A Road Less Travelled

[Quixote]

We're also playing with the "p" version. I know Michael had been playing around with surrender and retreat for some of the more extreme conditions, but I hadn't played a PBEM with any of the changes. I'd say what I'm seeing now is more realistic then I was used to - having to beat an already demoralized and routed unit 8 or 9 times before it surrenders always struck me as a bit off - but I may also be a bit prejudiced right now since it's working in my favor.

[pontiouspilot]

An interesting approach but tell me the strategic goals and proposed time lines. If you described it earlier I misssed it so point me.

[Quixote]

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

An interesting approach but tell me the strategic goals and proposed time lines. If you described it earlier I misssed it so point me.

Thanks. I thought it was interesting, too. (Interesting enough to try out, at least.)

In terms of strategic goals, you did not miss anything. I haven't addressed them yet.

In terms of timelines, I think a Christmas capture of Singapore was all I'd outlined so far. We'll find out in a few days if I'm 1 for 1 on my timelines or not.

When I put the plan together, I ended up with three separate directions I figured I could choose from depending on how the game progressed, and on where Cannonfodder chose to commit his early Allied reserves. Since I don't know where he's decided to commit yet, I don't know which of these three variations I'll end up putting in place.

In short, I guess I could write up several pages on why I'm doing what I'm doing (though odds are only one or two people would bother reading it) or I can keep writing the AAR, and you can decide for yourself where you think I'm going, where you think I really should be going, what I'm so obviously doing wrong, and all that other fun stuff you get with AARs.[:)] For the moment at least, I'll stick with the AAR.

[Quixote]

December 17 and 18, 1941

China - Hong Kong falls. The Allied withdrawl from the Wenchow pocket continues. Japanese recon abilities prove to be just a bit off when one small IJA tank unit and a para-dropped SNLF take on about eight times more Chinese AV then they were expecting at Kahsien on the 17th. Cannonfodder apparently wasn't confident enough to shock back on the 18th (or he just forgot), so things could have been worse.

New Guinea - Port Moresby and Horn Island both fall on the 18th. Betties with working torpedoes are now flying from Rabaul, which raised it's AF to level 4 last turn.

Timor - Landings on the 17th. Lautem was captured on the 18th. The Koepang force got a 2-1, but failed to take the city.

Singapore - The clock ticks...

[desicat]

I find this opening fascinating as your initial successes in the DEI has created a "bubble" where his starting naval forces have been decimated and you are picking off his bases piecemeal. At this point he would be foolish to try and penetrate the bubble so he actually has fairly robust naval forces (no PH attack) with really no where to go so long as the location of the KB is in doubt. His carrier forces can't stand up to yours and your LB air is setting up to cover the approaches to the bubble.

In the IO the RN has been severely weakened with the loss of Force Z, the lack of submarines for "eyes" on what is going on, and the bubble isolating naval reinforcements from the Pacific. Seems to me that with a quick sacking of Singapore the released forces will make Burma and the coast of India easy targets, especially on this early timeline.

Oh, and from looking at the picture above Darwin is a death trap.

[Quixote]

December 19 and 20, 1941

Sumatra/Java - Oosthaven fell on the 19th. The bombing of Java (at Batavia) began on the 19th, with the Dutch holding their own in the air against escorted (and unescorted) bombers. The fighter sweeps on the 20th were another story though, as the Allies lost 55 fighters on the day (most Dutch) at the expense of only 2 zeroes.

Darwin - His SCTF disappeared, so the CVs took a swipe at a couple of xAPs and escorts in Darwin in the morning, and sank AS Platypus and a couple smaller friends further west in the afternoon. He knows where at least some of my carriers are again, now.

Malaya - Up north, Georgetown falls, and Alor Star should get taken on the 21rst. Down south, the Singapore Area Army has travelled 36 miles of the way from Johore to Singers. Should see the shock attack next turn if they don't all get stuck at 45 miles.

China - He remembered to shock back at Kahsien on the 19th. My tanks and paras were rudely evicted. Other Japanese advances were more fortunate, and routed a couple of smaller Chinese corps.

Phillipines - Mindanao is now Japanese except for Zamboanga, which he can keep for a few more weeks. On Luzon, despite having less than 100 AV at my original two bases, I now own five bases. The rowboat corps has been busy.

The Pacific - In what was surely a war-winning event, two Japanese base forces captured Guam on only their forth attempt. I'm sure Cannonfodder's offer of surrender will be coming along shortly.[:'(]

Horn Island - Cannonfodder sent in a small SCTF built around CAs Australia and Canberra on the 20th. Too late to stop the landings, of course, but not too late to sink some transports. Two combats took place. First, his SCTF attacked the retiring transports, then they ran into the DD group I had screening them. Canberra took a few shell hits and one torpedo, while Japan lost an old 18-knot CL and three xAKs. Even though it won't do much to stop my advances, it had to be nice for Cannonfodder to finally get in a strike after the past couple of weeks.

[Quixote]

Only have time for a quick post, so this will have to do for now.

[buutsy]

That´s what i call "Blitzkrieg" [:D]
Christmas in Singa is a fine thing [X(][&o]

[Quixote]

ORIGINAL: buutsy

That´s what i call "Blitzkrieg" [:D]
Christmas in Singa is a fine thing [X(][&o]

Thanks buutsy! Fortunately my troops will have a little extra time to enjoy themselves in Singers before having to leave and fight elsewhere. We're up to the December 24th turn, and Cannonfodder is now off on holiday with his wife and little one for a week. So on the night before Christmas, nothing will be stirring, not even a mouse...for the next few days, anyway.

Since I'll have the turn for a whole week, I'll spend a bit of time addressing a few of the economic and production items I put off during the first couple of game weeks, and I'll start reorganizing for the second phase of the blitz.

[desicat]

I'll spend a bit of time addressing a few of the economic and production items I put off during the first couple of game weeks, and I'll start reorganizing for the second phase of the blitz.

Hopefully you will detail some of those items here so those following can pick up a few pointers.

[pontiouspilot]

I actually also agree with keeping strategic goals floating. Given the rampage, Ceylon is an unguarded virgin for the plucking! My 2 bits worth would be at minimum to grab that and Calcutta before turning East.

This approach asks a interesting historical question: If Pearl didn't happen and the Brits and Aussies were stampeded that quick, what would America's real commitment to a long Pacific war have been?

[Capt. Harlock]

If Pearl didn't happen and the Brits and Aussies were stampeded that quick, what would America's real commitment to a long Pacific war have been?

An excellent question. It would be going too far to describe the U. S. economy during WWII as "communist", but it was most certainly government-controlled and centrally-planned. Taking over the automobile industry, to mention just one area, would not have been politically possible without the universal outrage over Pearl Harbor. My opinion, for whatever it's worth, is that Roosevelt would have been willing to make a treaty allowing the Japanese Empire to keep Korea, French Indochina AKA Vietnam, and large chunks of China.

[Quixote]

I actually also agree with keeping strategic goals floating. Given the rampage, Ceylon is an unguarded virgin for the plucking! My 2 bits worth would be at minimum to grab that and Calcutta before turning East.

The Allied reserves I'm interested in before finalizing objectives are the British 18th Division and the two Commonwealth brigades that start the game at sea near Bombay/Karachi. All three of these units could be on Ceylon now if he committed them quickly. I already know he sent at least one of those units to Ceylon. (One of my subs sank xAP Dunera off Columbo, but didn't damage any troops. Dunera starts the game carrying the 46th Ind. Brigade, so the sub probably caught her on the way out, after having already dropped off troops in Colombo.) If all three of those units are on Ceylon, that extra 650AV could make it a target somewhat less than virginal.[:'(]

I'm going to take it anyway, though.

Three reasons.
1. Completely eliminating the Brit 18th division would be worth the losses I'd probably incur.
2. Ceylon is worth the resources I'd have to spend for its advantageous game position, especially this early.
3. Ceylon is worth it for the Victory Points. If I think I can pull off an auto-victory in this game, then I'll try for it. Taking Ceylon leaves this possibility open.

[Quixote]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

If Pearl didn't happen and the Brits and Aussies were stampeded that quick, what would America's real commitment to a long Pacific war have been?

An excellent question. It would be going too far to describe the U. S. economy during WWII as "communist", but it was most certainly government-controlled and centrally-planned. Taking over the automobile industry, to mention just one area, would not have been politically possible without the universal outrage over Pearl Harbor. My opinion, for whatever it's worth, is that Roosevelt would have been willing to make a treaty allowing the Japanese Empire to keep Korea, French Indochina AKA Vietnam, and large chunks of China.

Admittedly my history of the politics of this period is mediocre at best, but I tend to agree with you. Even though Roosevelt wanted the US involved in Europe, he may not have been able to get public opinion mobilized for a war with Japan without some suitable Casus Belli.

[Quixote]

ORIGINAL: desicat

I'll spend a bit of time addressing a few of the economic and production items I put off during the first couple of game weeks, and I'll start reorganizing for the second phase of the blitz.

Hopefully you will detail some of those items here so those following can pick up a few pointers.

I'm probably better at the strategic aspects of the game than I am at the economic ones, but I'll try to share at least some of what I'm working on this week, and you can decide for yourself what's worth picking up and what's not.

Strategically, here's a shot of how things stand as of our holiday armistice. It should give you some idea how much flexibility Japan has for continued expansion.

[Quixote]

Well, I said I'd do a post on economics and production this week, so here it is.

(Disclaimer 1: You are welcome to borrow any or all of these ideas. Just be aware that most of them haven't been fully tested yet.[:)])

(Disclaimer 2: It's hard to mix in lots of fun pictures when discussing production, especially when you don't have Tracker working, so this will probably end up looking very much like a wall of text. If that's not your cup of tea, please feel free to skip this post and move on to the next one, where I'll do my best to be brief and to include a map or a picture of some kind.)


Naval Production - These are the changes from default Scenario 2 settings.

CV/CVL - Accelerate the first 4 CVs (sorted by earliest arrival date). Halt the Taiyo (for now.) Halt the Shinano when it hits production (permanent.)
CVE - Accelerate the first 2 CVEs.
BB - Halt Musashi.
CA/CL - Accelerate CL Oyodo.
AP - Halt 7 of the higher value (endurance) ones - starting from as far back in the queue as possible.
AK - Halt almost all of them.
TK/AO - Halt the 2 30-point TKsdue in June/August 42.
SS - Halt the 7 boats due May-September 42 (for now)

I did not expand any of the Naval or Merchant shipyards. After some initial production, I'll end up shutting some of these yards down.

Naval Conversions - Pretty standard, I think. Converted 10 or so ships to AKE, 4 to AG, and a couple to AS and AD. Converted a few of the really small xAKLs to PBs, ACMs, and AMcs.

Armament and Vehicle - I left Armament alone, and bumped Vehicle production slightly. The only units in the game accepting replacements right now are the unrestricted IJA divisions and a few tank units. I'll open the floodgates in China shortly.

Engine Production - Again, these are the changes from Scenario 2 default.

Mit 32 - Bumped to 405 total (after all lines repair.)
Mit 33 - Bumped to 170 total (after all lines repair.)
Nak 34 - Bumped to 80 total (after all lines repair.)
Nak 35 - Bumped to 342 total (after all lines repair.)

Every other (non-R&D) engine factory was converted to one of the above. I will continue to build several planes using existing obsolete engines, but I will not produce any more of those engines right now. (I contemplated leaving the Hitachi Amakaze line running for another month or two to insure an adequate supply of Glens later in the game, but decided against it. If Glen losses are high, it won't be too costly to convert a small factory in a couple of years, and in the meantime I'll have that factory working towards an engine bonus for R&D as early as possible.)

Engine R&D - I do not plan to build any jets, so no Toko Rocket or NE Turbo Jet. Not building the Ka-1 either, so no Kayaba Argus. Unless you see it listed below, I converted the factory to something I thought would be more useful.

Aichi 60 - Bumped slightly (to 160.)
Kawasaki 60 - Unchanged. (I'll use the Tony, but don't plan to put any extra effort into getting it early.)
Mitsubishi 43 - Bumped slightly (to 20). (All the planes using this engine are too far away to start worrying about the R&D bonus. Will re-evaluate this one down the road.)
Nakajima 44 - Bumped slighty (to 80.)
Nakajima 45 - Bumped significantly (to 276.) (So many good planes use this engine mid to late game that it has to be accelerated.)

Aircraft Production

Most of my airframe production lines are currently producing....nothing. For the moment, anyway. The exceptions are as follows:

1. I'm producing some A6M2 Zeroes, but have not boosted production yet.
2. I'm producing planes that use obsolete engines I already have in the pool (Glen, using up the Hitachi Amakaze; Sally Ic using up the Nak-5; B5N1 Kate using up the Nakajimi Hikari; etc.)
3. I'm producing planes that use Mitsubishi 33 engines (Vals, Nells, Jakes, Tinas, Mavis) although I haven't expanded these much yet (modest bumps to Jake and Val.)

The goal here is to get multiple R&D bonuses for engines into play as soon as possible, hence the combined bump in engine production and the massive inital cuts in some production. If my early campaigns can manage to sustain themselves using this approach, then I'll have 500+ Nak-35 and Mit-32 in my pools very soon. (This may end up being as different as the Singapore opening. Someone must have tried this before, but I don't recall ever seeing it in an AAR. We'll see how it works out.)

Aircraft R&D

This is the only category where I won't bother to go into exact numbers, but in general, here are the planes I'm looking to accelerate:

1. Judy (I want a better dive bomber than the Val while I still have time enough to use it.)
2. Jill
3. The Zero line.
4. Jack (not pushing the R&D too heavily, but since I should have the Mit-32 engine bonus by Feb 42, I'll put something into it.)
5. George
6. Frank (Never too early to start this one. OK, maybe it is a month too early to start, but I'm doing it anyway...)

Along with the above models, I also ramped up both Tojo and Helen. I plan to let at least a couple of the R&D lines convert to production and I'd like to get both of these planes into regular use ASAP.

So there's production in a nutshell. I know I said it would be tough to do, but I'm including one picture here - mostly for Richard. Rich, if you continue to have problems with supply in Gifu, try the following: (adding in a restricted division won't hurt here, either.)

[Richard III]

"I know I said it would be tough to do, but I'm including one picture here - mostly for Richard. Rich, if you continue to have problems with supply in Gifu, try the following: (adding in a restricted division won't hurt here, either.) "
 
Thanks Alex, moving some of the AAA fixed it.
 
R. 

[Quixote]

Richard - Glad that helped. I ran into the same problem in my first PBEM when supply was occasionally running low, and that was the best (or at the least simplest) fix I came up with.

As it's hard to update an AAR multiple times during a week when there's no actual fighting going on, I won't add much right now other than to say that Cannonfodder gets back from holiday tomorrow, so we should see a continuation of the war effort shortly.

Since I'm posting anyway, though, I'll try to add at least one useful item for those planning to play Japan in the future. Manchuria starts out with a lot of engineers. Unless you are going to attack Russia early, those engineers don't really have much to do. In this game, I chose to move all of those engineers straight to Fusan - both the independents, and those embedded in brigades/divisions (since you can't detach just the engineers themselves.) Normally, resources/fuel etc. will accumulate at Port Arthur, because it's the biggest base in Korea and it creates the most demand. It's not the most useful base when considering its proximity to Japan, though. That would be Fusan.

In short, try using all of those engineers to build up Fusan early in the game, while at the same time leaving Port Arthur alone. Run your Korea/Home Islands convoys between Fusan/Fukuoka instead of between Port Arthur/Fukuoka This will save you both time and fuel. It will also limit losses to subs. (With the use of mines, and with coastal routing of TFs in beta, it can actually eliminate losses to subs completely.)

Also, with the expansion of the airfield (to AF9), Fusan makes an ideal place to base all of the training air units in Manchuria, too.

[Quixote]

December 26, 1941

Malaya - All mines have been cleared at Singapore. Shipping arriving this turn to begin loading troops for continued ops on the 27th.

Phillipines - Cannonfodder finally flew the only fighters I think he has left in the P.I. - the old P-35s. I expected them to fly them sooner or later, but my LRCAP was apparently still too weak over Clark. Alas, I lost 9 Anns to WWI-era fighters...

Java - More Dutch fighters were downed in sweeps at Batavia. No Japanese losses incurred.

Burma - Lashio fell to paratroops (from Haiphong.) Note: There are non-restricted units in both Moulmein and Haiphong that can reinforce Lashio by air. I had these troops in position seven days ago, but hadn't decided to pull the trigger yet. It's amazing what a full week of down time can convince you to try.... Either way, the Burma Road is about to be closed.

China - Kanhsien (SE of Changsha) falls at 13-1 to a mixed group of IJA brigades, IJA tanks, and IJN Paras. SE of Nanchang, the Allies have 2 more units soon to be isolated, along with 300AV or so or of troops that will be shocked SW of Nanyang next turn. Thus far, the Allies have won exactly zero battles in China. Given my initial results in China last PBEM, this is almost scary...

[Capt. Harlock]

Lashio fell to paratroops (from Haiphong.) Note: There are non-restricted units in both Moulmein and Haiphong that can reinforce Lashio by air. I had these troops in position seven days ago, but hadn't decided to pull the trigger yet. It's amazing what a full week of down time can convince you to try.... Either way, the Burma Road is about to be closed.

The expansion of the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere is going at an impressive rate. How do you evaluate the chances for auto-victory at the end of 1942?