The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Each day, as the long, long train of ships moves further west, I wonder:
1. When will they stumble across a sub or ship?
2. When will SigInt reveal a series of "radio activity" reports that gives me away
3. When will John realize that Oz is alot of smoke and mirrors
4. When will I begin to see another round of Just In Time reinforcements, this time in Sumatra?

[paullus99]

Holey-Crap.....okay, count me impressed.

[Canoerebel]

And the days continue to pass with no signs of enemy detection....but what about Cocos Island? Surely bad things will happen as the ships pass south (true) of that important island?

[Canoerebel]

More days pass...the Second Battle of Assam occurs, which I think is almost surely going to rivet John's attention to that theater for awhile...

....and I wonder: Should I detach my carriers to go after stricken BB Mutsu? I decide against it in hopes that strategic surprise can be achieved.

[Canoerebel]

Some forumites begin speculating about the meaning of the code (which I had come up with so that I could later recall exactly where the Sumatra TFs are in comparison to the false narrative built around Oz). Nemo, in particular, makes a telling guess as to the code's meaning.

Then, early, early one morning this week, GreyJoy posts something too close to the truth! I PM'd him immediately and asked him to edit out his post.

Given these two developments, Nemo and GJ are both privy very recently to what's happening. The only other person who knew was Chickenboy. He posted some alarming comments back around Oct. 20, '42, alertly critiquing the flaws with my New Guinea plans. I was afraid his comments would expose the ruse eventually, so I contacted him and asked him to refrain.

[Canoerebel]

The mission continues...

...its clear that John doesn't have any picket ships operating out of Cocos.

...but how close will the Allies get to Sumatra before patrols or wandering ships find them?

[JohnDillworth]

O posted this in John AAR last week and warned him not to have this guy in command.

[Canoerebel]

As the Allied TFs approach Sumatra, there's not the slightest indication of enemy detection. Is it complete surprise or, instead, has John carefully craft this to draw me in to my immediate doom?

Meanwhile, all kinds of things are popping off Oz - enemy paratroops landing, subs, carriers (near New Caledonia! A beautiful sight to my eyes!)

[Canoerebel]

The long train of TFs...and the very obvious "Cocos Curve."

[Canoerebel]

During the 30 days it took to conceive and implement this plan, Sumatra was preternaturally quiet. Only one "base building" report of note - Padang airfield increased by one level.

The only SigInt report of note occurred on 11/1/42:

[Cribtop]

You sneaky little so and so. I considered but discounted this possibility because you had never done this sort of "in AAR" maskirovka before. I thought you'd taken leave of your senses being ok with proceeding with the NG Op when KB popped up off New Caledonia. My, my, this should be fun to watch. Great deception.

You will finally get to execute your long planned offensive from the Q Ball game!

[Canoerebel]

I apologize for misleading you gents, though it isn't unprecedented. I did this same routine before invading Hokkaido in my WitP match vs. John. Traditionally, I stick to the facts in excruciating detail. I did so in this game with the Aleutians plan and then with the New Guinea plan. Here's why I finally departed:

1. Intentional OpSec violations are so rare as to be disregarded (though I"m aware of two instances, one of which involved Nemo).
2. Accidental OpSec violations are possible, which every AAR recorder knows. I usually adopt a "I don't care" attitude and move on.
3. Here, John "sniffed out" my Aleutians plan in amazing detail...and then did the very same thing with New Guinea (reinforcing Gove Island? Good grief!) His Just in Time Reinforcements were vexxing. He had figured me out! He knew me too well!
4. Most importantly, the two Just In Times had cost me roughly two months and 2/3rd of the map. As best I could tell, there was only one more chance and place to achieve a big surprise - Sumatra. If John sniffed this one out and orchestrated Just in Time Reinforcements Part III, I was out of time and real estate. I'd just have to go into 1943 and count on winning by shear firepower as reinforcements arrived.
5. But I love surprises! Love them! So, I created this maskirovka.
6. I was pretty sure the Oz feint would run its course long before my Sumatra TFs would get anywhere close, but that didn't happen. The Oz feint took on a life of its own and really seemed to capture John's full attention.
7. I don't think there's been a Just in Time Reinforcements, Part III.

Time for me to log off for a few hours to go bike riding with my son. More late tonight.
1.

[JohnDillworth]

The KB is out of position. Even at a dead run through the Torres Straits it might take him 7 days to get to you. His AO's are not that fast so he will have to refuel along the way so maybe another day or two. Yo should be unmolested by the KB long enough to get everything ashore. He has LBA & interior lines but it will take a few days to move a large force there. You have a bit of time but he will get a counter-attack in. I guess the trick is going to be getting a base, an air filed, fighter protection and sooner or later some decent AA ashore. This really puts Burma in jeopardy. Glad you didn't go for the Mutsu. If you pull this off she is collateral damage.

[Canoerebel]

Cribbit, I knew you were concerned. Thanks!

I should clarify that Nemo was the victim of an intentional OpSec violation - still the most egregious example of unsportsmanlike conduct I've witnessed by the AE community.

There are many facits of this plan to discuss later, but in part: Isolating the vast Japanese army (ten divisions???) in Burma.
Isolating whatever ships are currently cut off around Rangoon.
I can transfer AMerican fighters from Ramree to Sabang.
So many IJA divisons are committed far away that I don't see how John can organize an effective ground campaign in the near term.
The Allies are bringing alot - kitchen sink type stuff.
I have good and big bases - Diego and Columbo - in relatively close proximity. Unlike a Java campaign, therefore, I'm not "hung out to dry.

[Cribtop]

I agree. This should work - you have John dead to rights.

Question - I assume you are bringing the same overkill horde of troops you detailed for the NG Op? If so, no way does he kick you off Sumatra. This will be a war winner.

[obvert]

Well done sir. I had my doubts first about your sanity going in with full knowledge KB was after you and then wondered if I should have some doubts about the validity of the op, but you've hidden it masterfully. Well played.

Still a bit of work to do as it's possible the veil comes off with those ships sunk. His LBA can get there in force, but you've seen the kB far away and his troops are split as well it seems. I look forward to the continuation.

[&o]

[JohnDillworth]

His LBA can get there in force, but the kB is far away and his troops are split as well it seems. I look forward to the continuation.

In the short term John can move tons of LBA air in. There are plenty of decent airfields in range. I don' think he can get many boots on the ground and the IJN will have to sit this one out for a bit. They will be there, but not for a week or two. If he was moving more stuff to Burma he might be able to reroute, but it probably is not a ton of stuff. CR has to grab some bases and get them on-line

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

By "kudos to him" I mean this: We players do our dead-level best to formulate a good plan; it takes weeks and months to gather and prep the assets; we create feints (Aluetians, NoPac, Cocos Island, whatever); we sift through SigInt and patrol reports for evidence that our opponent is or isn't prepared; we monitor activity elsewhere on the map to glean what information we can; then the plan is implemented, we continue to monitor and watch and sift and glean; everything thing available continues to tell us that things look good....then, if under those circumstances, our opponent has pulled a maskirvoka so detailed and so effective that not a single warning bell was sounded...well, in those circumstances we just have to tip our caps to a nimble and crafty opponent.

And a hat tip to you, Sir.

[JohnDillworth]

Nemo, that's just spectacular! But I can't do it. I vowed long ago not to use emails at all. Just a personal preference. But I can see hwo the course of action you set forth would be very effective against John. However, I'll just sit on my hands and quietly see what's coming and what's going and what's happening and what isn't.

Well this makes sense now

[Canoerebel]

11/9/42

Much to say, but don't have much time until later tonight. So a quick summary:

Operation Des Wallace: John moves patrol aircraft to Cocos and Sabang and - voila! - the board lights up with detection (he has to be kicking himself right now - just one patrol squadron properly and prudently placed and he'd have had days of notice). Many of my TFs are detected. He might still have some question as to scope and exact targets, but I think he largely knows. The British will lead the invasion, as 18th UK Div. goes in tomorrow morning, preceeded by five slow USN BBs bombarding (with aircraft serving as spotters, night and day). The carriers will take position just off the tip of Sumatra. Some combat ships will enter the straights to patrol and perhaps soak off a few enemy air raids. The new Nicobars patrol squadrons will recon Sabang and Georgetown. Lots of enemy shipping appears cut off, but nothnig particularly sexy. I reduce range on my fighters and bombers to four, hoping not to waste sorties on riff-raff (but taking a chance if enemy carriers pop up). Some Avengers and Dauntlesses will hit Sabang airfield and troops. Cursor shows two units at Sabang - according to long-ago SigInt, one should be a garrison unit. I assume the other is a base force. The American troops should arrive in to days, as they are seven hexes out. Onward, stout soldiers and sailor and airmen!

Elsewhere: Nothing major, so I'll report later.

One more time just for fun: 91/7/0/3