The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JohnDillworth]

Looks like you did bring the "kitchen sink." Developing a series of interlocking airbases with the ability to keep rotating in and out air units, while pushing hard in Burma - got to be a JFB's nightmare....if / when you are able to start limited offensive operations elsewhere, John is going to have to make some hard decisions as to how to split his resources.....

I wonder if John is contemplating a rescue mission of his troops in Burnma? Bring a convoy in, load em up with the best and brightest divisions, protect em with the KB and deposit them in an advantageous place? Beats walking and a troop convoy of that magnitude would certaining be a tempting target that might bring the USN out to play. To risky me thinks, even for a player that needs a 4 run homer

[Cribtop]

I once had a PBEM opponent start the traditional e-mail banter for turn one by saying: "Good luck! See you in about four years in Tokyo Bay... Remember to bring a pen."

The situation in this game is starting to remind me of that hilarious missive. IMHO John brings the whole IJN to a fight it loses and then is REALLY up a creek, resulting in a death spiral. Maybe I'm being a little over-optimistic from CR's perspective, but that's my bet.

[paullus99]

John isn't one to shy away from a fight - especially one where he feels he can inflict "crippling" defeats on this opponent. He'll bring his own kitchen sink here, I'm sure.....as for abandoning Burma, I doubt it - he'll have to withdraw, but he will leave enough behind to try to hold what he can, for as long as he can.

Of course, this pretty much cancels anything he might have had planned in China....

[The Sandman]

Here's a question, now that you've got Alor Star: how much more would you have to send into Malaya to have a serious chance at liberating all of it down to Singapore? And would it be worth it to use all of your unrestricted US troops there instead of the traditional CenPac or SWPac campaigns?

And are there any bases you can get to relatively soon in either Sumatra or Malaya that produce a respectable amount of supply?

Once you know that the KB is in the Indian Ocean, would it be worth it to refuse a carrier battle completely and instead run your own carriers into the Java or South China Seas to pay a visit to Tarakan or Miri? And if so, go with the usual complement, or shuffle the air groups so that some of the carriers are toting nothing but strike aircraft? In fact, that might be a really nasty trick, assuming I'm not overlooking a basic reason why it wouldn't work; split your air groups so that some of your carriers have nothing but fighters and the others have nothing but bombers. Send the bomber-laden carriers on a high-speed run through the DEI to smash as many tankers, oilers and other resource-carrying ships as possible, keep the fighter-laden ones as bait for KB and use them to chop apart the veteran air groups when they try to punch through your stronger-than-normal CAP.

[CowboyRonin]

ORIGINAL: The Sandman

Here's a question, now that you've got Alor Star: how much more would you have to send into Malaya to have a serious chance at liberating all of it down to Singapore? And would it be worth it to use all of your unrestricted US troops there instead of the traditional CenPac or SWPac campaigns?

And are there any bases you can get to relatively soon in either Sumatra or Malaya that produce a respectable amount of supply?

Once you know that the KB is in the Indian Ocean, would it be worth it to refuse a carrier battle completely and instead run your own carriers into the Java or South China Seas to pay a visit to Tarakan or Miri? And if so, go with the usual complement, or shuffle the air groups so that some of the carriers are toting nothing but strike aircraft? In fact, that might be a really nasty trick, assuming I'm not overlooking a basic reason why it wouldn't work; split your air groups so that some of your carriers have nothing but fighters and the others have nothing but bombers. Send the bomber-laden carriers on a high-speed run through the DEI to smash as many tankers, oilers and other resource-carrying ships as possible, keep the fighter-laden ones as bait for KB and use them to chop apart the veteran air groups when they try to punch through your stronger-than-normal CAP.

The problem with completely splitting groups is that you would end up with strike groups with no escorts. In game, you cannot control where Naval Attack missions go - there is no targeting. One CAP trap with fighter trainers (Nates, Claudes, obsolete Oscars, etc), and you lose a large number of valuable strike aircraft and pilots. On the flip side, CR can, and probably has, augmented his fighter groups with Marine units that are carrier-capable, but don't start carrier-trained. You can easily put up some pretty impressive CAP with that. Also, at this point in the war, USN carriers are operating under some coordination restrictions regarding multi-carrier groups. I'm not sure exactly when those are removed, but I think it's not until sometime in 1943.

[Canoerebel]

11/19/42 - D+9, Operation Des Wallace

My experience has been that alot of things that just sound good in the dark of the night take on an entirely different aspect in the light of day. A cool plan you conceive of one day ends up looking very risky as D-Day approaches 60 days later, etc. Popping the Allied carriers into the South China Sea or Java Sea would be pretty much playing Russian Roulette with five of the six chambers loaded.

On Land: Almost! Almost! The Allied attack at Sibolga comes off at 3:1, drops forts to 2, and destroys something like 25 squads. I think the base will fall tomorrow, but it is agonizing to wait as the chance of a fast transport mission coming in seems high. The CA Quincy group hung back last night (why, I dunno) but looks primed to visit the port tonight, so hopefully no fast transport can come in. 27th USA Div. looks to be in pretty good shape and will shock attack at Langsa tomorrow. I think the odds are favorable, but even if this fails, two more divisions are a few hexes away and will reach Langsa in five days or so. John's early "counter attack" moves against Singora appear to consist of Thai units.

In the Air: Another devastating Allied bombardment run vs. VP - I think John has had to vacate the field. And two fast BBs unleash the first bombardment vs. Georgetown, which also has good results. Nevertheless, Japanese air becoming very pestering now. Lots of Kates (no torps) from Singapore, etc. picked off more AKs plus two nice AMC that had just finished the FT run to Langsa. Netties from Port Blair reached out farther than I expected to pick off more ships - some empty xAKs but also some xAPs loaded with an Indian division (that hurts). The LOC between Sabang and Colombo has a big jog to the west to avoid Port Blair, but some TFs keep refusing to obey waypoint instructions. Sabang airfield goes to 4.46, in increase of .24 on the day, so this base should go to level 5 in three days.

At Sea: No sign of the KB (yet). Lots of Allied ships continue the retrograde to Colombo and thence to other places. I'm going to have half a dozen lightly to moderately damaged DDs at Colombo within a few day and the yards are already crammed with CAs and CLs still repairing from the Second Battle of Assam and later action (Pensacola and New Orleans are there along with Boise and Mauritius).

Japanese Plans/Allied Plans: I believe John has one of two choices: (1) to institute some kind of Dunkirk operation for Burma, using his carriers. I don't think that's an attractive option to John because it puts his carriers in a tight corner, (2) to win a carrier battle that allows him to impose a blockade of Sumatra and just continue on with the ground war in Burma. To me that's the much more attractive option. I think John is therefore in the position of having to seek and having to win a carrier battle. I think the Allies are in the position of having to avoid losing a carrier battle. So I can play around, jousting and parrying while seeking an advantage. One possible advantage will be if the KB skewers itself on LBA (hey, I can hope, can't I?).

[Canoerebel]

There's an IJ TF between Port Blair and Rangoon on an easternly heading, as if for Moulmein. Cursor indicates these a "CVs." If so, those rare relics of the Second Battle of Assam and not leakers inbound from the IO (the Allies have had the sea lanes absolutely saturated with ships and patrols, so there's no possibility John could have sprung these into theater). If these are carriers and hung up in "no man's land," then the situation is that much more dire for John. Stricken BB Mutsu and some number of carriers. Ouch.

[Canoerebel]

The three or four xAPs torched by Netties out of Port Blair weren't carrying troops - they were empty and on the way back to Colombo. The Indian division is intact on transports much closer to Colombo. I'll steer them further west while keeping a weather eye out for the KB.

[JohnDillworth]

There's an IJ TF between Port Blair and Rangoon on an easternly heading, as if for Moulmein. Cursor indicates these a "CVs." If so, those rare relics of the Second Battle of Assam and not leakers inbound from the IO (the Allies have had the sea lanes absolutely saturated with ships and patrols, so there's no possibility John could have sprung these into theater). If these are carriers and hung up in "no man's land," then the situation is that much more dire for John. Stricken BB Mutsu and some number of carriers. Ouch.

Bait?

[Canoerebel]

Are they are aren't they? The cursor says they are.

[Canoerebel]

D+9

[princep01]

After a quiet Sunday, the AAR leaps forward!
 
Some thoughts.
1.  Would a IJA paradrop in the Nicobar Is be simply a great way for the IJA to waste paratroops?  What good purpose would they serve IJ?
 
2.  HAve to agree w/ Crib that the destruction of the picket ships is a path clearing op.  Door 1 looks like the door.
 
3.  Do you know what is coming down the road to Singora (the north coast base you took w/ paras)?   

[Canoerebel]

The unit coming down the road is Thai infantry, roughly 60-70 AV.

The Nicobars are undoubtedly much lower priority that some of the other islands, but John has a menu full of items that must be taken and he might decide to begin with some easier pickings.

[princep01]

And to John's comment about "no more freebies", well, I'd say you don't need anymore freebies anyway. 
 
One more question.  Was it part of your original plan to also land quickly in Malaya or was that a Nemo inspired adjunct to the Sumatra Smackdown?

[Canoerebel]

Nemo deserves much credit for that. I probably would have snapped up the vacant islands on my own initiative. Then, had things gone well, I might have tinkered with a move on Alor Star and paratroop drops on some of the peninsula bases, but I think any such moves (especially an invasion) would have been considerably delayed.

Readers of John's AAR will know far more than I do, but I think the moves have paid handsome dividends in forcing John to attend to Malaya, thus perhaps buying critical time for the Allies to deal with Sibolga.

Bottom Line: Nemo.

[Schlemiel]

There's a reason 3 year olds are obsessed with finding nemo. It's all about securing Sydney harbor with a deft strike against Malaysia.

[princep01]

Nemo is a gifted strategic thinker.  The other Nemo is gifted at avoiding sharks.
 
The Great Leap Forward is closing the Greyjoy gap...he hears the growing patter of many feet rushing toward him.  Zombies, Moriarty, barbarians, pasta thieves, his many broken hearted girl-friends?  What evil his way comes?

[Canoerebel]

11/20/42 - D+10, Operation Des Wallace

On the Gounrd: The Allies finally take Sibolga on a 4:1 attack that overcomes the two forts. A tough campaign that has left the new garrison low on supply, this was a critical gain. It closes either the back door or front door, depending on how you look at it. Near Langsa, 27th Div.'s attack comes off at 3:1, drops forts from 2 to 0, but fails to take the hex. It should fall tomorrow, and then over the next three or four days, three tank units and two infantry divisions will arrive (1st Marines, which is rather depleted, and 32nd, which is very fresh). Part of 58th RCT is air lifted to Singora, bolstering combined AV to about 50. I think an IJ fast transport invasion is approaching.

In the Air: A few Japanese attacks claim another xAK or two. Sabang airfield goes to 4.73, an increase of .27. This field should reach five day after tomorrow. 180 fighters - mainly P-40K and F4F-4 - based here.

At Sea: Enemy carriers, strength unkown, launch a small Kate raid that picks off a picket ship NW of Cocos Island. Allied BBs bombard Georgetown (and will continue to do so). Another bombardment TF to hit VP tonight. No sign of those "carrier" reported up near Rangoon yesterday.

Operation Des Wallace: All amphibious ships have reached port and unloaded - including that lonely, low-on-fuel TF that limped into Diego Garcia with three SBD squadrons. That said, and with Sibolga finally in Allied hands, the amphibious nature of this operation has concluded. This will now morph into a land campaign for Medan and a campaign by sea and air to protect the Allied position. Reinforcements are en route from India, including one carrying a large AA unit that will unload at Sabang tongiht.

Burma: Indications continue that Japan is mvoing back, though 18th Div. is still blocking the coastal road.

[JohnDillworth]

On the Gounrd: The Allies finally take Sibolga on a 4:1 attack that overcomes the two forts. A tough campaign that has left the new garrison low on supply, this was a critical gain. It closes either the back door or front door, depending on how you look at it. Near Langsa, 27th Div.'s attack comes off at 3:1, drops forts from 2 to 0, but fails to take the hex. It should fall tomorrow, and then over the next three or four days, three tank units and two infantry divisions will arrive (1st Marines, which is rather depleted, and 32nd, which is very fresh). Part of 58th RCT is air lifted to Singora, bolstering combined AV to about 50. I think an IJ fast transport invasion is approaching.

good shooting Tex! Now get support and supply flowing. you have an endless supply of xAK's . don't be afraid to send single ons loaded with supplies to the garrisons. some will get through. How are you fixed for engineers. AAA and base forces in Malaysia? Build, build, build!

[Canoerebel]

Sabang is flush with everything, including base forces, engineers and xAKs.

The Malay Peninsula has nothing except infantry and armor. I have big decisions to make in the next few days. Do I limit Malaya to blocking positions, basically only reinforcing with supply, or do I commit additional troops in an effort to establish an indefinite lodgement? I can make good arguments both ways, but in part this decision will be influenced by whether the Indian division makes it to Sabang in the next five days or so. If so, I have a cushion to play with. If not, I probably don't.