The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.

+1 Dan

The KB will win a CV match in late 42 8-out-of-10 times. Be carefull

I'm not so sure about that. KB has had its air groups decimated twice, and may not have pilots of the same experience now. That, and John's tendency to get too aggressive [high react setting] may suck him into the area where Australian based air can help out.
A further factor is that KB will have so many juicy targets their strikes will be scattered around.

As always, weather over the TFs of both sides may be a big factor. Love the tension in this situation!

[Canoerebel]

John's challenge will be the need to come around the corner and fight between New Guinea and Oz (he can't take the chance of sitting off Buna since the Allies could sail right past Horn Island to hit Merauke without opposition, which I would indeed do). He'll face the task of 4EB on naval attack whinnowing down his CAP. Also, his damaged ships will have to run a long, sub-infested gauntlet back to Rabaul. IE, there's lots of intangibles in favor of the Allies.

P.S. My imagination and fears always tend to master my decision-making at this point, so I'm having to fight against the urge to get cold feet too.

[paullus99]

I betcha John will be itching for a fight based on his recent reverse in the Indian Ocean....if you can get him into a fight on your terms, you'll be in good shape.

Just don't let him pull an 8-hex strike on you, if you can avoid it. That's what kept killing Andy.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
SWPac: The huge concentration of amphibious ships continues up the east coast of Oz, drawing some detection for several TFs. The carriers are trailing by ten hexes to guard against ambush.

This from a couple of days ago. Don't you worry that trailing the amphibious TFs by 10 hexes is too great a distance to guard against ambush? Why not have them in proximate or same hex TFs?

[Canoerebel]

They're much closer now, but I'm worried about John springing his carriers forward from the big blind spot (no patrol coverage) in the middle Coral Sea. The invasion is critical, but my carriers are even more critical. Too, a KB attack against the amphibious ships now could be disastrous for John. LRCAP from Brisbane, Bundaberg, Rockhampton, etc. could seriously attrit his carrier air. I even have Spitfires providing coverage.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I betcha John will be itching for a fight based on his recent reverse in the Indian Ocean....if you can get him into a fight on your terms, you'll be in good shape.

Just don't let him pull an 8-hex strike on you, if you can avoid it. That's what kept killing Andy.

It would not do so much now without the 8 hex Judy D4Y3. The earliest he could have that would be mid-43. Well, actually I don't know in this mod, but I doubt it's out there yet.

[Canoerebel]

I'm casually familiar with the "8-hex gambit," but I confess that I'm not sure why people fear it so much. I know an IJ carrier attack, if coordinated from eight hexes, is deadly, but isn't it very, very hard for an IJ player to arrange for a battle at that distance? It would seem to involve alot of guesswork, right?

[Canoerebel]

11/4/42

SWPac: The New Guinea/Horn Island invasion moves forward and will pass Rockhampton tonight. More than 100 land-based fighters will provide LRCAP from Bundaberg and Rockhampton. Carrier fighters are set to provide LRCAP if needed. Flankers are in front of the amphibious TFs. The enemy is picking up detection of both the main TFs and the picket/flanker ships, so John is probably fully alerted now. Cooktown airfield goes to level three, which should help with CAP and bombing forward. No SigInt of interest in the past three or four days, nor is there much transport activity. Perhaps John is truly running low on troops, given the vast number committed to Burma.

Bay of Bengal: Modest air raids against Ramree. Otherwise quiet.

Burma: No changes. I think 18th UK Div. will be in action in about ten days.

92/35/+2/26

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

My gut is not entirely sanguine about this. John has 9 days to react, we know at least some of the target bases are well defended, and it's still 1942. If KB is anywhere nearby and John assembles a bunch of LBA, things could get bloody, CR. Then again, if KB is too far away, you should pull this off with acceptable losses. 9 days is a long time, though.

+1 Dan

The KB will win a CV match in late 42 8-out-of-10 times. Be carefull

I think the key here is that Dan doesn't have to win the CV match (although that's always nice). As long as he doesn't lose in a one-sided ambush, he can still accomplish his objective. Even if KB wins in a straight-up CV fight, he is likely to lose a lot of his air, and likely one or more carriers (or at least damaged and out of action for a long time). Dan can replace his losses (and repair damage much more easily). More importantly, those strikes will not be going against Dan's transports. The real strategic objective (the 2nd air front) could still be accomplished.

[Cribtop]

I agree, my concern is with the ambush possibility. I think Chickenboy above said that KB's strikes will be dissipated amongst all the Allied TFs. This is true, but the reverse of the medal is the danger that KB and LBA will catch one or two fat TFs without a corresponding Allied counterattack. This isn't the likeliest outcome, but it is a decent possibility.

Dan is smart to stick near the Aussie coast and keep open the westward juke toward Meruake. This minimizes the risk to the invasion TFs. However, IMHO be careful once you choose to go for the original targets. That will be the moment of danger, away from LRCAP and with the Papuan Peninsula's unique geography arguably flipping from helping the Allies to neutral or even helping the Japanese.

Still, I'm expressing concern about operational risks, not arguing for an abort at this point. Plus, from a reader perspective, this will be awesome!

[Canoerebel]

11/5/42

SWPac: Things are beginning to pop. First, the vast array of Allied TFs moves north of Rockhampton without opposition, though many of the TFs report detection. LRCAP from land-based fighters will be thinner until drawing within range of Townsville in two days. No sign of KB or combat ships. Enemy paratroops take vacant Lord Howe Island (which had a some PBYs and an AVP). This would have been a catastrophe two or three days back, but Lord Howe is now far, far to the rear of my ships - Koumac is considerably closer - so this doesn't increase John's "snoping" abilities. Back-to-back email comments from John: "Pretty exciting Sir!" and "Watching and Looking..." He knows I'm coming. His patrols also get a whiff of several of the "feint" TFs off Esperance, but I doubt he'll fall for that at this late date.

Bay of Bengal: Modest enemy air raids vs. Ramree are largely ineffective due to CAP.

Burma: Quiet as the two sides continue to shift and prepare for the next round of action. BB Resolution to depart Chittagong tonight. She has llight/moderate engine damage incurred in the Second Battle of Assam.

92/29/+1/24

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/5/42

92/29/+1/24

Still don't get Dan's math [&:][&:]

[obvert]

97/25/0/21

[pws1225]

Seems obvert thinks he has cracked the code. We'll have to wait and see.

[Canoerebel]

Nah. He'll be relatively close on three of the numbers, but significantly wrong on one of them.

[Canoerebel]

11/6/42

SWPac Today: The popping sounds you hear are the conversion of mighty forces in the Coral Sea. The Allied amphibious armada, including carriers and combat TFs, was not molested other than patrols. I don't think John has gotten any detection yet on the flattops or major combattants. Enemy raiding TFs pick off a bunch of my picket ships - two xAKL and DD Sands downed. A strong line of enemy subs just outside the Great Barrier Reef picks off an AM and jousts with an xAK. The KB - or a major subdivision - is three hexes SW (true) of Koumac. Patrols reoprt a TF comprised of 6 CV, 2 CVL (36 F, 33 B, 11 A). IJA paratroops take vacant Norfolk Island. An enemy TF of some is nearing Cairns/Townsville. Over on the west coast, enemy patrols pick up the feint amphibious armada that's off Geraldton.

SWPac Tomorrow: I'm breathing a sigh of relief as tomorrow my ships will draw close to Townsville, where there will be a multitude of LRCAP. Also loaded up nearby airfields with bombers. I don't think John will spring the KB yet, given the LRCAP threat. D-Day is roughly five or six days off, depending on what opposition I face in coming days. I really, really, really like having the KB down around New Caledonia rather than right in my face.

Bay of Bengal: Very quiet. Ineffective raids against Ramree airfield do slight damage.

Burma: Still quiet. I'm counting the days until I can throw 18th UK Div. into the fray.

91/24/+2/21

[JohnDillworth]

BTW, I have stationed Ninja's on your property lest you try and go canoeing in the near future. No, you can't see them, they are Ninja's. Sorry it has come to this but I am not waiting a week to see the outcome

[Canoerebel]

The die is cast. The Allies are moving forward. A big fight will take place. The first beach will be hit in 5 or 6 days.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The die is cast. The Allies are moving forward. A big fight will take place. The first beach will be hit in 5 or 6 days.

Hurrah!

[Chickenboy]

Finally! [;)]