The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

One American, one British, two Australian, two Indian. Of these, only one Indian and both Aussie are in decent shape.

18th UK is on the way, but traveling slowly through the jungle. She won't become involved for at least two or three weeks.

This is all very good. (That's my story, and I'm sticking too it!)

[Canoerebel]

10/20/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. I always lead with this theater, because I think it's the single most critical area on the map. Everything I'm doing depends on Ramree and Akyab - and to a lesser extent Cox's, Chittagong and Colombo. I still fear powerful enemy raids that might show up anywhere at any time, but I no longer have any real fears about a serious enemy campaign to take any of these.

Burma: Judging by John's email comments, he's intent on giving similar treatment to the combined Allied army in the plains. Meanwhile, in the jungle, an Allied attack comes off 1:1 and does modest damage - neither side loses any squads to speak of; the 21st IJA Div. suffers about 65 disablements to about 50 for the Allies. Since 21st Div. suffered 160 disabled in its own attack a few days back, I think it might be vulnerable. The Allies will shock attack tomorrow, preceded by all 2EB targeting this hex. I think John will contest vigorously in the air and I know he's moving troops forward to reinforce (I hope they don't arrive tomorrow). Whether or not the Allies take the hex isn't the issue; the real issue is whether the Allies can rough up another IJA division.

Pacific: All is calm; all is bright.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Whether or not the Allies take the hex isn't the issue; the real issue is whether the Allies can rough up another IJA division.

Oh? For a guy that doesn't do "body counts", you're doing a passable job here, Dan. Your last several posts have identified numbers of Allied:Japanese squads disrupted / destroyed. I thought this sort of body count was beneath you?

Is your goal here attritional ground-based warfare in Burma for the Allies (in 1942)? May I suggest you review:

1. Commonwealth infantry squads (1942) available monthly.
2. Indian infantry squads available monthly.
3. IJA infantry squads available monthly.
4. Supply flow to respective (Japanese versus Allied) combat-engaged units in Burma. Which is more tenable at this time?
5. Ability of combatants to recover disabled elements and re-engage with 'rested' or replaced units in theatre.

I propose that your 2EBs, limited (and 'brittle') commonwealth / British / Indian IDs and supply situation are putting you at a disadvantage here in all five areas at this time. That's fine if your strategic picture is to tie him up at all costs, even at a theater-wide negative exchange. It's worth revisiting if your goal was tactical to secure Burma in 1942 at a positive exchange.

Analogy: In the investment field, there are (short-term) "trades" (sometimes several times a day) that take advantage of the movement of equities. Then there are "investments"-things that have timelines of months to years. The admonishment in the investment community is, "don't let your trades turn into investments". In other words, traders get stuck on the wrong side of a trade and, rather than sell at a loss, sit on equities much longer than they otherwise intended. All the while waiting (and waiting) for the equity to appreciate again (so that they can liquidate their position at a lesser loss). In the meantime, their assets are tied up awaiting the market swing that can vindicate their position.

So-is Burma a 'trade' or an 'investment', Dan? If an investment, then the daily gyrations of the market (your troop disablements / squads destroyed) are irrelevant, provided the underlying equity (theatre presence) doesn't go to zero. If this is a trade for you, what's your timeline and definition for success? Is there anything on the horizon that would reduce your support to feed more Allied troops into the meatgrinder?

[Canoerebel]

My goal from the beginning has been to embroil Japan in a costly and destructive campaign in Burma. I figured the going would be tough - in part because of conditions I knew, in part because of conditions I didn't know and wasn't sure how they would work (supply draw during monsoon, for instance). I don't know how many divisions John has committed to Burma - I know at least seven, and I'd guess perhaps ten. From my perspective, this is utter success.

I am not big into body counts, except as they help illustrate overall rates of attrition and steps toward achieving an ultimate goal. So, I'm not offering these as evidence of "I won (or lost) this battle" but rather "here's how the overall campaign in Burma is progressing (or regressing).

I am very aware of the tacitcal goings on in Burma, but my focus is on strategic. I am 100% happy with that.

[obvert]

The issue I see with being pleased he's committed so many divisions is that if those divisions cripple your fighting ability here for the foreseeable future, and force you to invest more troops, it doesn't look so good anymore. This is a mod where he has troops to burn. The lack of need to invest in several channels of supply waste the IJ usually expends on accelerating airframes and ships simply isn't necessary in this mod. Therefore he probably has more supply than he knows what to do with, virtually infinite armament pools and still gets toys 6-10 months early and in profusion.

It's my view that body counts, plane losses and other simple calculations of daily measurement do help to understand the larger strategic picture, but only if that whole picture is brought into perspective. Crushing Commenwealth units makes it unfeasible to mount a continuing campaign in the area due to the low replacement rates. In short, your losses hurt much more than his with these units. Everything costs something for Japan, but if the exchange is for more time then it's a valid trade.

[Canoerebel]

My understanding of this mod is that it gives Japan lots of relatively small infantry units, but no extra divisions. If that is true, Japan should be stretched thin by now. John's division-level units have taken beatings from the start of the war.

To me, prodding John to commit so many divisions to Burma is a victory no matter what happens on the battlefield. He's going to need those troops and they're a long way from anywhere. In the meantime, my Burma army is going to take its lumps, but long term it won't matter as Japan remains tied down and is attrited by weather, combat, and air attack.

So, no matter what happens in the next four to six weeks, the Allies have already achieved a magnificent victory in Burma. I know many players will disagree, but that's my assessment. [:)]

[obvert]

Well, the Allies will win. That is true. 'When?' is the question. [:)]

[JohnDillworth]

any thoughts to rotating in more American divisions with higher replacement rates and perhaps rotating the Aussies out to rest up for offensives elsewhere? I know they are your best units but this is starting to look like a grind. You should have some Army divisions coming on soon. You can't really win an attrition war on planes or with Commonwealth troops

[Canoerebel]

10/21/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. In the past week, both Akyab and Cox's airfields went to level seven. Ramree is at 5.6.

Burma: The Allied shock attack vs. 21st IJA Div. in the jungle comes off at 1:1 and does little damage to either side. The Allied units want to attack again; I"m going to let them since fatigue and disruption are low. The bombers aren't doing any good in the jungle terrain, however, so I'm going to target 33rd IJA Div., which is in the open. To answer John's question, yes, more American units are on the way, but that's going to be a long-term solution. In the meantime, my guys will have to stay and fight. Yes, they're going to take a beating, but the Allies will get in licks of their own.

Pacific: Tons of IJ activity around New Guinea, with TFs dotting the map from Horn Island to Tagula Island. John is reinforcing strongly. No sign of his carriers or combat ships, though. My two big "feint" armadas in NoPac are in position. They'll loiter briefly until the time is "right" - perhaps one week.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/21/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. In the past week, both Akyab and Cox's airfields went to level seven. Ramree is at 5.6.

Burma: The Allied shock attack vs. 21st IJA Div. in the jungle comes off at 1:1 and does little damage to either side. The Allied units want to attack again; I"m going to let them since fatigue and disruption are low. The bombers aren't doing any good in the jungle terrain, however, so I'm going to target 33rd IJA Div., which is in the open. To answer John's question, yes, more American units are on the way, but that's going to be a long-term solution. In the meantime, my guys will have to stay and fight. Yes, they're going to take a beating, but the Allies will get in licks of their own.

Pacific: Tons of IJ activity around New Guinea, with TFs dotting the map from Horn Island to Tagula Island. John is reinforcing strongly. No sign of his carriers or combat ships, though. My two big "feint" armadas in NoPac are in position. They'll loiter briefly until the time is "right" - perhaps one week.

I don't think that your NoPac "feint" will be credible with the beginning of winter in the Northern Cold Zone on November, 1st.[8D]

[paullus99]

Actually, John might bite just because it is a new "shiny" that will distract his attention....he's fully committed in Burma right now, which is both a positive & negative....his keeps wanting to land some "knock-out" punch, but I don't think he realizes that ground forces are the one thing the allies get in over-abundance, which only getting better as time wears on (lots more firepower), which will roll right over him if he's not extremely careful.

As long as he can concentrate on one axis, he seems to be fine, but having to deal with multiple trouble spots simultaneously doesn't strike me as one of his strong points.

[Canoerebel]

Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)

November 1 as per 12.0 of the Manual.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cold Zone winter doesn't begin until December 1. (I hope John knows that.)

Has this changed?

[Canoerebel]

Well, I'll be dogged. I thought it was December 1. Perhaps that's a lingering misconception that dates to my WitP match vs. John III, when I invaded Hokkaido in early December.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/42

Bay of Bengal: Quiet. New Orleans is back in operation. Devonshire will be ready in five days. CL Mauritius is about four days out of Colombo, the 2nd-to-last of the damaged ships needing yard time. (Ramilles, with 5 SYS and 51 FLT damage, is at Chittagong and will head for the yards as soon as SYS goes to 0).

Burma: John targeted massed Tojo sweeps to cover 21st IJA Div., but I diverted all my aircraft to the open terrain to hit 33rd Div. There were hundreds of Tojos, so I'm fortunate to avoid that buzz-saw, but John will guess right soon. Will he think I"ll move to a new target tomorrow, or will he move the Tojos to 33rd? I'm leaning towards the former, but I haven't made a final decision. My 2EB - including a bunch of B-25s - got free shots at 33rd Div., but didn't seem to inflict as much damage as I had hoped. The Allied shock attack vs. 21 Div. came off at 1:2 and caused light destruction and just moderate disablement to the Japanese. The Allies will deliberate attack tomorrow - fatigue and disruption are higher now, so I don't have much hope, but I want to try before enemy reinforcements arrrive.

NoPac: The two big feint groups are moving to a rendezvous hex SE of Adak. Since John probably knows when winter sets in better than I do (*ack*), he'll naturally wonder if I'm timing something to come in just prior to winter. I'll give him something to ponder.

SWPac: The bulk of my amphibious TFs are in the "Black Hole" now, steaming slowly in circles while awaiting the all-clear to move into New Guinea. No signs of enemy carriers or combat ships. Plenty of activity at the targeted bases, but I doubt it's enough to stand up to the massive forces targeted to each of the key bases. Port Moresby, for instance, gets two divisions: 1st Marine and Americal, plus a host of tanks.

37

[Lomri]

My rule of thumb is not to have LCUs in clear hexes if I don't have air superiority or at least parity over that particular hex. Sustained air bombing will put your units in such bad disruption (and fatigue) that they'll be easier to retreat (and they won't have a defensive hex rating). In my game pushing pushing through Southeast Asia towards Hanoi in 1943 I'm leaving a lot of really beaten up Indian and British Divs behind because I don't have the pools to fill them up. And I haven't had all that many retreated units either, just lots of fighting against units in strong defensive terrain. The retreating is bad because of the excessive destroyed vs disabled. Disabled heal, destroyed suck your pools dry.

I drool over enemy units in clear hexes where I have air supremacy.

Anyhow, glad you have US troops on the way. They will be easier to keep healthy.

One thing that amuses me about your AARs is how perpetually enthusiastic you are. Any set back is seen as a positive because the enemy had to focus enough attention in some spot in order to give you a set back. With this outlook I think you would be a very fun Japanese AAR to read - you should enlist some help on the economy for the next game and give it a shot.

[Canoerebel]

Japan doesn't have control of the air over Burma. At worst, it's a draw. One measure of the air war is that Japan has now lost roughly 2,000 more aircraft than the Allies. I think the last time I mentioned the differential several months ago, the difference was about 1700. (This isn't given as a "body count," but rather as evidence that the air war continues to trend in favor of the Allies.)

As for my optimism, that's because the Allies have done very well in the game to date. Out of all the games of AE and WitP that I've played, I think this is the second best position I've been in as of October 1942.

[Canoerebel]

10/23/42

Burma Theater: I'm hazarding a guess that some casual readers have dropped in of late - perhaps readers that are following John's AAR closely, but only checking in here infrequently. Those readers wouldn't be familiar with the overall Allied plan in Burma. Going back to March, the plan has been to provoke an all-out war in Burma, with the Allies seizing the jungle, Ramree Island, and building big airfields to help in the war. The hope was to draw John's full attention in the air, at sea, and on the ground. Those seeing just the recent ground campaign might think the Japanese were doing well, but to me (and those patient enough to carefully follow this AAR), everything is proceeding exceedingly well. The Allies have held their own (or better) in the air war. John has committed his navy in fits and starts that culminated with the decisive Battle of Assam a month ago (a decisive Allied victory). And, on the ground, the vortex has sucked in at least eight IJA divisions (SigInt confirmed 4th Div. is at Rangoon) and probably several more.

Burma Theater Today: Massed Tojo sweeps of Akyab, where I had only modest CAP, overwhelmed the CAP. Fortunately, John didn't have any strike aircraft sortie. I had stood down most of my CAP (and hence moved most of my ships to Chittagong) in order to provide LRCAP and sweeps to cover my bombers, which again went in against 33rd Div. and 2nd Tank Div., again with little opposition. This time the bombers seemed much more effective. Tomorrow, a beefed up CAP returns to Akyab while the bombers will divert, some hitting IJ units way up near Katha while others will target the 16, 48, 59 divs. stack.

NoPac: The feinting TFs continue to converge SE of Adak. I'm aware that the KB could pounce and detroy a heckuva lot of shipping (mostly xAKs, but some good stuff too includeing a BB and a CVE). I'm willing to chance it because the info alone would make the sacrifice worthwile.

SWPac: All amphibious TFs, combat TFs, and the USN CVs are in position. The green light will come fairly soon - no more than 14 days, perhaps less if KB shows up far away. No sign of KB or enemy combat ships. Reports that airfield at Gove Island, which I am going to target, goes to level one. I'm sure that's an engineer unit with perhaps an SNLF. The Allies have two RCT targeting this base, so that should be fine.

42

[zuluhour]

I would'nt mind seeing ship losses, CL-CV maybe? I consider your air totals very solid, especially with so many front line fighters over Burma. I hope I can learn something from you when it comes to piling up IJN shipping though. It has crossed my mind more than once that I need to improve in this area.