map training program and ready for frontline combat deployment.

How's your test for truly green pilots (EXP 50/Air 50/ Def 50) in the same planes? I'd reckon that the Japanese trained and experience pilots eat these guys' lunches on a 4:1 basis.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
green pilots (EXP50/Air70/Def70) in Corsairs/P38s.

While your testing is interesting, I'd argue that these are not 'green' Allied pilots by most players' standards. These represent pilots coming out of a (several) months-long on-map training program and ready for frontline combat deployment.

How's your test for truly green pilots (EXP 50/Air 50/ Def 50) in the same planes? I'd reckon that the Japanese trained and experience pilots eat these guys' lunches on a 4:1 basis.

Getting them from 50/50/50 to 50/70/70 is just a 1-1,5 month worth of training or so. Perhaps during 42 this would be necessary but hardly after that?

Personally I have never committed pilots with lower airskill than 70. But during the early days I cut back on DEF to first 50 and then 60. I don´t know how other people do it obviously but getting 50/70/70 is really quick work and this is my absolute lowest I would ever consider committing to battle. So these are my green pilots! They are usually stuck with backwater CAP for a 2-3 months before being pulled back to the reserve.

But if I would try with 50/50/50 pilots I agree with you. They would certainly be eaten alive despite being in superior airframes. So that would be wasting pilots and airframes. Something to avoid! [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
green pilots (EXP50/Air70/Def70) in Corsairs/P38s.

While your testing is interesting, I'd argue that these are not 'green' Allied pilots by most players' standards. These represent pilots coming out of a (several) months-long on-map training program and ready for frontline combat deployment.

How's your test for truly green pilots (EXP 50/Air 50/ Def 50) in the same planes? I'd reckon that the Japanese trained and experience pilots eat these guys' lunches on a 4:1 basis.

Getting them from 50/50/50 to 50/70/70 is just a 1-1,5 month worth of training or so. Perhaps during 42 this would be necessary but hardly after that?

Personally I have never committed pilots with lower airskill than 70. But during the early days I cut back on DEF to first 50 and then 60. I don´t know how other people do it obviously but getting 50/70/70 is really quick work and this is my absolute lowest I would ever consider committing to battle. So these are my green pilots! They are usually stuck with backwater CAP for a 2-3 months before being pulled back to the reserve.

But if I would try with 50/50/50 pilots I agree with you. They would certainly be eaten alive despite being in superior airframes. So that would be wasting pilots and airframes. Something to avoid! [:)]

Hi JocMeister,

I don't disagree with anything you've written, it's revolving around the definition of 'green'. By my definition, 'green' pilots are those fresh out of the replacement pool, NOT those that have undergone on map training. I too wouldn't consider deploying pilots until their various skill sets approximated those you've shown above (after map training). I don't consider those 'green' though.

Cheers,

Chickenboy

[JocMeister]

Ah, I see. Perhaps I should have written "Combat trained" instead of green! [:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Ah, I see. Perhaps I should have written "Combat trained" instead of green! [:)]

Aye. I think "trained" or "combat trained" would be more descriptive of this type of pilot that you're advocating. [8D]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I see your reasoning with LRCAP being more of a free ranging escort. But my experience is the LRCAP will pretty much guarantee success. As Erik says given enough numbers they can stay up all day protection virtually all incoming strikes and decimate the defending CAP in the process.

I very much doubt this was the intention of the developers. If so why put the escort mission in there at all? As I said I see your reasoning but using LRCAP instead of Escort is just too powerful. As long as I bothered to set the LRCAP up the defender would have almost no chance whatsoever to get to the bombers. That just doesn´t feel right to me.

Isn't LRCAP still constrained by ops points, or passes, or something? I ack that it hangs around for the whole phase--so does CAP--but CAP eventually runs out of points and lands. I see this all the time with multiple enemy sweeps. You're not saying the LRCAP is at the same effectiveness on every attack are you? For any N of attacks?

Well it can be variable and sometimes does not show up at all. So I don't think it is so uber as to need banning. However, not allowing it will mean unacceptable and unhistorical Allied bomber losses. I am in 4/45 in my game vs Ark and am very careful with my bombers. As it is I have virtually no bombers in my pools. Without LRCAP as escorts I would have no bombers at all. That seems wrong to me.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Well it can be variable and sometimes does not show up at all. So I don't think it is so uber as to need banning. However, not allowing it will mean unacceptable and unhistorical Allied bomber losses. I am in 4/45 in my game vs Ark and am very careful with my bombers. As it is I have virtually no bombers in my pools. Without LRCAP as escorts I would have no bombers at all. That seems wrong to me.

I am too very careful with my bombers. Even more so since I have never used LRCAP for escort. But I have managed to keep a healthy pool of bombers for most of the time. It has dipped on occasion and the RAF in particular have suffered some crippling losses at times. But I would say my pools are quite healthy. So its quite possible to play with a HR against using LRCAP for escort. [:)]

The biggest problem with LRCAP for escort isn´t the extra protection it gives the bombers but rather the losses inflicted by the LRCAP on the defensive side. As Erik says it looks like the LRCAP magically teleports up to specified LRCAP height after each encounter which gives the LRCAP dive after dive after dive. And we all know how powerful that is.

My personal view is that LRCAP shouldn´t be used as an intentional escort. Its just a deliberate circumvention of the penalties given to the escort role. But if both sides agrees its fine why not? But I think it greatly aids the allied side and hurts the Japanese.

[Q-Ball]

11-28-43

Greyjoy lauched an all-out raid on my fleet at Darwin. The results were not pretty; I lost 4 Old BBs, though we did shoot down about 600 planes. I won't post a combat report, because Greyjoy probably did.

This is very disappointing; I had those BBs out of port temporarily, setting a trap at Selaroe, instead of under cover. Once again, Greyjoy outguessed me.

Luck?

In Greyjoy's e-mail, he cursed his luck, and said were it not for the weather, he should have sunk my CVs.

First, I told him I felt a little insulted, as if I should be losing much worse than I am, if not for a run of bad luck on his part.

Second, because of the sync bug, this turn we actually go to see what happened with clear skies over Darwin. In the replay I saw, all his sweeps came in, and got killed. I lost no ships. He lost JUNYO to a sub attack. The only result was another 150 or so lost Jap planes. The essential problem wasn't luck, it was the 700 Allied fighters based at Darwin.

Attacking Darwin was just a bad idea on his part, and it was salvaged by Greyjoy's good luck in getting those BBs

Anyway, I'm getting tired of hearing about bad luck, when this is the 3rd time I've seen a replay due to sync bugs with very different results favoring Japan

[Nemo121]

With 500 fighters at Mandalay, until I can get 500 decent fighters in Burma, I have no chance.

Indeed, yet rather than build up that force you repeatedly build 1/3rd or 1/2 of that force, commit it too early, lose it and then repeat the process. As it is, right now, if you'd been more patient once you could have broken the back of Japanese airpower several months ago. Instead you build up a medium-sized force, lose patience, fritter it away meaninglessly and then rinse and repeat the nightmare.

You think you need 500 to match him. Well then, wait till you get 800 to 1,000 and THEN commit to a massive series of sweeps designed to break the back of his airforce. Don't send in bombers, just sweep and keep sweeping. Your biggest mistake will be losing your patience again and sending the bombers in too soon before you've truly broken the back of his fighters.

Ideally you want to destroy 500 of his fighters in 2 to 3 days at a cost of 500 of your own. At the end you'll have 500 left vs 50 or 60 and changed 2:1 odds to 10:1 - at that point you can send the bombers in.

Basically you need to be more patient.


As to Darwin: Greyjoy has a tendency to blame things on luck and not on his strategic misappreciations. You can choose to find that "a bit whiny" or you could choose to view it as a fatal flaw which you could incorporate into your planning in order to draw him into predictable patterns of behaviour and perception which you turn to your strategic advantage. The latter will achieve a lot more than the former.

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball and GJ are two of my favorite AE players. I read both AARs faithfully, enjoy each, and have a great deal of respect for both players - both their ability and their sportsmanship.

To Brad, I'd just say that your feelings about GJ are colored by a tough few months on the battlefield. GJ wouldn't intentionally whine or suggest "you oughta be losing worse than you are." (I don't think you're losing, do you? I do think GJ is playing a fine game as Japan.) I think you know he's a smart guy who seems to have an impeccable sportsmanship ethos.

[JocMeister]

Ouch on the BBs. You were already very short on BBs if I remember right?

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Ouch on the BBs. You were already very short on BBs if I remember right?

Oh yeah, it's been very bad on my part. I've lost 3 to sub attacks, plus those 4. I've lost a total of 9 USN BBs. I've been a bad admiral! I've also lost 3 R-Class BBs, but those don't really count, since they would have withdrawn by now anyways.

So, yes, I am really looking forward to the 5 BBs I am about to get (Valiant, Warspite, Renown, plus Iowa/NJ)

11-29-43:

Day two was a mixed bag.

We attacked with our CVs, hoping to catch his not moving very fast, but we were a bit short.

The bad is that we launched a very tepid attach on YAMATO and freinds at Lautem; out of 400 strike planes, only 2 units flew; probably weather, once again. No sweepers either. I lost 120 planes.

The good is that KB lost another 360-ish attacking my CVs. He didn't take them off attack, so whatever decent attack pilots were left after the last slaughter are probably dead. He did wound CL PERTH, which is 50/50 to make it, but 300+ planes is a steep price for that, if they are coming off his CVs.

His CV air is probably now all newly trained guys. Mine are in pretty good shape; the strike pilots are mixed, the fighter pilots are almost all aces, after shooting down close to 800 planes in two days.

[artuitus_slith]

The destruction of the IJN's air arm is probably close to worth the loss of the battleships, if you really got most of his elite pilots.

Have to agree with Nemo on the Burma question. The adage of 'take what you think you need to do the job and multiply it by 2 or 3' has held true time and time again, from my days in the army to my current job of fishing. If you THINK it will take 500 planes to do the job, bring 1000 or 1500 instead.

[Schlemiel]

I would encourage building up your pools for Burma as well. You would benefit greatly from a critical mass in the air, since he's limited by av support available to him. Not waiting for critical mass on offense seems to me to be a slightly less obvious version of early carrier loss for the allies. You're tempted to spend what you have as soon as you get parity, but you're delaying the ability to annihilate bases of your choice. He has to defend in force or loss badly to your sweeps, so you need the iron glove to knock out those strongholds and force him into tough decisions there.

Personally, I think the quality of the Japanese KB pilots is mostly irrelevant at this point in the war. In fact, having better pilots might trigger greater risks on the part of the KB. Sure, killing the best pilots is useful, but he'll have decent backups for sure (even presuming he didn't restaff for such a raid, which is fairly SOP). Is there any way to take advantage of the need of the KB to resupply? Any resources available in the area for a snap invasion of another base in the area? Maybe some things prepped for Timor?

[Q-Ball]

11-30-43:

KB is withdrawing westward, toward Soerbaya, probably to spend at least a week there replacing lost strike planes. The total lost for Japan over the last few days is over 800, at least half are JUDY or JILLs. Some are LBA, but a good chunk are CV air, but all those units are going to have to be rebuilt.

I had a shot at YAMATO TF at Lautem, but my CVs launched the exact wrong amount; only 100 planes enough to get killed, but not enough to overwhelm the CAP and get some hits. And no sweeps happened either. So, that was an abort. All the surface ships have also withdrawn, which is wise when KB is disarmed.

So, in the meantime I have free reign.

Kai Island:

In the short-term, I have the shipping and troops ready for Kai Island; we are already loaded, and should land in two days, and I expect no opposition from the air or sea at all, with KB gone. There are 8K troops there, but with 2 divisions coming, we should take it pretty quick.

When that falls, Taberfane and Dobo, and the 30,000 IJA troops on that island, will be cut-off. The airbases are already rubble.

This vector of attack, from Darwin, is very limited, so we are going to open a new one, with a larger move. But for now, it will do as I have support of LBA.

Greyjoy is very committed to this area with troops and planes, so the obvious answer is to go elsewhere. At a minimum, it will spread out his resources.

But in the meantime, it's handy to clear-up to the west part of New Guinea

Long-term Plans:

I feel like an advance across island is not advisable without the cool USN amphib toys, like LCI(R)s and AGCs and Amphib HQs and whatnot. These are coming online, so we are planning a move to a Pacific Island group to be revealed later. Troops are starting to prep, but we are 90 days at least from a real move.

We are also planning for two moves out of the Indian Ocean, closer to the oil. I don't plan to advance from there unless he is real tardy, but I want to threaten the oil and force him to plant massive CAP and troops there. That alone will help.

My advance so far has been too narrow, which is a strategic mistake on my part, but a minor one; after all, I needed LBA at this stage while my CVs built up. I have made a ton of TACTICAL mistakes, but that's different.

Hollandia:

Another attack came off at 1-1 and dropped forts to ZERO. Another attack should do it. Just to be sure, I'll spend a couple days swapping out a tired Kiwi Bde for a rested Marine Regt. That should be plenty.

The troops for Sarmi are ready to go.

I can't afford, of course, to slog 1 base at a time like this in terms of time. So that's good on Greyjoy's part. But how many 30,000 garrisons can he make? The 35,000 men at Vanimo are hopelessly cut off, and only flying boats can get out foot units. Hollandia has 35,000 defenders, who are about to lose and be forced into the jungle. Sarmi has 25,000. There are 25,000 at Rabaul, plus at least 10,000 still in the lower Solomons, despite massive airlifts by him. Samlauki has 20,000 men stuck, and Taberfane/Dobo has 30,000 that can only be flown out.

Part of my strategy has been to bypass some of these garrisons; even lifting stuff by Emily, you can't get out the artillery pieces, which turns troops into Nav Gd. After I took Torokina, Greyjoy kept attacking with the 20,000 men at Shortlands until they evaporated, just to destroy the parent units and rebuild elsewhere. That's fine by me, but part of the strategy I guess.

[Q-Ball]

12-1-43

Boela Night Action:

With KB not around, we can start being alot more aggressive.

First, I sent 3 Fletcher TFs to Boela, where Greyjoy had a TF of DDs parked. We sank 3-4 of them, without significant damage, in a night action. The first couple rounds were draws, but the last TF really pounded the DDs, which is usually how those things go with surface actions. That's why I sent 3 TFs.

In the morning, still 300 fighters at Boela....I planned a bombardment to clear them out for a couple days hence

Turkey Shoot Part Dieu:

I didn't expect Greyjoy to contest my landings at Kai Island; with KB not around, I could use the full force of my CVs to cover a landing, plus the fighters at Molu. I really didn't expect him to try, with that airpower. In fact, when I sent the turn, I said "Next turn....I really hope you contest the landing at Kai Island"

But he did.........to my surprise.

I had alot of CAP up over Kai Island; I have only seen a replay, but it appears he sank an xAP, and put a torpedo hit on AUSTRALIA, but other than that it was a slaughter; something like 500 more IJN/IJA aircraft shot down. That makes nearly 1500 over the last 4 days. I've lost maybe 150 in that span, and 100 of those were on a sloppy attack on YAMATO.

He did score 3 500kg hits apiece on SOUTH DAKOTA and MASSACHUSETTS; they were gearing up for a run at Boela, and for some reason part of the CAP didn't show. Not sure what the damage is, if they need to go to the yard, but they won't sink for sure; no fires at all.

But that's it. I should have plenty at Kai Island to take it quickly.

Hollandia:

Hollandia also fell, with 5000 Japs dying, and the remaining 30,000 or so retreating to Vanimo, which already had 35,000 defenders. That wasn't very helpful for Greyjoy; now Vanimo is massively overstacked, with a bunch of disabled units and probably few supplies. His flying boats will be busy lifting troops out of there, just to releive the mess. I wish I could do something about that; but I have LRCAPed bases over and over, and rarely do I intercept flying boats. Almost never.

Babo:

We also dropped a para unit on an empty Babo; a transport TF with engineers is on the way. It's a risky move, but with KB gone, now is the time to do it. If I can stack it with engineers and supplies, that will be a real thorn in his side.

We are now going to shut down Boela, and that will open a path to the north of Ambon.

[obvert]

Hollandia:

Hollandia also fell, with 5000 Japs dying, and the remaining 30,000 or so retreating to Vanimo, which already had 35,000 defenders. That wasn't very helpful for Greyjoy; now Vanimo is massively overstacked, with a bunch of disabled units and probably few supplies. His flying boats will be busy lifting troops out of there, just to releive the mess. I wish I could do something about that; but I have LRCAPed bases over and over, and rarely do I intercept flying boats. Almost never.

If you're close enough you should do it. My opponent was bemoaning the same thing a while back, but he was getting to a number of them. Just not ALL of them. [;)]

If you're over 5 hexes away forget it. The closer you are after that the better.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
...I have LRCAPed bases over and over, and rarely do I intercept flying boats. ...

If you're over 5 hexes away forget it. The closer you are after that the better.

That's the key ... distance ... 3 hexes and under has high intercepts. Above that it falls off sharply.

[crsutton]

Well, you have made your share of tactical mistakes but your strategic plan is sound and working well. The loss of 4 BBs was not small but his loss of aircraft opened a lot of doors for you. I am enjoying both AARs and consider this a very good game.