The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

Kirishima, Hiei, Kongo and Haruna are the only truly fast [30 kt.] BBs in Japan's lineup. Therefore they are ideal as escorts for KB [less Kaga, Hiyo and Junyo which are slower CVs].

Yamato and Musashi make a respectable 27 knots, but I suspect John will want to have their big guns out there breaking stuff rather than protecting CVs.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A word (and a question) about Japanese BBs:

Known Destroyed: Hyuga and Yamashiro
Known Badly Damaged and at Port Blair: Mutsu
Recently Bombarded Singora (South China Sea): Nagato and Ise
Recently Sighted near Enganno: Fuso

Then this report today:

ASW attack near Batavia at 45,98

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
DD Hayashio

Allied Ships
SS Spearfish

Any guesses as to what this might be?

Ummm....BB Kirishima and DD Hayashio? [&:]

[Encircled]

Does a submarine attack automatically detect all the ships in a TF?

[Houtje]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Does a submarine attack automatically detect all the ships in a TF?

I don't think so (and it was an ASW attack, not a sub attack). Apart from that, IIRC, I do not think the combat report always give the correct names of the ships involved, due to FOW.

[Canoerebel]

Spearfish did fire a 4-spread shot at Kirishima, though all missed.

My first thought on seeing Kirishima was "KB." That ship and Hiei are the two I most commonly associate with Japanese carrier TFs. However, I do recall that John detached both from KB to bombard the Gilberts back during the summer months. So, I can't be positive, though at this point (D+14), the KB should be within striking distance.

[Canoerebel]

11/24/42 - D+14, Operation Des Wallace

Two weeks into this operation, the enemy still hasn't arrive in full strength, though his air power is noticeably stronger.

Enemy Carriers: Don't know where the KB is, though I'm assuming very close now. If Kirishima is part of KB, then the carriers are near the Sunda Straits. Up in the Andaman Sea, patrols report a CV hugging the coast near Victoria Point. This is either bait or John is taking a suicidal risk, hoping to "run the guantlet" at top speeds to get this carrier down through the Malacca Straits. I'd previously reported another sighting of carriers. John Dillworth speculated they might be "bait." About that same time, John had posted an AAR comment titled "Spotted." At the time, I wondered if he wasn't trying to create a small deception that his carriers had been "spotted," as though he was disappointed when he was actually trying to draw mine into the Andaman Sea. That's quite possible.

Allied Ground Campaign: Most of 20th Indian Div. has arrived at Sabang, with the rest just one hex away. Major decision to make: Send this unit to Alor Star for the Malaya campaign, feed her into the campaign for Medan and Tandjoen, or parcel her out as garrisons to protect the important islands? All three of those are desirable. One is highly aggressive, one is modestly aggressive and one is defensive. The advance Allied units should reach Medan tomorrow or the day after, after first pushing aside a detachment of Imperial Guards in the adjacent hex. Medan remains lightly defended. John is working on Tandjoen, though it's still vulnerable - though it would be at least seven to ten days before the Allies could arrive there. Alot will happen before then. Sabang airfield to 5.49.

Allies at Sea: Another strong bombardment of Georgetown destroys 28 aircraft, mainly Tojos. This base isn't on a rail line, so John wasn't able to transfer out his damaged aircraft. Vals and Kates are flying in big numbers (though still without torps) from the southern end of Sumatra and Malaya. Today they claimed an AM and a DD, plus did light damage to BB Revenge, which for some reason has taken three nights to set up a bombardment run to Medan - all of seven hexes. I'm way short on DDs at the front now - I have perhaps a dozen in the yards at Colombo, most lightly damaged. Just the attrition involved in a major campaign in which the two sides are in close proximity.

Japanese Intentions: Still unclear from where I'm sitting. My best guess is that John will position the KB west of Sabang in order to cover some big landings at the Sumatran islands plus perhaps Sibolga. At the same time he's likely to feed a large army into the Malay Peninsula to handle the situation at Alor Star and Singora. He probably will fight hard (and ought to) to reinforce and keep Tandjoen. I doubt he thinks he has the time or troops to successfully defend Medan. He's withrawing in Burma, but it isn't yet clear whether he will try to hold the main line from Rangoon up to Schewbo - I think so. I have no idea what his fuel and supply situations are. I need an OSS office to evaluate. For instance, if his stockpiles were relatively low in this theater before the operation, just how long can he support an Air HQ unit and major operations in Port Blair?

[JohnDillworth]

just how long can he support an Air HQ unit and major operations in Port Blair?

Any Chance of a BB bombardment here?

[Canoerebel]

Not really. That's a Netty nest and Allied bombardment TFs seem to loiter in setting up their missions, so that they remain within easy torp range for a turn or two or three. The only way I could hazard such a mission would be to use my carriers to cover, and that aint gonna happen until the main mission - protecting Sabang and the LOC - is accomplished. Of necessity, Port Blair shall remain an irritant for the time being.

[Canoerebel]

The Coming Battle

I think John will orchestrate the coming battle similar to the opening of the First Battle of Assam: Overwhelm Allied CAP at Sabang with multiple major Tojo sweeps followed by carrier air strikes vs. shipping at the port. This strategy nearly worked for him the first time, and he's probably fairly confident it will the second time given the big bump in numbers with the KB present.

The Allied plan:
1. The first strike is likely intended to overwhelm. If it fails or is effectively countered, John may lose so many aircraft that the battle is effectively decided. Thus, the Allies will maximize fighter cover at Sabang. This currently conists of nearly 250 fighters - 75 P-40K, roughly 20 P-40E, 15 P-39G, a few Buffaloes, and the rest F4Fs. Given a few days, I'll have another P-40K squadron.
2. Capital ships at Sabang will have to absorb heavy blows. I'm likely to lose quite a few. But mission one is to prevent major bombardments that would diminish CAP.
3. The Allies currently have three AA units at Sabang with two more enroute.
4. If necessary, the Allies can draw on carrier air for reinforcements, but the preferred plan is to seriously attrit enemy carrier air to then allow a carrier battle at more favorable odds.

[BBfanboy]

Singapore starts with 70 HI and 40 LI which could have been damaged during the conquest, but the Japanese could have expanded them too. They produce enough to keep at least that base in good supply, and probably most of the Malay peninsula. A major air campaign will deplete that rapidly though!

[String]

No brit fighters such as Hurrianes? They might do good with the increased armor, but then again, I haven't played for a while and don't know how they fare under recent patches.

[Canoerebel]

No way to get them there except by ship, which would be extremely dangerous given enemy subs and the proximity of enemy air and ships. Not worth it. The Americans have to handle this particular job.

[JohnDillworth]

Capital ships at Sabang will have to absorb heavy blows.

absorb or engage in heavy fighting? Are the old BB's around to fight? The young BB's?

[Canoerebel]

All the "ponies" are in the corral. IE, both the fast and slow BBs are there. By "absorbing blows," I mean the Allied fleet is prepared to take blows if enemy air makes it through the CAP. From a surface action standpoint, I'm fairly confident the Allied fleet can handle anything Japan can send. There should be big carnage on both sides.

[Cribtop]

IMHO the fact John hasn't come yet means he is "winding up" to go for the knockout blow. While this slightly increases his chances of success, I believe it significantly increases the chances that this battle will be decisive from the standpoint of IJN attrition. Like Guadalcanal and Philippine Sea rolled into one. Can't wait to watch it.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
There should be big carnage on both sides.

Yay! Carnage! [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I like carnage too, but only when it's one sided in my favor. But no matter how I work this, I can't come up with a risk-free way to shape this battle, nor do I think avoiding battle is a viable option. So, what are the advantages?

1. John will have more aicraft, what with combined LBA and carriers. He'll have far more aircraft than he had in the Battles of Assam.
2. However, he probably won't have big airfields in close proxmity as he did in Burma. Port Blair is 12 hexes; next best are Tandjoen (level two) and Singers (and adjacent fields). I think the Allies have successfully put VP and Georgetown out of commission.
3. During the Battles of Assam, there was the potential for John to bring much more seapower to bear than the Allies could muster. He didn't, but he might have. This time, there isn't the potential for such one-sided action (at least, I don't think there is).
4. The Allies get the benefit of Sabang's airfield, mines, PT boats, etc.
5. IF Japan's airfields are indeed as I've laid out here, John probably has to keep the KB fairly close to Sabang to have a shot at his air getting through CAP to hit the Allied fleet. The Allied carriers, on the other hand, probably have more flexibility - they can stick close to Sabang or maneuver for an advantageous shot.

[JohnDillworth]

IF Japan's airfields are indeed as I've laid out here, John probably has to keep the KB fairly close to Sabang to have a shot at his air getting through CAP to hit the Allied fleet. The Allied carriers, on the other hand, probably have more flexibility - they can stick close to Sabang or maneuver for an advantageous shot.

Hmmmmm, I'm not going to ask but I suspect you have moved these. you would not have gone north, you can get trapped, What's the point in keeping them in port, you might have removed them entirely, If I had to guess you moved them way south and may try to get behind the KB or make a thunder-run into the DEI. Keep it quite, I don't mind being surprised.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Keep it quire, I don't mind being surprised.

Oh, oh - you may get some strange PMs with that kind of message ...[;)]

[JohnDillworth]

Oh, oh - you may get some strange PMs with that kind of message ...

told you I couldn't spell. thanks and fixed