The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

10/11/42

Bay of Bengal: Boise makes it to Colombo. Every ship damaged in the Battle of Assam that has been sent to Colombo or Capetown has made it. New Orleans will be ready for action in ten days - she will be the first of the big ships to come back online. In another nod towards John's shift to New Guinea, he must have transferred many of his subs, combat ships and carriers to NG immediately following the Battle of Assam. At that point, there hadn't been the slightest triggering event that I saw. Something must've triggered his alertness in a major way. I suspect it had something to do with a sudden a complete awareness of his vulnerability. Drat!

Burma: John's on the move now. He has an idea for corralling the lead Allied units in the forward hexes. I think the Allies will be fine long term (especially with 18th UK Div. enroute), but short term there is some defensive work to do. Thanks to crsutton for the hexside problem suggestion. I tried it and it seemed to work.

Pacific: Still lots of enemy shipping from Terapo to Horn Island to Milne Bay back to Rabaul. However, the SigInt bells haven't been going off nearly to the level that they did in the Aluetians six weeks back, nor is the base building going gangbusters yet. The American carriers are safely in a "hole" between Tasmania and New Zealand, where they'll hover awhile.

[Canoerebel]

10/12/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet except for medium-size air strikes (this time pretty effective) vs. Ramree.

Burma: The Japanese are shifting troops around. I think John is going to go on the offensive, somewhat. He'll probably prevail in open terrain, but he'll have a hard time pushing the Allies in jungle hexes. This is fine - I want to whittle down more IJA divisions prior to springing my little surprise with 18th UK Div. in a few weeks.

Pacific: SigInt that 4th Fleet is bound for Gasmata. Recon shows Meraukee empty. Naturally, that makes me think, "What might have been!" A fleet sub tangles with a massive oiler convoy seven AOs) near Kaeving. Cursor shows heading as NW as though this convoy had completed it's mission (refueling carriers) and was heading back to the DEI to pick up more. I think the Allies will begin loading amphibious TFs beginning tomorrow. This may be a ten-day process, but that dovetails nicely with my overall plan. John seems to be giving a bit more attention to NoPac, reconning Kodiak and Prince Rupert plus sighting a picket DD well to the west. I like this! In an effort to feed his appetite for concern, CVE Prince William to depart Seattle tonight. Eventually, she'll join up with two BBs coming north from Pearl. The Allies will spring a sizeable invasion armada south of the Aleutians in ten days or so.

[Canoerebel]

10/13/42

Bay of Bengal: Total stand down by enemy forces today.

Burma: A pretty good day for the Allies. Both sides commit large groups of fighters and bombers over a hex containing an Aussie division and Japan's 2nd Tank Div. (roughed up a few weeks ago). Sweeps by Hurricanes, P-38F and P-40K really seem to get the best of the Tojo. Japanese bombers make it through to cause a fair bit of disruption to the Aussies, but waves of B-25s get unhindered access to the enemy tanks. The resulting IJ attack comes off at very low odds.

NoPac: An enemy combat TF of unknown strength is patrolling south of Kodiak. I'm not thinking it's a carrier raid, but I have to be careful what with CVE Prince William just out that way. Tons of Allied shipping around the Gulf of Alaska as I want to give John the impression of growing menace. Let's see what happens.

SoPac: First enemy recon of the game at Tahiti a few days ago, plus more recent at Fiji. I don't think John knows where my carriers are. I'm hoping his torn between SWPac and NoPac.

SWPac: 1st Marine Div. and a few other units begin loading - the first step towards the eventual invasion. This is gonna take some time. Both sides have units in the desert west of Cooktown (NE Oz). I think one of the Allied armored units will take vacant Coen tomorrow. PBYs moved north to Cooktown and report more enemy shipping at Lae, etc. Recon of Buna tomorrow. It does look like an IJA division has been posted to Horn Island. To me, that's a big commitment that says alot.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/42

Bay of Bengal: Another total stand down by the enemy.

Burma: Allied LRCAP gets the best of enemy bombing raids targeting several Allied armies. Japan seems to be stretched pretty thin, judging by the fact that the hottest hexes are "standing on their own" without fresh reinforcements feeding in (to this point). For instance, 59th Div. and 2nd Tank Div. are both fairly depleted yet have been anchoring defenses for quite some time. It will be a few more days before I can gather my troops for the next assaults, which must coincide with the occasional turns where supply is full, but the Allies will resume the attack. It also seems like 4EB have managed to close Mandalay airfield. But John has others - Magwe, Prome, Rangoon that pretty much allow him to do what he needs to do.

Pacific: Still no "flood of SigInt" regarding New Guinea - John has reinforced strongly, but not on an epic scale yet. I still think it's fascinating that he would post a division at Horn Island. SigInt a few days back reported 5th Div. inbound to Horn or PM. That unit was posted at Cocos for a long time. Now SigInt reports that Cocos is garrisoned by 62nd Infantry Brigade. Three amphibious TFs are loading now for the New Guinea invasions. I think I will have them all loaded in about a week. At that point, I will stand down in SWPac to see if I can throw John off the scent. Feint TFs are currently on the move from Prince Rupert, Midway and SW Oz.

[JohnDillworth]

Still no "flood of SigInt" regarding New Guinea - John has reinforced strongly, but not on an epic scale yet. I still think it's fascinating that he would post a division at Horn Island. SigInt a few days back reported 5th Div. inbound to Horn or PM. That unit was posted at Cocos for a long time. Now SigInt reports that Cocos is garrisoned by 62nd Infantry Brigade. Three amphibious TFs are loading now for the New Guinea invasions. I think I will have them all loaded in about a week. At that point, I will stand down in SWPac to see if I can throw John off the scent. Feint TFs are currently on the move from Prince Rupert, Midway and SW Oz.

He fights up North, he counters you in the Central Pacific, he has lots of troops in Burma, he is no loading up in SW PAcific. He can't be everywhere, he has to be thin somewhere. You say he pulled a Division out of Cocos????????

[Canoerebel]

Burma: The war here is very interesting. I'm just learning things many of you learned long ago. Decent Allied fighters perform very well on LRCAP and sweeps. I've always known they could do well fighting over their own bases, so my default was generally to keep them at home and let Japan bleed pilots. That's worked in this game, but now the Allies have such big aifields combined with the 2EB needed to pound some ground targets that I've begun to use my fighters away from home.

At present it also seems like the Japanese army is weak and the navy not present in big numbers (both of these could change, but I'm going on what I see at present).

These factors combine to give me hope that the Allies can punish Japan in Burma. But this makes it all the more important to open up a productive new theater. That will hopefully create a crisis that might prevent John from "ganging up" on Burma and also force him to use aircraft (especially the Zero and Oscar) that I can fight much more effectively.

[Schlemiel]

While I think another theater of operations is optimal, drawing all his ground forces to burma isn't necessarily a bad thing either. There are a fair number of AARs out there with most of the IJA in Burma, and it leaves the perimeter very thin, especially if a certain aggressive individual committed the KB in the wrong way in a panic in 1943. The right series of invasions into lower Burma might end up cutting off huge chunks of the IJA in 1943, especially since RA doesn't have the extra Scenario 2 divisions afaik. I don't imagine it will come to that, but you are in excellent position overall to take advantage of whatever he does. I think either of you would love just a couple more divisions in Burma at the moment to help tip the balance.

In fact, in his place, as a non-IJA player, I'd abandon the oil at Magwe within a few months (which sucks, economically, though it's perhaps early enough to cancel projects to make up that HI gap) and dig in at Rangoon jungle triangle line. The hope there would be to get you to commit much of your land reserves here to try to break through while I strengthened my lines elsewhere. It would require less force commitment to maintain that more narrow line and allow better rotation. Obviously, this is a losing proposition for the IJA in 1942, but from what I gather in other aars, that line would be tough to break until the 1944 upgrades, or with a tremendous concentration of armor and heavy units at the two higher stack hexes. That said, that would be out of character for what John has decided so far in this game.

[Q-Ball]

Horn Island, IMO, is pretty underrated in importance. I personally think it's one of the most important bases on the map early-on. Not sure how others feel, but as an atoll it's a real bear to take, and it plugs the Torres Strait, for the most part.

The only problem from Japan's perspective is it's vulnerability to shore bombardment

[Canoerebel]

10/15/42

Horn Island: Brad, I agree that Horn Island is an important hex. My comments about the place are largely due to the fact that John suddenly diverted a division to the island, just as I was preparing to invade. It was great timing for him, but I also am looking for chances to gang up on Japanese divisions. Horn Island, due to it's position, might give me that opporunity.

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. It looks like Allied flak at Ramree is strong enough to seriously suppress enemy bombing accuracy. A medium-sized raid today didn't do any damage, so that the field is 100% operational and airfield building commenced for the first time in more than a month. To seriously damage the field, John would have to use many more bombers, and currently they are largely devoted to the land campaign.

Burma: Once again, Allied sweeps really messed up Tojo CAP over an exposed enemy infantry unit in the plains. My tally showed 40 Tojos downed in a-2-a compared to less than a dozen Allied fighters (mostly Hurricanes). Allied 2EB then ganged up the exposed division (48th, which was badly treated many weeks ago, so it shouldn't be at full strength). Tomorrow, the Allies will try the same air strategy followed by a deliberate attack by 6th Oz Division and 754 Armored Brigade.

Pacific: The situation "down south" is not clear. John is not heavily reconning (using subs, Glens, etc.) the places it would seem natural for him to sniff - Hobart, Sydney, Melbourne. He's kinda gone quiet. I'm wondering if he's already wondering if the Allies aren't coming for New Guinea? That would be too good to be true. I'm continuing to work on the NoPac and Port Headland feints. Soon, amphibious TFs will leave port to rendezvous in the "dark hole" west of New Zealand. I think D-Day could be in roughly 20 to 25 days.

[GreyJoy]

Dan, i'd be a bit cautious about what you get from the sign-in reports. I usually give to a convoy a particular destination, knowing QBall is gonna see it, but I set waypoints to the real destination, clearing them just when i'm about to reach the waypoint (which is the real destination). Often this is done using extreme opposites of the map.
Something like: 15th Division aboard Maru moving to Horn Island, while in reality I had set a waypoint at Singapore, where I really want it to go.

Or, another possible thing to do is to load a whole division, then pick up just the single Maru that has the parent unit and send it somewhere, while the bulk of the division is moving towards the other side of the world

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Horn Island, IMO, is pretty underrated in importance. I personally think it's one of the most important bases on the map early-on. Not sure how others feel, but as an atoll it's a real bear to take, and it plugs the Torres Strait, for the most part.

The only problem from Japan's perspective is it's vulnerability to shore bombardment

Yes, it's vital for Japan, but once the allies dominate the NW coast of Oz (saying from cooktown to Portland roads) it cannot be held...it's isolated and cannot be supplied without exposition your slow convoys to naval and air raids that you cannot counter... So yes, it's valuable, but you need to have some supporting bases in order to make it worth the investment of 40,000 troops!

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I'm familiar with that strategy. But SigInt is important, especially when combined with other sources. In this case, recon now shows Horn Island with 21k troops. I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd bet my house that there's a division posted there.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, I'm familiar with that strategy. But SigInt is important, especially when combined with other sources. In this case, recon now shows Horn Island with 21k troops. I'm not a betting man, but if I was, I'd bet my house that there's a division posted there.

Yes, 21,000 troops means clearly a division plus some more support troops (probably a naval base force - which is more or less 3500 men - and some minor units - SNLFs etc)

For a garrison of 25,000 troops I normally have 2 BFs, 1 division, a couple of AA units and a Artillery regiment with an HQ (Air, naval or land)

[artuitus_slith]

I feel the opposite, Horn Island is an over-rated base. It is easily by-passed and isolated by the allies, turning it into a training base for allied fighters/bombers. Horn Island is important for the Japanese player, but not so much for the Allies. Since you know he has a division there I'd let him stay there, take PM and Milne Bay+ geraldton (spellilng?) and let him try to force evacuate it. I'm assuming if you are looking for offensive moves you already control Cairns, Cooktown etc? If so Horn isn't worth the effort IMO. Bombard it with cruisers/battleships, bomb it from the air, and LRCAP it to stop flow of supplies in/troops out and be done with it. Heck you could even train up the allied surface fleet a bit by constant bombardments if you wanted, in addition to training bombers and fighters. And if he tries to force supply/evacuate, you will have a battle on very favorable terms to atrit his navy and airforces, which is something you wanted anyways.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet, except SigInt yesterday reported Imperial Guards at Port Blair. That unit was hurt badly at Singapore early in the war. LIke Horn Island, PB is a forward and isolated outpost for precious Japanese divisions. The advantage is that the unit solidifies an important base. The disadvantage is the the unit is either exposed (if the Allies attack) or of little use (if the Allies ignore). I think keeping division-level units a bit further back with the option of inserting them when an invasion is coming might be a better tactic. I'm not coming for PB - at least any time in the next six to nine months - so I'm glad to see IG Div. there rather than in Burma.

Burma: 48th Div. left the hex where the Allies were going to attack today, thus nixing the bombing missions targeting it. 48th joined 59th Div. in the hex the includes a pretty decent Allied army (including 41st USA Div.). The Allies will bomb tomorrow and move forward the two units originally slated to attack. Over on the coastal road, IJA 21st Div. engaged in a very low odds deliberate attack against two UK brigades and American tanks. The Japanese division suffered about 120 disabled squads. And Indian divisiion is one hex away - I'll await its arrival before trying to further whittle this IJA div.

Pacific: The NoPac feint TFs are slowly moving into place. Down south, the amphibious TFs are beginning to leave port for the staging area in the Tasman Sea. The Allies are about to "go dark" for a week to see if John takes the bait that western Oz or NoPac is the actual target. I don't think John has any info about the location of the American carriers.

[BBfanboy]

Another low odds Jap attack in Burma? Is he failing to Recon the hex first, so he doesn't know what is there until he attacks? Never does a bombardment recon? This is the first AAR where I have seen the IJA divisions get so badly trashed so early in the war!
Credit where due - some of it has to be from your preparation of logistics and bringing in the best allied units available. Well done!

[Canoerebel]

10/17/42

Bay of Bengal: No enemy activity. Ramree airfield at 5.35. CA New Orleans will be ready at Colombo in four days.

Burma: Both sides choose to sweep and LRCAP the same hex - the one with 41st USA Div. vs. 59th and 48th IJA Divs. This time the Japanese came out on top, by a score of 64 downed Allied aircraft vs. 32 for Japan. No ground attacks as the Allies continue to await reinforcements moving up. To answer BBFanboy's question about yesterday's low-odds IJA attack, John was fully aware of the raw AVs in the hex (due to repeated Allied bombardments). I'm guessing that he might have thought the Allies were low on supply since I hadn't tried a deliberate attack.

NoPac: A very large "feint TF" is now well west of Vancouver Island. I hope to spring this on John's consciousness south of Adak Island in perhaps seven to nine days.

SoPac: The lead amphibious TF is 13 hexes out of port. No signs of detection for this TF or the USN carriers. The key will be to get them undetected into the "dark hole" west of New Zealand, where they'll "hover" until the green light comes on for the invasion. Meantime, a large "feint TF" is gathering south of Perth and will appear to menace Port Headland at roughly the same time as the NoPac feint. I'm also going to run a DD TF out to Cocos Island. Finally, I'm trying to pull together a feint that I can move from Ceylon towards Port Blair. Despite the flurry of IJ activity around the target hexes - Horn Island, Merauke, Terapo, PM and Milne Bay, the activity level hasn't reached nearly the point that it did prior to scrubbing the Aluetians mission. No recent base buidling activity or SigInt.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. No raids on Ramree as the enemy airforce is busy elsewhere.

Burma: IJA 59 and 46 Divs. shock attack the Allied army spearheaded by 41st USA Div. Allies supply is very low and the attack is preceeded by heavy enemy bombing raids. The attack comes off at 4:1, results in little destruction, and much higher disablement (190 squads) for Japan. I don't think John can attack tomorrow, but 754 Armored arrives (and possibly an American tank unit). Supply is the key now. If my units don't draw, they don't stand a chance. If they do, the odds might flip. An Aussie div. is about three days away.

NoPac: Enemy patrols picked up a picket USN DD far north of Kure Island. The main "feint" armada is far, far to the east.

SWPac: Patrols picked up a dozen or so enemy TFs from Merauke (SigIn reports an engineer unit inbound) to PM to the Bismark Sea and Buna. Lots of enemy activity, but I feel pretty confident I can misdirect John when the time comes (which will be about a week). An Aussie armored unit retakes vacant Normanton on the Gulf of Carpenteria. USN carriers seem to have made it to "black hole" status - steaming in circles without drawing unwanted attention.

[Canoerebel]

10/19/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. New Orleans will be ready in two days. No enemy raids on Ramree (as all IJ aircraft are engaged in a ground bombing campaign).

Burma: Thwack! A reinforced IJ army knocks back the Allied army, which suffers heavy losses. The Japanese army includes 59, 48 and newly arrived 16 divisions. Following a concerted bombing campaign, these units (plus tanks) shock attack the low-supply Allied units, including 41st USA Div., 754 Tanks, and a Brit brigade. The results aren't pretty: The Allies lose 149 combat squads and 286 non-combat (plus a fair number of engineers, guns and vehicles). The Japanese only lose 13 combat squads, but do suffer 267 disabled (to 17 for the Allies), so a new round of attrition begins. The Allies retreated well, joining two Aussie divisions. This newly combined force will now come under heavy attack. I'll see if my airforce can help out, but it's going to be tough. Over in the jungle, a newly arrived Indian division will join with two Brit brigades plus American tanks in attacking 21st IJA Div. in the jungle. I hope the American 2EB will cooperate ahead of the attack. The best news on the day is confrimation that at least seven IJ divisions are committed on the front lines: 12, 16, 21, 33, 48, 59 and 2nd Tanks. I'm pretty sure several more are nearby. That's a huge concentration of force. 18th UK Div. will be a big help when it arrives in a few weeks, but a bigger question: Can the Allies take advantage elsehwere?

Pacific: More Allied ships are on the move in the preliminary positioning of both "feint" and "real" elements. Guestimate of D-Day New Guinea: 21 to 28 days. (The effort to draw John's attention elsewhere - I mean places other than Burma - will really ramp up in about 7 to 10 days.) No sigsn of detection of major Allied forces, including the USN carriers.

[obvert]

The best news on the day is confrimation that at least seven IJ divisions are committed on the front lines: 12, 16, 21, 33, 48, 59 and 2nd Tanks.

How many divisions do you have committed to Burma?