The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[paullus99]

Definitely time to get a pipeline of reinforcements and supply moving in the appropriate directions - of course, pushing hard in Burma is going to keep John looking over his shoulder.

Forcing him into a land campaign is such a good move on your part - as it neutralizes many of the advantages that Japan has in this particular scenario (geared towards fighting the island-hopping campaign in the Pacific).

[Canoerebel]

I concur. Thinking back over the past four months, the Allies are very fortunate that the Aluetians Campaign (Just in Time Reinforcements, Part I) and the New Guinea Campaign (Just in Time Reinforcements, Part II) led to the Sumatra campaign. Of the three, the latter definitely offers the most bang for the buck. Sumatra is as strategically significant as the western Aleutians - perhaps moreso - but also offers the advantage of pocketing an IJ army (and a bunch of ships too, it turns out) in Burma.

In the summer, I went through the experience of successfully invading the Gilberts only to be thrown out (that was okay, from my point of view, because it freed up the Ramree Island operation for success). The coming battle with be vastly bigger with vastly more at stake, and this time both sides are compelled to fight.

[JohnDillworth]

The Malay Peninsula has nothing except infantry and armor. I have big decisions to make in the next few days. Do I limit Malaya to blocking positions, basically only reinforcing with supply, or do I commit additional troops in an effort to establish an indefinite lodgement?

Errrr....are you sure you don't want to edit this statement before Nemo logs on?

[paullus99]

Jeez CR - continue to go big or go home...that's what Nemo is going to say.....

[Canoerebel]

There's a reasonable chance (one that I'm still evaulating) that Malaysia, which it turns out was wide open, needed my full attention and concentration from before D-Day; that trying to cobble together an effort on D+2 or D+4 or now is too late; that John has had too much time to work out potential solutions to his problems; that the Allies can feed in additional reinforcements that will delay Japan but likely will not result in a longterm lodgement on the peninsula; and that the Allies can weaken themselves fatally in Sumatra if I try to "rob Peter to pay Paul" or "dilute my main thrust."

IE, there's no question that Nemo Vision was right on, but it took somebody with his vision and foreplanning to execute the move to it's fullest extent. My vision was more limited, so it might be counterproductive to try to adapt to Nemo Vision now. I'm still evaluating this - I'm air transporting in reinforcements, bringing in supply by APD, and looking at the possibility of inserting the Indian division upon arrival at Sabang. I'll know more in the next couple of days.

Many factors will influence this. For instance, if the Allies win a big carrier battle (hey, I can hope!), then the Malaya Peninsula becomes an obvious fullscale target.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The Malay Peninsula has nothing except infantry and armor. I have big decisions to make in the next few days. Do I limit Malaya to blocking positions, basically only reinforcing with supply, or do I commit additional troops in an effort to establish an indefinite lodgement?

You're kidding, right?

[Lomri]

Alor Star and Singora are just excellent bases to have. Your Sumatra bases keep the back door open (not without some challenges of course). Personally I think you need to exploit Malaysia. Your opponents eye will be drawn towards where you are advancing. By pushing Malaysia you make Sumatra a backwater, something you can clean up at your liesure.

Alor Star and Singora are good defensive hexes. Built forts there. The roads in this area suck so unless you own the rail heads you aren't going anywhere quickly over land. You should be planning on amph landings to cut him off if he does march units to contest these bases. Smaller scale, but for example, if he marches out of George Town to contest Alor Star, you can land on that clear hex and clear it rapidly.

What I don't understand is the idea of needing to dunkirk Burma. Perhaps not getting this invalidates my previous advice. But he can march from Tavoy to Bangkok easily enough with heavy equipment. Plenty of choke points he can use as rear guards too. Sure, it takes about a week to march from Tavoy to Bangkok but still...

What I like best about your position is that from your AAR (I don't read the other side) it really feels like John thinks he is going to win this one with KB. That's how I take his comment about freebies - he'll have KB in theatre soon and everything will change. But KB isn't going to sail into Sabang and flip it back to Japan. Good luck putting that genie back in the bottle!

[Canoerebel]

Seriously.

The coming carrier clash could go either way, right? I mean, the Allied carriers could react, get dispersed, and could lose ugly. Bad ugly. Ugly to the point that John's carriers and combat ships achieve control of the sea lanes. Control such that he can interdict all supply and reinforcement efforts into the distant future.

That's my nightmare scenario. If that happens, the Allied lodgement in Malaya isn't going to have an indefinite shelf life, so the Allied position in Sumatra had better be rock solid.

If, on the other hand, Japan loses a carrier battle - or it is a draw - then the Allies can remain more aggressive.

If the Joint Chiefs see it differently, they need to persuade Admiral King to remove me from command!

[paullus99]

CR needs a large enough lodgement to continue to funnel in troops & ultimately airpower that will make John's entire position in both SE Asia & a significant part of the DEI completely untenable...it won't happen overnight, but once large numbers of 4Es become available, everything within range is going to be toast.

I'm sure John knows this & will fight tooth and nail (and try to kill as many ships as he can) but he's fighting an uphill battle against an opponent that has the initiative - every other time he's managed to inflict crippling losses on the allies, he's done it because he knew they were coming & he was prepared - he is facing the exact opposite situation right now.

[pws1225]

I think I'll just hang out here for a while and wait until Nemo drops by. The subsequant 'discussion' just might make a carrier clash seem tame.

[JohnDillworth]

The coming carrier clash could go either way, right?

Is a carrier battle a "fait accompli"? I don't think you have to have one. He can't stay on station forever without splitting the KB. YOu guys may very well stumble into one but with good air search (which you have) you can certainly choose your fights. The bigger question is how much John is will to compromise so you will fight? I suspect you get to pick the place and maybe the time. As long as your troops are well supplied you can be pretty picky. Wouldn't it be nice if your coming CV's appears and the yard they were historically built at instead of the west coast?

[DW]

All this talk of Nemo reminds me a bit of the "Latin lesson" scene from "Life of Brian".

"No support troops in Malaya?!?!?" Nemo draws his sword and puts it to a cringing Canoerebel's throat.

On another note, everyone seems to think JohnIII will press this battle to it's fullest extent, taking big risks with his carriers to reverse a desperate situation.

However, I seem to recall John failing to intervene decisively in the North Pacific during their last game. He initially reacted strongly, and had some success, but shied away after taking some relatively minor losses to his flattops.

That situation was every bit as dire for John as this one is, but instead of risking his carriers to throw CR off off Sakhalin Island and out of the Kuriles, he went on his Indian adventure instead.

I admit that I've not read John's other AARs. Has he gotten more willing to take losses to his carriers than he was last time around?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Seriously.

The coming carrier clash could go either way, right? I mean, the Allied carriers could react, get dispersed, and could lose ugly. Bad ugly. Ugly to the point that John's carriers and combat ships achieve control of the sea lanes. Control such that he can interdict all supply and reinforcement efforts into the distant future.

That's my nightmare scenario. If that happens, the Allied lodgement in Malaya isn't going to have an indefinite shelf life, so the Allied position in Sumatra had better be rock solid.

If, on the other hand, Japan loses a carrier battle - or it is a draw - then the Allies can remain more aggressive.

If the Joint Chiefs see it differently, they need to persuade Admiral King to remove me from command!

Alright, if you're seriously thinking about abandoning your lodgement on Malaya, I'd suggest you reconsider.

In controlling Singora and the rail bases in 'the neck', you're essentially throttling Singapore. It will take John months to bring an effective response from Burma by foot. True dat-there may be other forces coming in from the home islands, China, elsewhere, but if you think he'll be able to hastily dislodge you from that critical rail line, you're mistaken.

Like Sibolga, a US Division, dug into jungle / rough terrain and supplied will be extremely difficult to dislodge. If you can maintain such a lodgement well into 1943, it can be expanded and be a source for metastasis elsewhere on Malaya. If you can keep Singora, you can bring immediate pressure on the Gulf of Siam, reinforcement into Bangkok and, in short order, Singapore. If you can threaten / render Palembang unusable, you have the ingredients for a tightening gauntlet around his throat.

Agree with others that say that as Malaya heats up, Sumatra will be relegated to secondary importance too.

The risk:reward is decidedly in your favor for playing your hand aggressively on Malaya. You can do a lot of harm to his right flank for a modest price. I'd do it.

[Chickenboy]

Oh, lastly-look at a strategic map (with the little dots on it). The Allied right hook coming across N. Sumatra, across the Malay peninsula pointing towards Saigon, CRB and Formosa should be a beautiful thing to an Allied fanboi. It's pointing right towards victory. Will you ignore the road map?

[Miller]

I think if the proposed CV battle happens and John comes off worse then he will call the game. That is perhaps why Dan is somewhat reluctant to seek this decisive battle bearing in mind neither of his last two games got beyond 42. Could be totally wrong but just a thought.....

[Schlemiel]

I'd suspect that to be part of the calculus on some level as well. Though Canoe does love his fighting retreats in '42.

[Canoerebel]

A couple of things that may lend some perspective:

1. I am not talking about withdrawing from Malaysia! I'm talking about sending in supply and some infantry, but monitoring the situation before deciding whether to commit support troops. (The "wait" period being long enough to let the Indian division arrive and, in the meantime, seeing what else might occur to influence the strategic and operational picture.) I see the value of my Malay bases - goodness, Singora is nearly a level six airfield that will be tough in Japanese hands - but the Allies do not a great deal of additional troops and supply to feed to Malaya at this date. So before I weaken Sumatra, I have to "be sure."

2. The early dates my prior games ended - 1/43 with Q-Ball, 1/43 with Chez, 11/42 with PzH - aren't influencing me at all. What is influencing me is my desire, for reasons previously expressed, to kick John's butt across the map. IE, I want to win this game, the sooner the better.

3. This is by far the largest invasion I've been involved in since either (a) the Allied invasion of coastal China vs. Miller back about four years ago; or (b) my Hokkaido invasion vs. John III back in the WitP days. I've done nothing remotely like this in my games since. This has gone very well, but its immensely complex. I am still operating with the assumption that a November 1942 invasion is still pretty early. I think John still poses a serious threat. I think this invasion represents a knife into his guts, so I don't want to get too flamboyant and pull defeat out of the jaws of victory.

4. I've never won a major carrier battle in AE or WitP in which the two sides were relatively equal. Never. Zero. Zilch. My luck with carrier battles generally runs to them reacting against orders, leaving key amphibious ships they were providing CAP to unguarded, leaving behind key LRCAP I was relying on to provide some measure of equalization against superior enemy forces, and then getting plastered. Therefore, I find big carrier battles daunting. They are often a roll of the dice, and I'm the kinda dude that would much rather control things than let them come down to dice rolls. I'm not excited about taking a 50/50 chance on losing a battle. So, I'll play this pretty carefully. But I can afford to. I still think John has to come to me. I am quite content with the status quo if he wishes to cede it.

5. There is a great deal of fighting yet to come all over this theater. I think it'll be a fun ride.

[Canoerebel]

Uh oh, I think Nemo is in the house...

[Lomri]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The coming carrier clash could go either way, right?

Is a carrier battle a "fait accompli"? I don't think you have to have one. He can't stay on station forever without splitting the KB. YOu guys may very well stumble into one but with good air search (which you have) you can certainly choose your fights. The bigger question is how much John is will to compromise so you will fight? I suspect you get to pick the place and maybe the time. As long as your troops are well supplied you can be pretty picky. Wouldn't it be nice if your coming CV's appears and the yard they were historically built at instead of the west coast?

I'm with John here - you are talking about win, lose our draw with a carrier battle. But you are controlling the tempo so if you want to side step a near term CV battle go for it. Imagine his frustration if he can't find your carriers

[Canoerebel]

11/21/42 - D+11, Operation Des Wallace

On the Ground: 27th USA Div. takes Langsa. It appears Medan is lightly held by one small unit. Further to the rear, Tandjoen has a modest garrison. I think what's happening here is that John's having a hard time feeding troops forward to Tandjoen, which is the closest Sumatran base to Singapore. He's concerend about my subs and combat ships. Tonight I'm sending minelayers forward. I feel pretty confident now that Medan will fall in four or five days and there's a chance the Allies can move on Tandjoen. No major news over at Alor Star and Singora.

On the Seas: Nagato and Ise, both showing some black smoke, bombard Singora, doing heavy damage to the feild but none to the garrison. Having BBs operating out in the Gulf of Siam is another example of the Nemo Dividend (and the very thing you guys are positing - that Malaysia siphons off enemy interest from Sumatra). Allied bombardment TFs hit VP (John's pulled out his damaged aircraft, as best I can tell) and Georgetown, catching a bunch of aircraft on the ground. The enemy carrier TF (unknown strength) operating NW of Cocos claims a picket xAK.

In the Air: Sibolga airfield goes to level 4.99. Not very much air activity today as most Allied ships are currently within the main perimeter or on the way back to Colombo.

Burma: Various Allied troops are emerging from the jungle and taking new positions - two Indian brigades, for instance, have bisected the rail line north of Schwebo. Movement dots still indicating a general Japanese withdrawal. Somebody made the valid point that the John can march overland from Tavoy to Bangkok to extract his army from Burma if necessary. True, but the main point has been that it will take John probably two months to get units from Burma into the contested ground at Sumatra. Since he has ten or so divisions committed in Burma, that forces him to haul in units from other distant locales, which will be tough and time consuming.