The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Time now to sit down and read through the thread. Thanks for posting, guys. I'll pick up lots of ideas, test them, adopt some, adapt some, and respectfully dismiss those that might not work for this or that reason. In the meantime, here's what's going on:

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
What can you do to balance the need for a firm lodgement with the need for a quick breakthrough and springboard exploitation? [8D]

Exactly!

I like Nemo's opinion that the time to move is within 5 days of the fall of Sabang. I agree. I think Sabang falls on D+1 or D+2. Then Allied engineers need a few days to get the airfield back up and running so that Sabang can provide local CAP. During this period, I possibly would use the carriers to cover the Sibolga landing. Then move on Malaya with that five day period. Phuket is an obvious target. I haven't yet looked at the peninsula, but will do so shortly.

But I agree with Chickenboy. I don't need to overdo it to the point of defeating the primary and most important objective. So Sabang, Sibolga, and Medan are, to me, the foundation for success. If I attend to those expeditiously (plus easy pickings like some of the islands), then I will feel that moving more boldy is proper. I will, however, move more quickly if things are going very smoothly - IE, a move on Malaya could start earlier if its clear that Sibolga and Medan are going well.

[pws1225]

How's the prep/disruption for the invasion force given the change of targets a month ago/time at sea?

[Canoerebel]

John has had two days notice. I figure it may take him ten days to get his carriers here (and by day five I should have lots of patrols up and picket DDs in place to prevent catastrophic ambush). I'd like to use about four more days to complete the Sabang and Sibolga parts of this operation, then, if things are still "right" move on Malaya (or Padang).

In the meantime, troops are also coming for the offshore Sumatra islands and the Nicobars. By the time the ten days is up, I hope the Allies will have a minimum of 11 bases, with four of those being major (Sabang, Sibolga, Medan and probably Langsa).

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: pws1225
How's the prep/disruption for the invasion force given the change of targets a month ago/time at sea?

With the possible exception of tomorrow, disruption should be totally irrelevant. Here's why:

18th UK Div. landed 130 AV on D-Day, with 50% disruption, 40% fatigue, 55% prep. The enemy has 157 AV present, but after a nuclear BB bombardment (see below), the combat report (further below) ended up with adjusted enemy AV of 37 (0 for Imperial Guards).

Naval bombardment of Sabang at 44,70
Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
E13A1 Jake: 16 damaged
E13A1 Jake: 4 destroyed on ground
Ki-48-IIa Lily: 8 damaged
Ki-48-IIa Lily: 2 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
xAK Hitati Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Teimei Maru, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
BB California
BB Pennsylvania
BB West Virginia
BB Maryland

Japanese ground losses:
723 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 30 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 21 (12 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Airbase hits 31
Airbase supply hits 10
Runway hits 90
Port hits 7
Port fuel hits 1
Port supply hits 4

BB California firing at 10th Garrison Unit
BB Pennsylvania firing at Sabang
BB West Virginia firing at Sabang
BB Maryland firing at Sabang

Ground combat at Sabang (44,70)
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 4233 troops, 32 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 157
Defending force 2035 troops, 49 guns, 34 vehicles, Assault Value = 130
Assaulting units:
10th Garrison Unit
Imperial Guards Div /1

Defending units:
18th British Div /6
178th USAAF Base Force /2

I doubt things will get better for the Japanese. Another bombardment (plus carrier air attacks, if they fly this time) should really mess up the Japanese. 18th UK will shock attack, bolstered by the troops and supplies that come ashore tomorrow. I feel sure that 18th UK should have at least 250 AV ashore. Forts may be an issue, but there's a decent chance Sabang falls.

Once Sabang falls, most other troops will land, rest a few days, and then some may reembark to invade Malaya or other targets. Other will roll across land to attack Langsa, Medan etc. By then, disruption shouldn't be an issue, and even if there is some, the small size of enemy garrisons may obviate that.

[pws1225]

Yea, I see what you mean about nuclear. Those old BBs might be slow, but they do carry a mighty big punch. Maybe John should have stuck around another day back at PH.

[BBfanboy]

I suspect there will not be any forts. I think Garrison Units do not have any engineers, and IG division engineers will not be flown in until most of the infantry is there.
All those damaged aircraft will be toast too - no air support.[:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
I think Garrison Units do not have any engineers

True in RA mod too? Dunno. You're right about Sc 1 and 2 OOBs.

[Cpt Sherwood]

Not wanting to comment on any specifics, but reading both sides of the AAR is very interesting.

BTW, he can railroad the damaged aircraft to Medan.

[artuitus_slith]

So when is the real invasion (Tokyo) going to come? D+20?

Well played, fun read. Should be an interesting month (if things go badly) or 3 months (if they go well). Enjoying this game.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cpt Sherwood

Not wanting to comment on any specifics, but reading both sides of the AAR is very interesting.

BTW, he can railroad the damaged aircraft to Medan.

You can't strat move troops out by rail when enemy are in the hex, so I thought it would be the same for moving aircraft by rail? We should find out soon. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Sometime this morning John should send the next turn.

During a long hike yesterday evening, the complete bipolor nature of what has taken place in this game occurred to me. I don't have answers, but the situations arise to the level of phenomena.

John sniffs out Allied plans for the Aluetians in the late summer of '42, instituting a startling Just in Time Reinforcement operation that focuses on the precise islands targeted. This included obvious and major targets (like 7th Div. going to Attu), but also a bevy of the smaller targets (Agattu, etc.). We have a history in NoPac, so I understand why John would attend to the Aleutians, though the sudden, abrupt onslaught of his reinforcements is disconcerting. I conclude: He knows me too well!

The Allies shift targets to New Guinea, Horn Island, etc. The journey is a long one, with trains of ships leaving Pearl Harbor and West Coast, stopping at Tahiti, rounding New Zealand and reporting to Hobart and SE Oz. John institutes Just in Time Reinforcements, Part II just as the lead Allied TFs are arriving in Australia. There are small things that happened that weakened OpSec (an AK getting torped as she neared Auckland, for instance). Some of the targets are obvious (Port Moresby). But there are a bevy of smaller targets (Gove Island, etc) that get major reinforcements. And Horn Island gets a division or infantry. John predicts exactly (exactly!) where I'm going. I conclude: He knows me too well!

Even as John is implementing his huge moves to New Guinea, the Allies shift targets to western Sumatra. This time, no Just in Time Reinforcements. Zero. Nada. Essentially nothing at Sabang, and what is there had been there for months. He's apparently caught 100% by surprise. He doesn't foresee the obvious targets nor the obscure ones.

How does he go from 100% foreknowledge to (apparently) 0%?

How did I fail so miserably twice only to succeed (apparently) on the third? What did I do that tipped him off? What was it that made him so confident twice? It's a great mystery that I'll ask him about one day.

[JohnDillworth]

John has had two days notice. I figure it may take him ten days to get his carriers here (and by day five I should have lots of patrols up and picket DDs in place to prevent catastrophic ambush). I'd like to use about four more days to complete the Sabang and Sibolga parts of this operation, then, if things are still "right" move on Malaya (or Padang).

In the meantime, troops are also coming for the offshore Sumatra islands and the Nicobars. By the time the ten days is up, I hope the Allies will have a minimum of 11 bases, with four of those being major (Sabang, Sibolga, Medan and probably Langsa).

I think tens days is the max time it takes him to show up. If he wants to run at full speed he can get there sooner. That will damage most engines so he would only do this if it might make an immediate difference, which is pretty clear it won't. I presume his AO's are mostly in the SW Pacific and they are not nearly so quick. He may have some others around , but probably not too many, he was looking for sustained ops somewhere else. That probably means he can come at you once, but not stick around for too long. It will take a few weeks to get AO's in place for sustained ops. He has to come for you with the KB. He has to cut the incursion off and LBA probably won't do it, but he can get plenty of that in over a few days

[paullus99]

CR - I've been wanting to articulate this for a while, but is eerie how John seems to be able to guess "exactly" where his opponents are going to attack, in instances where those attacks are pre-posted in the forums.....not saying anything, but his "intelligence" seems to be almost "MAGIC" like in its overall accuracy.

And the fact that this attack, not telegraphed in the forums, catching him completely off-guard and out of position.

I'm not cast aspersions - but the circumstantial evidence is pretty heavy in favor of some kind of intelligence leak, somewhere.

[Canoerebel]

Agreed. I defintely feel the need to have long-range PBYs operating out of two or three or four bases within the next three days, while also maintaining picket ships and flankers. Allied carriers aren't nearly strong enough to go up against the full slate of enemy carriers plus landbased air. But the equation begins to change once Sabang is operating fully. It's currently a level three field and I can bring in two P-25K squadrons plus either P-40E or Hurricanes (and a dozen P-39G) that will make things a bit more secure.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99
I'm not cast aspersions...

I know you're not. I'm not either (and I'm not trying to subtly fertilize the field of speculation). I think intel and OpSec and coincidence and knowledge and "knowing the opponent" are legit topics that merit thought, especially given the totally bipolar and amazing sequence of events that has taken place over the past three months of game time.

I do NOT think (and have never thought) there has been an intentional OpSec leak. Exhibit A: John was completely surprised by the Gilberts and Ramree operations in June.

I have no idea if there have been tiny unintentional leaks. It's always possible and something every keeper of an AAR is aware of. It certainly seems possible in this instance. Enough that I'm mulling over not tipping off "surprise" moves in the future. Misleading my readers isn't something I want to continue doing.

[catwhoorg]

I think the Aleutians is clearly based on past knowledge.

That just leaves one operation countered.

That may well be due to intelligence leak of units prepping or a snifter on a search.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that could explain everything.

[yubari]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg
That may well be due to intelligence leak of units prepping or a snifter on a search.

I don't think that the Japanese ever get any information on allied units preparations for targets or troop movements, at least I have never seen any in thousands of turns, apart from messages of radio communications at certain ports.


It is kind of difficult to comment here without giving away any information. But from reading John's AAR as well, I don't think that there has been any foul play going on. I like the idea of keeping future moves a surprise, makes it more exciting for all of us viewers!

[catwhoorg]

Good to know, I haven't yet played Japan.


In my current AI game Sabang is proving to be a pain in the behind. Bettys based there (and from the Malay peninsula) are making the support of a couple of landings (Sinabang and Great Nicobar) costly in ships Both are my bases, and finally the CAP at GN is taking a toll.

A ran a SCTF into the hex for bombardment, and found a minefield...
[:(]

On the plus side, thanks in part of this AAR, my Burma campaign exceeded expectations, this is one area where the allies can be more offensive minded in 1942.