Islands of Destiny: RA 5.0 Japanese Side

[JohnDillworth]

John, not familiar with this mod. I know in some mods the Empire can out-produce the Allies at least 5-1 in aircraft. Based on your economy is this the case here? I ask because an aircraft attrition battle might be to your advantage. Right now your strengths are the KB and probably aircraft production. Not so sure you can win a battle of attrition if it is based on land units, supply or surface combat. Thinking medium to long term here

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: desicat

This battle looks like it may take a while. If you can spare the units I would land on the Great Nicobar Island and get an airbase going. That will cause him to react to you.

Not a game changer but something he has to consider - and a window into the open Ocean.

Not piling on you, but all this talk about "must react", poke here, build there, fiddle, fiddle.

This Allied operation is nothing less than an existential threat to Japan. It will win the war for the Allies if not refused. The strategic table CR has already built in interlocking air fields is too large for cursory bombing. This situation will not be resolved with Japan's security blanket--unlimited airplanes. Or the KB, the other wubbie. The water around Sumatra is the worst on the map for carrier ops. Two straits--Sunda and Malacca--are easily controlled by a defender and one or the other must be run to get to where Japan needs to be. Running the KB through a shallow-water minefield in either is probably not a good idea.

So IMO, let the KB go. Let sweeps go. Let AF bombing go. Sumatra needs two things to survive for Japan--troops, and negative supply flows for the Allies. Troops are easy--bring them in through secure lines to the south. Secure Palembang absolutely first. Use the roads up the western side to deploy.

Allied supply can come from three directions. India, CT, or Perth. Each of those problems is a naval problem. Terminal interception with Malaysia LBA alone will let too much through, and supply is the sine qua non for the Allies here. There is no good supply generator in bases CR has taken so far. It has to ship in. Naval actions in the IO must focus on supply denial, not carrier hunting or anything "sexy." Sink merchants and Japan has a chance. To that end any and all actions needed to get the Japanese fleet into the IO must be undertaken at any cost. Get into honor battles and Japan has lost its oil base and the war. It's that simple.

[John 3rd]

Damn...you guys GO!

You are already running where I intend to go.

The entire Paratroop question was where they WERE intended to go. Using them in Sumatra makes excellent sense. They have already shifted to Strategic Mode and are RRing down to Rangoon.

INTERDICTION:
1. SUMATRA: Air Divisions/Flotillas (is all goes well this turn) are now at Port Blair, Victoria Point, Oosthaven, and Cocos. I have the 9th Air Fleet at Rangoon and would love to figure a way to get it to Tand??? or Georgetown. These units will provide enough Oomph to be decisively engaged in Sumatra with Allied LBA and shipping. Where possible we shall advance these units when able.
2. AUST--SUM: In two days I shall have two STF of 2CA, 1 CL, and 3 DD each hunting TF. Additionally, I will add the Mini-KB with a split of 3 CVE, a CL, and 5 DD in two TF to SINK Ships. This should slam the door on that angle.
3. With Emily Flying from Cocos, Pt. Blair, and Benkoelen I SHOULD be able to follow the CVs. Based on that I will deploy KB when it arrives on scene.

CONCUR with everyone regarding the chance to CRUSH Allied units. It is an opportunity not to be denied.

GROUND:
1. Reinforce Palembang and Tand???
2. Destroy anything ashore in Malaya. This an opportunity to use the THAI units it looks like. They are already deploying to hold essential bases.
3. Those islands near Malaya (Pluket and Langkari) are USELESS to Dan. He won't be able to keep them supplied and building them up with take forever. Will sink the ships running to them and leave them alone initially.
4. Just landed a full Brigade (4th Mixed) at Benkoelen. With Sz-4 Forts I will keep this base. Will move up the Outer Islands to create some pressure and make him move to me.
5. Good idea on those islands SW of Port Blair. Will look to see what might be done to start work there.

IDs:
10th will work its way to Tand???.
2nd will move to Benkoelen then move northwards. If I still control anything up that side will start from there.
14th will head for Tand??? as well and move north towards Medan and then Langsha.
Am airlifting the 4th and 56th ID to conflict points but will then seek to find a way to get them in the action fully.

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Not piling on you, but all this talk about "must react", poke here, build there, fiddle, fiddle.

Moose, I don't think you are getting my point. The small amount of effort to get Nicobar up and running would (nor should it) not take away from the main effort to eject CR from Sumatra, but the (potential) airbases strategic location to see and strike behind Sabang is something CR will not ignore. It lays closer to his supply line and closes some of the the blind spots between Sumatra and Ceylon. Anything that narrows the Allied maneuver area for the KB is a good thing. I agree that the decision will be made on the ground here but the KB will play a part in the decision.

This battle is going to take a long time and anything that increases the LBA envelope will prove to be beneficial. If CR wins at Sumatra then Nicobar is a side show, if John wins then it will prove to be a huge asset while the contest hangs in the balance.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Home for a few minutes. Worked 6am-4pm and am headed back for another couple of hours. Turn to be done at that point.

On the subject of the Paras, I have three full strength Raiding Units (AV 40 or so) that can be used. Options:
1. Drop them in Eastern India as was the original pan to cause chaos and make HIM REACT.

Good heavens, no! Why would you want to squander your valuable paras in this manner? They can be put to much better use as a rapid deployment group to quickly stem the bleeding from yet another Allied incursion. Alternatively, they can assist with an attack on CR's forces-supplementing the ground LCU's attack. You don't have to apologize for the "para bonus" here, John. Just understand how to use it-just as CR would do, given the opportunity.

2. Use them to take back the western bases and island bases that he is grabbing with just Base Forces and Engineer units.

Well, that's a better idea than the first. If you could time this for when his ships exfiltrate, that would be the greatest opportunity. Poorly defended Allied bases that lose their lifeline (and are chock-a-bloc full of delicious supply) whilest running from KB would mark an excellent timeframe for exploitation.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
2. Destroy anything ashore in Malaya. This an opportunity to use the THAI units it looks like. They are already deploying to hold essential bases.

Thai infantry are amongst the poorest on the map. Don't put too much credence on them-they'll buckle at the first real challenge. They are also very poor in engineers-it will take them too long to dig by themselves. Get 'em some help.

3. Those islands near Malaya (Pluket and Langkari) are USELESS to Dan. He won't be able to keep them supplied and building them up with take forever. Will sink the ships running to them and leave them alone initially.

Do you really think that having to size 8 AF islands immediately off of the Malay peninsula is useless? Allied engineers will build these up within a couple months. Then DBs from there will range across the Malay peninsula and threaten Bangkok and parts south.

I disagree fundamentally with the disregard you are showing these islands. Something that close to the Malay peninsula (barge assault anyone?) cannot be taken lightly.

make him move to me.

And what if he doesn't? Eventually, you're going to have to (after holding what's left of Sumatra) dig him out like a bloated tick. You won't do that by being sedentary and waiting for him to move to you. Short term-yes, build your perimeter's strength. Intermediate term-you're going to have to go and get him.

John, what is your engineer and AV support status on Sumatra, Malaya and surrounds? What is the range of your air HQs in theatre?

[Chickenboy]

John,

I don't always agree with Bullwinkle on everything here on the boards, but he's got this one pegged. Existential threat? Check! Interdict supply and support shipping? Check! Big hammer? Kill kill kill? Check! I concur wholeheartedly.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I'm a weirdo. THis is an opportunity to take at least one Marine ID and one Brit ID out of the game for a long time. Marine replacement rates means about a year, Brit replacements maybe 2 years or more.

I would look at what I would trade to 'kill' these units, and that is a long list. PM, NG, solomons ... pfft. No question, YES. KB? No. Marshalls? yes. Kuriles? No. Burma? Yes. Malay/Thai? No. +2000 LBA ac? Yes. You need to finish this list, but I think you see where I'm going. I can scare up +6 ID's at least ... and a lot of support forces.

Now I know what units I can pull and bring here, and I know that I can bring far more than he can in Nov 42. Bring it all. No half measures here. The BIG hammer.

Your goals:
1. Annihilate the LCU's he has committed. No survivors. I want those units off the board for a long time.
2. See if he will commit his CV's into LBA range to attempt to extract any of these units. If he does, I want to greet him with +1000LBA attack BEFORE the KB joins in.

As someone else noted above, I'd have every single xAP and xAK hauling every unit I can find to this fight from all the locations above I said "YES" to. He's offering up enough troops for me to give up those other areas if I have to. Allied replacements are free, but they are limited. I can curtail his 'feistiness' in '43 right now as he won't have enough LCU's until '44. And maybe he will get desparate in the face of losses to make a mistake and commit his CV's. Not likely, but battles are won and lost on little mistakes ...

Well the marine unit is not big deal. The Allies have marine regiments that they can disband to pick up a pool of squads. The British ID is another thing. Basically, if you destroy a British unit then it is out of the war. Just no squads to rebuild it, not to mention the pitiful device replacement rate which has to be shared with other Commonwealth nations.

[1275psi]

wobbly did this to myself in the original witp

japan won


but it took everything it could muster......................

[John 3rd]

My gal having issues with her son wanted to work part of this morning so I got a chance to do the 11-15 turn. More bad but not terrible.

BAD:
Lost Phuket, Langkawi, and that western island Batoe-???.

GOOD:
Held off attacks at 44,71 (hex just off Sabang w/1-2 result), Sibolga (Allied Shock 1-2 Forts stay at 4), and Alor Star (1-2 Fort stay 1---two THAI units arrive here tomorrow. Isn't much but it SOMETHING!).

Other:
He moved a trio of CV into the seas between Sabang, Phuket, and Victoria Point. These ships sank a pair of DDs protecting troops landing at Victoria Point. They appear to be loaded with fighters and only one attack squadron each. Will try to lure him into a CAP Trap at Victoria Point where 75 Tojo await.

Victoria Point now at AV 250+ with Forts-3. It is safe from immediate attack. Trying to get an Air Division completely unloaded there from two AMC.

Sank several AKs and damaged nearly a dozen AP-AK with air attacks. Hit BB South Dakota with a pair of bombs. She'll need probably two gallons of paint to fix that! [:@]

STF moving into place to make a run at Sibolga's TF. Attacks revealed no CAP and just AK--AP present. They should hit day after tomorrow.

KB near Amboina.

Move another 250 planes into AF in Java and southern Sumatra.

Something FUN. I ordered a pair of AMC to the waters around Tahiti and they SCORED sinking a pair of TK and a PC. Not much but NICE!

[John 3rd]

This is what he has at Sibolga. Begin flying in elements of the 4th to try and hold it longer. Once those Inf Reg regain their strength he will be able to take the base but I need time to get troops into Tand???.

[John 3rd]

Order the 2nd, 14th, 4th, and 48th to begin prepping for the first two islands on the west coast moving up from Enggano as well as Phuket and Langkari. Figure this might be a surprise and it would serve to clear the flanks for the main objectives in Sumatra.

[John 3rd]

Here is the current position of things in northern Sumatra:

[John 3rd]

Southern Sumatra

Order air strikes to fly from Benkoelen and Oosthaven to hit anything from Sibolga SOUTH.

Reinforcements appear to have made Benkoelen 'safe' for the moment. Am going to bring some help along with supplies up to Padang. He is focused up in NE Sumatra and near Victoria Point so we'll try to take advantage of that.

The Air Division at Oosthaven will move north by 4 AP to Benkoelen. BRING THOSE Torps CLOSER Baby!

Just off the screenshot is BB Fuso, a CL, and 7 DD. They will take shot at the shipping off Sibolga. A detachment of 4 DDs will hit the island just west of Sibolga.

He sends 3 DDs into Singapore again and they are suprised when they encounter BIG BOYS Nagato and Hyuga! Sink one DD and, perhaps, another. I think Singapore is now clear for reinforcements to come in! Order AMC and two pairs of CM to mine Pt Hedderland and Bengkalis. This will keep the incursions down...

[Bullwinkle58]

Singapore is not mined? [:-]

[Bullwinkle58]

Padang is the threat to Pbang. Three marching routes on decent roads. Offshore air support from a base he already holds (Siberoet.) Easy 90-degree supply inbound route from deep water hard to air search all the way to the off-map edge.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: desicat

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Not piling on you, but all this talk about "must react", poke here, build there, fiddle, fiddle.

Moose, I don't think you are getting my point. The small amount of effort to get Nicobar up and running would (nor should it) not take away from the main effort to eject CR from Sumatra, but the (potential) airbases strategic location to see and strike behind Sabang is something CR will not ignore. It lays closer to his supply line and closes some of the the blind spots between Sumatra and Ceylon. Anything that narrows the Allied maneuver area for the KB is a good thing. I agree that the decision will be made on the ground here but the KB will play a part in the decision.

This battle is going to take a long time and anything that increases the LBA envelope will prove to be beneficial. If CR wins at Sumatra then Nicobar is a side show, if John wins then it will prove to be a huge asset while the contest hangs in the balance.

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I think this is a worthy discussion because it bears on overall attitude by any Japanese player who finds himself with a bolt-from-the-blue existential threat attack like this.

"The small amount of effort . . . would not take away from the main effort . . ."

This statement is factually incorrect. I understand you imply "not much", but the point is it WOULD take away from the main effort. It's the sort of frittering away force allocation which Japan simply can't afford. The decision horizon for Japan in Sumatra/Malaysia today is no more than 60 days, and most of it is 14 or so. Setting up a small, island AF to the north of the threat is chrome. It has to be taken, secured, engineers allocated, and most significantly has to have 20k+ supply to be functional as an AF. Is all of that better used on Sumatra? Of course.

And if built does it have a lot of functionality? Not really. I does straddle the routes from Madras, Colombo, and Calcutta if the Allies straight-shot supply TFs. But why would they do that? They have literally infinite fuel at Abadan, and it can't be touched. They have hundreds, soon thousands, of xAKs which can reach the theater off-map and safe. And they can supply western Sumatra directly from CT by many, many routes that come nowhere near Nicobar.

Japan here must cordon Sumatra from re-supply. But air won't do it. The IJN has to patrol deep into the IO in many zones, carefully building surface TFs by type, speed, and endurance, layering defense and detection zones all the way to the map edge. Only in the terminal zone is LBA a factor. The heavy lifting has to be done by DDs and CLs building a steel wall against XAKs which the Allies can afford to use as one-shot supply haulers. (The Liberty ships were built and budgeted to do exactly that in the ETO. One load to GB or the USSR and they had done their design duty. Anything more was gravy.)

On land, Japan has to focus on the oil bases. Any supply and engineers have to support that primary focus. Building island AFs is a nice-to-do right now.

[viberpol]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Second shot looking down from Langsha to Singapore. Look at all the TF landing on the OUTER Islands. Those are total undeveloped. I understand taking them but don't see the value when everything else is, more or less, ripe for the picking...

Speaking from my perspective and a PBEM which I lost against Crsutton landing exactly the same place at Sabang (but in '44)
I think that those small islands (which now appear not important) are more important than the main land bases NW of Sumatra.
I think CR thinks he might lose the land bases sooner or later. That's why he took the islands.

The Allies, after a month or so, if fortified on an WR island will be very very hard to get rid off without the landing bonus of the first five months for Japan.
My opinion is you should asap take the islands back.

On the other hand, Sumatra is open for a prolonged land campaign which is not necessarily a bad option. For God's sake, its November '42. Japan has some good LCUs! I'd rather have a major land campaign on Sumatra in '42 (certain that the oil fields are secure, because are not to be bombed) than have it on a wide front in Burma where you can achieve nothing, and where the Allies are unlimited in supplies. This game is all about supplies! You're closer to your main supply centers. He has to transport supplies a long dangerous way. You've got a HR that prohibits bombing the oil fields for some time, right? You still have naval superiority. Great Akizuki-class destroyers that enter the war early and with radars. Damn, it's a naval mod isn't it? [:)]

Today (and I mean in a short term) Sibolga, even Padang are not that important IMHO.
You can easily neutralise them by bombing day and/or night (naval bombardments) from your major bases not so far away. But when supported by a chain of island based bases.. well this is a different case...
You've got a little bit more time to bring you farther placed divisions there to reinforce Sumatra's mainland.
Fortify at the crucial (picking good defensive terrain) hexes (say NE of Sibolga with river crossing etc.) and let him come closer burning supplies (yes, moving troops burn supplies; they burn whole piles of supplies!). Appear weak...
[;)]
Then counter-attack with all forces available.

[John 3rd]

Thanks Viperpol.

It 'appears' that Langsha and Medan are safe for the moment. Key word is moment.

Want to hold Sibolga as long as possible. Those two Naval Guard will not last long. The Sz-4 Forts are key. If I can make sure there is not real threat to Alor Star then I shall mass my IJA bombers and hit the LCU at Sibolga. The Fuso TF will attempt to wreak some shipping and cause issues that way. If he brings ANY of those eight BBs identified so far then life will be dicey for the BB TF.

Ordered 4 CM and 3 AM to mine to twin bases above Singapore. Once those MF are in place (about 80 mines each--not much but something) I shall commence serious mining of Singers.

As mentioned above, I agree with the threat of the islands on the west side of Sumatra as well as Phuket and Langkari. My ID will take them back FIRST and then roll into Sumatra. This is the TENTATIVE plan.

Worked a nice short 10 hour day. Going out to eat cheap Chinese food and will tackle turn at that point. Mentioned last page is a short family trip up in the mountains Fri--Sat--Sun. I'll have the laptop but am not allowed to have AE on it. Will Post during those days but no turns.

[John 3rd]

With the exception of a single small development we shall call November 17, 1942 a GOOD turn and the beginning of Japan getting its feet underneath it. Things are still scary but troops are getting closer to where they desperately need to be AND airpower/SS strikes are beginning to really be felt with the enemy. Cocos is going to be a PAIN! [:'(]