n01487477(Damian) Vs. Nemo121

[n01487477]

The amount of Allied troops, ships and planes is just staggering... How can any allied player not wipe the floor mid-'43 in beyond me. I need to play the Allied side once, just to feel omnipotent.

Max file size means I'll talk about Australia tomorrow...

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

The amount of Allied troops, ships and planes is just staggering... How can any allied player not wipe the floor mid-'43 in beyond me. I need to play the Allied side once, just to feel omnipotent.

And of course Fionn is a master is using all of it to press you from as many sides as possible to divert you from what he is really going to do.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: n01487477

The amount of Allied troops, ships and planes is just staggering... How can any allied player not wipe the floor mid-'43 in beyond me. I need to play the Allied side once, just to feel omnipotent.

And of course Fionn is a master is using all of it to press you from as many sides as possible to divert you from what he is really going to do.

Thanks Pax ... haven't lost sight of that fact ... I believe some Allied players need to play as the IJ and vice-versa to really understand how poorly they are playing.

In China - he's heading for Shanghai.
In Burma, he's heading for a hop to Singapore.
In Australia, he's looking to go up the chain to the Philippines.
In the Nrth, He'll wait a bit and try an amphib of the Kuriles again after I've retaken them. Actually, I'm sure he's like to do it earlier, but that would mean diverting a lot of my naval forces elsewhere.

Have a good one mate.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: n01487477

The amount of Allied troops, ships and planes is just staggering... How can any allied player not wipe the floor mid-'43 in beyond me. I need to play the Allied side once, just to feel omnipotent.

And of course Fionn is a master is using all of it to press you from as many sides as possible to divert you from what he is really going to do.

Thanks Pax ... haven't lost sight of that fact ... I believe some Allied players need to play as the IJ and vice-versa to really understand how poorly they are playing.

In China - he's heading for Shanghai.
In Burma, he's heading for a hop to Singapore.
In Australia, he's looking to go up the chain to the Philippines.
In the Nrth, He'll wait a bit and try an amphib of the Kuriles again after I've retaken them. Actually, I'm sure he's like to do it earlier, but that would mean diverting a lot of my naval forces elsewhere.

Have a good one mate.

Typical Fionn.

Now, let's add up what else we know. He doesn't have strength to do all of those yet, not even close. What you have to do is to figure out where his real thrust is; which one do you have to bring your reserves to? The rest of them, you should be able to defeat with your local forces. At this time, your LCU's are still stronger than most of the allied ones. Your airforce is a lot stronger if you concentrate it and bring it to bear.

But, to counter all of these, you are going to have to commit all of your forces. Fionn plays no half measures, he throws everything against the wall and sees what sticks. He then reinforces whatever success he has from his forthcoming replacements. Defeats, he allows to whither and forgets about them. As you note, he has 4 thrusts; he only needs one to work to either win or create significant havoc.

On the flip side, he is putting a lot of forces into harms way early. If you crush them, you can put his offensive schemes to rest for 6 months or more.

Good Luck! BANZAI!!!

[obvert]

In China you shouldn't have to do much more than you are doing. His 'offensive' will wither as supply runs out. There is no way he can continue to go forward against resistance with Chinese troops if you bomb and let him pound against troops in dug in positions. Also, I know you have a lot of armor there, but make sure you get all from Manchuria plus maybe some of those heavy 24-30cm guns. They will crush the Chinese in a static position.

I'd have trouble knowing which Chinese units to crush first as there are so many in clear hexes just waiting for your bombing runs. It has to be daunting to watch all of this coming at you there, but just stick with it and there is no way he can continue to push. Hit the weak spots first and make the shattered units there have to take on supply to heal squads and take new ones.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo



And of course Fionn is a master is using all of it to press you from as many sides as possible to divert you from what he is really going to do.

Thanks Pax ... haven't lost sight of that fact ... I believe some Allied players need to play as the IJ and vice-versa to really understand how poorly they are playing.

In China - he's heading for Shanghai.
In Burma, he's heading for a hop to Singapore.
In Australia, he's looking to go up the chain to the Philippines.
In the Nrth, He'll wait a bit and try an amphib of the Kuriles again after I've retaken them. Actually, I'm sure he's like to do it earlier, but that would mean diverting a lot of my naval forces elsewhere.

Have a good one mate.

Typical Fionn.

Now, let's add up what else we know. He doesn't have strength to do all of those yet, not even close. What you have to do is to figure out where his real thrust is; which one do you have to bring your reserves to? The rest of them, you should be able to defeat with your local forces. At this time, your LCU's are still stronger than most of the allied ones. Your airforce is a lot stronger if you concentrate it and bring it to bear.

But, to counter all of these, you are going to have to commit all of your forces. Fionn plays no half measures, he throws everything against the wall and sees what sticks. He then reinforces whatever success he has from his forthcoming replacements. Defeats, he allows to whither and forgets about them. As you note, he has 4 thrusts; he only needs one to work to either win or create significant havoc.

On the flip side, he is putting a lot of forces into harms way early. If you crush them, you can put his offensive schemes to rest for 6 months or more.

Good Luck! BANZAI!!!

PaxMondo is on the right track but he doesn't go far enough as this still hands the initiative to the Allies. I remind readers to go back to my early post on how to approach the problem.

Using the air force to Ground Attack Allied units in China is a misuse of that asset. That Damian has recently forced a withdrawal of Allied units from a clear hex with the assistance of the air force does not invalidate my statement that it is a mistake. All that the bombing represents is a very small tactical Japanese victory achieved at the cost of a significant strategic Japanese defeat. On the other hand, at the cost of a very small tactical defeat, Nemo has achieved a significant Allied strategic victory.

Why is this so?

1. The Allied losses are easily replaced with supply.

2. Nemo does not even have to concern himself with replacing his materiel losses as his strategic plan can be furthered even with depleted chinese units.

3. The Japanese action has been entirely in response to the Allied moves. It is reactive and as such cedes the initiative to the Allies.

4. Japan has no plans to effectively exploit this very minor tactical victory and any attempt to exploit this "victory" by advancing in the general area does not improve the strategic Japanese position but does improve the Allied strategic position.

5. The opportunity cost of using the Japanese aircraft on Ground Attack has been huge and is one of the main factors which underpin the statement made in point 4 above.



I will at this point make this general comment because players consistently fail to pay due regard to it. Every so often someone on the forum will mention "opportunity" cost. I do so quite frequently. Usually players think of "opportunity cost" only in terms of carrying out an unproductive action and then contemplate how the assets could have been employed in a productive action instead. What they consistently fail to see is that "opportunity cost" also applies to using assets in a productive action but the value of achieving success in that action is far inferior to that of a much more promising action. In fact one can achieve only partial success with the better productive action and still come out ahead in "opportunity cost" terms than if one had achieved 100% success in the lesser productive action.



What was and remains the correct use of the Japanese air force in China? The answer is found in my early post. Destroy every Allied supply source. Only when there is no Allied supply source in range should any consideration be given to using the air force on other tasks or in another theatre, assuming that the rest of the Japanese military (ie the army and navy) cannot then bring untouched Allied supply sources into range of the air force. And that is an unwarranted assumption which I provide an invalidation of the assumption further down.

Destroying Allied supply sources in China is of much higher benefit to the overall Imperial war effort for these reasons.

1. Destruction of supply sources impacts negatively on all Allied land and air units operating in China and encompasses all Allied nationalities. Japan derives a long term benefit from doing so.

2. Routing of Chinese units in a single hex only impacts negatively on those few, in relative terms low quality Chinese assets, but leaves untouched all other low and high quality land and air units in the theatre. Japan derives only a very short term benefit from doing so.

3. For the reasons given in the two preceding points, strategic bombing is a large force multiplier at the least cost in terms of Japanese asset and logistical expenditure to Japan itself, which slows down Allied operations in China the most and provides japan with a time credit to utilise it's initiative elsewhere.

4. For as you destroy Allied supply sources in China Nemo is left with the difficult choice of does he direct his meagre supply imports to the immediate feeding of his advance at the pointy end or to rebuild his local industry. Strategic bombing in China promises to deprive the Allies of benefiting from the recapturing Burma as a means to supply the Chinese hordes. I won't discuss now how that can dramatically impact on the Japanese handling of the Burma theatre



Let us approach China from another angle. What can the Allies achieve in China and what benefits can they expect to reap. Damian has indicated that he believes Nemo is heading for Shanghai. Why would Shanghai be the Allied target? Well capturing that city allows for:

1. The complete interdiction of all Japanese raw material convoys traversing the south China Sea back to the Home Islands

2. It makes inoperative the magical raw material overland highway from Singapore to the East China Sea ports

3. It greatly complicates the Japanese defensive posture as various different axes for the next Allied advance open up.

(a) Do the Allies make the short jump to Taiwan (without the need of Allied carriers which can be profitably used on a completely different axis) and thereby directly reduce Japanese secondary industry capacity with the attendant ill effects on HI points production
(b) Do the Allies strike at Korea with the threefold objective of further reducing Japanese industrial production, or moving into Manchukuo to reduce the garrison to below 8000 AV and thereby trigger an early Russian activation, or merely making the rest of the IJA position in northern China untenable due to being cut off from resupply and unable to redeploy to the Home Islands to meet any Allied landings there
(c) Do the Allies move into the Ryukus to more directly threaten the Home Islands and cut off the Korea-Japan SLOC

So there are very great tangible benefits to Nemo if he captures Shanghai but ... but ... but if he lacks the supply to sustain offensive operations at several points simultaneously in China or to manoeuvre you out of strongpoints, he will be stopped stone motherless dead just from lack of supply long before he gets there. It is in fact to your considerable benefit to cede ground at various points in China as it draws him away from his supply depots and you approach closer to your own supply depots.

One of the reasons I posted previously that you should move to capture every Allied port in China was to deny the allies the option of shipping in supply and shortening your own lines. With all Chinese ports under Imperial control, you can then utilise the internal Chinese riverine system to both send supply up river at a very good exchange rate and to land behind any advancing Allied LCUs.


I said before you are handing over the initiative, not losing it. You still have time, but it is fast running out and most of your contemplated actions are of no real benefit, to wield the big stick. Everything Nemo will do is completely dependent on maintaining secure LOCs and getting supply to his spearheads. You can totally disregard them, even at short term cost if, and I repeat again, if you take offensive action to destroy his logistics. He cannot afford to disregard that threat. Your logistics are much more secure simply from possessing interior lines and from the victories achieved previously against Floyd. It therefore comes down to this:

who will blink first

Adopt the right strategy and tactics, and he will objectively have to blink first even though he will try to convince you, by the use of smoke and mirrors, that it is you who has to blink first. You can destroy Allied supply sources (and not just in China) much more easily than he can. But give another 1-2 months of what you are currently doing, and that statement may no longer apply. Currently you hold the bigger stick, that is why you still hold the initiative objectively, provided you act appropriately.

This post is already too long for me to comment on what you can do elsewhere.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

[X(]




P.S. in the Interests of Clarification: Emoticon indicates: Wow, good stuff!

[Skyros]

Okay Alfred where is the second post on other areas?

Alfred is right, if you do not cripple China she will become a thorn in Japan's side. Were there house rules preventing strategic bombing in China in 42? My last campaign my Japanese opponent lost interest in the China campaign which allowed me to resupply and rest up my troops. I was able to start an offensive in 44 that rolled back the Japanese and retook Honk Kong and other ports. Japan can't let the pressure off and must always press at least to keep the allied side busy and guessing as to the real intent.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Skyros

Okay Alfred where is the second post on other areas?

Alfred is right, if you do not cripple China she will become a thorn in Japan's side. Were there house rules preventing strategic bombing in China in 42? My last campaign my Japanese opponent lost interest in the China campaign which allowed me to resupply and rest up my troops. I was able to start an offensive in 44 that rolled back the Japanese and retook Honk Kong and other ports. Japan can't let the pressure off and must always press at least to keep the allied side busy and guessing as to the real intent.

I just looked back and Nemo asked to remove that HR so that all strategic bombing is allowed now.

There are some great points in Alfred's post. I for one think a combination of balanced tactical and strategic bombing is both possible and necessary if allowed. You can't ignore the power of the IJAAF against ground troops in the clear however, especially when faced with a massive and (in my opinion) fragile offensive by the Chinese. Break a few spots and the cards come tumbling down leading to more losses.

It's still then possible to use the air force to bomb supply centers to rubble, and shouldn't take more than a few weeks of turns, but the tactical situation must be addressed at the same time while some of these Cinese troops are vulnerable and before they acquire MORE supply through territorial gain and IJA leftovers. The conquered cities on the coast probably gave them more supply than they could make in a month in all of China.

Destroying Allied supply sources in China is of much higher benefit to the overall Imperial war effort for these reasons.

1. Destruction of supply sources impacts negatively on all Allied land and air units operating in China and encompasses all Allied nationalities. Japan derives a long term benefit from doing so.

Yes, but as stated above this doesn't have to preclude balanced use still targeting troops in specific locations for short duration.

2. Routing of Chinese units in a single hex only impacts negatively on those few, in relative terms low quality Chinese assets, but leaves untouched all other low and high quality land and air units in the theatre. Japan derives only a very short term benefit from doing so.

This is only partially true. If those units take bases that Japan must reconquer it is much more difficult to recover one's own defeated troops rather than hold after bombing the Chinese, causing disruption and disablements, and never having them actually take those bases with their supply, destroying their industry that can be used by the Japanese in future as well, and keeping one's own troops a competent fighting force.

3. For the reasons given in the two preceding points, strategic bombing is a large force multiplier at the least cost in terms of Japanese asset and logistical expenditure to Japan itself, which slows down Allied operations in China the most and provides japan with a time credit to utilise it's initiative elsewhere.

Yes, agreed, but only when the tactical situation allows it. If you need to slow the advance of a Chinese force, and disrupt and disable that force so your own troops can arrive and save a base from falling (not having it's industry halved, not losing the supply there, not having to take it back, not having your troops defeated with many lost squads, disruption, loss of time and supply) you must bomb. It's easy then after you save the necessary areas to continue strategic bombing. If he wants to keep his force in fighting condition he will be in the meantime taking replacements and healing disabled squads, thus still 'destroying' supply.

4. For as you destroy Allied supply sources in China Nemo is left with the difficult choice of does he direct his meagre supply imports to the immediate feeding of his advance at the pointy end or to rebuild his local industry. Strategic bombing in China promises to deprive the Allies of benefiting from the recapturing Burma as a means to supply the Chinese hordes. I won't discuss now how that can dramatically impact on the Japanese handling of the Burma theatre

Agreed. It just has to be measured against the losses of allowing an advancing army to take bases, supply, territory, disabling one's own army and strengthening their own through gains in experience and the ability to potentially use captured supply centers to build forts and make it hard to reconquer those positions.

[Yaab]

Destroy Light Industry in every city which lies in clear terrain hexes. Obvious targets are Shayoang, Siangtang and Henyang near Changsha and Liuchow. Bring everyone, even light bombers with 15 kg bombs will destroy LI there. Fly at 1,000 to 6,000 feet. Dont bomb at 10,000 feet - waste of time. Dont let Nemo fortify these cities - suppress fort construction there with Nate and Oscars bombing airfields.

[zuluhour]

Five days since last post by Japan, I don't want to peek into Nemo's AAR, is the war still on?

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Five days since last post by Japan, I don't want to peek into Nemo's AAR, is the war still on?

I'm putting together a post right now. Unfortunately at this time of year my students have finals and I'm being pulled from pillar to post with essay marking, code appraisal and oral assessment.

Give me 30

[n01487477]

More after I get this turn back to fionn ...

[n01487477]

The Aussie situation...

[n01487477]

Kuriles:



The combat turn and orders for this turn:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/176 ... pae016.zip

[bbbf]

Why so many regiments still? They are far more vulnerable than when formed up into their parent division.

There is ~600 AV in Darwin that is far less resilient than it should be.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: bbbf

Why so many regiments still? They are far more vulnerable than when formed up into their parent division.

There is ~600 AV in Darwin that is far less resilient than it should be.

One of the things I'm transitioning to... In the initial expansion I leave them be as I need flexibility and numbers.
You are right now I need to combine them..

[PaxMondo]

Darwin: I would bail, now, before you lose those troops. You have only one ID there ... it isn't enough. Fionn is going to have overwhelming numbers there soon 4xID + armor at least. Darwin can only be held when you hold Alice Springs. Once you lose Alice Springs, Darwin is on a short timetable. The Aussies have too much that they can concentrate. Whether you leave the troops there or not is not going to buy you any time ... He owns Darwin already, he just hasn't started building it up.

Burma. Ouch. Losing it in '42 hurts. It makes China that much more important. Alfred's points are all still valid, but once he has Rangoon, they are less so. He can "pump" in a lot of supply. Your jeopardy in China is going to ratchet up a few more notches.

Kuriles: Whew! This looks good. If you could take Adak, but I bet he has at least an ID there or more. Without that tripwire, and the ability for him to use Adak as a good staging port, you are going to have to be VERY vigilant on your North axis for the remainder of the game. Build up Paramushiro AF, train some Emily/Mavis pilot for recon and dedicate a squadron to recon Adak. You have to know what's up there all the time now. He could load troops at Anchorage or PH, but they would be pretty beat up by the time they reached the Kuriles. Adak is the embarkation port of choice. I would also have a few Glens dedicated there as well. Of course NavSearch patrols as well, etc. etc.

I'm not sure where all your ID's are ... you had only regiments when you tried to attack in the Aleutians and you have regiments in Darwin ... you don't seem to have as many ID's showing as you should. Something's off here. This is a mod that I'm not familiar with at all, but even in Scen 1 I should be able to see more ID's in combat than are appearing. Either you are hiding them for a sinister blow [;)], or your mod has disabled them.[:(] Time will tell ....

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: n01487477

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Five days since last post by Japan, I don't want to peek into Nemo's AAR, is the war still on?

I'm putting together a post right now. Unfortunately at this time of year my students have finals and I'm being pulled from pillar to post with essay marking, code appraisal and oral assessment.

Give me 30

Feel you there. My exams are today and then comes the marking. Due on Thursday! Not much turnaround time.

Good luck on it.

Do you have the summer free?

[aoffen]

Consider his supply situation at Darwin though. I tried taking it overland in my game as the Allies and became totally bogged down with lack of supply to support all my combat power. eventually had to abandon the whole effort. Not sure it is lost.....not that this info helps your decision in any way