The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[desicat]

Both the book and movie provide a direct example of this via Col Moore. In the movie they show him squaring off in all four cardinal directions and lost in thought before he pronounces upcoming disaster.

We Were Soldiers Once....and Young

The casualty notification process as detailed by the book and movie was heartbreaking.

[Canoerebel]

A young pro faced a tough second shot on a par five. As he addressed the ball, his caddie - a wise old gent who had been a champion in his prime - encouraged him to forsake the safe shot and try for an arcing hook over a stand of pines to strke straight at the green. If he could pull it off, the caddie encouraged, he might be in position for an eagle and a shot at winning the tournament.

So, does the young pro go for the game winning shot or does he stick within what he knows and trusts, aiming for the less tantalizing but clearly achievable birdie or par? He elects to do the latter, knowing that the arching hook is something he hasn't tried before, could end up in a double bogie, and is something he needs to work on before trying it under game conditions.

Ditto here. While the excellent pro knows exactly what to do and how to do it, I don't. I"d be messing with the compicated mechanics of a golf swing without knowing all the repurcussions and things I might affect. Do I risk a solid position by trying to morph it into something I may not see and understand because I haven't been here before and haven't practiced it? No. But next tournament, after absorbing the experience of this one, thinking it over and "practicing the shot," yes, maybe I do.

Thanks to the old pro here, I have added some tweaks. I think they've been effective, so I'm grateful, though I'm not yet sure of the long term benefits and consequences. But for now, I'm going for the birdie or par, knowing that the eagle might lead me right to a double bogie.

[princep01]

A very good analogy and a shot well conceived.  Were I you, I'd do exactly the same.
 
Is the end result any different if the old pro's eagle produces a win and the same result occurs from the birdie?  The game is the Allies to lose.

[JohnDillworth]

quote:

I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine



BEST.... LINE ..... EVER !!!!! I'm making it my sig.


In other news:
Actually what we're seeing here isn't coup d'oeuil. You need that for it but it is an extension beyond coup d'oeuil whereby one not only has a perfect instant grasp of the situation but also can see how it unfolds.

It isn't fingerspitzengefuehl either although I think that's actually closer but also has the imputation of an ability to sense the critical point and time instinctively which clearly hasn't been a feature of this plan as the critical point and time haven't quite been pursued by the necessary force(s).

I'm not sure what you'd call it except for saying that he has a sense of how things will unfold but I'm also sure there must be a good one-word summation for that. Hmm, don't ask me what it is though, it isn't my first language. You native English speakers need to figure this one out

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

I'm thrilled & honored. you need not credit me in your signature. GreyJoy is the real hero of spelling. I'm just an awful speller, but English is my first language so I have no excuses. Our Italian friend has turned misspelling into an art.[:'(]

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A young pro faced a tough second shot on a par five. As he addressed the ball, his caddie - a wise old gent who had been a champion in his prime - encouraged him to forsake the safe shot and try for an arcing hook over a stand of pines to strke straight at the green. If he could pull it off, the caddie encouraged, he might be in position for an eagle and a shot at winning the tournament.

So, does the young pro go for the game winning shot or does he stick within what he knows and trusts, aiming for the less tantalizing but clearly achievable birdie or par? He elects to do the latter, knowing that the arching hook is something he hasn't tried before, could end up in a double bogie, and is something he needs to work on before trying it under game conditions.

Ditto here. While the excellent pro knows exactly what to do and how to do it, I don't. I"d be messing with the compicated mechanics of a golf swing without knowing all the repurcussions and things I might affect. Do I risk a solid position by trying to morph it into something I may not see and understand because I haven't been here before and haven't practiced it? No. But next tournament, after absorbing the experience of this one, thinking it over and "practicing the shot," yes, maybe I do.

Thanks to the old pro here, I have added some tweaks. I think they've been effective, so I'm grateful, though I'm not yet sure of the long term benefits and consequences. But for now, I'm going for the birdie or par, knowing that the eagle might lead me right to a double bogie.

I think there is a technical term for your ability to calculate what you can make happen CR: gut feel! Just ask NCIS Special Agent Gibbs. [;)]

[Bullwinkle58]

One of the curses of having a Very Popular AAR (tm) is the amount of advice you get. It's all well-intended, but it reflects both the style of the poster and everyone's lack of total understanding of the map. Only you have that.

It's your game, it's 1942. You have time to go slow(er).

You have the story about two golfers. I recall the joke about the old bull and the young bull looking down the hill at the herd of cows. The young bull says, "Let's RUN down there, get us a cow, and 'service' her!"

The old bull sighs and replies, "Nah, let's WALK down there and 'service' 'em all."

[Canoerebel]

Next turn sent to John. A few notes:

1. Sabang airfield went to 4.01, an increase of .24 and a two-turn average of .255. At that rate, the field goes to level five in no more than five days.

2. Key Allied attacks scheduled tomorrow at Sibolga, Alor Star and Langsa.

3. Allied carriers can replenish at Sabang, though doing so carries the risk of having them caught in port that turn.

4. Using bombardment TFs to suppress the biggest nearby enemy airfields VP (and soon at Georgetown) will be vital. With the fall of Singora (level 5) to Marine 'chutes, the only other "open" major field north of Singapore/Johore Bharu is Kota Bharu (level four) - and of course Port Blair, though that's a little bit too distant to particpate in battles over the main area.

5. If John can't land his Burma army at VP, his only options are to air transports (leaving behind heavy equipemnt) or to march through the jungle. I don't think either of those are acceptable, so he either has to bust the Allied "blockade" by winning a carrier battle and taking over the sea lanes or cobbling together something less permanent but perhaps acceptable (such as imposing some kind of air umbrella from the Gulf of Siam).

[Canoerebel]

John's email: "Your freebies are now done my Friend..."

Mr. OpSec struts again....

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's email: "Your freebies are now done my Friend..."

Mr. OpSec struts again....

[:D]

[Canoerebel]

11/18/42

Malaya and Sumatra on Land: The Allies take Alor Star (finally!), thus cutting the Malaysian peninsula in half. It should take John some time to address this and restore rail operations between Bangkok and Singapore. An important victory. The attack at Sibolga nearly succeeds, wiping out a small detachment of 4th Div. (late in Burma), driving down raw AV to nearly zero, and dropping forts from 4 to 3. John targeted Sibolga with a bombardment (led by Fuso, it did little damge) and some Helen raids. Unless I miss my guess, I think this base falls tomorrow. (IMHO, this is now the critical battle - take Sibolga and I'm confident I can hold northern Sumatra into the far term no matter what happens between now and then.) That attack at Langsa fails because two fast transport AMC don't reach the beach with a sizeable part of 27th Div. But the Allies are now rolling down the road to this base, with 10th Garrison unit wiped out (finally) by the advance tank unit. Sabang airfield to 4.22 (an increase of .21, so perhaps four more days to level 5).

Theater at Sea: Things are heating up with Japan considerably more aggressive. In addition to Fuso, a small DD TF in the Malacca Straits gets the better of Burke's Fletchers, sinking one. Out in the IO, three IJN DDs damage and chase off picket ship DD Perkins. With Alor Star in Allied hands, bombardment TFs can now focus on VP (two go in tonight) and Georgetown (one goes in tonight). CA Quincy leads a combat TF into Sibolga tonight (I thought it would make it last night, in which case it would have tousled with Fuso). This is mainly to guard against a fast transport landing. Lots of naked xAKs get beat up on by IJ LBA today. There are just a small number of ships left out there now, though, so the Allied perimeter is beginning to tighten. Lots of shipping bewteen Sabang and Colombo (and, indeed, many TFs have already departed Colombo, some to head back to Oz, some to take station at Bombay).

Theater in the Air: No major activity, other than the IJ bombing (from Port Blair) of naked ships mainly heading back to Colombo. Sabang has 150+ fighters now.

Strategic: The severing of the enemy LOC through Malaysia is complete. I think this vastly complicates John's position - especially in Burma, with its vast muster roll of infantry divisions. The Allies have 2nd Mar. 'Chutes ashore at Sabang now - I think one detachment will hit Naikon St. Thanai while a second will perhaps help out at Sibolga (I don't think paratroops half defensive AV any more, but I'm willing to err on the side of giving it a shot). Sibolga tomorrow is key, key, key.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A young pro faced a tough second shot on a par five. As he addressed the ball, his caddie - a wise old gent who had been a champion in his prime - encouraged him to forsake the safe shot and try for an arcing hook over a stand of pines to strke straight at the green. If he could pull it off, the caddie encouraged, he might be in position for an eagle and a shot at winning the tournament.

So, does the young pro go for the game winning shot or does he stick within what he knows and trusts, aiming for the less tantalizing but clearly achievable birdie or par? He elects to do the latter, knowing that the arching hook is something he hasn't tried before, could end up in a double bogie, and is something he needs to work on before trying it under game conditions.

Ditto here. While the excellent pro knows exactly what to do and how to do it, I don't. I"d be messing with the compicated mechanics of a golf swing without knowing all the repurcussions and things I might affect. Do I risk a solid position by trying to morph it into something I may not see and understand because I haven't been here before and haven't practiced it? No. But next tournament, after absorbing the experience of this one, thinking it over and "practicing the shot," yes, maybe I do.

Thanks to the old pro here, I have added some tweaks. I think they've been effective, so I'm grateful, though I'm not yet sure of the long term benefits and consequences. But for now, I'm going for the birdie or par, knowing that the eagle might lead me right to a double bogie.

Or...the beautifully played controlled draw lands on the edge of the green and trickles into the hole for a doube eagle

....or the trick shot hooks into the creek, you take the stoke, hit into the back bunker and then three-put for a Snowman, toss your putter into the crowd, braining a senior partner of a law firm that specializes in slip and fall cases and.........

A lot of water hazards in AE

[paullus99]

How are your plans moving along for bring in additional "defensive" forces to keep what you have? John is bound to come running with as much as he can throw together.....be nice to hold on to some of those key areas you've just taken - especially the outliers....

[Cribtop]

The dead picket DD is surely an effort by John to clear a hole for KB to pass, no?

[JohnDillworth]

BTW, how is your supply situation ashore and your fuel situation offshore (AO's)?

[Canoerebel]

All Allied troops have arrived (with the exception of some "new" units coming in from India). The Allies have 8+ divisions ashore, including six complete divisions, with an Indian division incoming). Here's how I think things will shake out:

1. Sabang-Langsa-Medan: Three or four divisions will be present along main corredor. Langsa is essentially certain to fall. Medan I'm not positive yet, only because it's going to be awhile before I get there, allowing John to reinforce, though he has his own challenges in that regard. I don't foresee John posing any serious threat into the far term to whatever core position the Allies take here.

2. Sibolga: Critical battle here. The Allies have more than a division. Take the base and the back door is secure for a long, long time. John will find an invasion next to impossible (it'll wreck his units) and a land campaign long and difficult. Sibolga is key.

3. Sumatra Islands: The Allies have small garrisons at each of the four northernmost islands. John can take these, though not by paratroop drop. Patrols operating out of the northern two right now.

4. Malaysia Islands: The Allies have two - Phuket is weakly held but should be reinforced tonight. The island to the south is held fairly strongly (roughly 60 AV of 18th UK Div.). These won't be easy for John. Patrols operating out of Phuket.

5. Malaysia mainlaind: The Allies hold Alor Star in strength - 150+ AV. It should prove much more difficult for John to retake this base than it took me to get it the first time. Even with an all-out effort, I bet it's at least three weeks. Singora is held by about 35 AV 'Chutes. I plan to reinforce. John should try to take this by para assault or fast transport mission. He'll probably give this priority adn succeed. Hopefully, the Allies will take at least one more base, possibly two, thus making John's task that much more irksome and complicated.

6. Nicobars: The Allies have occuped two of these with patrols out of both. Both will get small garrisons to guard against para assault.

The Alllies are already in a position to wage a long battle here - lots of supply, lots of support, lots of troops. Take Sibolga, and I'm confident I can turn this into a war-winning position. Don't take Sibolga and the outcome is less certain for the Allies in Sumatra, but even then it's a long-term, fullscale commitment for Japan.

[Canoerebel]

Supply - 300k at Sabang - and fuel are in excellent condition right now.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
The dead picket DD is surely an effort by John to clear a hole for KB to pass, no?

I certainly think so...and if so, John selects Door # 1.

[Encircled]

And it plays exactly like you've planned it.

If he's coming in "hot", then he could get himself into real trouble

[Canoerebel]

I think it's almost a certainty that John gets in some heavy licks at first. That's just the nature of the beast. Until he shows up, I will keep pushing hard - reinforcing, bringing in supply and reinforcements, bombarding. I have patrols and pickets out, but he should be able to craft some kind of leap forward that will catch some of my "assets" in a vulnerable position. Job one for me is to protect my core assets - Sabang airfield and my carriers. John can't win this battle without taking out one of those two.

[paullus99]

Looks like you did bring the "kitchen sink." Developing a series of interlocking airbases with the ability to keep rotating in and out air units, while pushing hard in Burma - got to be a JFB's nightmare....if / when you are able to start limited offensive operations elsewhere, John is going to have to make some hard decisions as to how to split his resources.....