Western Civilization in Grave Danger - AU Tiger (A) vs. Skyros (J)

[Bullwinkle58]

That's one of the best PT missions I've seen since they were nerfed in the first patch.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

That's one of the best PT missions I've seen since they were nerfed in the first patch.

Indeed, it beats the one I had recently as well. Pull them out, save the heroic crews!

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

31 January 1942
Bataan Begins


The twin KB’s have refueled and are hitting northern Australia now, which is a very fortuitous turn of events for the Allies; it is allowing supplies to be dumped into Sumatra as well as providing an opening to bring in more Hurricane squadrons, depending on how long the Japanese screw around with Australia.

I am not sure, but I think the Japanese are trying to catch the USN SBD’s on the ground in Darwin where they can be smashed. I have been flying them back and forth to Ambon where I have been trying to catch a Japanese TF by surprise. Unfortunately the only strike they flew was a partial one (5 planes due to weather) which unsuccessfully attacked the Shoho with 4 getting shot down by the CAP. If nothing else, this attack gave notice that aerial danger is in the region. With the KB’s bearing down I decided to send the Navy planes, two SBD squadrons, one TBD squadron, and a Buffalo squadron deeper into the DEI. They are currently ferrying from Balikpapan to Soerabaja.

This last turn the POW finally made it off map and is still enroute to Cape Town where the Repulse is currently residing. Like the Repulse, the easily repaired damage (SYS) will be done there and then will head to the Eastern US for full repairs. Given the POW’s allowable speed, I figure the journey will take 5 months. Does ship damage increase at full speed in off map movement?

Operation San Francisco is yet in its early phases and is taking baby steps towards amassing the forces required for this operation.

On the Jan. 30th turn the Allies fell for a sucker bet – it was noticed that one Japanese unit had moved to Bataan so a Deliberate attack was risked. I am sure you can guess the result:

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 60786 troops, 877 guns, 727 vehicles, Assault Value = 2112

Defending force 30965 troops, 322 guns, 269 vehicles, Assault Value = 836

Allied adjusted assault: 1513

Japanese adjusted defense: 2631

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1648 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 77 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 83 disabled
Guns lost 43 (1 destroyed, 42 disabled)
Vehicles lost 18 (1 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3117 casualties reported
Squads: 52 destroyed, 427 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 115 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 40 disabled
Guns lost 88 (7 destroyed, 81 disabled)
Vehicles lost 115 (57 destroyed, 58 disabled)


However badly this turned out for the Allies, the Japanese counterattack this last turn was worse:

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25348 troops, 318 guns, 184 vehicles, Assault Value = 720

Defending force 67904 troops, 935 guns, 791 vehicles, Assault Value = 1670

Japanese adjusted assault: 325

Allied adjusted defense: 1579

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 4)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4336 casualties reported
Squads: 48 destroyed, 98 disabled
Non Combat: 38 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 71 destroyed, 52 disabled
Guns lost 26 (10 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Vehicles lost 50 (45 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
426 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Vehicles lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)

The supply situation on Bataan is dire, and as soon as level 5 forts are reached, construction will likely cease. Supplies 6544 and forts 4 plus 91%

Singapore is still the scene of constant Oscar sweeps and bomber attacks that do little damage, and the Allied fighter attrition has been severe. All fighters have been withdrawn to Palembang to await the reinforcing Hurricane squadrons. Once they arrive and are re-constructed, all of these fighters will fly to Singapore to combat the Japanese Oscars on more equal terms. Meanwhile the AAA at Singapore is inflicting a high toll on the bomber streams.

Supplies 78066 Forts Level 4 plus 40%. 1385 AV. The Japanese have yet to cross into the hex, but I don’t think they have any idea of how much supply the Singapore defenders are sitting on. Keeping Singapore in beans and bullets is costing the Allies a lot of AKL’s from submarine attacks, and in fact 5 HDML’s are enroute from Rangoon to help with the submarine threat. These HDML’s stumbled across some Japanese barges running troops from Georgetown to the abandoned Langsa. These barges will be dealt with shortly, isolating the landed troops on Sumatra. They too will be dealt with in time.

In China the Japanese launched some initial attacks on Chinese strongpoints:

Ground combat at 86,41 (near Loyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25747 troops, 283 guns, 143 vehicles, Assault Value = 630

Defending force 23920 troops, 121 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 612

Japanese adjusted assault: 314

Allied adjusted defense: 355

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3493 casualties reported
Squads: 65 destroyed, 43 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 23 (4 destroyed, 19 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
559 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 26 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled





Ground combat at Sian (83,41)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 11182 troops, 103 guns, 154 vehicles, Assault Value = 484

Defending force 151927 troops, 813 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3823

Japanese adjusted assault: 36

Allied adjusted defense: 2321

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 64 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: op mode(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1254 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 136 disabled
Non Combat: 44 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Vehicles lost 121 (98 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
284 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 35 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled


Shortly after the Sian attack, the fort there went to level 4.

Operation xFecta will be launched soon, however due to recent events this operation has been reduced in scope, and in effectiveness, based on recon reports. However, based on these very same reports, the chance of mishap now is small.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: AU Tiger

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: AU Tiger

Question:

Approximately how fast will Japan run out of oil in this situation? The only major DEI source of oil he has captured is Miri.

Also, I fail to see the tactical sense in running the two KB's together at this stage of the war, especially knowing that one US CV has been sunk and two others at least damaged.

In Scenario 2, it's not that short of a time. He begins with a stockpile of ~100 days or so. He already has Miri, and I expect he'll have Balikpapan within a reasonable time? And Tarakan. Since BP and Tarakan are "self-sufficient", with refineries matching the oil amounts, between Miri and Samarinda he'll have approx. +250 oil centers per day. It's nowhere near what he needs long term, but it's enough that his position is not dire yet.

You've got a good start, but I think he could still turn it around on you if he uses his naval superiority (and air superiority in the DEI area) to support his ground ops, and at this point I think he's going to have to postpone Burma in order to bring the Imperial Guards and 33rd Divisions down to deal with Singers and Palembang.

The interesting thing is that he seems not to care about oil. It is kind of weird really.

And it is Scenario 1.

A long, long time ago Alfred did an analysis on oil/fuel aimed at determining time the Japanese had before they had to secure more or be in dire straits. The time for Scenario 2 was very long--more than a year. For Scenario 1 it is much, much less. Under six months as I recall. The big determining variable is fleet ops.

He needs PBang in Scenario 1 and he needs it yesterday. If you hold it to summer 1942 it might be a game winner.

[Bullwinkle58]

Damage can increase in off-map movement, yes. Usually flooding. I have never seen a ship sink off-map, but it might be possible. But I don't send them long distances with System damage over 50. I don't recall the POW's totals.

I'm not sure the off-map code sees a difference between Full and Mission. I'm pretty sure it sees a difference between Cruise and Mission, but who knows where the randoms start? It could be just a simple damage roll for off-map damage regardless of speed. Don't know. I do know that POW is not worth risking. When moving to UK or EC it will take over a month for a damaged BB moving from CT, and usually longer. Pay the price. The transit time is nothing compared to the time to fix large amounts of major float. POW is probably gone for a year. Just plan around that.

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: AU Tiger

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna




In Scenario 2, it's not that short of a time. He begins with a stockpile of ~100 days or so. He already has Miri, and I expect he'll have Balikpapan within a reasonable time? And Tarakan. Since BP and Tarakan are "self-sufficient", with refineries matching the oil amounts, between Miri and Samarinda he'll have approx. +250 oil centers per day. It's nowhere near what he needs long term, but it's enough that his position is not dire yet.

You've got a good start, but I think he could still turn it around on you if he uses his naval superiority (and air superiority in the DEI area) to support his ground ops, and at this point I think he's going to have to postpone Burma in order to bring the Imperial Guards and 33rd Divisions down to deal with Singers and Palembang.

The interesting thing is that he seems not to care about oil. It is kind of weird really.

And it is Scenario 1.

A long, long time ago Alfred did an analysis on oil/fuel aimed at determining time the Japanese had before they had to secure more or be in dire straits. The time for Scenario 2 was very long--more than a year. For Scenario 1 it is much, much less. Under six months as I recall. The big determining variable is fleet ops.

He needs PBang in Scenario 1 and he needs it yesterday. If you hold it to summer 1942 it might be a game winner.

A long, long time ago Alfred did an analysis on oil/fuel aimed at determining time the Japanese had before they had to secure more or be in dire straits. The time for Scenario 2 was very long--more than a year. For Scenario 1 it is much, much less. Under six months as I recall. The big determining variable is fleet ops.

He needs PBang in Scenario 1 and he needs it yesterday. If you hold it to summer 1942 it might be a game winner.

He has been running his fleets quite a bit, the BB's less so now that I have damaged a few. Palembang is going to be a problem for him, even if he did a mass mobilization on it starting now. I am starting to scavenge some Aviation Support from Batavia - I have more there than I need, and the fighter protection at Palembang will be getting a lot better soon.

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Damage can increase in off-map movement, yes. Usually flooding. I have never seen a ship sink off-map, but it might be possible. But I don't send them long distances with System damage over 50. I don't recall the POW's totals.

I'm not sure the off-map code sees a difference between Full and Mission. I'm pretty sure it sees a difference between Cruise and Mission, but who knows where the randoms start? It could be just a simple damage roll for off-map damage regardless of speed. Don't know. I do know that POW is not worth risking. When moving to UK or EC it will take over a month for a damaged BB moving from CT, and usually longer. Pay the price. The transit time is nothing compared to the time to fix large amounts of major float. POW is probably gone for a year. Just plan around that.

I was afraid of that. SYS damage on the POW is 19%, and even that low I watched the flooding damage fluctuate as the POW crawled across the map. I will get that fixed before it goes to the EC. I anticipate the POW being gone for longer because it is only moving at 4 kts. It will take forever to get there. C'est la guerre.

[Bullwinkle58]

You've got a little time, but be wary of stacking too much air at PBang and especially Singers. They just aren't capable of defending themselves once his Oscar lines really get on-track. He can sweep both every day with 50+ and make more. The danger there, especially PBang, is he knocks down your CAP fast, bombs the AF hard for two days, and all those bombers, TRs, and TBs are trapped to be turned into scrap at his leisure. In your era Japan can close even a major AF in 48 hours. Sometimes 24. Don't stack too high this early. TBs especially need to be nimble and mobile. They are precious.

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You've got a little time, but be wary of stacking too much air at PBang and especially Singers. They just aren't capable of defending themselves once his Oscar lines really get on-track. He can sweep both every day with 50+ and make more. The danger there, especially PBang, is he knocks down your CAP fast, bombs the AF hard for two days, and all those bombers, TRs, and TBs are trapped to be turned into scrap at his leisure. In your era Japan can close even a major AF in 48 hours. Sometimes 24. Don't stack too high this early. TBs especially need to be nimble and mobile. They are precious.

10-4

Thanks

I do have a ton of AAA at Palembang, that should help, don't you think?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: AU Tiger

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You've got a little time, but be wary of stacking too much air at PBang and especially Singers. They just aren't capable of defending themselves once his Oscar lines really get on-track. He can sweep both every day with 50+ and make more. The danger there, especially PBang, is he knocks down your CAP fast, bombs the AF hard for two days, and all those bombers, TRs, and TBs are trapped to be turned into scrap at his leisure. In your era Japan can close even a major AF in 48 hours. Sometimes 24. Don't stack too high this early. TBs especially need to be nimble and mobile. They are precious.

10-4

Thanks

I do have a ton of AAA at Palembang, that should help, don't you think?

AA helps a lot with bombers; see my AAR. It doesn't work on sweeps.

One thing you can do with TBs is let them live on Java, and only visit PBang for an in & out mission. Put the torpedo HQ at PBang, but stick the TBs at any of several bases on Java, out of sight. The Beests can drop-tank a good range, but can't carry weapons with a tank. The Albacores have excellent range all the time. When you see a naval threat near PBang just hop them in, arm them, fly, then run back to Java the next day. You might get caught with a major raid on PBang that turn, but it's a lower risk than sitting them on Sumatra every day.

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: AU Tiger

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

You've got a little time, but be wary of stacking too much air at PBang and especially Singers. They just aren't capable of defending themselves once his Oscar lines really get on-track. He can sweep both every day with 50+ and make more. The danger there, especially PBang, is he knocks down your CAP fast, bombs the AF hard for two days, and all those bombers, TRs, and TBs are trapped to be turned into scrap at his leisure. In your era Japan can close even a major AF in 48 hours. Sometimes 24. Don't stack too high this early. TBs especially need to be nimble and mobile. They are precious.

10-4

Thanks

I do have a ton of AAA at Palembang, that should help, don't you think?

AA helps a lot with bombers; see my AAR. It doesn't work on sweeps.

One thing you can do with TBs is let them live on Java, and only visit PBang for an in & out mission. Put the torpedo HQ at PBang, but stick the TBs at any of several bases on Java, out of sight. The Beests can drop-tank a good range, but can't carry weapons with a tank. The Albacores have excellent range all the time. When you see a naval threat near PBang just hop them in, arm them, fly, then run back to Java the next day. You might get caught with a major raid on PBang that turn, but it's a lower risk than sitting them on Sumatra every day.

Good idea. You can add TBD's to that list as well, they are in Java now.

[witpqs]

I have never seen a ship sink off-map...

I have, in the off-map portion of an on-map to off-map journey.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I have never seen a ship sink off-map...

I have, in the off-map portion of an on-map to off-map journey.

So it can happen. Good to know.

[topeverest]

Not sure why you would attack at Bataan. What possible use did you want to make?

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: topeverest

Not sure why you would attack at Bataan. What possible use did you want to make?

There was just one unit there, and hoping to draw to an inside straight I was hoping to catch a fraction of his force in the hex.

Lesson learned.

[geofflambert]

I'm probably missing something, but why do you want the PoW to go to the E US? Capetown's repair shipyard is plenty big enough and there's plenty of Naval support.

On another matter, you can probably see why I don't like carrier airgroups tangling with ground based air or attacking airfields any more than absolutely necessary as they are generally ineffective, causing mostly temporary damage, and the cost from flak losses alone is often unjustifiable. If there's a naval target too valuable to ignore do a port or naval attack, otherwise stand clear unless providing CAP protection for an amphib landing.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I'm probably missing something, but why do you want the PoW to go to the E US? Capetown's repair shipyard is plenty big enough and there's plenty of Naval support.

Go back and look at the damage. Unless there's main gun damage CT will fix everything, but very slowly. And you tie up CT's yard for a year or more. The transit time is better than the break-even on leaving her in Ct. A 300,000 ton yard like EC won't break a sweat putting her in the dock.

[topeverest]

so maybe your esteemed opponent really doesn't get you are doing FP. Why would he move the KB away if he knew ground strength at PB

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: topeverest

so maybe your esteemed opponent really doesn't get you are doing FP. Why would he move the KB away if he knew ground strength at PB

I will catch up on updates tomorrow, but he just hit FP with a big carrier strike, so I assume he knows what is going on there. I think his focus on OZ comes from the belief that I am basing my strength from there instead of the IO like I really am.

[geofflambert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I'm probably missing something, but why do you want the PoW to go to the E US? Capetown's repair shipyard is plenty big enough and there's plenty of Naval support.

Go back and look at the damage. Unless there's main gun damage CT will fix everything, but very slowly. And you tie up CT's yard for a year or more. The transit time is better than the break-even on leaving her in Ct. A 300,000 ton yard like EC won't break a sweat putting her in the dock.

Not disputing anything, I'm trying to learn here. I've never had a ship in drydock at CT before, but why would it be slower actually? If it's the only ship there and there's 300+ pts of Nav Support, how is the E US going to make up for the time it takes to get there? As far as tying up CT's yard, I would think they would appreciate the break from the monotony of having nothing to do.

[AU Tiger_MatrixForum]

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I'm probably missing something, but why do you want the PoW to go to the E US? Capetown's repair shipyard is plenty big enough and there's plenty of Naval support.

Go back and look at the damage. Unless there's main gun damage CT will fix everything, but very slowly. And you tie up CT's yard for a year or more. The transit time is better than the break-even on leaving her in Ct. A 300,000 ton yard like EC won't break a sweat putting her in the dock.

Not disputing anything, I'm trying to learn here. I've never had a ship in drydock at CT before, but why would it be slower actually? If it's the only ship there and there's 300+ pts of Nav Support, how is the E US going to make up for the time it takes to get there? As far as tying up CT's yard, I would think they would appreciate the break from the monotony of having nothing to do.

I am hardly a repair guru, but the number of repair points available makes a big difference. When I took the Sara to San Diego initially, the repair time was about six months, but when I took it to San Francisco for another estimate, the repair time was 80 days.