The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I'm going to try hard to cut that rail line. But it's going to take days, in all probability. John knows that's coming, so he's working even now to prevent it. So, ultimately, I think it doesn't happen. But even if it doesn't, it's worth it for two reasons:

1. It keeps John focused much closer to Singers, giving me a better chance to take places like Sibolga, Langsa and Medan (the latter is going to be tough too, I think).

2. I think John doesn't have anything decent close to Singapore. He's seems to be counting on Burma for the bulk of his near-term reinforcments. That operation, in turn, requires Victoria Point (Georgetown is too close and there's nothing north of VP that's on a rail line). No doubt John's bringing stuff fast from the New Guinea theater (and what he can take from Java, Timor, etc.), but judging by the activity on the map and SigInt (12st Garrison unit aboard marus bound for VP), he's really scrambling to pull in troops.

[witpqs]

1. Sabang is replenishing all ammunition, including main armaments for the fast USN battleships. The port is only level one, but there is 153 naval support (and growing) plus three AE and an AKE. This is critical - the Allied fleet does not have to retire to Colombo to replenish (as long as Sabang is operational).

IIRC AE/AKE ships do not cooperate with the base directly (port size, nav support), instead they work according to their own cargo capacity. So, one or more of your AE/AKE ships has large enough capacity to reload the BBs.

[Canoerebel]

Ah, I see. Thanks for that nugget of info. I'll have to closely monitor those AE/AKE and judiciously replenish.

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel, is it possible that the TF at Langsa reloaded the marines and withdrew, perhaps because of the "air threat"? This happens if the amphib TF is not set to "Direct/Absolute" routing orders.
Otherwise, there should be messages like " xx Marine unit disperses" on the combat report.
If it is another bug in the mod like the landing of amphib troops in Strat mode, it's time to call for Michael M's help.

[Galahad78]

Perhaps you already discussed it (I do not remember it, sorry) but, do you have any plans to strike in another far away place, now that John's attention is fully in Sumatra-Malaysia area?

PS: of course, in view of your recent success with this fine maskirovka, I understand if you are not eager to share those plans with us [:D]

[Canoerebel]

BBFanboy, I don't think that happened (amphib TFs reloading the troops at Langsa). I'm wondering if my BB bombardments didn't hit my troops, wiping out supply and rendering the men "wiped out by attrition."

Galahad. No comment. [:)] Well, small comment. Sealift capacity and political points limit what I can do right now, but I've know what I want to do when and where since this operation got underway back in early October.

[JohnDillworth]

Is it conceivable that the KB chase you all over the map until you decide to fight? Ceylon and Diego are OK ports but you can not simply disband and let the LBA defend you. WOuld you retreat to a wormhole and lose all honor?

[Canoerebel]

John, no way the Allies retreat off the map. Certainly, though, parry and thrust enter into the equation. IE, I'll maneuver for maximum possible advantage in crafting a fight. But this sitaution is exactly like the First and Second Battles of Assam (though much bigger): In both cases, the Allies took a strong position and elected to (had to) stay and fight because....how can they retire when the battle, the theater, the war are on the line?

But Colombo and Ceylon are much stouter than you might credit. Seriously, does anybody think John is going to orchestrate a naval strike that far out? Colombo is a level nine airfield with 300 air support. It currently has 125 fighters and nearly the entire airforce from Assam can be there in at most two days and no more than three. You think John is going to take on combine LBA and carrier air and then have to retire damaged ships all the way to Singapore via the Malacca Straits or the Sunda Straits? There is no freaking way. (Or, if there is, my opponent is so addled and stressed that he's lost all control.)

Anybody think I'm misjudging things?

[MateDow]

Those sound like logical conclusions to me.

[Canoerebel]

Here are a few comments about the game.

First, as you can imagine, this has been just a blast. To have the tension and uncertainty of a vast operation that took forever to come to fruition come to fruiton in such a mighty way is simply amazingly fun. So, I tip my cap to the designer of this game and to my opponent, who fights hard and who is aggressive and who flips turns as often as possible and who sometimes irritates me but who I really, really like and who I know well enough to sometimes be able to put together amazingly intricate and fun plans that don't get sniffed out for Just In Time Reinforcements, Part III.

I am aware that the fun won't last and that big hurts are coming. That won't be fun. But dang, what a game!

Now, a true story about OpSec that may put everything into perspective. I once played a PBEM match as Allies against a crafty opponent who orchestrated a huge 1944 invasion of southern India. I had nothing there...except, one slow R-Class BB had just finished upgrading at Bombay and was enroute to Colombo. It just so happened that on the very turn the Japanese amphbious armada arrived at Trivandrum to begin unloading, said BB was in that hex. My opponent howled and screamed OpSec violation! I was beside myself that my honor had been questioned! It took us some turns and some harsh words to get that straighted out. Eventually, my opponent realized that nobody sends an unescorted BB into harm's way. Point being - a small coincidence was sufficient to unleash doubts about my integrity and OpSec.

My opponent in that game? John III.

Same thing in this game, but on a vastly larger scale. I won't go back through the details, but talk about massive consecutive coincidences and predictions! Anyhow, you can see how such an environment might breed questions. You can also imagine how somebody totally innocent - as John III is, of that I've never had a doubt - would be highly agitated, mortified, stricken and fuming about allegations of dishonor. So, gents, if any of you harbor any doubts, I hope you will agree that the circumstances warrant total dismissal of OpSec concerns. If anyone has publicly stated (as in John III's AAr) reservations about OPSec, I hope you can see it in your hearts to publicly withdraw them and repair any breach.

Now, I will say that it is possible for any player (including me) to pick up very subtle almost subliminal things through AAR comments. In the hands of a smart and wary AAR keeper, those things may coalesce in remarkably insightful ways that yield strong hunches. I think that kind of thing will happen in every game wtih an AAR. For instance, in this game, you guys have been remarkably, commendably, assiduously careful not to reveal OpSec. But I seemed to pick up sublte undercurrents that suggested my maskirovka might be working (though, at the same time, I was harboring doubts that some Japanese fans might even be performing counter-good feelings.). Let emphasize - these were the smallest of things - an attitude, a concern, and ephemera like that. OpSec violation? Of course not. Nobody even had the slightest idea that I might be able to sniff the slightest thing. But I'm convinced that any AAR is going to generate small electricl and magnetic undercurrents that almost become a part of the game. So, did John benefit from something like that? Probably. I just think that's universal, 100% unintentional, and 100% impossible to prevent.

[JohnDillworth]

I think he has to go big or go home. The KB can't really loiter in the Indian Ocean forever. He is not likely to sneak up on you. Unless he can institute a blockade you have no particular reason to engage in the decisive battle. Dividing the KB doesn't work. It's either dig in for massive land and air battle of attrition or change the conversation. I don't know John and he hasn't discussed any detailed plans but from what others have written I think he wants to change the conversation.

[Canoerebel]

Just checked the SigInt file and found these:

[JohnDillworth]

Was Fuso up in Burma recently? she is one of the slow BB's. Perhaps she is leaving the area? I guess she is as fast as the mini KB so you are probably right. I just had a nasty Battle of Samar thought. I'd at least give thought to the KB chasing you off, or hopefully engaging you in the Indian Ocean. While the carriers are far away sending a big surface combat TF to clean up all those troublesome allied ships in the Straits of Malacca. Much too risky for this early in the war I suppose

[Canoerebel]

Good point. IIRC, Fuso took a torp in the First Battle of Assam, several months back. She's had time to finish repairs. She might be heading into the IO through the Sunda Straits (between Java and Sumatra).

I think John will swing the KB wide to avoid Allied patrols from Sumatran islands and to possible pick off transports coming into Sabang - he's had plenty of patrol contact from Emilies operating out of Cocos Island for about five days. There are only two important TFs left - one carrying a division (and Marine 'chutes) that is just 29 hexes out of Sabang (probably getting close enough to be out of immediate danger). The second is the small air transport TF carrying three USN CV squadrons. That TF is 30 hexes out of Diego Garcia and close to map's edge. If necessary, that TF can divert to Capetown, though there might still be time to make it into Diego.

John may swing the KB wide in hopes of cutting off the retreat path of the Allied carriers back to Colombo. This merits thought, because probably the best fighting ground for the Allies is a spot as distant from the Sunda Straits as possible and as close to Colombo as possible. Midway between Sabang and Colombo would be nice.

A challenge for John is that he has fast carriers and slow carriers. How does he handle that? Does he spring the fast ones forward towards the sea lanes in the Sabang/Colombo/Diego triangle, with the slower ones coming behind (or possibly up the Malacca Straits, though I swear I don't think John does that).

[paullus99]

I also wonder if John has forgotten that you have torpedo-equipped squadrons available as well.....he's probably hoping that his CAP would be enough to stop anything you throw at him, but in his rush, who knows what he might forget.

[Canoerebel]

Strat Map 11 14 42

Even while the Allies work the land and sea campaigns vs. targets in Sumatra and Malaya, the preparation (and anxiety) over the looming sea battle mounts.

[Canoerebel]

The only other possible use I can see for John's carriers would be a "let's run the gauntlet) to position them between Port Blair and Victoria Point to cover his LOC. That may be his fallback plan if the Allied carriers retire, but the only main plan I can see is his closing for carrier battle the sooner the better (immediately, to his way of thinking).

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
If anyone has publicly stated (as in John III's AAr) reservations about OPSec, I hope you can see it in your hearts to publicly withdraw them and repair any breach.

Haven't seen this, Dan. You may be making a bit too much of this non-problem. John doesn't seem to think it was a problem. You don't seem to think it was much of a problem. Who cares what the peanut gallery thinks? Let's move on-it's a non-issue now.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In the hands of a smart and wary AAR keeper

Yes, but what about in your hands?



ETA: [:'(]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
(though, at the same time, I was harboring doubts that some Japanese fans might even be performing counter-good feelings.).

Well, yer right. DIE, ALLIED DOG!