Olorin (J) vs NY59Giants (A)

[Olorin]

Deleted

[JocMeister]

Yeah, motivation have a tendency to take a nose dive from time to time! Usually when bad stuff happens! [:)] I´m sure he will bounce back eventually. He has still only gotten a fragment of the allied toys to play with!

While losing a few divs is certainly distressing I doubt its a killer for the allied side. [:)]

[Olorin]

It's not a killer, but it certainly delays things, no? I'm not an AFB, so I don't know how long it will take to reconstitute the lost divisions. I suspect the tank units will take the longest to rebuild (if destroyed), followed by the marines. How long exactly, even the wisest JFB cannot tell.
6 months perhaps?

[obvert]

Great move, well played and fantastic finish on the destruction of ALL of those units. The Southwest Pacific HQ as well? Wow. [&o]

Dos this mean MacArthur isn't going to make it back to the PI? [:D]

Regardless this makes the Central Pacific and the North the main targets now. How are you doing there?

Your Burma plan sounds interesting, but without a real knowledge of the dispositions, maps and air supremacy there I can't really comment. If I were in the Allied position I would prep everything I have for the Marianas and Carolines plus Marcus now. Then the Bonins and the Ryukyus and forget about anything below New Guinea. Let you have the rest of OZ too.

So how are your defensive preparations up in the mid-Pacific?

[Olorin]

Obvert, General McArthur will definitely WON'T make it back to the PI. He is well fed, he must strong enough to sign the surrender documents of his SW Pac HQ. [:D]

Interesting questions and I concur that the Pacific is now the main threat in the mid and long term. Michael asked for a few days of rest to recover from this debacle. This is not good, he will start analysing the situation andd will undoubtedly come up with a good plan. I think he will abandon his previous, conservative (imho) advance and begin thinking about making major leaps forward, which means the Marianas, the Kurilles and perhaps the Andamans as well. However, with the eventual loss of 6+ divisions and the commitment of another 3 in the New Hebrides, he will be hard pressed to find enough good units for another invasion. I may be wrong, but I think he needs to do major redeployments, start prepping for new targets and laying the logistical ground, in order to be able to invade so deep. All this will take at least TWO months, maybe more.

In any case, here is a brief report on my Pacific defenses:
Carolines: Very well defended, at least as much as stacking limits allow. 1250 AV between Truk, Ponape, Kusaie. The atolls (Wake, Eniwetok, Marcus) are all maxed, but will fall if Michael is serious about taking them.

Marianas: 520 AV. I 've stripped most of my Pacific strategic reserves to reinforce Esperance. I have good LBA coverage and the KB will soon be stationed here.

Bonins: Only 70 AV at Chichi-jima, behind lvl 4 forts. I will reinforce with engineers immediately to start building them up. By the end of '43, they will be strong enough to prevent an easy capture, but no more.

Kurilles: By '43 standards, they look OKish, but I 'll soon have to start thinking about reinforcing them as well. There are 950 AV at the front with a full division in reserve at Wakkanai. Every island has at least a naval guard behind lvl 3 forts. My 3 major bases in the region are Paramushiro, Shimushiri and Etorofu.

Meanwhile, Burma is a more pressing concern. His army commitment is just huge, over 6500 AV by my last count (which was 4-5 months ago) against 4300 of mine (a large portion of which are Thai militia). He reinforced further since then, but the exact strength of the reinforcements will remain unknown, until he moves forward in strength. I'm scared. No defensive line looks strong enough to contain this force. The Mulmein-Chiang Mai line is the most promising, but even that will be eventually broken...and then...it becomes a simple matter of walking to Bangkok, Singapore, Saigon and even Hong Kong. So, by my reckoning, a huge army investment will be required eventually anyway. It's better to commit in '43 offensively, rather than trying to contain the enemy in '44. This is just a theoretical intent at the moment, nothing concrete.

Here is a map of Burma. The info on enemy dispositions is somewhat outdated. Burma can be divided in three parts. (1) The coastal area (Ramree/Akyab), (2) the central plains (III Indian Corps, Shwebo/Mandalay/Magwe) and (3) the jungle (Burma Corps, Lashio/Taung Gyi). The enemy has 1300, 3000+ and 2300 AV respectively. I'm in the middle of a complete disengagement from the central plains.

[obvert]

Yeah, if he did know what you had in the marinas you'd be in trouble! [:)]

Really, Burma is a place you can hold him for a while, and that good terrain should do it for you. Sending 6k AV there to bash the Allied advance would for me depend on the state of your air forces. The 4E and 2E should be able to hurt you there if he employs them en masse.

His depression can easily turn to a kind of reckless abandon in which he'll take chances and move with a speed you haven't seen yet. If he has sigint on your displacements, then you could see more than you bargain for sooner than you'd like. If he does have a bunch of US units you can wipe out in OZ, do it by al means, but make sure the deep threats are covered.

[Olorin]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yeah, if he did know what you had in the marinas you'd be in trouble! [:)]

Imho, Japan has to risk something in order to gain something else. I don't see how I could defend everything, while maintaining an effective strategic reserve. At the moment, my weaknesses are the Marianas, the Andamans and the eastern DEI. I 'll soon have the PPs to buy out a division from China and send it to the Marianas. Also, I'll leave Western Australia almost entirely empty. Some of that AV will go to the Pacific. A substantial part of the IJA is in a perpetual state of redeployment, which hopefully floods the Allied SigInt with conflicting reports. [:)]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Really, Burma is a place you can hold him for a while, and that good terrain should do it for you. Sending 6k AV there to bash the Allied advance would for me depend on the state of your air forces. The 4E and 2E should be able to hurt you there if he employs them en masse.

I hope you are right about the terrain. We currently have air parity, which means he can bomb my troops and I can bomb his.

ORIGINAL: obvert
His depression can easily turn to a kind of reckless abandon in which he'll take chances and move with a speed you haven't seen yet.

I can see what you mean! If that happens I'll be in trouble.

At any rate, Michael just sent a turn, so it looks like the war is on again!

[Olorin]

Sep 2-4, 1943

Western Oz:
- 1st Tank Div entered the hex north of Esperance on the 3rd, but failed to shock attack (I messed the orders somehow). It will do so tomorrow.
- 2nd Tank Div entered the same hex today and it's put in reserve mode.
- All the infantry divs, except the 6th Guards, are marching north also. The amphibious brigade will remain at Esperance. The 6th Guards will engage the 2nd Marine Div, which is currently cut off between Albany and Esperance.
- Guards Tank Division is 3 hexes NW of Esperance and it looks like it wil be the first unit to reach the railroad.
- The 14th Army in and around Kalgoorlie continues to bombard the retreating 4 allied divs. No enemy units has managed to move to the east yet.
- One tank brigade and one tank regiment moved into Kalgoorlie and will try to close the ring from the north.
- My LBA continues to attack ground troops. Enemy flak is still lethal, no matter the altitude. This will end when the rail connection to Port Augusta is cut.

Burma:
The withdrawal from Mandalay/Magwe went as expected. The only units that remain behind are the ones that retreated from the recent attack northeast of Ramree island. They were bombed en mass by enemy bombers and one tank regiment is completely destroyed, an infantry regiment about to be destroyed and an infantry brigade in a terrible state (but will make it south).

SE Fleet:
The recent capture of Esperance had consequences here too. Michael's naval search seized, as did the PT raids and sweeps in Horn Island. A resupply TF delivered 14k tons of supply, bringing the total to 18.5k tons.

The Allied carriers remain in theater.

[MrBlizzard]

ORIGINAL: Olorin

I WAS planning to leave Australia virtually defenseless after this battle. A division or two would still be required to delay a possible second Allied landing here. The plan WAS to take 6000 AV from Australia and redeploy them to Burma, which together with the AV already present there (4000 AV), would give me 10.000 AV available for an offensive operation. The current Burma Area Army would retreat back to Rangoon and Mulmein, creating two strong points, the former being much stronger, which would necessitate the splitting of the Allied army in two. I would then introduce the 6000 from Australia and crush the two allied Armies piece meal.

That sounds like a very good plan! you don't have to prepare for a strange target 'cause you're already in Burma so your opponent won't probably have any intelligence about this operation and that's good for achieving surprise; putting myself in your shoes I thought I had counter-invaded in India but your plan actually is simpler and much more effective.
I'm curious to see if you can manage to bag him twice...[8|]

[Olorin]

Mr Blizzard,
I agree, the operation is not too risky, because it doesn't require an amphibious landing and I have air parity and control of the Andaman Sea.
On the other hand, the AV numbers I quoted above are a bit inflated I'm afraid. First, from the 4.500 AV of the Burma Area Army, about 900 are Thai militia, 900 are stack in the jungle and will be defending the jungle passes into Thailand and another 200 are left behind as roadblocks and will be destroyed. Second, from the 6.500 AV in Western Australia, 200 will left there as roadblocks, 1000 will go to the DEI and 400 to the Pacific. In total, I'll have at most 6.500 AV available for an autumn offensive in Burma, not 10.000 as I previously stated. The situation could change until then though. Michael could land in the Marinanas or the DEI or the Kurilles...who knows? In that level, I will be without a large strategic reserve for months to come

[Olorin]

Sep 5, 1943

Wester Oz:
- More air attacks are launched against the soon to be trapped allied divisions, more losses to flak despite the higher altitude. The enemy units still haven't managed to move at all.
- The two tank divisions can now operate in unison. They are split in 6 brigades. One brigade attacked the two allied units north of Espernce. One of them retreated to the east, the other to the north. My 5 tank brigades in reserve mode wisely chose to pursuit the latter and I gained one hex "for free". At this pace, I will be occupying the railhexes in 3 days, assuming the enemy unit doesn't evaporate. The GTD may beat them though.

Burma:
- My new defensive line now runs from Prome to Toungoo to Taung Gyi and eastward. There are still 250 AV forwardly deployed and it remains to be seen whether I can save them or not.
- Massive allied air raids against the 4th Independent Rgt and a tank rgt west of Magwe. Both units are destroyed [:(]
- My airforce is resting and upgrading to the Ki-44-IIc. Bad timing.

SE Fleet:
- The air and sea blockade of Horn Island is resumed and 1000 tons of supply are destroyed.
- Setting up a second defense line along the coastlines of New Britain and New Guinea. Manus is being developed to a major rear area base.

4th Fleet:
Guam, Ponape, Kusaie and Truk are built to the max. Truk is a level 7 fort now. I 'll built Guam to lvl 9 if I can (currently 5,7).
Within the next 3 months, substantial reinforcements will arrive (over 400 AV in the production que). The next division to be bought from Manchukuo will go to the Marianas. Another 400 AV will reinforce the Marianas when operations in Western Oz come to an end.

[Olorin]

Sep 6-12, 1943

Western Oz:
2 of the 3 tank divisions destroyed the 30th AusBde and rapidly advanced northward, entered Kalgoorlie and the hex directly west of it and cut off 4 allied divisions (1st Mar, 32nd Inf, 4th & 6th Aus). A tank regiment occupied the railway hex directly SE of Kalgoorlie and managed to hold it against 300 enemy AFVs, with the help of massed bomber raids. Americal Div still controls one hexside and 1st MarDiv is still trying to make its way east, which won't work because 1st Tank Div and 6th Guards will block the way and surround it soon.
2 infantry divisions are marching north and will enter Kalgoorlie in 12 days. Another infantry div will enter it in two days, because it remained at Esperance on strat mode. In hindsight, it would have been much faster if all infantry divs did the same.

The following battle is occurring in the hex SE of Kalgoorlie:

Ground combat at 57,148 (near Kalgoorlie), on Sep 11
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 1260 troops, 0 guns, 304 vehicles, Assault Value = 127
Defending force 384 troops, 0 guns, 71 vehicles, Assault Value = 40
Allied adjusted assault: 18
Japanese adjusted defense: 16
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 15 (2 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2/7th Armoured Regiment
2/6th Armoured Regiment
2/9th Armoured Regiment

Defending units:
3rd Tank Regiment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 57,148 (near Kalgoorlie), on Sep 12
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 942 troops, 0 guns, 297 vehicles, Assault Value = 80
Defending force 5298 troops, 72 guns, 341 vehicles, Assault Value = 268
Allied adjusted assault: 0
Japanese adjusted defense: 297
Allied assault odds: 1 to 99

Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 64 (40 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2/7th Armoured Regiment
2/6th Armoured Regiment
2/9th Armoured Regiment

Defending units:
2nd Tank/B Division
3rd Tank Regiment
2nd Tank/C Division

I'll shock attack tomorrow, wipe out the enemy tanks and then enter Kalgoorlie.

Ground combat at Kalgoorlie (56,147)
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 27663 troops, 260 guns, 147 vehicles, Assault Value = 1118
Defending force 33324 troops, 630 guns, 434 vehicles, Assault Value = 830

Japanese ground losses:
88 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
59 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 9 (5 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Assaulting units:
21st Ind Engineer Regiment
7th Ind.Tank Brigade
48th Division
18th Division
3rd Ind Engineer Regiment
Guards Tank/C Division
8th JAAF AF Bn
14th Army
45th Field AA Battalion
21st Ind.AA Gun Co
25th JNAF AF Unit
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
14th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
6th Australian Division
34th Cmbt Engineer Regiment
32nd Infantry Division
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
168th Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Medium Regiment
181st Field Artillery Battalion
II Australian Corps
1st Medium Regiment
134th Field Artillery Battalion
70th Coast AA Regiment
2nd RAA Jungle Regiment
1st RAA Jungle Regiment

In 4-5 days, I will have an additional 800 AV in the base. Until then, I hope artillery bombardments and intense air attacks will deplete enemy supply.

Burma:
The British-Indian-Chinese army is currently advancing to my next defensive line, Toungoo-Prome. I'm launching hit and run ground attacks to slow the enemy down. Forts are at level 3 in both bases. Not enough, but I plan to fall back to Rangoon-Mulmein-Chiang Mai, once significant pressure is applied. The 15th Army is still trying to extricate itself from Taung Gyi and environs. An engineering unit and an artillery unit were left behind in the jungle, were shock attacked and lost half their equipment. Other than that, the withdrawal was uneventful.


Meanwhile, preparations have begun in order to launch the planned offensive. Airfields are expanding,grounds units are preparing, air units are upgrading (the first Frank air group among them). I secured an additional two Thai divisions that were garrisoning insignificant bases in Thailand. Another Jap infantry division is on its way to Tavoy, to act as a reserve.
Most importantly, I'm forming an ad hoc air mobile division, with all my available para units and other support units. Its composition (AV in parenthesis):

1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th Raiding Rgts (160)
1st & 3rd Yokosuka SNFL (60)
Yokosuka Assault SNFL (90)
26th Ind.Mixed Bde (160)
20th Ind. Engr Rgt (9)
13rd JAAF AF Coy (3)
20th Ind.Mtn Gun Bn
2nd Mortar Bn

In total, 480 AV, of which 310 can be air dropped. If my calculations are correct, it will need 80% of my air transport force to be dropped in a single turn.

SE Fleet:
The enemy is about to land at Kirakira and/or Guadalcanal! Fortunately, most army units were extricated from Tulagi and Lunga.
I ordered a fast cruiser TF and 6 subs to intercept the landings, but my fighters at Tulagi are butchered by massed sweeps and won't be able to contribute. Rabaul is hit by 4EBs. I pulled back most fighter groups. In the meantime, Efate was lost and I concentrated every unit in New Caledonia at Koumac (SNFL and base forces, worth some 130 AV, with 7k tons of supplies). 33 Emilies are transporting them to Lunga.

[veji1]

what are the different units on the road east of Esperance and Kalgoorlie ? Baggable with your extra mobility or not ? IN the end how many men are you expecting to bag, close to 150K ?

[Olorin]

I've bagged 40.000 already and will bag another 100.000.
What units are you referring to? There is one hex east of Kalgoorlie controlled by the Allies, but I can't see any units yet.

[veji1]

O sh** I got mixed up between your thread and your opponent's. Sorry, my mistake, you should probably tel NYgiants that I said something dumb that means you now know there are some units east of Esperance and Kalgoorlie.

My bad, I really apologize for the mistake.

[Olorin]

Sorry...again for the lack of updates. I realise it's hard to maintain readership this way. I hope I'll have more time to update this AAR after summer is over. Regarding the minor OpSec breach... it seems it's of no real consequence. In any case I will try to pretend that this information never reached me..

So...it's October 11th and I will try to cover the most important events of the last month.

Western Australia:
To summarise it briefly, 5 of the 6 allied divisions are destroyed. 1st MarDiv didn't go down without a good fight. More than 300 infantry squads were disabled, while trying to subdue them. 2nd MarDiv is still active and in supply (!), on the trails between Albany and Esperance. I committed 2 tank and 2 inf divs to deal with them. The other 12 divs are on their way to Perth and from there, back to Java. I decided that this redeployment warrants the commitment of the Kido Buttai.

Burma:
The Prome-Toungo line was short lived, as I withdrew even further back , without giving a fight. A few strugglers were left behind and were destroyed as result. The line Rangoon-Pengu-Chiang Mai will do for now. The Pegu garrison will retreat to Mulmein if pressured. The decision to stay at Rangoon is final, whether my offensive actually takes place or not. 1850 AV behind level 6 forts and urban terrain will prove a tough nut to crack. I 'm quite prepared to lose them all. Giving up Rangoon without a fight is equivalent to permanently giving up control of the Andaman Sea, thereby bringing the Malayan coast, from Singapore to Mulmein, under threat of Allied invasion.

My ad-hoc air mobile division is in place (480 AV at Tavoy). Two low quality Thai divisions were gathered from rear areas and are now defending the jungles between Mulmein and Chiang Mai. 38th Div was pulled out of Port Blair (along with a tank regiment) and is now my reserve for the entire SW Fleet theater. Port Blair and the rest of the Andaman island chain is now defended by two inf regiments, recently redeployed from China.

SE Fleet:
Remember when I said that I will try to contest the allied landings at Kirakira with 6 subs, 4 fast cruisers and 6 DDs? Well, all that survived was 3 subs! An entire TF was lost in a single night. Its commitment under unfavorable terms was ill-advised to begin with -and counter to my general defensive strategy- but I give credit to Michael for getting his TF composition, orders and commander selection just right. My TF was chased all the way back to Tulagi. None survived to tell the story.

The Allies now control the 3 southernmost islands in the Solomons and are landing at Thousands Isl bay, circumventing Guadalcanal. Fortunately, I evacuated almost every unit by air.

Horn Island: supply is critically low. The airfield is closed and my air transports were busy evacuating Guadalcanal. A series of night engagements between light cruisers and destroyers were inconclusive.

4th Fleet:
The Marianas are reinforced with 550 AV, bringing the total to 1100. In addition, 4th Div will be redeployed from the Northeast Area Fleet to Guam.

[Olorin]

Oct 12-16, 1943

Burma:
The siege of Rangoon begins! Pegu was abandoned and the Allies now control land access to Rangoon. Intense air battles result in Rangoon's airfield almost closed (but still good enough for CAP) and the air belonging to the IJAAF 3rd Air Division, thanks to the sudden and massed introduction of Mr Frank.
On the ground the Allies have 2750 AV in Rangoon and 2900 in Pegu. What will they do? I hope they go for Mulmein, which is defended by 1040 AV. Not enough to hold against a serious attack, but I can bring another 550 AV by sea. Meanwhile, 4 divisions have just left Perth heading for Singapore. More will follow soon.

On the ground:

Ground combat at Rangoon (54,53)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 76202 troops, 1179 guns, 1282 vehicles, Assault Value = 2790
Defending force 77443 troops, 742 guns, 790 vehicles, Assault Value = 1872

Japanese ground losses:
44 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
431 casualties reported
Squads: 16 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 11 (6 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (7 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Assaulting units:
XV Corps Engineer Battalion
255th Armoured Brigade
5th Chinese Corps
25th Indian Division
I Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
254th Armoured Brigade
22nd (East African) Brigade
26th Indian Division
5th Indian Division
2/9th Field Regiment
95th Heavy AA Regiment
2/11th Field Regiment
2/1st Med Regiment
14th Indian Light AA Regiment
III Indian Corps
21st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
IV Indian Corps
3rd West African AA Regiment

Defending units:
3rd Tank Division
35th Division
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
14th Division
13th Division
39th Ind Engineer Regiment
3rd Air Division
22nd Field AA Machinecannon Company
27th Fld AA Machinecannon Company
5th Field Construction Battalion
51st JNAF AF Unit
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
3rd Air Defense AA Regiment
211th Ship Eng Coy
3rd Ind.AA Gun Co
111th Ship Eng Coy
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
80th JAAF AF Bn
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
1st Machine Cannon AA Battalion
311th Ship Eng Coy
67th JAAF AF Bn
13th Ind.AA Gun Co
Burma Area Army
3rd JAAF AF Bn
7th Field Construction Battalion
306th Ship Eng Coy
56th Field AA Battalion
7th JAAF Base Force
15th JAAF AF Bn
52nd JNAF AF Unit
6th RF Gun Battalion
1st Provisional Base Force
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Pegu (55,53)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 73110 troops, 824 guns, 1075 vehicles, Assault Value = 2916
Defending force 979 troops, 8 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 10
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2
Allied adjusted assault: 1619
Japanese adjusted defense: 1
Allied assault odds: 1619 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Pegu !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1224 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 51 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (8 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (7 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
26 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
Gardner's Horse Regiment
20th Indian Division
39th Indian Division
50th Tank Brigade
16th Light Cavalry Regiment
2nd British Division
17th Indian Division
150th RAC Regiment
268th Motorised Brigade
6th Chinese Corps
X' Force
23rd AA Bde
XXXIII Indian Corps
16th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
85th British AT Gun Regiment
17th Indian Light AA Regiment
3rd (Special Force) Division

Defending units:
40th JAAF AF Bn

The 3-day air battle:

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 32 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 42
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 24

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 24
P-51A Mustang x 25
F6F-3 Hellcat x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 3 destroyed
P-51A Mustang: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 66 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 22
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 8

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 13
P-38H Lightning x 50

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 11
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 3

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 29
P-38H Lightning x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 1 destroyed

The first day belongs to the Allies, but fortunately no bombers showed up. 2nd day:

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 18 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 57
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 6

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 30
P-38H Lightning x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 3 destroyed
P-38H Lightning: 3 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 46 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 37
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 3

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 22
P-40N1 Warhawk x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 6 destroyed
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 4 destroyed
P-40N1 Warhawk: 1 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 14
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 1

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 6
Liberator II x 27
B-24D1 Liberator x 51

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed, 7 damaged
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 damaged
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
Liberator II: 1 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 6 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 32
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 54

5 more raids of 9 Liberators each do additional damage to the airfield. At this point, I decided to throw Mr Frank into the meatgrinder, in order to avoid losing the airfield. In addition, 90 Georges rebase to Rangoon, which is still good enough for CAP in the 3rd day:

Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 73
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 18
Ki-84a Frank x 69

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 15
P-40N1 Warhawk x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40N1 Warhawk: 3 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 72
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 16
Ki-84a Frank x 66

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 16
P-38H Lightning x 50
P-51A Mustang x 3
F6F-3 Hellcat x 34

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 3 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 5 destroyed
P-38H Lightning: 3 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 54
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 7
Ki-84a Frank x 60

Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 3
Blenheim VD x 3
Hurricane IIc Trop x 13
B-25C Mitchell x 9
B-25G Mitchell x 24
P-40N5 Warhawk x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 3 damaged
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 7 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim VD: 1 damaged
Hurricane IIc Trop: 5 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak
P-40N5 Warhawk: 9 destroyed

Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 48
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 3
Ki-84a Frank x 50

Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 3
Blenheim VD x 11
Liberator II x 29
Wellington Ic x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 damaged
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 2 destroyed
Blenheim VD: 5 destroyed, 2 damaged
Liberator II: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
Liberator II: 1 destroyed by flak
Wellington Ic: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 24
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 27

Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 6 destroyed
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 21
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 18

Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 3 destroyed, 1 damaged
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 18
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 10

Allied aircraft
Wellington Ic x 11
B-24D1 Liberator x 12

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington Ic: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 17
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-84a Frank x 6

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 24
B-25G Mitchell x 12
P-40N5 Warhawk x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 10 damaged
B-25G Mitchell: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Airbase hits 5
Runway hits 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid detected at 76 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 4
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 1
Ki-84a Frank x 2

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 2 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 11 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 1 destroyed by flak

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 4

At this point my CAP was exhausted and 46 Liberators and 12 Mitchels arrive in 6 separate groups to further damage the airfield, which is finally closed. In terms of losses, I lost 130 aircraft vs 200 allied (rough estimates) in all 3 days. On Oct 16th, no allied planes flew, which is a sign that 3rd IJAAF Division won this round. The allied airforce in this theater will need resting before its next attack. Its bomber force is seriously damaged. Rangoon is operational and I have air superiority over Rangoon and control of the Andaman Sea, temporarily at least.

SE Fleet:
The struggle to keep Horn Island supplied continues. 1500 tons of supplies are barely enough. More cruisers and destroyers are needed. The Allied bombers keep the airfield fully closed.
In the Solomons, Guadalcanal is isolated, but its garrison evacuated, except a light tank company. Light air battles over Shortlands, with acceptable results for Japan.

West Australia:
Only a matter of time before 2nd Marine Div surrenders. It's out of supplies, but still causes enough squad disablements to my divisions.

Redeployments: 4 divisions have left Perth, 6 more to follow shortly.

[obvert]

You'll hold Rangoon for a good while unless he has a lot of troops to add in. He needs roughly 5k AV to get it I'd say. You've got the heavy arty which as shown in the one attack listed will do wonders in a siege. He won't be able to bombard without seriously whittling away his own forces.

In the air he doesn't have enough bombers based on those reports, and if he's still sending P-40s and hurries, then you will win out. He needs to be sweeping with Corsairs and P-47s.

[Olorin]

The good thing about the air battle is that weather is just awful. Thunderstorms prevented flying for three days, which allowed Rangoon airfield to be repaired. I keep praying for more bad weather.

[obvert]

Any updates?