Speedy vs Fabertong - time to smack back the Penguin

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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Speedysteve
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30th September 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Hi all,

Back from holiday. Had a good week's walking. Only 1 wet day which is a success for The Lake District!

Malaya:

More troops are ashore at Malacca (about 2/3 of them now). Malacca was easily taken and the 1st Raiding Rgt was destroyed in it's capture wiping out 450 enemies. Engineers are commencing work on the AF's (currently level 1) and forts. Fighters should be landed and active within 2 days.

Interestingly SS Cero spotted a probable CV TF heading west past Luzon. They'll probably be on the scene within 2-3 days. By then potentially 100 x P47/P51 will be active from Malacca to bolster my CV fighters. Could be fun :-)

A small 2 x DD TF was also located off Batavia and attacked by an SBD Sqn from Oosthaven. DD Fujinami was reported heavily damaged by a bomb hit.

-----------------------

Mariana's:

The Japs continue to resist on both Tinian and Guam:

Ground combat at Tinian (108,94)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 61203 troops, 1386 guns, 1343 vehicles, Assault Value = 1894

Defending force 34036 troops, 354 guns, 262 vehicles, Assault Value = 670

Allied adjusted assault: 2188

Japanese adjusted defense: 2457

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2433 casualties reported
Squads: 43 destroyed, 93 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 33 disabled
Guns lost 43 (2 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Vehicles lost 25 (10 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
993 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 152 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 48 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 51 (2 destroyed, 49 disabled)
Vehicles lost 87 (20 destroyed, 67 disabled)


And:

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 59926 troops, 1333 guns, 1512 vehicles, Assault Value = 2051

Defending force 31108 troops, 250 guns, 228 vehicles, Assault Value = 805

Allied adjusted assault: 858

Japanese adjusted defense: 1023

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 8)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2664 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 260 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 36 disabled
Guns lost 51 (4 destroyed, 47 disabled)
Vehicles lost 38 (22 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2118 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 212 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 62 (5 destroyed, 57 disabled)
Vehicles lost 63 (3 destroyed, 60 disabled)

Tinian should capitulate within a week at this rate though.

----------------------

Submarine Warfare:

1 x dud/missed attack.

SS Cero attacked and damaged CA Nachi (from the probable CV TF) with 2 torpedoes west of Luzon.
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End of September 1944.........

Post by Speedysteve »

Hi all,

September was an active month with further invasions in CentPac (Tinian/Guam), Ternate in southern SRA and at Malacca in Malaya. The only Japanese responses, to date, to these invasions have been with airpower (which has been ineffective and not hit anything) and the damnable submarines which have been more successful (the most successful sinking CV Wasp).

Ternate and Malacca fell quickly but the Japs are stubbornly resisting on both Tinian and Guam.

The plans for October are the taking of Tinian and Guam, further invasions in southern SRA (Morotai, Talaud and Manado) and the follow up invasion in Malaya at Mersing.

The existing troops at Malacca will hold tight to build up the base and to gauge what Faber will do.

A poor month for my subs though. Much fewer sightings and less successful attacks. I'd have a guess this is due to a combination of factors (a reduction of enemy held territory and oilfields means fewer enemy convoys and this means more subs in a limited area for the ASW assets to detect and sink them).

In terms of reinforcements October will see the arrival of TBM-3's for the US and Seafire L.III's and Thud II's for the Brits. On sea CV Indefatigable, BB King George V, CL Astoria II and 8 x SS are the highlights.

-----------------------

Points:

Allies: +1,761 points
Japanese: +1,073 points


Bases:

Allies: +3 (+205 points)
Japanese: -3 (-395 points)


Planes:

Allies: +725 lost
Japanese: +969 lost


Troops:

Allies: +98 lost
Japanese: +177 lost


Ships:

Allies: +30 lost (+645 points. CV Wasp, 5 x SS, 2 by Subs, a bunch by collision and the rest by the ridiculously overpowered MTB's.)
Japanese: +72 lost (+434 points. Many of these by Allied CV air around the Mariana's, 6 x SS and the rest by subs).

-------------------------------

Sub Kills:

15 of 35 attacks were successful = 42.86% success!

Dutch Boats:

PB - 5 (1 mine)
AK - 35 (+1)
TK - 10 (-1)
CM - 6
DD - 4
TB - 1
DMS - 3 (-1)
E - 1
APD - 1
ACM - 1
AP - 1
AMC - 1

= 69 ships
-------------------------------

British Boats:

DD - 1 (1 mine)
AK - 11 (1 mine)
SC - 1
PB - 2
TK - 2
AO - 1
SS - 3 (2 mine)
DMS - 1 (1 mine) (+1)

= 22 ships

-------------------------------

Fleet Boats:

AK - 295 (-4)
SC - 25 (+5)
AP - 15
PB - 53
TK - 73 (+3)
AKE - 1
CM - 6
ACM - 2
E - 33
APD - 2
DD - 9
CL - 1 (Oi)
AO - 9
PC - 1
AMC - 1
AV - 2
AM - 1 (1 mine)
SS - 2 (+1)
DMS - 4
CVE - 1 (Chuyo)

= 535 ships
--------------------------------

S-Boats:

AK - 21 (-1)
AP - 2
CM - 1
PB - 5
DMS - 1
SC - 7
TK - 4

= 41 ships

= 667 ships = 52.31% of reported sunk ships total.

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RE: End of September 1944.........

Post by JocMeister »

Welcome back Speedy! [:)]

I still wish I did 1/10th as well as you on the sub war.
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Speedysteve
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1-4th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Hi all,

Mariana's:

Same old same old here. CV's still on station protecting the supply ships and follow on support forces still aboard transports. No Jap further Jap response here.

Tough fighting still on Guam with no reduction in forts but a gradual weakening of Jap forces on the ground.

Tinian is creaking though:

Ground combat at Tinian (108,94)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 61765 troops, 1392 guns, 1370 vehicles, Assault Value = 1809

Defending force 32651 troops, 355 guns, 255 vehicles, Assault Value = 545

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 1444

Japanese adjusted defense: 1111

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2311 casualties reported
Squads: 133 destroyed, 43 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 45 (24 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 28 (14 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1738 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 291 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 44 disabled
Guns lost 52 (4 destroyed, 48 disabled)
Vehicles lost 41 (1 destroyed, 40 disabled)

-------------------------

SRA:

An empty Morotai was taken by Cavalry Cdo troops on the 4th. Once supply is unloaded ships will head back to Ambon to load up troops for Manado.

-------------------------

Darwin:

Never been too fussed with this region but with the Jap positions in retreat everywhere I decided to push into northern Australia after building up the bases in central Aus to support greater supply flow.

Darwin has been cut off and recon indicates the main enemy unit is 20th Division. Attacks go in tomorrow with support from over 100 x B24J.

-------------------------

Sumatra:

Either the Japs became desperate at Palembang or Faber thought I had abandoned Palembang as all of the Jap forces at Palembang flung themselves over the river SW into the Allied defences. It was a calamity from their perspective:

Ground combat at Praboemoelih (48,92)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 64087 troops, 817 guns, 227 vehicles, Assault Value = 2334

Defending force 16752 troops, 277 guns, 579 vehicles, Assault Value = 533

Japanese adjusted assault: 1243

Allied adjusted defense: 850

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 4)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
10870 casualties reported
Squads: 103 destroyed, 485 disabled
Non Combat: 109 destroyed, 59 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 41 disabled
Guns lost 90 (23 destroyed, 67 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
754 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 76 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 40 (7 destroyed, 33 disabled)
Vehicles lost 84 (3 destroyed, 81 disabled)

Assaulting units:
58th Infantry Regiment
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
21st Division
3rd Tank Division
1st South Seas Det.
18th Garrison Unit
6th Guards Inf. Regiment
8th Division
36th Infantry Regiment
32nd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
34th Ind.Mixed Brigade
138th Infantry Regiment
2nd Amphibious Brigade
46th Div /1
1st Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
31st Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
69th Field AA Battalion
51st Field AA Battalion
1st Guards Field Artillery Regiment
55th Const Co
68th Field AA Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
23rd AA Regiment
2nd Area Army
1st JAAF Base Force
21th JNAF AF Unit
34th Road Const Co
28th Air Flotilla
32nd Port Unit
13th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
97th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
706th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
1st Filipino Inf Regiment
711th Tank Battalion
99th Indian Brigade
46th Construction Regiment
76th Coast AA Regiment
126th RAF Base Force
88th Medium Regiment
341 Wing

More than happy with this. Allied forces (from Djambi. 550 x AV) will be in Palembang in 2 days time and will then cut off the Jap forces for annihilation.

----------------------

Malaya:

Strangely enough no Jap response here. I wonder if the economic conditions are kicking in now. The final equipment is being unloaded at Malacca. Can't wait for it to be off and then we'll head back to pick up the next phase of troops at Oosthaven.

Malacca has level 3 forts and will be at level 2 AF in 3 days. Once that happens I'll have 100 x frontline fighters on CAP.

-----------------------

Submarine Warfare:

1 x dud/missed attack.

SS Jallao sank AK Yamakaze Maru near Jesselton on the 1st.

SS Cero claimed DD Amagiri sank with a torpedo NW of Luzon.

SS Salmon sank TK Sekino Maru near Sapporo on the 2nd.

SS Baya heavily damaged AK Sydney Maru with a torpedo near Soerabaya.

On the other side SS Seawolf and SS Tullibee were sunk by ASW escorts.

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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by JocMeister »



Ground combat at Praboemoelih (48,92)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 64087 troops, 817 guns, 227 vehicles, Assault Value = 2334

Defending force 16752 troops, 277 guns, 579 vehicles, Assault Value = 533

Japanese adjusted assault: 1243

Allied adjusted defense: 850

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 4)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
10870 casualties reported
Squads: 103 destroyed, 485 disabled
Non Combat: 109 destroyed, 59 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 41 disabled
Guns lost 90 (23 destroyed, 67 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
754 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 76 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 40 (7 destroyed, 33 disabled)
Vehicles lost 84 (3 destroyed, 81 disabled)

Assaulting units:
58th Infantry Regiment
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
21st Division
3rd Tank Division
1st South Seas Det.
18th Garrison Unit
6th Guards Inf. Regiment
8th Division
36th Infantry Regiment
32nd Ind.Mixed Bde /1
34th Ind.Mixed Brigade
138th Infantry Regiment
2nd Amphibious Brigade
46th Div /1
1st Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
31st Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
69th Field AA Battalion
51st Field AA Battalion
1st Guards Field Artillery Regiment
55th Const Co
68th Field AA Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
23rd AA Regiment
2nd Area Army
1st JAAF Base Force
21th JNAF AF Unit
34th Road Const Co
28th Air Flotilla
32nd Port Unit
13th RF Gun (Pack) Battalion
97th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
706th Tank Battalion
364th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
1st Filipino Inf Regiment
711th Tank Battalion
99th Indian Brigade
46th Construction Regiment
76th Coast AA Regiment
126th RAF Base Force
88th Medium Regiment
341 Wing

More than happy with this. Allied forces (from Djambi. 550 x AV) will be in Palembang in 2 days time and will then cut off the Jap forces for annihilation.

[/quote]

He won´t like that one! [X(]
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Speedysteve
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Nope. I do though [;)]
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by obvert »

Yeah, counter attacking dug in Allied troops late in game seems a bad idea. He's likely at the point where he's just trying anything though since Palembang is shutting down and he knows these troops are doomed anyway.

I noticed his air losses are quite low. Is he not fighting there much anymore?
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Yes this is my take on it too. He hasn't tried this elsewhere so why not try it somewhere that is already doomed anyhow!
 
With regard to air losses - it's in fits and starts. By that I mean Jap production has ground to a halt with Faber admitting the Japs built 10 of planes in total last month! As such I believe Faber leaves what planes he has in the areas he controls and then when I enter that 'space' they'll be frenetic battles with the local air units but there's no replacements to continue the fight!
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Yes this is my take on it too. He hasn't tried this elsewhere so why not try it somewhere that is already doomed anyhow!

With regard to air losses - it's in fits and starts. By that I mean Jap production has ground to a halt with Faber admitting the Japs built 10 of planes in total last month! As such I believe Faber leaves what planes he has in the areas he controls and then when I enter that 'space' they'll be frenetic battles with the local air units but there's no replacements to continue the fight!

Wow. You're doing quite well for late 44, already shutting down his airframe production without even having to bomb the factories! Impressive.

He must not have saved HI much. Most Japanese player try to get at least 3 million HI saved by now which can be quite a lot of planes for a good time to come.
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by BBfanboy »

Lots of credit to Faber for continuing the game. His economy was really toast from the time he could not evict you from the islands off Sumatra. The oil at Palembang is useless if you cannot dare send tankers/xAKs there.
I hope he sticks with it to 1945 - drawing close to Japan and triggering Kamikazes makes for a different game.
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
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RE: 1-4th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Indeed. Massive credit to Faber for carrying on. It can't be much fun doing nothing! I don't know all of the details other than Faber mentioned he'd taken his eye off the economy for 6 months and when he realised he didn't have enough material it was too late to rectify.
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5-9th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Hi all,

All things proceeding to plan.

Mariana's:

The Japs still stubbornly resist on both Tinian and Guam. Their strength is slowly weakening though and I'm hopeful both Islands will be in Allied hands over the next 7-10 days. The latest attacks will go in tomorrow supported by all of the CV air on hand. Here's the last attacks and strength levels:

Ground combat at Guam (106,95)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 13709 troops, 139 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 310

Defending force 56470 troops, 1352 guns, 1521 vehicles, Assault Value = 1566

Japanese ground losses:
529 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (2 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

AND

Ground combat at Tinian (108,94)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 60999 troops, 1409 guns, 1393 vehicles, Assault Value = 1643

Defending force 31201 troops, 333 guns, 163 vehicles, Assault Value = 549

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 1415

Japanese adjusted defense: 2095

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2103 casualties reported
Squads: 27 destroyed, 113 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 37 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 43 (4 destroyed, 39 disabled)
Vehicles lost 8 (3 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1623 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 89 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 40 (1 destroyed, 39 disabled)
Vehicles lost 24 (5 destroyed, 19 disabled)

A few Jap subs interfered with the Allied Armada on the 9th. Both APD Newman and AO Tomahawk were sunk. In return 4 enemy subs were claimed sunk (1 finished off by SS Wahoo!)

------------------

SRA:

All shipping will have returned to Ambon from Morotai tomorrow. We then begin to load up for Manado.

------------------

Darwin:

The Japs turned out to be very weak and virtually starving when Allied troops took Darwin on the 5th:

Ground combat at Darwin (76,124)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 21001 troops, 275 guns, 289 vehicles, Assault Value = 815

Defending force 16031 troops, 219 guns, 217 vehicles, Assault Value = 453

Allied adjusted assault: 350

Japanese adjusted defense: 41

Allied assault odds: 8 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied forces CAPTURE Darwin !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
838 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 84 disabled
Non Combat: 124 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 79 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 86 (81 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 188 (188 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
821 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Assaulting units:
24th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
29th Australian Brigade
2nd Australian Division
13th Australian Brigade
Port Moresby Brigade
108th Tank Attack Regiment

Defending units:
20th Division
2nd Tank Regiment
4th JAAF Base Force
47th Field AA Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
41st JNAF AF Unit
19th Ind. Engineer Regiment
5th JAAF AF Bn

The last of the enemy were mopped up over the next 5 days. Troops will now head west to take out the last few Jap held bases in NW Australia.

-------------------

Sumatra:

An empty Palembang was entered on the 7th and the remaining Jap troops are now surrounded and will starve outside Praboemoelih. In due course I'll begin to launch probes and then full out attacks once I've continued to bomb the enemy for another 10-14 days.

-------------------

Malaya:

The Malacca invasion convoy is now on it's way back to Oosthaven where it will load Phase 2 forces (originally due to land at Mersing but due to the lack of Jap response they'll unload at Malacca and march south towards Johore Bahru). It should be back at Oosthaven on the 12th. Fighters are providing LRCAP over the ships from Sumatran airfields.

By the way I spotted the Jap CV TF at Miri. I wonder if they'll venture westwards to try to attack he retreating transports......

-------------------

Submarine Warfare:

3 x dud/missed attacks.

SS Pintado sank SC Ch 47 near Sapporo on the 7th.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by JocMeister »

Nice work on Tinian. Every attack that brings down the forts is a good attack! Looks like he is about to fold! [:)]

If Faber has indeed really crashed the Jap economy you are going to have a field day bombing the HI without fighter opposition. I´m thinking he is kicking himself for not paying attention to the economy right now. But kudos to him for playing on despite his blunder! [&o]
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by obvert »

It's very strange that he considers it irrecoverable and can only make 10 planes in a month! I'm failing a bit to understand how this happened.

It must be mainly the lack of oil/fuel reserves to drive the economy. It seems like he would have not shipped enough back the the HI and been surprised by the Sumatra move and closure of oil shipments. I imagine this would also have been compounded by an almost complete lack of HI savings.

In short you must have done a very good job early, forcing him to overuse and overproduce and not focus on saving.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by koniu »

ORIGINAL: obvert

It's very strange that he considers it irrecoverable and can only make 10 planes in a month! I'm failing a bit to understand how this happened.

It must be mainly the lack of oil/fuel reserves to drive the economy. It seems like he would have not shipped enough back the the HI and been surprised by the Sumatra move and closure of oil shipments. I imagine this would also have been compounded by an almost complete lack of HI savings.

In short you must have done a very good job early, forcing him to overuse and overproduce and not focus on saving.
Even without fuel, and oil he should be able to produce planes.

Not know when You land in Sumatra but if that not happen before `44, so at end of `43 he should have at lest 2.000.000 HI in reserve. And HI is only what he need to produce planes.

From 2M HI he should be able to produce 55000 1E planes. Or maybe 30000 if he build also some 2E bombers.

Strange but without good data is hard to tell.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by obvert »

Well, exactly koniu, but if he was pressured to compete early on, then maybe he chose to use everything thinking the saving would happen later, and it never did? That's all I can imagine.

I've pretty much made what I needed in both games and still have measurable savings of HI, so it is hard to understand, but I'm sure there must be things we're just not able to see behind the scenes.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by Speedysteve »

Interesting discussion guys. Unfortunately I can't offer the accompanying data, on the Japanese economy, to be able to help further. Its also tough for me to judge what is and isn't possible as I haven't played the Japanese side much for several years.
 
I can say that I don't think we've had a heavy combat/attritional type war overall so not sure if I could have attrited his pools that much early on.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by castor troy »

if Raver isn't able to produce aircraft then he is doing something wrong or still seriously fails to understand how the system works. [&:]

I had a Japanese opponent pushed back to Japan and he told me that if he just halts his nav/merchant/arm/veh production and only uses the fuel/oil he produces in and around Japan (resources are pretty much unlimited anyway) he can still outproduce me in aircraft numbers if he wanted to. I thought he would be pulling my leg but when he finally surrendered he sent me his pw and I took a look at what was left and he was correct!

At the point he was telling me, there has long been no need anymore for merchant/naval factories to producing anything and he had lots of arm/veh pts in the pool and just had no need to really fill out his units anyway the way battles were fought (you invade, kill stuff and it takes too long to rebuild units so that would be a fault late war).

That said, the only way to stop Japan from producing pretty much as many aircraft as they want to is to bomb the factories/engine plants. If he doesn't produce aircraft, his fault.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by PaxMondo »

CT is mostly correct, you can generate about 2000 HI/day if you still control undamaged oil centers in Japan/Korea/MAN/FOR/Kuriles. IF you have built up good stocks of HI and ARM/VEH and engines prior to losing the DEI (Mike Solli school of econ), you can still build a/c like crazy.

However, IF you overbuilt a/c in 42/43, did not get HI/ARM/VEH stockpiled, yeah you are in trouble. You get a ton of units in 44/45 that you desparately need for defense. But if you are low on ARM/VEH, they come in at only 1/3 strength ... essentially just brigades, not ID's.

If Faber can only build 10 ac/day, this is likely what has happened. He doesn't have stockpiles, has to split between AC and ARM, getting not enough of either. rule of thumb is you want at least 4M HI + 500K ARM/VEH in stockpile when you lose DEI as IJ. If this occurs in mid 44, you should be able to fight effectively until the end. If you lose the DEI earlier you would need more stockpiled.

Flip this around for the allies: you need to pressure the IJ so that cannot make their stockpile OR take the DEI sooner than mid-44. As Mike would say: it is all logisitics. The battles are just frosting.
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RE: 5-9th October 1944

Post by obvert »

Pax, you have to be joking! No one I've ever seen has anywhere near 4 million HI and 500k (!!!) armaments and vehicles.

I've looked at tracker and if I'm understanding it correctly I should only need another 90k ARM and 35k VEH to fill out what is in the pipeline. Maybe I'm reading or understanding it incorrectly. I'll look at that again and try to do some economics posts in my AAR so we can leave Speedy to talk about more interesting things here! [:)]

As for Faber here, yeah, there should have been some even if he wasn't trying if he didn't overproduce airframes and accelerate every single ship early on.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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