The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Chickenboy]

By the way-the purpose of this post today is to ask about the MOST important aspect of this AAR. How are you doing with page count vs. GreyJoy?

[Schlemiel]

Canoe needs to paddle up more posts. That is the status update.

[Cpt Sherwood]

Well, we just have to spam his thread.

[pws1225]

A Southern Gentleman can never hope to compete with a Roughish Italian Lad in popular appeal. But a close second would be respectable.

[Schlemiel]

Pictures of random hairy women would lure in the Italian horde though, apparently.

[BBfanboy]

The Bengal Triangle - graveyard of ships and aircraft. Seems apropos!

[Cribtop]

Two comments:

1) This is going to be great fun to watch.

2) IMHO you have an 85% or better chance of winning the upcoming CV battle in a strategic sense. Winning defined to me as a draw or better with the SLoC still open or openish.

[Canoerebel]

I don't have a good record in early-war carrier battles. I fact, I don't think I"ve ever come out on top of one (except the rare instances where the Allies had far more carriers). So a face-to-face, full-lineup vs. full-lineup clash will worry me to no end. I think I"d rate the chances of Allied success at 25%. I think there's a 75% chance that the carrers react away from land-based LRCAP and do other frightful things that make me sick to my stomach. I'm not sure what's going to happen when and where, but I think it will be soon and I think all the while I'll be fighting against my natural 1942 inclination to "Run! Run for the hills!"

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Two comments:

1) This is going to be great fun to watch.

2) IMHO you have an 85% or better chance of winning the upcoming CV battle in a strategic sense. Winning defined to me as a draw or better with the SLoC still open or openish.

In this case a draw may not be a win for the Allies. A rare position, but one reason this is a huge risk even with complete surprise. Japan has CV superiority in numbers until the Essex's come along, and arguably quality until the Hellcats arrive. Japan can outproduce the Allies in LBA with good comparative quality until the P-47 comes along to close down the party. We're even still pre-Corsair, so I don't think the P-38 will be able to gain superiority with it's few replacements against the numerous Tojos.

If John renders the Allies unable to supply the troops and LBA on Sumatra/Malaya he gains the upper hand. It is a long road until more CVs come along. Really it would be to Japan's benefit if there happened to be an incredibly bloody battle quite soon sinking the majority of each side's fleet. Sure, 43 would be ugly, but the Allies might have by that time been pushed off Sumatra with great losses.

That's a very small likelihood, but it is a scenario I'd be particularly careful about as the Allies. Start hitting oil soon as well, as this will give him something else to have to defend. A little night bombing? Japan has no answer to this until much later as I've found out.

[Canoerebel]

House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.

Obvert, think about the rationale behind your proposal. As I read it, you'd in essence be arguing: (1) the Allies can't risk a carrier fight because if they lose the KB will control the sea lanes; so (2) the Allies should let the KB alone, in which case the KB will control the sea lanes.

Don't both of those options equate to no supply going to Sumatra?

No matter what, though, John is in a pickle IMO (Hey! I also realize he can put a world or hurting on me, but I won't address that at the moment). To blockade Sumatra he has to use his full fleet indefinitely, leaving the rest of the map vacant. Even then, he has to to deal with the threat posed by the Allied fleet and the variety of ways to get supply to Sumatra (which, at the moment, is flush with supply). Sabang isn't far from Ceylon.

Remember when the Allies invaded the Gilberts on June 4? It took six weeks for John to evict the invaders even though his carriers were unopposed and the Allied garrisons were small and out of supply. How much more difficult (and time consuming) will the task be in this case?

[MateDow]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.

It might be worthwhile to hit the port and damage the docks, or even tankers if you are lucky. That will slow the flow of oil out. Not exactly as effective as hitting the oil itself, or the manpower, but will still force him to dedicate some resources to defense of the oil.

[Canoerebel]

Given the chance, I'll do that. But it will be weeks or months before that's a possibility. The Allies have to build the airfield (any airfield within range) and reach the point where I can afford to devote some of the capacity to bombers. If I comprehend the storm that's about to be unleashed, the day for any kind of systematic bombing campaign of distant strategic targets is a long, long, long way off.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

House Rule prevents strat bombing until 1944.

Obvert, think about the rationale behind your proposal. As I read it, you'd in essence be arguing: (1) the Allies can't risk a carrier fight because if they lose the KB will control the sea lanes; so (2) the Allies should let the KB alone, in which case the KB will control the sea lanes.

Don't both of those options equate to no supply going to Sumatra?

No matter what, though, John is in a pickle IMO (Hey! I also realize he can put a world or hurting on me, but I won't address that at the moment). To blockade Sumatra he has to use his full fleet indefinitely, leaving the rest of the map vacant. Even then, he has to to deal with the threat posed by the Allied fleet and the variety of ways to get supply to Sumatra (which, at the moment, is flush with supply). Sabang isn't far from Ceylon.

Remember when the Allies invaded the Gilberts on June 4? It took six weeks for John to evict the invaders even though his carriers were unopposed and the Allied garrisons were small and out of supply. How much more difficult (and time consuming) will the task be in this case?

Not at all. My rationale is simply that this is risky. Not that you should avoid combat. Avoiding and being careful are different things. The common viewpoint is that it is ALWAYS advantageous to the Allies to trade CVs. I'm simply saying that this is not the case here, and that it's very early to think you can control the seas and skies with the available ships and airframe replacements.

Someone has to jump off the bandwagon and try to assess the difficulties in what you're doing rather than just getting out the pompoms. I'm sure you've done quite a bit of that, but it's hard to keep perspective when everyone else is bowing at your feet, yes? [;)] I think you need that more than the clap hands icons right now.

I'm sure this has happened before in some AE or WITP game. Maybe someone else has a more experienced view to provide context of the challenges you'll face.

[Canoerebel]

I didn't realize everybody was bowing at my feet! Are they really? There have been some "congratulations," but mainly I think the comments are running to "have you thought of this" and "what do you think about that" kind of things (which is as it should be).

Rest assured that I'm not looking for a stalemated carrier battle. I don't like losing flattops! I lost a bunch to John in our WitP match six years ago (Arg, the cries of "Banzai" still trouble my thoughts) and nearly an entire fleet in a game vs. Miller. Losing carriers is bad mojo! (For those who are unconvinced, I refer you to crsutton, who has from time to time expressed strong feelings about the Allies losing carriers early.)

[Schlemiel]

I don't think either player relishes the thought of sudden sumatra mobile air defense force and line of communication loss syndrome (ssmadflocls).

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't realize everybody was bowing at my feet! Are they really? There have been some "congratulations," but mainly I think the comments are running to "have you thought of this" and "what do you think about that" kind of things (which is as it should be).

Rest assured that I'm not looking for a stalemated carrier battle. I don't like losing flattops! I lost a bunch to John in our WitP match six years ago (Arg, the cries of "Banzai" still trouble my thoughts) and nearly an entire fleet in a game vs. Miller. Losing carriers is bad mojo! (For those who are unconvinced, I refer you to crsutton, who has from time to time expressed strong feelings about the Allies losing carriers early.)

Well, it's not all comments, but the 'war-winning move' type of message has predominated. I'm not saying I wasn't giving kudos and using the bowing icon as you revealed the move (I was[:)]).

What prompted my thoughts was actually some of my own research into the Allied airframe OOB looking not only at replacement rates but including those arriving in groups. Although there are a significant amount, most are poor quality planes that function best in a defensive role in rear areas rather than on the front lines and being relied upon for offensive missions.

All he'd need would be a good CAP trap set that your CV air fell into, or a CV battle that sent a lot of CVs back to be repaired, and you'd be looking at serious deficiency in keeping your bases covered with P-40s, P-39s and Hurri IIc. You'll have a few P-38s of course, but those are dear, and not to be used in defense against multiple Tojo sweeps I'd guess. The numbers don't pick up for a while.

[Canoerebel]

11/15/42 - Operaton Des Wallace, D+5

Forces begin to converge, the Allies make some progress and encounter some frustration, and the stakes continue to rise.

Sumatra at Sea: A three-DD TF tangles with BBs Ise and Nagato at Singapore. No damage to either side. Both IJ ships are showing "some smoke." Indications that the enemy flett might be a bit tuckered. Neither Allied bombardment force goes in, neither do the bigger combat TFs targeting Victoria Point, nor do the minelayers. I think that's going to change tonight. But RN DD Inconstant, on patrol at VP after departing Akyab, sank several xAK and then damaged a DD. Allied carrier strike aricraft sank another DD or two, but largely the mission was ineffective. I think I'm going to stand down the fast BBs and send them back to Sabang to refuel. There's much more enemy air active now (BB Washington took two scratch-hits from Kate-dropped bombs and SigInt indicated day sago that John was transferring an Air Flotilla HQ to that base). I also think I'll move the carriers a bit further away from John's best bases (VP and Port Blair). I'll leave it to the cruisers and destroyers to molest VP (tonight, hopefully). No sign of enemy carriers.

Sumatra in the Air: Scattered strikes by Vals and Kates pick off a few naked xAK and the like. Helens from Victoria Point hit Allied troops at several of the Malaya targets, doing no damage (but a further indication that the air war is rapidly heating up). Engineers fixed all the structural damage at Sabang last turn, and today the airfield went from 3.47 to 3.50. I think it'll increase much more rapidly from here on as the Allies have alot of engineers.

Sumatra on the Ground: The crititical shock attack at Sibolga comes off at just shy of 1:1, doesn't touch 4 forts, but does much higher damage to the Japanese. The Jungle/Rough terrian plus the forts is making this hard, but the Japanese are weaking (and I'm hoping John is more concered about other bases for reinforcement). Both Allied attacks on the Malaya islands (Phuket and the next one south) succeed. The deliberate attack at Alor Star is a 1:2. The Japanese take much higher casualties, so there's a chance here. 37th Div. will be ready to combat load tomorrow to invade Langsa, while 1st Marines and two tank units are coming down the coastal road. I have 27th Div. in reserve. I can use it, though, because the final division will arrive in just a few days, providing security for Sabang. So, where does 27th Div. go? Either to Alor Star or to Langsa/Medan. Not sure yet. An Indian brigade begins landing at Alor Star tomorrow.

Tomorrow: Major increase in IJ air activity plus proximity of Nagato and Ise mean John's going to spring forward to fight soon. After five days, the Allies have probably just about depleted the "shock and awe" factor, though the surface combat raids on VP, various fast transports missions, plus the use of paratroops beginning in just a few days, will keep John a bit off balance. I hope and suspect his main focus is Alor Star and other vulnerable Malaya bases until he's got his LOC secure.

Burma: Movement dots continue to indicate large rearward movement by Japanese forces. Allied 1EB and 2EB hammer several divisions in open terrain. The Allies are on the march here, thought it's not yet clear how far John intends to retire and how much he intends to leave behind to fight.

[JocMeister]

A bit curious on your landings. Are you landing you forces almost unprepped in general? I´m thinking of all these "on the fly" invasion? At least it sounds like they are "on the fly"? [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the "only the fly" landings have no prep.

37th Div., though is about 45% prepped for Langsa.

[JocMeister]

Never dared to try such a landing! Tried once with a 50ish prepped ID. Had about 60-65% disablements! What do your units look like after a totally unprepared landing? [X(]