The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[crsutton]

Good on ya, Canoe. This is classic Allied play. It is not so much an issue of where but the key to victory in this or any campaign is to take the initiative away from the Japanese player as soon as possible. Canoerebel could have just as easily landed at Lunga, Milne Bay, or the Southern DEI (although Sumatra is the best place of all). The point is that John is forced to react and this curtails most all of Japan,s offensive options elsewhere. Good Japanese play requires the Japanese player to hold the initiative as long as possible and John has lost it in 11/42. I doubt he will get it back.

The worst case scenario is that John crushes CR totally at sea and wins a long and protracted campaign to take back Sumatra. (and this, I think, is highly unlikely) This would hurt the Allied cause but we are talking about months at best. That brings the game well into 1943 where the Allies can replace the losses. And if Japan has not advanced any further in any other theaters, then it is a strategic win for the Allied player as he will have solid positions for jumping off on his own counter-offensives.

Most likely is that this will be a long attrition battle with one side or the other eventually getting the upper hand. This sort of battle favors the Allies almost every time.

You JFBs just can't let this sort of thing happen in 1942.

The concept in war is a simple as can be. In the war as well as on a chessboard whomever hold the initiative holds the key. Right now, CR hold the initiative. It is his game to lose.

[JohnDillworth]

Oil: I don't think the threats (and isolation) of Magwe and Medan will have any short term consequences from an oil delivery standpoint, but the potential longterm impact might be two important considerations in John's overall mindset. IE, those are two more reasons for John to construe all of this as the "ultimate crisis" requiring a "no holds barred" attack. I mean, can he afford to keep his carriers back? I don't think so. I think he has to gather the full might of his fleet and attack.

How far will your naval search reach if you grab Medan? Combine that with soon to be better working USN torpedoes and those Gatos rolling off he production line and things get a tad more interesting

[JohnDillworth]

Most likely is that this will be a long attrition battle with one side or the other eventually getting the upper hand. This sort of battle favors the Allies almost every time.

One of the likely related impacts is that supply will be flowing to China much sooner than it would have been had this campaign not been launched. The long term implication for the IJA are not good

[paullus99]

If I remember correctly, CR has kept the Chinese Army nearly intact (and experienced)- which spells bad news if it can also be supplied....if John is coming into the IO with his carriers & aiming for the Western Islands, it has to be part of a strategy to attempt to permanently interdict the supply lines to Sabang.

Nothing else makes sense at this point - since those islands can be used as Nettie bases...if CR can hold them & deny John any good places to interdict...then it is all over but the blood.

[JohnDillworth]

permanently interdict the supply lines to Sabang

I just don't think this is possible. The KB can't stay on station forever and any Nettie bases will be subject to suppression and clouser from nearby airfields. Not so sure about range but John might have to bring in an Air HQ to put torps on the Netties and bring in some engineers to build these fields up. suppress the airfields for a turn and bring in the BB's to flatten whatever is there. Maybe this airfield tit for tat goes both ways for a while but these airfields can not stop supply by themselves. I think these islands are a good strategy on Johns part. They can be a PITA, but it won't shut the door. Great seach plane base though

[Canoerebel]

Small things. Whenver there's a vortex - a concentration of force - some openings will generally occur elsewhere. These are often small things, but a few examples will suffice:

1. On D-Day, figuring John's full attention would be drawn to Sabang, BB Ramilles - badly damaged at the opening of the First Battle of Assam back in September - began making its way to refuge. She's now south of Addu Atoll and appears set to clear the map and make Capetown. There are currently four other RN BBs repairing there. Warpsite, which will be ready for action in a month, will be the first available.

2. With SoPac rendered insignficiant (or considerably less significant), the Allies have started cutting the corner by sending TFs on a more direct route - near Pago Pago and Fiji rather than via Tahiti.

3. Whereas Assam received 100% attention and protection as recently as November 9, now those levels are reduced to 20% fighters, 95% bombers, 5% seapower, and 95% ground forces. The Allies intend to push very hard in Burma, but doing so will require far fewer fighters and ships as long as John is focused on Sumatra and Malaysia.

[Canoerebel]

The current "lay of the land."

[pws1225]

"I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in awhile ... not tellin' where they are"

Not even in some cryptic math?

[Knucles2]

"I haven't mentioned the Allied carriers in awhile ... not tellin' where they are"

He's doing it again....isn't he...

[Canoerebel]

I would only be doing it again if I was posting things like this:

NoPac: The Allied carriers have crept to within 20 hexes of Tokyo unobserved. A devastating port attack is two days away if John doesn't have patrols out.

257/204/90/9/13

[Cribtop]

Pilot B. Affleck in command, eh? [;)]

[Grollub]

That pilot is flying a Stearman75 on recon flights out of Nome, Alaska.

ETA; (For his crimes against cinemanity)

[Knucles2]

I should never read CR's Crypticisms(?) while the opening theme from Game of Thrones is playing in my headphones...

I hope SOMEONE is trying to crunch those numbers...

[Encircled]

What to know where his carriers are?

That big yellow rectangle on the map is a massive clue

[CowboyRonin]

The one with only one little green dot in it?

[Schlemiel]

Unless the yellow square is covering the dot, it's not on map either (transitioning in, I'd guess, which is far too soon to be the carriers which would have had to reach Capetown and then the Canal, unless my dates escape me). While I could imagine moving the carriers out of theater entirely this early, I'd personally look at the alignment of the picket tfs to gauge my guess. I think Canoe won't put the carriers in harms way at the start and use their threat in being, but I also imagine with his playstyle that they are nearby (less than a week out, I mean) in case they are needed or opportunities arise. That said, putting them at risk of an alpha strike before the KB appears seems foolhardy to me, so I could see either a flanking maneuver with one of those two dots by the islands that might have secondary pickets in front of them, or possibly the dot down by Australia to shepherd a new movement in nw Oz while the vortex is sucked toward Sumatra. Could we see some kind of move on Timor? I have to imagine that Dili is relatively lightly held at the moment, and with enough supply that would be very hard to dislodge, but present a new crisis on the other flank of the DEI.

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I would only be doing it again if I was posting things like this:

NoPac: The Allied carriers have crept to within 20 hexes of Tokyo unobserved. A devastating port attack is two days away if John doesn't have patrols out.

257/204/90/9/13

Obviously, they are hidden by the big text box strategically placed just south of the Home Islands!

257 Fighters, 204 Bombers, 90 Torpedo planes, will move 9 hexes today, 13 hexes remaining.

[Canoerebel]

11/23/42 - D+13, Operation Des Wallace

On the Ground: Part of a USA RCT lands by fast transport at Nias. This is the second island from the north, has J/R terrain (x3 multiplier) and now has 80 AV, including a Marine CD unit with eight 155mm guns. Advance tank unit is one hex from Medan and will attack the remnants of an Imperial Guards detachment; the big infantry units will reach this hex in two days and should reach Medan in four days. Over on Malaya, advance tank unit will attack an RTA unit in the jungle hex between Alor Star and Singora. The garrison at Singora is getting alot of attention and isn't real strong, but does have good terrain and I don't think John has anything beyond weak RTA units nearby right now. Sibolga seems to be drawing some supply from Sabang "through the jungle." If so, that's a huge advantage. Some troops are advancing out of Sibolga to create a roadblock and to pose a bit of a threat to Tandjoen. Advance elements of the reinforcing Indian division begin landing at Sabang tonight.

On the Seas: Lots of enemy subs all around Sabang, Medan and Alor Star now. BB Fuso TF seems to be coming north again. Lots of IJ interaction with Allied mines and subs in the Malacca Straits, lending additional credence, to my way of thinking, that John will not send carriers into the straits near term. Allied ships should be bombarding VP, Georgetown and Medan tonight. I'm a bit short of fuel at Sabang at present; more is coming in.

In the Air: Pretty quiet today. Sabang airfield goes to 5.34. Roughly five days to reach level 6. Supply limit is now at 110k, so another step increase should take it up to 135k to 140k.

Enemy Ships: No sign of the KB. No sign of major enemy combattants other than the Fuso TF. I think the Nagato/Ise TF is likely operating in the Singers area (it bombarded Singora a few days back).

Fireworks? John is usually prone to celebrating Independence Day in a flashy way. So I've been keeping that in mind - still lots of exposed ships in the lower reaches of the Sabang to Colombo pipeline, but not near as many as were there a few days back.

[Schlemiel]

I have been easily able to supply even Palembang from Sabang against the ai. Supply will flow south just fine toward bases, in my experience.

[Canoerebel]

A word (and a question) about Japanese BBs:

Known Destroyed: Hyuga and Yamashiro
Known Badly Damaged and at Port Blair: Mutsu
Recently Bombarded Singora (South China Sea): Nagato and Ise
Recently Sighted near Enganno: Fuso

Then this report today:

ASW attack near Batavia at 45,98

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
DD Hayashio

Allied Ships
SS Spearfish

Any guesses as to what this might be?