Micheal T (Ger) vs Kamil (Sov)

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Kamil has probably close to 5-5.25 million men now and will receive 100 divisions / equivilents (800,000 men) by turn 50. So he will easly have 6+ million by May.

According to MTs thread he had 4.365m at end of german turn 16.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

ORIGINAL: Walloc

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Kamil has probably close to 5-5.25 million men now and will receive 100 divisions / equivilents (800,000 men) by turn 50. So he will easly have 6+ million by May.

According to MTs thread he had 4.365m at end of german turn 16.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

Between 17-24 SHC receives 60 divisions and the other 100 25-50. No combat during mud turns = 88k per turn for SHC and a loss in troops/morale for GHC as they are far past railheads=supplies.

Also the manpower grows back so there is an increase in manpower output yr after yr not a decrease.

As Kamil flips manpower centers he gets a small boost as the output from each center is held at each city until retaken.

When GHC falls apart it happens very quickly.

Smokendave lost a game and he was as far east as MT.

IF MT does not VP out in 42 Kamil can still get a draw. Allot depends on MT tactics in 42-43. We have seen allot of guys do far better then historical and lose out right. Generally because GHC players keep attacking and burn up their armys. aka 0 late war exp and not reading AAR's.

People are simply over looking the AAR's and assuming allot before the games played out into 44

[Flaviusx]

Pelton, the vast majority of those reinforcements are shells. If you haven't got the replacements to fill them up, they will stay as shells.

As Walloc indictates, Kamil is going into mud with 4.3 million or so. I'd say about 100k of that is stuff that's surrounded and will die.

Kamil I am guessing is getting about 120k replacements a turn. Attrition will knock that down to about 90k. So figure Kamil goes into snow with around 4.8 million. Micheal will probably kill at least some stuff during snow, so let's just call that a wash.

Over the course of the Blizzard, Kamil will start growing again. Slowly. From January on, the new replacement multiplier kicks in. That will drop him below 100k/turn. Probably closer to 90k/turn. Between combat operations and attrition it's doubtful he will net half that amount per turn in growth, if that. Let's say he picks up about 700,000 over the course of the blizzard. That puts him at 5.5 million going into snow. He won't grow during that period, MT will launch counterattacks. Kamil could even lose a lot of stuff during a period of March madness. Let's take back, conservatively speaking, 100k over March, dropping Kamil back to 5.4 million going into mud.

Mud will allow him to grow again, by about 60k/turn net after taking attrition losses. But it is difficult to see how he gets much over 6 million before it clears up again. The the 42 German summer offensive is launched from very advanced positions.

I assume his armament situation is fairly catastrophic, btw.

[Walloc]

Just to add. In reinforcements while most divs are indeed shells, the russian gets 600k in Manpower from there all included. (1/4) is HQs and such.

Rasmus

[Peltonx]

I be surpised if he doesn't have 5 million in December.

600k worth of shells? I was close 800k.

I am simply basing my info on my past 4 games. I am not really guessing.

4.2 + 600k = 4.8 million. Plus .5 during mud by Flaviusx math = 5.3 + .7 during blizzard = 6.0 million- 100k then plus another round of mud probably 350k = 6.25 million.

I am guessing over 6.5 million but we will see.

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Pelton
600k worth of shells? I was close 800k.

I am simply basing my info on my past 4 games. I am not really guessing.

I earlier today and added up all the reinforcements in men per the reinforcement schedule from turn 16 to 50, in rough numbers. I excluded the 20 man shells, I didnt bother with those. To much work. So unless my calculator let me down i would say around 600k, yes.

[Flaviusx]

So not 7 million then or anywhere near that, yeah. 6 million and change at most. And a very poor replacement situation going into summer of 42. MT conceivably could begin the summer at or near the Don. He's already trashed a lot of stuff past that, all the way up to Saratov and Stalingrad practically.

If I were him I'd try very hard to hold on to Voronezh. Kamil is going to have a hell of a time taking all that real estate back there and getting his rail repaired.

A massive panzerball planted in the center of the map and with a bridgehead across the Don in summer of 42 can do more or less whatever it wants to do and divide the Red Army in half between Moscow and Stalingrad and threaten both, not to mention the rear area of Moscow near Gorky.

[janh]

Unless Michael commits huge mistakes, and unless he wins by VP in 42, I think the best that Kamil can still reach is a draw? It remains amazing what Michael can get out of this engine. It looks like teaching the Wehrmacht that there never where any logistic shortages during Barbarossa...[&:]

[Balou]

Sad truth is, we will probably never know as far as this game is concerned. Michael T quit yesterday (see his post).

[M60A3TTS]

Sorry to see this one end, it would have been interesting to see how it played out. I'm not sure how far my own game with Mehring will go. Like MT, he's dealing with RL issues as well.

[Balou]

I found this GC remarkable for it's huge territorial gains ie. manpower, since recent discussions many times centered around the importance of manpower (centers). Going as far east as MT did would suggest a serious damage to any Red Army 2.0 build up before time is running out.

[KamilS]

T17 north & Moscow (Soviet)


Unfortunately game has to be abandoned.

Situation at the end of summer.


In the north northing has happened for several turns.

At Moscow approaches situation has been stabilised.


I made several successful counter-attacks.

There are 6 encircled units - weak infantry divisions and 2 tank formations. Small loss.

[KamilS]

T17 centre & Stalingrad (Soviet)


South-eastern flank of Soviet's capital seems to be secure. I managed to reopen corridor to encircled troops.

1 divisions (weak) will be destroyed in Penza.


I unleashed horde of anaemic units to put some pressure on overly exposed German forces - most of them should be isolated due to distance from railhead.

[KamilS]

T17 south (Soviet)

I failed to rescue encircled troops (4 units), but during the course of my counter-attacks I inflicted decent losses on German panzers.

[KamilS]

T17 Crimea (Soviet)


Crimea still holds.

[KamilS]

T17 OOB (Soviet)


There are 11 encircled units - approx 75-90k.



During the course of blizzard Red Army strength would have been very high, problems caused by destruction of industry and looses of manpower centres would have started to occur during the spring of '42.

[KamilS]

Overall


Turn 1 - disaster. For several following turns I was not able to recreate cohesive defensive positions. I could not cope with mobility of German motorised units.

Turn 6 - Michael crossed Ugra river on 6th turn. He could have finished me then, fortunately next turn he exposed himself to my counter-attacks. Further advance has taken him away from capital what was key to my survival.


Turn 11 - Leningrad is lost. Withdrawn troops vital for stabilising Moscow defences.


Turn 14 - Michael start direct assault on Moscow, but his forces are inadequate now.




I believe game would end up either in major or minor German victory.

My opponent bested me, but I feel, that from turn 2 onwards I did quite all right and recovered a bit from initial disaster.

[Flaviusx]

Kamil, if you railed out all of South Front on turn 2, could the Romanian cheese be neutered?

[KamilS]

Flaviusx

Kamil, if you railed out all of South Front on turn 2, could the Romanian cheese be neutered?

I wouldn't be able to. It is loose loose situation in the south.


If I didn't commit so many troops to suicide mission of extracting South West front Michael would have been able to pocket non-active units of Southern front without interference.

If I did run away straight away I would loose less units than I did, but still casualties would be higher than standard - few more units west of Zhitomir plus non-activated formations in the far south.

[Michael T]

There has been some unexpected relief in my situation and I may just be able to keep playing at a much reduced turn rate. Kamil would you be willing to try this?