The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

[:D]
Interesting that you note the Brit in command of the US TF but not the American [Ching Lee] commanding the Australian/Brit CA TF. The British and Australians have some very good TF commanders though, so it can all be good!

[Paladin1dcs]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

What about your subs Dan? I haven't hear you talking about them lately...are they achieving any success? Those slow CVEs are a juicy target for your british and ducth boats

"ducth" boats?

Did you mean duck boats? [&:]

PLEASE GOD, NOT PENGUIN BOATS TOO!!!! [X(]

[Canoerebel]

At the risk of inciting comments that I am too optimistic and cheeful, I'm really (honestly, genuinely) satisfied with the performance of the Allied subs to date. They're spread around, of course, but there are large concentrations in the Andaman Sea (frequently targeting enemy shipping moving to and from Rangoon), Solomon Sea (Junyo took two TTs a few weeks back, plus a number of merchants have been sunk recently), and NoPac (no good scores of late, but lots of duds and misses). Subs are also scattered through the Home Islands, Philippines and DEI. None of these have scored major kills lately, but there's been many duds and misses. My overall impression is that the Allied subs are well positiioned and, at the very least, a serious concern for John.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
[:D]
Interesting that you note the Brit in command of the US TF but not the American [Ching Lee] commanding the Australian/Brit CA TF. The British and Australians have some very good TF commanders though, so it can all be good!

Well, I wasn't being xenophobic (or whatever the term would be). Quincy TF is All-American whereas Ching Lee's TF is a big mix. But all Allied commanders in this zone - American, RN, Australian - are top notch.

[Canoerebel]

Several good Forumites have sent private messages gently inquiring into my state of mind about the game and my friendship with John. While I've commented on this before - perhaps back in July '42 in this game would be the most recent - it might be worthwhile addressing this again for newcomers to the AAR (or sporadic readers who will have long since forgotten this).

Two key things to mention first: (1) I'm having an absolute blast with this game! (2) My affection for John and our friendship is a strong as ever or stronger. I love the guy and would be thrilled to meet him and spend time with him. He is a good man and a valued friend.

But that sentiment exists only outside the game. Inside the game, I want to kick John's rear end across the map and then around the world. Some of the things he does irritates me beyond measure. He can be insufferably (to me, at least) cocky, boastful, and goading. I see this in his emails. I see it in the titles to his posts. And, as you can plainly see, it has gotten under my skin. I experienced this in our old WitP match, so the "pump was primed" when we started this match. I didn't assume he'd repeat the same things, but when he did, it didn't take much to get under my skin.

The other irritant has been a simple matter. At the outset of the game, I asked him not to comment on pending turns before I'd had the pleasure of viewing it. John pledged to honor it and has repledged to honor it after many breaches. He thinks this is my problem, which leaves me scratching my head. It was a simple (and I think common) request, but he keeps doing it, sometimes innocently, other times apparently skirting as closely as he can in an effort to get in his comments without triggering a complaint.

My irritation with John (inside the game, not out) and my desire to beat him is no doubt apparent to everyone who reads my AAR. I hope this explanation helps folks understand the currents you may be sensing.

[Canoerebel]

The eve of what may well be the Second Battle of Assam.

The most dangerous IJ attack (and therefore the one I'm preparing for) would be three prong:

1. Combat TFs come in to hit the Akyab airfield and also to do maximum possible damage to the Allied navy. If so, John will be bringing a huge naval force including many of his best BBs (I'm guessing Musashi and/or Yamato to lead).
2. Maximum Tojo sweeps of Akyab to overcome the CAP.
3. Bombing raids by LBA and carrier air to hit Allied ships.

There are a couple of other IJ tactics - John might have posted his ships to draw my attention (fighters and bombers) and will now withdraw them, hoping that leaves his bombers and fighters free to hit my ground troops. But I can only prepare for one strategy, and the first is the one I think is most likely and most dangerous.

The Allies, in turn, could do a variety of things. One would be to evacuate the ships (and perhaps the aircraft) from Akyab, hoping that John's attack would "drill a dry hole." But I'd rather give battle on the odds that the Allies could win and, even if they don't, these are acceptable odds to try to attrit the cream of the Japanese navy. After all, the Allies have the closer air power and major ports, plus mines to provide an added measure of protection.

With that in mind, all Allied combat TFs to gather at Akyab. There will be six. The biggest three will be (1) Ching Lee with two CA; (2) CA Qunicy; and (3) BB Resolution. The other three are smaller - two are CL/DD TFs and one is CA Australia with a few DDs.

Most - but not all - of the Allied fighters in the theater will work Ayab. 180 fighters there, plus more from Chittagong providing LRCAP and sweeps. Total fighters to be committed to this base should be roughly 300. All 4EB, 2EB, 1EB and two torpedo squadrons set to naval attack.

If the Allies lose this battle, they do have a strategic reserve to call on. CA New Orleans at Colombo (and five other CA/CL in the yards there), plus BB Valiant and several Fletcher-class DDs currently inbound from Capetown. Finally, the majestic CVL Hermes TF can respond if needed.

John knows what I have and he's been repulsed badly once, so if he's coming, he's bringing way, way more than I have. So I'd guess a very bloody battle with the Japanese prevailing, but hopefully seeing her main battle line further attrited.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, the turn is sent. What happens now depends on chance, dice and fate. I hope John runs it soon so that I'm not up until 3 a.m. waiting for it to come in.

[Cribtop]

Good luck!

I actually think this plays into your narrative well. Just as John is rubbing his hands together over his big Bengal offensive, he gets a radio message that invasion TFs are spotted in the Aleutians just days before Winter takes hold. That should unsettle him and may increase the reaction.

[JohnDillworth]

Okay, the turn is sent. What happens now depends on chance, dice and fate. I hope John runs it soon so that I'm not up until 3 a.m. waiting for it to come in.

You are a brave man. You knew this could be coming yet you essentially have CA's vs his BB's to defend your base. I offer you 2 Nelson quotes. One well known, the other not so much. Good luck sir!
"No captain can do very wrong if he places his ship alongside that of the enemy."

and

"Buonaparte has often made his boast that our fleet would be worn out by keeping the sea and that his was kept in order and increasing by staying in port; but know he finds, I fancy, if Emperors hear the truth, that his fleet suffers more in a night than ours in one year."

I salute you sir.

[Chickenboy]

And I offer a Socrates quote for the occasion. His final, if memory suits:

"I drank...WHAT?" [;)]

[desicat]

I now see why CR likes "Ching" Lee so much. From Wiki:

"Willis Lee Jr. was a distant relative of Gen. Robert E. Lee and possibly descended from the third Attorney General of the United States, Charles Lee."

Willis Augustus Lee

A very interesting fellow and Olympian!

[Canoerebel]

Or, "Beer Made me Do It!" (wasn't that the title of an early and famous WitP AAR?)

But this isn't a matter of chutpah or bravery or daredeviltry or foolsihness. It's a matter of, "What choice do I have?" I either defend Akyab and vicinity or ceade control Japan for a lengthy period. I've prepared my defenses, my sailors have already won one major clash, and the main purpose of the whole Assam excercise was to draw in the enemy fleet.

The Allies can lose the battle tactically and still come out ahead strategically, when considering the overall campaign. My fleet is fairly rag-tag - very little modern stuff involved - but if I can take out any enemy capital ships the long-term results should be acceptable or favorable.

I forgot to check moonlight, but I think it's fairly low (but we've been flipping turns so fast I might have lost track). Here's hoping Allied mines throw the initial attack off so that things spin out of control for the bag guys.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
things spin out of control for the bag guys.

The guys left holding the bag? [:'(]

[Canoerebel]

Hmmm, most mysterious. I don't know what's happened yet! John sent the turn files at midnight my time last night. Since I don't have the game loaded on my home computer, I can't run it here. Nor did John remember that I had asked him this time to also send the text combat report so that I could see what had happened. I also figured John would post to his own AAR, but nothing. That's gotta mean that he wasn't hitting Akyab; if he had, he would've posted. Anyhow, I'll be in the office in an hour or so and i'll post shortly thereafter.

[JohnDillworth]

"What choice do I have?

WOuldn't it be a hell of a surprise if John stumbled upon a couple of new Allied BB's with Lee in command? I understand they are with the CV's elsewhere and it would take too long to position for a single surprise but it would have been glorious

[obvert]

The silence makes me think either this was not a good night for the IJN or ... this was not a good day for the IJN. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

10/27/42

Today was mainly a non event, but I don't yet know why!

Bay of Bengal: The enemy carrier TFs pulled back towards Port Blair and the combat TFs are seven hexes from Ramree Island. They didn't come in. Massed Tojo sweeps didn't hit Akyab. Instead, there were some sweeps of Ramree Island followed by sizeable raids (doing 20/20 damage vs. airfield and operations). Several Allied 2EB and 4EB squadrons sortied from long distance and reported Mutsu, Nagato and Hyuga present. Not hits scored. Perhaps John's combat TFs were one hex too far to make the run last night but will do so tonight; or perhaps he's still gathering his forces; or perhaps he's just measuring Allied response and preparation. I don't know! I think he's coming (you don't bring three BBs and perhaps more to fiddle around for no good reason; not if your John III). So I have to make a decision again: stay and fight and scamper away like a chastised dog. Don't know yet.

Burma: Mostly quiet. The Allies will deliberate attack 21st Div. again day after tomorrow.

NoPac: Oops, my feinting TFs somehow didn't trigger patrol sightings! I'm running out of "credibility time." They'll move closer tomorrow. Then I'm likely to scamper south. Perhaps using these ships later on to make a feint into a CenPac locale.

SWPac: I've moved the amphibious armada a bit to the NW, on the possibility that John will soon be revealing the whereabouts of a significant part of his fighting ships. If many of them are in Bay of Bengal, that might open up things elsewhere. Also, its possible that he'll coordinate with his Bay of Bengal activity a move somewhere else, which would provide further information. The Allies can hit Horn Island, PM and Terapo in as little as 11 days.

64

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Wouldn't it be a hell of a surprise if John stumbled upon a couple of new Allied BB's with Lee in command? ...

Yeah. I have three fast BBs now, but they of course are far away.

It would be hard to surprise John with anything in Bay of Bengal, though. My ships and bases are within close range of his big bases and patrols. Think of it this way: for the past five months, most of the Royal Navy and a fair number of other Allied ships have been posted in plain sight eight hexes from Rangoon, five from Mandalay, four from Magwe (all of these have big airfields). These ships are exposed to enemy air, combat TF and carriers. And yet, during that five months, Japan hasn't been able to rectify the situation.

[Canoerebel]

I was also wrong about moonlight. It's 85% tonight.

[Canoerebel]

Moonlight is dropping, so John wasn't waiting for optimal conditions for his combat ship lookouts (or, if he was, something crossed him up). I don't know what he's up to. Will he: (1) withdraw; (2) remain in place; (3) hit Ramree; (4) hit Akyab; (5) move in further?

Lots of possibilities, each with lots of permutations, so it's hard to know. But I think I want to give John a different look rather than letting him remain certain of the situation. With that in mind, my preliminary plan:

1. Akyab stands alone, ships to move to Chittagong, only mines to oppose enemy bombardment runs vs. Akyab.
2. Move the huge Akyab airforce to Cox's Bazaar and Chittagong. A fair number of the fighters to serve in LRCAP and sweep roles to try to prevent a massed enemy bombing campaing vs. Akyab. The rest of the fighters to cover the ships at Chittagong.

I'm leaning that way, but the other option under consideration is to stand firm as is.