The march of progress - Lokasenna (J) vs. HexHead (A), no HH please

[Lokasenna]

I have another turn to post, but the notes for it are at home... In the meantime, last week I looked at some R&D. Now, I have no idea at what date my R&D factories will be running at 30(0), but I've made some conservative assumptions.

In general, I feel a little lost here since I inherited a disorganized mess and I'm starting 2 months into the war. Advice appreciated! It's not too late to move some factories around, as none are fully repaired to 30(0). In fact, most have fewer than 5 points repaired and almost all are fewer than 10. Realistic R&D is ON.

As I do these calculations, I'm thinking that the HI cost of the engine bonus is well worth it (only about 5k per month to provide 8 bonus points per day!), and later in the war when I'm lower on HI, I'll already have a pool of engines sitting around so I only need the HI for the airframes...


A6M Line
A6M2-N is available in 42/4. I have 8 factories right now, but none are repaired to 30(0). Still, sometime in March I should have them at or near 30(0), so I am assuming that they'll be humming along at or near 30 points come 4/1 (actually only 40 turns away...). Additionally, there is 1 A6M3 factory researching at present. It is available on 6/1. I plan to repair it to 30(0) and then upgrade it to A6M5 while one of the Rufe factories produces Rufes for a while. Once the A6M5 is available, I may stop producing Rufes and have 2 A6M5 production factories.

Extrapolating at 8 R&D points per day, and assuming that I don't have Ha-35 engine bonus until 10/42, I get the below availability dates. Current engine pools are 125 with 40 surplus production each month, but increasing production by 2 per day until I have a sizeable surplus... I'm not sure I want to have the 240 surplus each month required to run 8 factories with engine bonus, so I'll probably stop expanding engine production (well) before then. Especially since actual A6M production will have to increase from its present 103(17).

A6M5 Normal availability: 43/8. R&D @ 8%/day beginning April 1: 42/9. It will be 100% research on 8/16/42, but I don't want the factories to upgrade on me so I'll wait until 9/1.

A6M5b Normally 44/6, with engine bonus starting October 1 (or so) will be available on January 1, 1943 (fully researched on 12/24/42). If I don't make 240 Ha-35 surplus, this won't happen.

A6M5c Normally 44/10, with 8 full R&D plus engine bonus will be available 43/5.

A6M8 (Do people R&D/produce this one?) Different engine, so slower research. Normally 45/8. If I keep all 8 factories going, it will be available around 44/1. I'm not sure that's worth it.


Using the same assumptions (fully repaired 5 months ahead of time, or thereabouts), here's what I come up with for the other aircraft lines:

D4Y, 8 factories
Val factories will switch to D4Y in order to keep research humming along; I want the 800-kg Judy ASAP. Assuming Ha-60 engine bonus, which comes online on 5/21/42 and will produce 120/mo, so I will have 500 in the pool by 10/1/42. I should keep the D4Y2 in production until I'm out of engines - 500+ for kamis later? At 360mph it's not too slow.

D4Y1: Normally 43/4, expected 43/1 if full research begins on 10/1/42.
D4Y2: Normally 44/4, expected 43/3.
D4Y3: Normally 44/8 (uses Ha-33, unsure on engine bonus). Expected 43/8 with no bonus, research finished on 7/28 or so.
D4Y4: Normally 45/2, expected mid-January, 1944, with no bonus.

B6N, 5 factories
Similar to Vals, the Kate factories will transition to B6N while the R&D keeps going. I'm currently building B5N1 as well as N2 until the engines run out. Assuming a "full research date" of 42/12. It uses the Ha-32 from the N2 onward, so I may have the engine bonus (also used for Jack, Betty, and Emily).

B6N1: Normally 43/5, expected 43/2. Am not sure I'll actually produce this model, due to using the Ha-44 engine and I don't want to produce that for only one airframe for a limited time. The B5N2 will do until I get the B6N2.
B6N2: Normally 43/10, expected 43/5 with no engine bonus.
B6N2a: Normally 44/11, may not research. The only effective difference is radar, which isn't available until 44/11 anyway.


Ki-44, 8 factories
Currently 10 are in R&D status, but I plan to transition 2 to production when it's available (42/5 if I'm lucky, the standard 42/6 otherwise - the factories aren't repairing very fast here in 42/2).

Ki-44b: Normally 43/7, expected 42/10 with no engine bonus.
Ki-44c: Normally 44/3, expected February 10, 1943...or so. With no engine bonus.


N1K, 6 factories

N1K1: Normally 43/7, expected 43/5 with research beginning in 43/3.
N1K2: Normally 44/11, expected 43/11 with no bonus.
N1K5: SR3, but will still research... Normally 45/10, expected 44/7.


The Ki-84...I still have 13 factories allocated here, of the 20+ originally allocated when I took over the game. Most are still at 0(1) status. I'm thinking I should move 1 to N1K so I can have a factory producing while still researching with 6, and at least 2 to J2M.

Overall, are my dates too late? Other than the Ki-84, am I currently overinvested somewhere? I also have
3x Ki-43 factories
2x Dinah-III factories
4x Ki-83 factories (I'd like to see this in action if I can)
2x Ki-67 (not sold on the usefulness of this airframe)
3x Ki-49-IIa (armored bomber! Will keep -49-Ia in production for MAD later)
2x E16A1
1x A6M5d-S
1x Nick (for production)
1x Rex (for production)
1x Jack (need more here, from Ki-84 I think)
2x Emily (for production)
1x D4Y2-C (for production)

[Lokasenna]

Burma Situation

Here's a map of the Burma/upper Thailand area as of 2/13/42.

Rangoon has elements of 55th ID (including the Engr Rgt) as well as 2 AF Coys. More is en route to build up the base, and AA units are on the rails to Pisanuloke. They will move over the dirt road to Moulmein and then I'll send them with my forces to occupy Magwe. 3x12 Oscars are at Rangoon presently, 24 are stood down. They will move to Magwe with the AF and AA units once they're in place. 12 Oscars will remain at Rangoon to perform CAP or sweep duties as needed. I plan to bring more fighters in the theater once Singapore is captured. Even though air resistance at the British fortress is light, I'm taking no chances with my bomber units. I don't want a surprise CAP to appear and shoot down a dozen good pilots.

[Lokasenna]

The Java Sea Situation

Invasion of Sumatra is imminent....ish. Just waiting on 53rd ID to make Hong Kong (2 days plus unload), and then it's onto the amphibious TF for Oosthaven. Palembang is lightly defended and the airfield is closed. I would be surprised if it took more than the ID, but of course I'll send a couple of SNLFs and perhaps an armour unit from the Celebes to supplement the effort. D-Day is currently set for 15 days from now (February 28! Last of the Amphib Bonus?).

Not pictured, but the Medan invasion forces at 9 days out of Saigon. D-Day for the invasion there is ~2.5 or 3 weeks. The Merak invasion will come after I've taken Singapore and have started loading/prepping units for Java. I expect to be moving into Singapore within a week, and hopefully it will fall fast. The airfield is closed, but I have no idea on fort level. We'll find out soon.

Out of the picture, I hold Muntok (which hits AF 1 soon) and Singkawang with medium air forces (2x Zero units, 2x Netty units). The Java Sea area is pretty much a no-sail/no-fly zone for the Allies.

Also not pictured, but engineers and Av Supp is ETA Makassar 7 days.

Takao/Maya & Co. are heading a few hexes SW in case I haven't sighted more ships fleeing Soerabaja for Australia. They'll patrol a few hexes off the screenshot there.

[Lokasenna]

China



The gist of all this is:

1) I hope to take Liuchow and Kweilin (as well as Nanning) to open the Magic Coast Road to Hong Kong.

2) I am "close" to trapping his troops at Nanyang. At present I have semi-expendable armor units in place on the roads, and have a medium stack of his trapped east of Sinyang. I want the VPs from these units, and to make him a little starved for supply in Chungking in a couple of months. I have a large stack moving in from the NW, one ID of which he sighted and attempted to engage in combat (that's a new unit of his outside of Sian, it looks to be a Corps of ~300 AV). Once his stack outside Sinyang is defeated, I'll be moving my units to come into Nanyang from multiple directions, looking to destroy more units in place there. Once that's done, I am going to move on Loyang/Chengchow simultaneously. This later thrust will likely include units from the eastern side of the river, and probably at least one more LCU from Manchukuo.

3) I am looking to decimate his units in SE China. So far I'm stalemating/grinding with him outside of Hangchow, but eventually I'll rout him. Then it's on to Chuhsien and to let him rot in the wilderness. His supply is cut off and the garrison levels on the coast will be too high for him to threaten any of them.

4) WTF do I do at Changsha? I still have 2k AV sitting in the city, but I'm terrified of the losses I would take in an attack.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

I think Changsha has to be surrounded. its just a tough grind otherwise. It took me a long time to work around the flanks there and prep my stacks for it

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

I think Changsha has to be surrounded. its just a tough grind otherwise. It took me a long time to work around the flanks there and prep my stacks for it

Thanks. Yeah, I'm thinking I need to move into Hengyang and such first, which is part of why I've decided to move my small Armored Car Co. across the river to the west. With the poor Chinese recon, I'm hoping he doesn't even see this unit or if he does, that he doesn't see movement dots. Not that the 3 bases in the clear are at all undefended, but I think the stack heading to Liuchow can take care of them. It may be something that I need to wait on the clearing out of Chuhsien for, unless I bring in other forces from Manchukuo or Japan (either would require PPs). I may bring some forces out of Changsha to circle around to Hengyang. Those 2 bases with units west of Changsha appear to have medium defenses, ~30-35k troops at each. But that's nothing my IJAAF bombers + armor can't handle in those clear hexes. I want to keep enough troops in Changsha that he doesn't bring them over to reinforce the bases, and once they're gone I can't decide whether I'd prefer he run away towards Changteh or get trapped at Changsha. In broad strokes, I think I'd prefer he ran towards Changteh and I would like to bottle him up there without any supply by taking Chihkiang and holding the road crossing to the east.

My overall strategy I think is going to be a roughly historical Pacific conquest so as not to overextend any MLRs, allowing me to focus on a strong land war in China and Burma (later Thailand with its defensive terrain, as Burma seems indefensible in late 43 and 44). So maybe I will send a couple of units from Japan there. I still have some armor to buy out from Manchukuo, and at least one highly experienced ID as well.

[Lokasenna]

Got several days to post again, as usual. It's easier to find chunks of time than it is to post every time I get a turn done.

February 12
Status report:
-Kinugasa is at 36/59(37)/5(2). She'll live, and is heading to Saigon for repairs. Over the next several days, her damage decreases by 1-2 per day in both System and Float. Good crew.
-No failure of Tokyo LI this time, and resources still at 8 days stockpile. Up to 374k from 309k in transit. I appear to be bottlenecked at Ominato - the port is only 29% of the way to size 7. I may have to look at unloading at more distant ports from Hokkaido.

Subs
I-172 hits xAP Taroona with a torpedo near Hawaii. Heavy damage, but she doesn't sink. Big ship.

I-175 sights a TK between Canton and Baker, but she misses with all 2 torpedoes ([8|]) she fired.

I-24 sights a doomed CL Sumatra on her way out of Soerabaja harbor. Her torpedoes miss.

North Pacific
Adak is occupied. Building begins. I need to send more Nav Gd units to this area to provide a small garrison on other islands. Likely, I will use one Nav Gd unit fragmented among several Fast Trans TFs to take several islands at once, and soon after garrison on only the ones I want to defend speedbump-style.

DEI
FT TF drops off another Nav Gd at Tarakan. Almost enough to take the base now.

CL Java and 2 Dutch DDs bombard Babar. I did not expect this, but it's nice that my opponent is showing some teeth. Maybe I'll send in some DDs to leave a surprise if I find some to spare...or maybe I'll surprise him with KB-1.

8 Zeroes sweep Soerabaja and shoot down 4 Demons + 1 Hawk for the loss of 1 Zero plus an ops loss.

13 Dutch -139s try to bomb KB again, but all are shot down by a fully layered CAP this time. Do-24K's also try, but are shot down or scared away. 3 Hudsons also shot down.

KB-1 launches against CL Sumatra, outside of Mataram. She takes 4 bombs and sinks. Despite more sightings in the area, no more KB-1 raids. Turns out all the sightings are 4x AMc TFs, presumably on ASW/harbor speedbump duty.

South Pacific
KB-2 (in the vicinity of Ndeni) launches 8 Kates against CA Australia near Luganville/Lakatoro. 2 bomb hits on her, and Canberra is also sighted.

China
A 32:1 odds DA outside Sinyang gets 2 Chinese Corps units to surrender. Will continue until this stack is a ghost or dead.

A 1:1 DA outside of Hangchaw results in slightly more overall IJA casualties than Chinese, but I've got to be wearing down his supplies and fatiguing his troops by now.

Other stuff
Hearing the "ship sinking" sound effect in damage control phases is becoming a common occurrence. It's heard at noon and at dusk today, and nothing of mine sank, so...

Truk hits Port 7, Rabaul Forts 2.

[Lokasenna]

February 13
Resources are +18k in Japan from last turn. Have I turned the corner? I hope so.

Subs
S-18 (at first I thought it was I-18) sighted by KB escorts near Kirakira, and somewhat driven off. He sees a Kongo and DDs, so he probably knows what this is.

I-8 hits xAK American Leader with 2 torps near Nadi and sinks her.

Midget sub in Sydney's hex hits xAP Zealandia with 1 torpedo, resulting in "massive explosive damage". She doesn't sink right away, but something does sink in the damage control phase immediately thereafter. I hope it was her. The SSX later hits a mine in the harbor and doesn't sink right away, but does end up sinking. Too bad; the pilot did well.

I-1 sinks xAK Forbes Hauptmann just 1 hex outside of Pearl with fuel cargo on board.

I-21 sinks xAK Unicoi with 2 torpedoes 2 hexes NE of that.

I wish going after Allied shipping with subs was a viable long term strategy; it's so much fun. Oh well, every xAK and xAP I sink now is still hurting his logistics. Later, I'll probably be trying to sink warships or AKAs/APAs.

In the DEI, Dutch sub KVII launches 4 torpedoes at Soryu [X(]. All miss and the sub escapes. I'm going to have to be more careful - I didn't move KB-1 this turn and he plopped the sub right on top of me.

USS Sturgeon hits CM Itsukushima with one torpedo near Ambon. She'll have to head for port, damage is moderate in the 30's Flt.

DEI
Another Fast Trans drop off at Tarakan. Up to 2x Nav Gd and 1x IJA battalion now.

5 more -139s are shot down attempting to bomb KB and the Fuso/Ise SCTF.

Usual bombings of Singapore, Palembang (and Manila/Bataan). Catalinas come for Babar's port again, but I don't care about port damage there. I'm also currently out of supply, so he's only risking ops losses for no gain at the moment.

China
The 5 trapped Chinese units outside of Sinyang are no longer trapped due to a movement calculation error on my part. After a DA, they retreat across the river to the east. A 6th unit is destroyed. I'm up 63 VPs in Allied LCU VPs this turn, most of which must be from this stack. I had planned to destroy them in situ, but "ghosting" them is almost as good. I'll settle for that.

Other stuff
Finschafen joins the Sphere.

Fusan forts hit 3...unnecessary! Stopping this waste of supplies.

Miri AF increases to 3.04, increasing my spoilage limits.

62, 63, 64, 65, and 67 Nav Gd units arrive at Tokyo. They'll help secure the PI for now, I think (starting with Cebu once they're on xAKs with escorts), and then I might send them to the North Pacific.

13th Nav Const Bn arrives at Osaka. Will head to Tokyo for later deployment.

12th Base Force arrives at Saigon. Unsure what to do with them for now, so they'll stay put and provide Av Supp to the Netties bombing Singapore.

[Lokasenna]

February 14

Subs
I-20 (midget sub carrier) sinks xAK Indira on the surface outside Trincomalee.

I-3 and I-166 are sighted by ASW near Pearl and Colombo respectively. Going to move a bit offshore.

DEI
I don't know what to call Darwin, but the strike launched from there. 36 Nells from Ambon at 2k penetrate Darwin's airspace (where there is now a CAP of 15 P-40s at 20,000 ft) and put a torpedo into CL Java. KB-1 is nearby, will try to strike again tomorrow.

DA at Tarakan gets 1:1 odds and reduces forts to 0. Will try again soon.

China
A successive DA outside Hangchow finally breaks the Chinese. The 8th Armored Car Co. is destroyed in the attack but will be bought back. 671 IJA casualties vs. 4231 Chinese, the vast majority (60-75%) of which are destroyed.

My brigade crossing into Nanning gets 1:2 odds on its SA, but it's not too bad. The Chinese have an op mode penalty and all of my casualties are merely disabled. I plan to sit here and make him eat supply, but he has other ideas tomorrow.

Philippines
Another attack at Manila, which still doesn't fall. My casualties are mostly disabled (only 1 or 2 devices destroyed) while his are >50% destroyed. Forts still at 0.

Other stuff
AMc Wa-1 arrives at Tokyo, the first of her class.

Yokohama Ku T-1 Det (2 Emilys) arrives at Yokohama.

45th I.F. Chutai (2 of 12 Idas) arrives at Keijo, will upgrade to Sallys for 75 PP, fill out, and head to NE China for bombing troops.

91st I.F. Chutai (2 of 12 Sonias) arrives at Tokyo, will train pilots.


Rangoon Forts to 3.
Adak Forts to 1.
Kagoshima Port to 5.

[Lokasenna]

February 15

Vehicle pool has drained to 29. It was over 1000 several turns ago. I am producing 130/turn and am above the production curve in Tracker so am loathe to increase my production. Units will just have to wait, although I am going to rebuild that 8th Armored Car Co. ARM units are just too valuable. I also bought back the 4th Tank Rgt, destroyed before I took over the game.

A Glen snooped Pearl last turn. Looks like there's a CV and some cruisers (2 CL) there in separate TFs and some TKs. My money is on Saratoga/Trenton/Concord with 15% confidence [8D].

Subs
I-168 detects passage of AVP Avocet east of Canton. Later, she hits TK Mobilgas and starts heavy fires on her. And then hits AK Arcturus in 2 successive attacks, sinking her. This sub is pro.

I-20 sinks xAK Gandara outside Trincomalee.

South Pacific
KB-2 launches against Suva successfully in the AM, but only gets one torpedo hit on an AK. Australia, Canberra, Perth, Leander, and Adelaide are all present and attacked for no results. Stupid pilots!

A secondary strike to the west sinks AVD McFarland and DM Breese with Vals. A tertiary strike hits DD Gridley with a bomb, which penetrates the deck and starts fires.

Woodlark is occupied.

KB-2 strikes Suva again in the afternoon, sinking AK Almaack (damaged earlier) and hitting Canberra and Australia with a torpedo each. CL Perth is hit with a bomb through the decks.

DD Talbot is sunk by Kates from KB-2. DDs Maury and Gridley are each hit with 2 more bombs. Gridley is likely to sink, while Maury is heavy fires.

SRA
Nells strike the port at Koepang, but it's empty.

KB-1 hits DD Peary with a penetrating bomb at Darwin, heavy fires/damage and she's likely down. CL Java is hit once with a bomb.

5 Hudons are shot down over Babar by leaky KB-1 CAP.

My DA at Tarakan fails with 1:2 odds.

My DA at Manila gets 1:1 and has slightly more IJA casualties this time... I decide I have to wait, and then an Allied shock attack comes in at 1:3 odds. 100+ Allied squads destroyed.

China
My 4th Ind. Mixed Brigade is kicked out of Nanning by a Chinese DA, thoroughly trashed. Minor to medium setback...

Other stuff
Canton AF goes to 7.

A mine explosion sound is heard this turn.

Something sinks after the night air phase. Hope it's TK Mobilgas. And at least one thing sinks at dusk, but I'm pretty sure I hear two distinct sound effects in the back-to-back damage control phases.

[Lokasenna]

February 16

I still got a Yokohama LI warning today, but resource levels are up 28k in Japan so it must just be a distribution lag time thing.

Subs
I-168 is hit at Canton Isl. by APD Waters. She'll have to go back to Truk and then a yard. Too bad... but before then, she hits xAK Modjekerto (a big one) and causes heavy damage. Then she strikes yet again, hitting AK Betelgeuse twice, also at Canton. Heavy damage and fires, but no sunk ship sound.

SRA
Usual bombings against Singers/PBang/Manila/Bataan.

3 xAKLs are sunk in Darwin harbor by Nells.

Fuso and Ise find 2 Dutch DDs on ASW patrol NW of Darwin. Ikazuchi takes 2 shell hits and is burning heavily, but she'll live. Both Dutch DDs are also on fire.

KB-1 strikes the Dutch DDs with Vals, both are heavy fires/damage now. They should be finished. Another Dutch DD is bombed by Kates in Darwin harbor. KB-1 strikes again in the afternoon, sinking a Dutch AS and likely an AM and DD Witte de With as well. 1 Val is lost to flak.

In the afternoon strike, I learn that CL Java is still disbanded in port. I think she's leaving pier side mode? Her decks are penetrated by a single 250kg bomb from a Val, but nothing serious.

South Pacific
Tanaka, onboard Kirishima with Ashigara and 4 DDs, sinks AM Cehvreuil outside Noumea in 0% moonlight, then fights 2 DDs (Craven, Patterson) in Noumea and Patterson takes a penetrating hit from Arashi but no other action. DM Preble is sunk afterwards by 5 quick hits from Kirishima. xAKL Vichy follows her to the bottom.

Tanaka finds the DDs again in thunderstorms outside Noumea, a couple hits on Craven and one more on Patterson, but still nothing serious.

Then they sink DM Tracy.

KB-2 sinks an AMc and big xAK Examiner in Suva harbor. CAs and CLs are nowhere in sight. They probably ran due south while I shifted E-SE, in which case I am not pursuing out of concern for fuel. In the afternoon, xAK Ruth Alexander goes down and xAK Cynthia Olson and DM Ramsay probably sink at dusk. DD Dent is burning mightily.

China
A 12:1 DA outside Sinyang makes the Chinese run again.

5 IJA armor units outside Nanyang trash a Chinese corps and make it run to the base. Nanyang is almost surrounded, except for a planned retreat corridor towards Chengchow.

A 166AV Chinese Corps moves into my stack outside of Yenan, across the river. 970 Chinese are disabled, but none destroyed in 1:148 odds.

[Lokasenna]

February 17

Solomons and S. Pacific
Landings at Lunga and Tulagi are unopposed, as expected.

KB-2 is safely to the NE of Suva, unspotted. I've decided to go pay a visit to what looks to be a busy Canton Island area. I hope my sub recon of the base is correct (9-10 ships in port or in TFs).

China
A DA outside of Yenan gets 21:1 odds, but doesn't make the Chinese retreat back across the river. Still, they're pretty torn up.

13 I-15s defend Changsha today. I think I need to stop the bombing and start sweeping; all I'm doing right now is XPing his pilots and only causing light damage on the ground.

Lusu War Area finally surrenders, just 3 hexes from Chengchow.

SRA
Manila finally surrenders. 11 units are destroyed, with over 2400 devices (according to the CR). Time to move the 48th back to Clark, hopefully in time to catch the movement dots from Bataan, and then on to Bataan itself.

KB-1 aircraft are put on ASW duty and they sight or attack no less than 4 subs in the hex that KB used to occupy the day before. I'll leave all the strike craft on ASW and move in for a last Darwin strike on the same day that 2 CAs/4 DDs arrive to bombard, on February 19. Then KB-1 will move over to cover the Oosthaven landings, though I'm not sure there is much left of the Dutch air force.

Other stuff
Wakkanai port expands to 4.

Kirishima gained 1 Day/4 Night Exp. Ashigara is up 2 Day Exp. Cool. This, plus the smaller craft sunk and the psy-ops aspect of raiding Noumea with surface forces, is worth the expenditure of supplies and fuel IMO.

3 more days before 2nd FA Rgt arrives at Johore, then 1-2 days to unpack and combine, and then 2-3 days to transit into Singapore... So not until Feb 25-27 or so. I'm OK with this. He can continue to eat supply there, and forts aren't being built.

The invasion of Oosthaven should occur at roughly the same time. The invasion TF is currently 11 days out, on cruise speed (88 hexes, speed 5/4). I've changed them to Full for at least one day. I want them to arrive and unload before the amphib bonus is possibly over on March 1.

[Lokasenna]

Given the pace of the game, I've decided to report out in groups of days of somewhat arbitrary length. We're up through February 27 now.

February 18-21

Subs
On the 19th, KVIII hits Shokaku with a single torpedo near Babar... F*. Damage is moderate, at 20/23(22)/2(1)/0. Not bad enough that I'm going to pull her out completely; KB1 will still cover the Oosthaven invasion in 9 days and then she'll go either to Singapore if I have it or Hong Kong to repair.

I-19 sinks 2 xAK's several hundred miles from of San Francisco.

I-21 attacks xAK Barwon on the surface outside of Pearl, but misses with all of the torpedoes and decides to submerge after hitting the transport with just one shell. Probably sacking this captain.

I-162 sinks an xAK with fuel on board between Addu and Colombo. No escorts.

South Pacific
Tulagi is occupied on the 17th, and Munda and Luganville follow on the 18th. An email from my opponent reveals that he wanted Luganville "but then you showed up".

KB2's strike doesn't go on the 18th...nor on the 19th...nor on the 20th...weather rolls, I guess? He didn't sight me after the 19th, so I decide to go for it on the 21st. Only 36 Zeroes and 9 Vals launch, facing 21 P-40E's over Canton. I shoot down 1 P-40, lose 2 Vals, and put 2 bombs into an xAP for heavy fires. No other strikes. I see another "mission cancelled due to weather" message in the PM phase. I give up. Though 10 Vals do go on to sink an xAK a couple of hexes away.

Tabiteuea is taken on the 20th.


DEI/SRA
Muntok's airfield reaches level 1. Basing some Oscars there for now.

Dili is taken on the 20th, with Pontianak and Kolaka as well.

Takao/Maya bombard Darwin on the 19th after coming up empty on active TFs in the area. According to FOW, 50 runway hits, 8 airbase, and 1 supply hit...destroying all of 1 Catalina on the ground. I guess it's acceptable, but not what I'd hoped for. KB1 strikes Darwin's port after this, getting some port hits and sinking an S-class fleet boat along with 2 electric boats ([:)]) and an old DD. More hits are recorded for heavy fires/damage on 2 more old DDs, CL Java, and AS Canopus. Something(s) sinks at dusk this day; I hope it's here.

PI
Due to the auto-occupy code, only Cagayan is left in Allied hands on Mindanao.

On Luzon, everything marched out of Bataan back to Clark Field? Was he hoping to catch me with very little left to defend here? Luckily I get the 48th Div back to CF from Manila just in time.

China
9 or 10 I-15s are shot down over Changsha on the 17th for no loss. This should shut down the air opposition in the theater for some time. I begin bombing the airfield here on the 20th in preparation for seeing how well I can suppress the forts with just a few Sentais of Lilys.

4010 Chinese surrender outside Yenan.

He's bottled up at Nanyang. Time to start the attrition. It shouldn't take long here in the open terrain. We have roughly even AV (~2500), but my troops are far better and supported by armor.

Burma
I've discovered that he's retreated back to Shwebo. I sent some Oscars to sweep, but lost 5 vs. 1 AVG airframe. Not worth it. I'll wait until I've got Zeroes in Rangoon, which will have to wait until I've got Singapore.

Other stuff
Ports Blair and Moresby forts reach 2.

Rangoon AF reaches 5, and Miri's reaches size 4.

[Lokasenna]

Neat, a double post. I'll put Feb 22-24 here soon.

[Lokasenna]

We're on March 4. I have a question.

I have A6M2-N factories in R&D, which has an arrival date of 4/42. However, they aren't showing up as blue in the R&D screen. Is this because it is 0% researched? I hope I don't end up waste supplies repairing them to upgrade them to A6M5 either on 3/31 or when they reach 30(0)...

Anybody know what gives?

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

Good question, I don't know why, bump for help?

[obvert]

Not sure why they're not blue, but it looks lie you've got a lot of A6M2-N research here. All of them are really low , and if you want them to build to 30 for the A6M5 you should have the extra factories added now. They repair roughly a factory a day in the month before research is finished, so you could still get many to 30 (0) (it looks lie five have enough built already). Are you adding a factory a day to pace it out?

Just make sure to check on the 1st of April and change them over right away and you'll be fine.

[Lokasenna]

Once I'd gotten a 1% in it, they turned blue. Must be a quirk of the UI code.

In any case, I'm only expanding them 1 point at a time because they'll repair faster as A6M2-N than they will as A6M5. Whatever is fully repaired on 3/31/42 will get switched to A6M5. Unless 1(29) repairs faster than 1(1)? Honestly, my R&D repairs seem to be going much slower in this game than against the AI, but I can't figure out if it's just perception due to not doing many turns in a row or if it's an actual difference between the games.

I'm a little annoyed that it took until 3/4 for that size 6 factory to repair, for example. If I'd increased it to 30, would it have repaired points faster? I've been waiting for these to get fully repaired before I add another point for 2 in-game months, which is what has caused me to suspect that 1(29) repairs faster than 1(1) or 1(9).

[Spidery]

As I understand it, the chance they will repair each day is by picking a random number in the range 1 to number of days left and seeing if it is less than or equal to the fully repaired size of the factory.

If you have 31 days left to go and expand a factory from size 1 to 2 then it has only a 2 in 31 chance of repairing a point that day. If you expand it to size 30 it is guaranteed to repair that day and every other day of the last month. I.e., you are much better off expanding them all to size 30 as long as there are enough days left to complete the repair.

Of course, I may be completely misunderstanding how this works.

[Spidery]

To extend my answer. Any size factory will, on average, repair from all broken to fully repaired in about 65% (can't remember the exact number) of the days until the aircraft is due from when it is expanded.

The limit of 30 is suggested because above that (and below 300) the research rate is the same [if you are certain that the factory will turn into production then a larger size than 30 can make sense but it needs to be selected as soon as the factory is expanded].

Always expand an aircraft R&D factory to the size you want it in one go. Note that the same does not apply to engine R&D factories which can be expanded at 1 per day or as supply is available; and there is little (no?) reason to expand beyond size 30 until the engine is in production.